Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR] D Jaccob Slavin signs extension with the Hurricanes (8 years, $6.396M AAV; begins 2025-26, salary deferred to 9th year)

[HighLifeMan]

I think it's a fair deal. The player get's a massive amount of security getting paid until 39..

People won't go along with it but Mackenzie Weegar was probably the closest comparable here, and Slavin got two more years of term. I think it's a win for the player.

 

[dgibb10]

I think it's a fair deal. The player get's a massive amount of security getting paid until 39..

People won't go along with it but Mackenzie Weegar was probably the closest comparable here, and Slavin got two more years of term. I think it's a win for the player.

Weegar is like 2 tiers below but sure.

 

[dgibb10]

1. I'm not a hurricanes fan.
2. You have no idea what you're talking about. Slavin would have gotten a 9M contract as a UFA. The hurricanes just paid Orlov 7M, you don't think they would have given Slavin more if he demanded it?
3. It's very rare for players to take discounts, but Slavin is very clearly an exception.

I'd have given Slavin 10.5x7 in a heartbeat

Sure, why not? It's much easier to find a dime a dozen PP QB like Gostisbehere or DeAngelo than it is to find a Jaccob Slavin.

And it's not like Slavin can't QB a PP, they just prefer to save him for 5v5 and SH situations. When he did QB the PP more a few years ago, he was top 25 in on ice PP GF/60 among dmen, despite primarily anchoring the 2nd unit.

Yep, Slavvin is also very productive offensively. He ranked 22nd in the league in even strength points among dmen. So he's a number 1 dmen in terms of producing offense too. He just doesn't QB the power play so he doesn't get to rack up the points there.

 

[Derailed75]

What the actual f***

This is an absolute steal. Why would slavin agree to that. He could’ve easily gotten 8x8, I guess he wants to take a discount to win


Great deal

Could be that he likes the organization, loves living in the Raleigh area where he go for walks in the park or out to dinner and shopping without being mobbed by people yet still play in front of a full barn full of rabid fans. It could be that money isnt the biggest motivator in his life.

There actually a ton of valid reasons why someone would take a contract for less than what they could make elswhere.

 

[Fataldogg]

Lol no

Just shut down Mcdavid and lead the league with +56

McDavid scoring 10+ points in the finals isn't shutting him down.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yep, Slavvin is also very productive offensively. He ranked 22nd in the league in even strength points among dmen. So he's a number 1 dmen in terms of producing offense too. He just doesn't QB the power play so he doesn't get to rack up the points there.

Slavin’s has been the most reliable dmen I’ve seen with the puck on his stick, particularly as an outlet passer. He very rarely makes an outright turnover, and makes a lot of subtle little moves to keep the puck moving forward at speed, where most other defensemen would turn it over.

He does it very quietly, because he doesn’t rush the puck in an attention-grabbing way. He just uses his reach and strength to absorb the forecheck and place the puck where a teammate can pick it up at speed and advance it over the next line. But if you key in on him, you really do see that he’s out there negating the effectiveness of forechecks shift after shift. That’s why he picks up so many points off assists, jailbreaking a forecheck and setting up goals off the rush.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Weegar is like 2 tiers below but sure.

Weegar played ever so slightly more, produced slightly better, and had damn near identical underlaying numbers in all categories. He was the ideal comparable, hence the similarities in the final contract (8X6.25 vs 8x6.46)


Weegar's three years combined prior to his contract kicking in

5 on 5

CF - 58.56%
SF - 59.12%
GF% - 57.67%
xGF% - 57.76%
PDO - .997
OZs% - 50.65%
Pts/60 - 1.22
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:12

Slavin's last three years combined

CF - 59.23%
SF - 57.08%
GF% - 57.60%
xGF% - 58.97
PDO - 1.002
OZs% - 58.08%
Pts/60 - 1.15
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:08

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Good deal, wouldn't trade him for McDavid.

 

[dgibb10]

Weegar played ever so slightly more, produced slightly better, and had damn near identical underlaying numbers in all categories. He was the ideal comparable, hence the similarities in the final contract (8X6.25 vs 8x6.46)


Weegar's three years combined prior to his contract kicking in

5 on 5

CF - 58.56%
SF - 59.12%
GF% - 57.67%
xGF% - 57.76%
PDO - .997
OZs% - 50.65%
Pts/60 - 1.22
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:12

Slavin's last three years combined

CF - 59.23%
SF - 57.08%
GF% - 57.60%
xGF% - 58.97
PDO - 1.002
OZs% - 58.08%
Pts/60 - 1.15
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:08

And then you realize Slavin is quite a bit better 5v5, agruably the best penalty killer in hockey, oh and also is arguably (edit, it's not arguable in the slightest) the most disciplined defender in hockey.

13 penalties taken in the last 3 years

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Weegar played ever so slightly more, produced slightly better, and had damn near identical underlaying numbers in all categories. He was the ideal comparable, hence the similarities in the final contract (8X6.25 vs 8x6.46)


Weegar's three years combined prior to his contract kicking in

5 on 5

CF - 58.56%
SF - 59.12%
GF% - 57.67%
xGF% - 57.76%
PDO - .997
OZs% - 50.65%
Pts/60 - 1.22
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:12

Slavin's last three years combined

CF - 59.23%
SF - 57.08%
GF% - 57.60%
xGF% - 58.97
PDO - 1.002
OZs% - 58.08%
Pts/60 - 1.15
TOI/G (all situations) - 22:08

Weegar is nowhere close to Slavin

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Weegar is nowhere close to Slavin

Agreed. Even geographically they are pretty far away as well.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Slavin’s has been the most reliable dmen I’ve seen with the puck on his stick, particularly as an outlet passer. He very rarely makes an outright turnover, and makes a lot of subtle little moves to keep the puck moving forward at speed, where most other defensemen would turn it over.

He does it very quietly, because he doesn’t rush the puck in an attention-grabbing way. He just uses his reach and strength to absorb the forecheck and place the puck where a teammate can pick it up at speed and advance it over the next line. But if you key in on him, you really do see that he’s out there negating the effectiveness of forechecks shift after shift. That’s why he picks up so many points off assists, jailbreaking a forecheck and setting up goals off the rush.

His ability to strip the attacking player of the puck and move it the other direction is fantastic. He's so aware of every player on the ice that he's able to make a breakout pass with zero hesitation.

 

[emptyNedder]

agruably the best penalty killer in hockey

Slavin just signed a great contract. He is a top-notch defender. On the PK he had one of the best GA/60 in the league at 5.6.

However, he was arguably not the best penalty killer on his team. Pesce's GA/60 on the PK was 4.4

Every year but one since they joined the league Pesce has had as good or better G/A 60 on the PK. For at least the last three years Pesce/Skjei have been first on the ice on the PK, so the opposing team was already in the O zone and had their best PP lineup.

According to Hockey-Reference Pesce's career oiGA/60 on the PK is 6.6. Slavin's is 7.3.

I find this to be one of the best examples of availability bias in any sport. Slavin makes amazing plays that look amazing. Pesce makes few, but from an outcome perspective Pesce is the better penalty killer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Slavin just signed a great contract. He is a top-notch defender. On the PK he had one of the best GA/60 in the league at 5.6.

However, he was arguably not the best penalty killer on his team. Pesce's GA/60 on the PK was 4.4

Every year but one since they joined the league Pesce has had as good or better G/A 60 on the PK. For at least the last three years Pesce/Skjei have been first on the ice on the PK, so the opposing team was already in the O zone and had their best PP lineup.

According to Hockey-Reference Pesce's career oiGA/60 on the PK is 6.6. Slavin's is 7.3.

I find this to be one of the best examples of availability bias in any sport. Slavin makes amazing plays that look amazing. Pesce makes few, but from an outcome perspective Pesce is the better penalty killer.

I’ve watched these guys side-by-side their entire careers.

Slavin is a significantly better player than Pesce regardless of the situation. At Pesce’s absolute peak he at least made it close, but that peak was over a while ago. If the numbers say otherwise, question the numbers.

 

[dgibb10]

Slavin just signed a great contract. He is a top-notch defender. On the PK he had one of the best GA/60 in the league at 5.6.

However, he was arguably not the best penalty killer on his team. Pesce's GA/60 on the PK was 4.4

Every year but one since they joined the league Pesce has had as good or better G/A 60 on the PK. For at least the last three years Pesce/Skjei have been first on the ice on the PK, so the opposing team was already in the O zone and had their best PP lineup.

According to Hockey-Reference Pesce's career oiGA/60 on the PK is 6.6. Slavin's is 7.3.

I find this to be one of the best examples of availability bias in any sport. Slavin makes amazing plays that look amazing. Pesce makes few, but from an outcome perspective Pesce is the better penalty killer.

As someone who's a fan of the team who just acquired Pesce, I'd love to agree with you there. But I can't.

Slavin over the last 3 years has a better xGoal/60 against, (6.26 vs 6.81), and a better actual goal differential (-3.76/60 vs -4.02/60 for Pesce).

 

[emptyNedder]

If the numbers say otherwise, question the numbers.

I find it hard to question numbers that are repeated for several years?

So the numbers are biased?
At some point the numbers are the answer--many who watched the SCF say the Oilers were better regardless of the situation. Still, the Cup was awarded to Florida.

As someone who's a fan of the team who just acquired Pesce, I'd love to agree with you there. But I can't.

Slavin over the last 3 years has a better xGoal/60 against, (6.26 vs 6.81), and a better actual goal differential (-3.76/60 vs -4.02/60 for Pesce).

At some point XG on the PK isn't as reliable as OiGA/60. Because the game is decided by actual goals not expected goals.

 

[dgibb10]

I find it hard to question numbers that are repeated for several years?

So the numbers are biased?
At some point the numbers are the answer--many who watched the SCF say the Oilers were better regardless of the situation. Still, the Cup was awarded to Florida.


At some point XG on the PK isn't as reliable as OiGA/60. Because the game is decided by actual goals not expected goals.

Did you miss the part where Slavin has a better PK goal differential than Pesce.

 

[emptyNedder]

Did you miss the part where Slavin has a better PK goal differential than Pesce.

I did not. That might reinforce the part about Pesce facing the best PP opponents. The Canes have been decent at scoring short-handed (Slavin himself had 2), but most of those come with one (or both) of Aho/Teraveinen on the ice, They are specifically used after the puck is cleared to create havoc as the other team tries to enter the zone.

The consensus view is that Carolina is good at analytics and RBA requires defensive accountability. So why would Pesce be first over the boards if Slavin is demonstrably better?

 

[dgibb10]

I did not. That might reinforce the part about Pesce facing the best PP opponents. The Canes have been decent at scoring short-handed (Slavin himself had 2), but most of those come with one (or both) of Aho/Teraveinen on the ice, They are specifically used after the puck is cleared to create havoc as the other team tries to enter the zone.

The consensus view is that Carolina is good at analytics and RBA requires defensive accountability. So why would Pesce be first over the boards if Slavin is demonstrably better?

That "who does the coach trust more" logic would hold up if Slavin didn't have 660 PK minutes in 235 games over the last 3 years to Pesce's 553 in 221 games.

 

[the_fan]

That is a great contract for probably the best defensive defenseman in the league.

I thought that was Darnell Nurse?

 

[Skolman]

Lol no

Just shut down Mcdavid and lead the league with +56

I thought you guys were saying Barkov shut down McDavid? Or was it Forsling now?

By "shutting him down", that's still 11 points in 7 games, while Bob stood on his head in games 1 & 7, especially game 1.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I did not. That might reinforce the part about Pesce facing the best PP opponents. The Canes have been decent at scoring short-handed (Slavin himself had 2), but most of those come with one (or both) of Aho/Teraveinen on the ice, They are specifically used after the puck is cleared to create havoc as the other team tries to enter the zone.

The consensus view is that Carolina is good at analytics and RBA requires defensive accountability. So why would Pesce be first over the boards if Slavin is demonstrably better?

Counterpoints:

Last 3 years combined:
Slavin: 2:51 TOI/GP on the PK
Pesce: 2:31 TOI/GP on the PK

If the consensus view is that Carolina is good at analytics and RBA requires defensive account ability, then why is Rod playing Slavin more minutes on the PK than Pesce?

Secondly, it's about the pairing. Slavin's most common defensive partner on the PK is Burns, who is not as strong defensively as Pesce's partner Skjei, who is solid defensively.

Third, Over the past 3 seasons combined, Slavin has played 265 min on the PK with Staal. Pesce has played 257 minutes with Staal on the PK. So if Staal is the best PK forward against the toughest competition, how come Slavin has as much time as Pesce does with him. Sure, injuries come into play but it's not like Pesce is getting all the tough assignments with Staal.

Fourth, why did Carolina, who is analytically driven, sign an older Slavin to a long term deal and let Pesce go? (ok, I know this last one is a stretch).

 

[bleedgreen]

I never knew the numbers or really gave it much thought, but I consider them equal penalty killers. To me they separated the two to give the Canes depth overall and on the kill, and Slavin gets the nod because he does have the edge overall as a dman. There was an earned hierarchy there, but if I had to choose one of them to go out and kill a penalty I would choose whichever side I needed (righty or lefty) over thinking one would be better at it.

Skjei was a hot mess when he came to us, he learned a lot about being solid defensively from being with Pesce. Slavin has his hands full next year.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Good cap hit, too much years IMO

 

[emptyNedder]

That "who does the coach trust more" logic would hold up if Slavin didn't have 660 PK minutes in 235 games over the last 3 years to Pesce's 553 in 221 games.

Using Natural Stat Trick for 2021/22 - 2023/24


GA Pesce 46; on ice GA/60 =4.95
GA Slavin 58: on ice GA/60 = 5.15
GA - GF Pesce 38; on ice differential/60 = -3.85
GA - GF Slavin 45; on ice differential/60 = -3.99

Admittedly not a lot to separate them. But given the tougher competition faced by Pesce, the actual results don't support a Slavin is "clearly" superior argument.

I started my original post acknowledging Slavin is an elite defender. Not sure why others get so "defensive" about the results indicating another defender is as good or ever so slightly better at one aspect of defending.