Proposal: CAR - CGY Blockbuster

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The only line of logic which dictates that "Hamilton >>>> Skinner" is that Defenseman are worth way more than wingers in today's NHL. That same logic would also dictate that Faulk is worth more than Gaudreau. Can't have it both ways.

I see a lot of complaining about underrating Gaudreau in this thread (which he is being underrated). However, 24 year old, 30-goal scoring Skinner is also being highly underrated here by Calgary fans.

Maybe if he wasn't a midget whose brains are now mashed potatoes he'd have work value. Let's be reality here, the guy is probably going to concuss himself the next time he tries to sign an autograph. Kid should've stuck with figure skating.
 

CraigsList

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Faulk is the best player in this trade, but Calgary loses 2 great players. No thanks.

Faulk
Gaudreau

Hamilton

Skinner
 

belair

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Yeah and he's arguably a better shot suppressor than the year-older Faulk too.
1rwf4Q7.png

Shot suppression is easier when your match-ups are easier.

There's a difference between a top pairing and a top-4 defenseman.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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Shot suppression is easier when your match-ups are easier.

There's a difference between a top pairing and a top-4 defenseman.

Yep, data without context, is well, just data.

29nb85z.png


I'm not saying Faulk is "great" defensively, but he faces much tougher assignments than Hamilton, plays > 4 min/game TOI more than Hamilton (including 2min/game ES and 1.5min/game SH more than Hamilton), and is a much better possession player. Tougher assignments and more TOI/G have an effect on shot suppression. On top of that, Faulk's 2016 data includes the last 10 games he played while not recovered (and after missing almost 20 games) and frankly, a shell of his healthy self (it was reported in mid-late July that he still hadn't recovered from the injury).

This proposal is silly to begin with and not started by a fan of either team, so I won't get into the pissing contest and recognize that there is NO chance Calgary trades Gaudreau, I'm just adding context to the hero chart provided.
 
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blankall

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The only line of logic which dictates that "Hamilton >>>> Skinner" is that Defenseman are worth way more than wingers in today's NHL. That same logic would also dictate that Faulk is worth more than Gaudreau. Can't have it both ways.

I see a lot of complaining about underrating Gaudreau in this thread (which he is being underrated). However, 24 year old, 30-goal scoring Skinner is also being highly underrated here by Calgary fans.

Also... Many lolz about Faulk being "sheltered". Pretty clear you haven't watched many Hurricanes games. Faulk might be the most un-sheltered player in the league. He gets tough assignments piled on him with Ron "Definitely not a 1st pairing D" Hainsey playing next to him.

Last year Skinner had 31 points and 18 goals. You have no idea what you're getting with Skinner each season.

He is not in the same conversation as the other 3 players being discussed here.
 

blankall

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Obviously his 2014-2015 stats...

I guess I was a bit ambiguous about the word "last". The new season has not started yet, and I was using the 2015/16 season as my reference point for this season.....I don't know why it was so difficult to look up Skinner's stats and match the point total to the season.
 

GoldiFox

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Apr 21, 2014
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Last year Skinner had 31 points and 18 goals. You have no idea what you're getting with Skinner each season.

He is not in the same conversation as the other 3 players being discussed here.

And the season before that he had 33 goals. Any 24 year old proven 30 goal scorer belongs in a conversation about Hamilton, who was traded for a mid-1st and a couple 2nds only a year ago.

I'll take my chances on believing that Skinner had a down year while playing on a team that was an offensive dumpster fire. Skinner was, by far, the Canes most dangerous offensive threat last year.
 

InfinityIggy

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I view Gaudreau/Faulk as a wash. Gaudreau is top 5 in his position, Faulk top 20 in his. Defence is the more valuable position but Gaudreau is approaching 'elite' in his.

I think Hamilton holds a lot more value than Skinner does at the moment. Skinner is a great talent but you can't ignore his injury history when its something as significant as concussions.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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I guess I was a bit ambiguous about the word "last". The new season has not started yet, and I was using the 2015/16 season as my reference point for this season.....I don't know why it was so difficult to look up Skinner's stats and match the point total to the season.

Maybe because you were cherry picking 1 season out of his 6 to try to make your point? :dunno:

Skinner has been in the league 6 years and has had:

Year 1: 31G
Year 2: 20G (64 games so a 26G pace)
Year 3: 13G (42 game strike shortened season, so a 25G pace)
Year 4: 33G (71 games so a 38G pace)
Year 5: 18G
Year 6: 28G

He's a 24 year old that has scored at a 25-38G pace for every season but 1 in his NHL career. For his career, he averages 28G for an 82game pace for his 6 year career, which is consistent with what he had this past season. On top of that, his numbers this past season (28G) came on a team that was one of the worst scoring team in the league. Heck, even in his WORST NHL season, he still had 18 goals.

I'm not talking value here, and if you want to state that he's not in the same league as these others, that's fine. But if you want to characterize a player, you should be doing it by looking at his full body of work, not cherry picking his worst season out of 6, which wasn't even this past season.
 

OvermanKingGainer

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Quite honestly I think it's ridiculous to compare Skinner and Hamilton. Hamilton has more points in less games over the last two seasons playing defense than Skinner does the last two seasons playing forward. It would be like claiming Joe Pavelski is in the same conversation as Erik Karlsson.

Yep, data without context, is well, just data.

29nb85z.png

And so you proceed to post a picture missing some significant context. Specifically

-Difference between team possession (using CorsiOn instead of CorsiRel)

vSm1oQO.png


-Difference between teammate possession (Quality of Teammate)

qisroKW.png


...That's some pretty significant contextual data to be removing just like that while making a case that one player is seeing tougher context.

I'm not saying Faulk is "great" defensively

...And I am not saying Hamilton is "great" defensively either for what it's worth. I am saying the two are comparable though.

but he faces much tougher assignments than Hamilton,

Much tougher? He did face tougher competition last season, yes but Hamilton was still playing a top 4 role and without any artificial offensive zone push. The difference between top pair and middle pair competition still has a ton of overlap.

And Faulk also did not face significantly tougher competition the season prior (which is 33% of a hero chart):

tUv5yqs.png


or the season prior either (which is an additional 22% of a hero chart). Forgive me if I don't buy that Hamilton suddenly lost his ability to face higher competition levels. And again, all of this comparing assumes Hamilton and Faulk are the same age, when Hamilton is a full year younger and should logically be behind developmentally.

Faulk is a good top pairing defenseman, but there are still red flags to him. They are not as clear on a team like Carolina which has a 5-on-5 shot suppression (CA60) of 50.85 with him off the ice(54.22 on), but might start to reveal themselves as legitimate warts on a team like Calgary who had a 57.10 shot suppression with Hamilton off the ice (59.84 on). Teams that as a team see less chances against inherently shelter the player from looking bad as often.

It takes five skaters, a coach, and even a goalie to influence visual perception of an individual. The HERO chart posted earlier does already suggest that a small context difference between Hamilton and Faulk exists. That does not mean all contextual elements are in Faulk's favour though and the findings of the chart ultimately show the players are closer together than apart. It also did not help that Hamilton was anchored down by the likes of Kris Russell and Jyrki Jokipakka, bottom pairing guys, while Faulk was paired with Hainsey, who may not be a top pairing guy but is definitely a middle pair guy, whereas Russell's effect on possession more closely resembles an AHLer:

nlpCKgC.png


Either you don't use any data at all to compare, or you use as much data available within reason to compare. The former then becomes a guessing game unless you've, without bias, watched equal and sufficient amounts of both players. Using as much data as possible does not favour Faulk to any significant degree. It does not prove one player has any significant edge in ability compared to the other.

plays > 4 min/game TOI more than Hamilton (including 2min/game ES and 1.5min/game SH more than Hamilton)

Which is true, but is also affected by roster makeup as Calgary has a top pair that too would drop Faulk to second pairing status.

and is a much better possession player.

That one is simply not true.

Tougher assignments and more TOI/G have an effect on shot suppression.

Just as Teammates and systems do.

On top of that, Faulk's 2016 data includes the last 10 games he played while not recovered (and after missing almost 20 games) and frankly, a shell of his healthy self (it was reported in mid-late July that he still hadn't recovered from the injury).

And Hamilton's 2016 data includes the first 15-20 games he played while learning a new system under a new coach with new linemates and frankly, was a shell of his usual self.

I'm just adding context to the hero chart provided.

And I am just amending the so-called context for accuracy.
 
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Blueline Bomber

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This topic is hilarious. The premise is ridiculous in and of itself. Neither team would touch the deal with a 10-foot pole. But what makes this topic really great is the Flames fans that complain about how underrated Gaudreau is, while in the same breath, tear down Skinner or compare Faulk to Hamilton.

It's like the irony is lost to them.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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...And I am not saying Hamilton is "great" defensively either for what it's worth. I am saying the two are comparable though.

Much tougher? He did face tougher competition last season, yes

Thing is, that's the exact context I was stating? He faced tougher competition last year, period. Your own charts you added don't say otherwise. I didn't mis-lead or leave anything out, that was the point I was making and your own charts say the same thing.

Either you don't use any data at all to compare, or you use as much data available within reason to compare

Yet, your initial post using 1 hero chart used tried to use 1 simple chart (without context) to do just that. ;)

In terms of the rest of what you wrote, I agree, there are a lot of different variables that can and DO affect metrics, which is my whole point. For instance, Faulk had Hainsey for a partner but faced stronger competition. In prior years, Hamiltion faced stronger competition, but "I believe" had Chara as a partner? (who even at his advanced age was miles better than Hainsey). Hamilton had a crappy partner this year. Faulk has always been the #1 guy on his team, Hamilton has never had to be. The two teams play different styles of games, etc..

Because of that, stats are a very useful tool, but never can tell the whole story. Particularly because they are done in a bit of a vacuum as well (in terms of team needs, dynamics, etc..)

And I am just amending the so-called context for accuracy.

Not really, the context was: Faulk went against tougher competition last year. That still holds.

If you feel Hamilton is close to Faulk in value, that's fine and I'm not going to argue with it. At the end of the day, these value discussions are part metrics, part "eye-test", part bias and part personal opinions. Again, my post only was saying that looking strictly at a hero chart to draw a conclusion without any additional context is a bit misleading. I'm purposely avoiding any "value" discussions because it's fruitless.
 

SmellOfVictory

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Jun 3, 2011
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The only line of logic which dictates that "Hamilton >>>> Skinner" is that Defenseman are worth way more than wingers in today's NHL. That same logic would also dictate that Faulk is worth more than Gaudreau. Can't have it both ways.

I see a lot of complaining about underrating Gaudreau in this thread (which he is being underrated). However, 24 year old, 30-goal scoring Skinner is also being highly underrated here by Calgary fans.

Also... Many lolz about Faulk being "sheltered". Pretty clear you haven't watched many Hurricanes games. Faulk might be the most un-sheltered player in the league. He gets tough assignments piled on him with Ron "Definitely not a 1st pairing D" Hainsey playing next to him.

Skinner averages about 50 points a season; Hamilton averages about 40 as a dman. Which is harder to find, a 50 point winger or a 40 point dman?
 

SmellOfVictory

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Jun 3, 2011
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This topic is hilarious. The premise is ridiculous in and of itself. Neither team would touch the deal with a 10-foot pole. But what makes this topic really great is the Flames fans that complain about how underrated Gaudreau is, while in the same breath, tear down Skinner or compare Faulk to Hamilton.

It's like the irony is lost to them.

It's only ironic if it's an apt comparison. Is Faulk significantly better than Hamilton? Statistically he's not (he may be better, but not substantially), so all we have to compare the two is the opinions of people who generally watch either one or the other, but not both (and also people who are far from NHL scouting material).

Is Gaudreau significantly better than Skinner? That's an obvious yes. And as to Hamilton vs Skinner, again, statistically Hamilton looks like the better player. Not to mention any player with a concussion history as strong as Skinner's is concerning.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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Skinner averages about 50 points a season; Hamilton averages about 40 as a dman. Which is harder to find, a 50 point winger or a 40 point dman?

You could look at it that way, or you could look at it this way:

Jeff Skinner has averaged 28G / 82G pace for his 6 year NHL career (and had 28 this past year). Dougie Hamilton has average 40 points / 82G pace for his 4 year NHL career.

This past season, there were only 22 Wingers in the NHL that had 28 goals or more. This past season, there were 26 defensemen who scored 40 points or more. So I'd say it's just as hard to find a 28G winger as it is to find a 40 point Defenseman, no?

Points are nice to look at, but that is VERY team dependent. Canes were one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL the past few years so kinda hard to get assists when nobody, except Skinner, can really score.
 

OvermanKingGainer

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Thing is, that's the exact context I was stating? He faced tougher competition last year, period. Your own charts you added don't say otherwise. I didn't mis-lead or leave anything out, that was the point I was making and your own charts say the same thing.

A Hero chart uses a three season sample, your chart uses only one.

Teammate quality has as much or more effect on possession as competition quality. Your chart ignores that.

When not comparing across the same team CorsiRel not CorsiOn should be used. Your chart suggest Faulk's higher raw possesion stats mean he has higher possession driving ability.

All things that make your use of "context" misleading.

Yet, your initial post using 1 hero chart used tried to use 1 simple chart (without context) to do just that. ;)

The chart does provide context though.The line of text right underneath the player's name. Which btw is no less context than what you provided.
 
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tarheelhockey

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Points are nice to look at, but that is VERY team dependent. Canes were one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL the past few years so kinda hard to get assists when nobody, except Skinner, can really score.

To flesh out that thought a bit more -- the main reason Skinner struggled 2 seasons ago was that he was a "finisher" playing with no set-up man. The Canes board spent a LOT of time talking about his tendency to try and skate right through the jaws of the opposing defense, which was happening largely because he was usually the only guy on his line capable of making a play with the puck in the neutral zone. His most common linemates were Elias Lindholm in his underwhelming sophomore season, Eric Stacavalier, and Riley Nash.

As we all know, at the NHL level there are only a few guys who can consistently score on solo rushes over the long term; the rest get figured out of after a couple of seasons and have to adjust their game (which Skinner did last season). But that transition requires a learning curve, which happened in 2014-15.

Put Skinner on a line with an actual playmaker and you'd have seen VERY different statistical results. Maybe not a better player as of August 2016, because he'd probably still be a less complete player -- but the numbers would have been prettier.
 

RodTheBawd

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Skinner just came off of the best season of his career. Those of us that actually watch the team understand that what happened in 14-15 was a reflection of the state of the team and not what the kid is capable of. I also don't give a **** to defend him to some western Canadians that look at nothing more than a box score. He's a young, scoring winger who is looking more complete and dangerous than he ever has, and I'm happy to have him (along with our 24 year old #1 RHD that is highly respected across the league). Gaudreau is worth the price of admission and Hamilton is a good young guy as well. The value is pretty close when ignoring team needs/depth, but unfortunately you can't do that.
 

SmellOfVictory

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Jun 3, 2011
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You could look at it that way, or you could look at it this way:

Jeff Skinner has averaged 28G / 82G pace for his 6 year NHL career (and had 28 this past year). Dougie Hamilton has average 40 points / 82G pace for his 4 year NHL career.

This past season, there were only 22 Wingers in the NHL that had 28 goals or more. This past season, there were 26 defensemen who scored 40 points or more. So I'd say it's just as hard to find a 28G winger as it is to find a 40 point Defenseman, no?

Points are nice to look at, but that is VERY team dependent. Canes were one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL the past few years so kinda hard to get assists when nobody, except Skinner, can really score.

That is a solid argument.
 

BBKers

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Jan 9, 2006
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Calgary wins the trade proposed by the OP IMO. Otoh with an add it can even out. Nice reasoning by Canes fans on Skinner though. Deal is never gonna happen but interesting idea nonetheless
 

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