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Prospect Info: - Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22 | Page 54 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22

These models flowing around showing us Leonard was crushingly bad pick for 8th, and that pretty much every scout and forecast of the draft was wrong. Also this Musty guy and Cristall have already proven by the charts they should have been top 10 picks in a redraft. And they had to play zero games between. But i mean, there is a chart that says bust and some other stuff too so it has to be relevant. I bet they used some x rated values too.

But tbh i do think people here are getting a bit overhyped with Miro. He has potential for sure, but he really havent seen that much of hockey for the last couple years. I dont know what to expect at this point.
 
twabby said:
Click to expand...

Pick224 updated their 2023 stats.

Andrew Cristall one of the 5 players to crack the P1/E60 threshold:
Connor Bedard - 4.9861
Gabe Perreault - 4.5668
Will Smith - 4.4377
Andrew Cristall - 4.3971
Zach Benson - 4.2508

Anything above 4 is usually a pretty safe non-bust meter, unless you have a fatal flaw for NHL-level or injuries hit you hard.

Steal.
 
Carlzner said:
It’s hard to take your analytics schtick seriously when you just pull random graphs and admit you don’t know a thing about the model, purely because they support your firmly rooted beliefs.
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1689770783532.jpeg
 
Roshi said:
These models flowing around showing us Leonard was crushingly bad pick for 8th, and that pretty much every scout and forecast of the draft was wrong. Also this Musty guy and Cristall have already proven by the charts they should have been top 10 picks in a redraft. And they had to play zero games between. But i mean, there is a chart that says bust and some other stuff too so it has to be relevant. I bet they used some x rated values too.

But tbh i do think people here are getting a bit overhyped with Miro. He has potential for sure, but he really havent seen that much of hockey for the last couple years. I dont know what to expect at this point.
Click to expand...

Did any model say Leonard was a crushingly bad pick? Leonard was a pretty reasonable #8 overall pick according to pretty much every model I saw, even if they preferred guys like Benson, Dovorsky, and Perreault above him. Leonard wasn’t that far behind those guys.
 
Last edited:
JayBeagleFanAccount said:
still cant believe we passed on benson and moore to take leonard man lmfao
Click to expand...
This was outrageous, why? I didn’t see maybe ANY mock drafts that had those 2 over Leonard. Like Zero. None.

Yet it’s hilarious that we also had Leonard ranked higher?

Sounds like you just want/like/need to pick at the team.
 
HTFN said:
Holy shit that's a bad model. The Miro projection broke that hard, right away, and if it can't account for that there's nothing to really take from it that isn't just picking and choosing.
Click to expand...

I must admit I don’t get this line of thinking. Miroshnichenko’s circumstances regarding his health are pretty exceptional. So if the model is wrong about him (which it might not be), does it really invalidate it when projecting players whose circumstances are more normal?
 
twabby said:
I must admit I don’t get this line of thinking. Miroshnichenko’s circumstances regarding his health are pretty exceptional. So if the model is wrong about him (which it might not be), does it really invalidate it when projecting players whose circumstances are more normal?
Click to expand...
Miro’s an exceptional case, but he’s emblematic of the issue all these prospect models have that when all you’re building a model from is boxcar stats you’re missing a ton of crucial context. Cancer’s rare, but of players will have significant injuries that reduce their production while they get back up to speed. Traditional scouting can account for that but the models can’t. Traditional scouts will know which players were passengers to better teammates and which ones were being asked to carry their own line to spread out the scoring, who got sheltered vs shutdown minutes, who got PP/PK time, who floats at the perimeter vs crashing the net, who raised their game against better opponents and who feasted against the bottom feeders. The NHL models can at least try to account for some of that stuff, but these prospect models have no choice but to ignore it. Models are only as good as the data you build them from, and there’s just very little data to work from for prospects.
 
twabby said:
I must admit I don’t get this line of thinking. Miroshnichenko’s circumstances regarding his health are pretty exceptional. So if the model is wrong about him (which it might not be), does it really invalidate it when projecting players whose circumstances are more normal?
Click to expand...
Well, first of all, my main issue with Miro's results is how significantly imbalanced the bust potential is with the other outcomes (and how evenly spread the other outcomes are). You're talking about a guy who got picked in the first round even knowing the diagnosis, and who was a hot pick for the top 5/10 if health hadn't been an issue. To me that says the model is already imbalanced against injured players, possibly doesn't know what to do with rate stats from other leagues, and seems really heavily weighted towards the last year (which circles back to the injured player thing). It makes me question how they balance low TOI in a men's league vs. a higher role in junior hockey. It took a player recovering from cancer treatment, unable to really pack on mass, measured him over 3 leagues including the top men's league in the country (provided the data included this year) and spit out numbers that said "nah son, that guy's busted".


NHL players are hardly "plug and chug" into the calculator guys as adults, there's not a public facing model on the planet that is good enough to nail prospects and there is no "normal circumstance", so when your irregular circumstances look completely wacky that's probably one of the easiest ways to conclude the model needs a lot of work.

Not saying there aren't draft surprises every year but I don't think the whole league whiffed on two top 10 picks any more than I think Miroshnichenko is 90% bust and as likely to play on the 4th line as the 1st. Lots of screwy stuff there. Actually, to be fair, I'd say it's more likely the whiff thing is true but not based on those particular graphs.
 
Kalopsia said:
It says on the images the data is from Elite Prospects so it’s gonna just be more of the same - a model built off league adjusted point totals with absolutely no other context. Don’t read too much into it.
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Yeah, I was just pointing out the obvious lols at this model. Nothing to see there imo.
 
Langway said:

Maestro.
www.flohockey.tv

U.S. World Junior Summer Showcase Camp: Team USA Split Rosters, Analysis - FloHockey

USA Hockey revealed the split-squad rosters for the 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase, a major evaluation event for the 2024 World Junior Championship.
www.flohockey.tv www.flohockey.tv
Leonard will not be on a line with Smith & Perreault it seems in the upcoming WJSS.
Click to expand...

Bedard's IQ is just ridiculous. That guy's gonna be trouble. I like how roller hockey is just slightly less responsive in the skating area, makes the hands and IQ shine a little more.
 
Not thrilled the Caps have filled their Hershey roster with retreads and career minor leaguers, thus likely denying an open spot for Suzdalev this season.
 
ClevelandCapsfan said:
Not thrilled the Caps have filled their Hershey roster with retreads and career minor leaguers, thus likely denying an open spot for Suzdalev this season.
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in all fairness, of the lineup of
Vecchione-Sgarbossa-Frank
Snively-Limoges-Phillips
Miroshnichenko-Lapierre-Dube
Hofer-Sutter-Rybinski

I’m not sure who Suzdalev would replace that doesn’t place him in a 4th line role (I guess they could’ve not signed Limoges? idk)
 
Rayquaza64 said:
in all fairness, of the lineup of
Vecchione-Sgarbossa-Frank
Snively-Limoges-Phillips
Miroshnichenko-Lapierre-Dube
Hofer-Sutter-Rybinski

I’m not sure who Suzdalev would replace that doesn’t place him in a 4th line role (I guess they could’ve not signed Limoges? idk)
Click to expand...

Isn't Sgarbossa like 30? Trade him to a team that needs experience, and let Suzy play against men. He's got very interesting potential with size and skill.
 
Suzdalev could also end up going on loan to the SHL, as the reason he came over to NA to play with Regina was because of his SHL club keeping him in the HV71, I think the caps get him to play against better competition than the whl one way or another
 
Rayquaza64 said:
Suzdalev could also end up going on loan to the SHL, as the reason he came over to NA to play with Regina was because of his SHL club keeping him in the HV71, I think the caps get him to play against better competition than the whl one way or another
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true, but I'm sure they'd rather that happen in North America
 
I can see Miro playing in SC to start the year. They purposely brought him over to play in North America. I also think Sudz will be on third line. And I’d rather have Lappy as 2C and Limoges on wing.

Snively-Sgarbossa-Frank
Veccicone-Lapierre-Phillips
Suzdalev-Hofer-Limoges
Dube-Sutter-Rybinski

Limoges can play center. Hofer can play 4LW. Maybe Dube is third line since he doesn’t really fit 4th line. I like splitting Sgarbossa and Veccicone so veteran presence on both lines but maybe they re-unite with Frank.

Two things for sure. Caps are trying to get their top prospects in the NA game this year even if SC. There are lots of options and competition.

I also hope their are some trades even beyond the always talked about Mantha and Kuzy for nothing else but to create roster space (and get draft capital while at it).
 
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