Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[marcel snapshot]

Rangers strength of schedule up to now has been very soft - 6th easiest in NHL, and they are still struggling.

 

[qc14]

I still think they should go hard after Marner. Both to play with Ovi in his last year to make sure he gets 895 and to replace his production when he hangs ‘em up?

For instance, this would be cap compliant.

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner (8yrsx12,5M)
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-Lapierre (2yrsx1,5M)-Miro
Duhaime-Dowd (1yrx1,3M)-Leonard (975k)
Trinyev (775k)-Rybinski (775k)

Chychrun (8yrsx7,5M)-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-($2,75M Dman)
Iorio

Thompson (4yrsx3,5M)
Stevenson

I think I'd move some things around at the bottom of the roster (mostly diverting some of the 13f, 14f, and 6d money into a vet backup rather than Stevenson) but sign me up. I also really like the idea of starting Leonard on that "4th" line, especially if they bring Dowd back.

I do have a suspicion that if Marner moves on from TOR it's going to be at > $14M and idk if that's a number I'd want to spend

Rangers strength of schedule up to now has been very soft - 6th easiest in NHL, and they are still struggling.

If you look at their game by game results it's even worse. They have one win against a team in a playoff spot.

 

[wickedwitch]

I posted this in the wrong thread so I’ll move it here..

I still think they should go hard after Marner. Both to play with Ovi in his last year to make sure he gets 895 and to replace his production when he hangs ‘em up?

Besides Backy and Oshie after this season Ovi and Carlson’s contract will also run out and re-signing the latter will be a tougher decision to make with him being 36 at the time it expires. So there could potentially be lots of cap space opening up in the next two years with the predicted cap raises ($92M at the minimum next year). Caps have $65,3M committed on 9F - 6D - 1G

Protas-Strome-Ovi
CMM-PLD-Wilson
Milano-X-Miro
Duhaime-X-X
X-X

X-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-TVR
Iorio

X-Stevenson

UFA’s:
Dowd, Raddysh, Bear, McIlrath, Eller, Vrana, Thompson, Lindgren

RFA:s, holding rights
Lapierre, Alexeyev, Leonard

So that’s $26,7M on 7 players with potentially 2 players north of $3M. If they sign Chychrun at 8x$7,5M and Thompson at 4x$3,5M they’ll still have $15M+ to sign a 3C, 4C, 4RW and 2 Extra F/D.
They’ll also have more wiggle-room if they move Milano ($1,9M) and maybe TVR ($3M), both will be on their last year of their contracts.

Players like Marner are very rarely available and neither Miro or Leonard will be close to offsetting Ovechkin’s production in the next few years.

For instance, this would be cap compliant.

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner (8yrsx12,5M)
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-Lapierre (2yrsx1,5M)-Miro
Duhaime-Dowd (1yrx1,3M)-Leonard (975k)
Trinyev (775k)-Rybinski (775k)

Chychrun (8yrsx7,5M)-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-($2,75M Dman)
Iorio

Thompson (4yrsx3,5M)
Stevenson

And the year after (26-27) they’ll have the cap raise + Ovechkins cap hit + Carlson’s cap hit to either re-sign or replace Carlson and Fehervary. So the cap situation is actually IMO scary good right now.

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

Carbery's opinion is obviously the most critical here, because he knows Marner really well.

Also, unless Marner wil somehow prevent Ovi from getting injured, I don't think Ovi needs any more help getting to 895 -- he was doing just fine with Strome and Protas.

 

[qc14]

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

I agree with 2) and don't really know anything about 3) but hard disagree on 1) here.

I think it's been proven time and again that if your prospects really are the top players fans always hope for they will force the issue. If Cristall, Miro, and Leonard all hit and all hit next year and you need to play Protas or Wilson or Miro or Leonard on the fourth line, that's a great problem to have!

I would also be much more sympathetic to the argument if it wasn't about a 27yo who has been well over a ppg for basically his entire career.

 

[wickedwitch]

I agree with 2) and don't really know anything about 3) but hard disagree on 1) here.

I think it's been proven time and again that if your prospects really are the top players fans always hope for they will force the issue. If Cristall, Miro, and Leonard all hit and all hit next year and you need to play Protas or Wilson or Miro or Leonard on the fourth line, that's a great problem to have!

In a world without a salary cap, that's a great problem. With a salary cap, it's extremely inefficient roster construction. Also, some players need to play with other skilled players to get the most out of them; Strome is a good example, which is why he's now on his 3rd team. So you have to balance this fight for spot with putting young players in a position to succeed and develop.

ETA: I don't think the wing log-jam is reason enough not to sign Marner. But it could easily cause problems that should be acknowledged as part of the decision. My main concern with regards to the log-jam are the combination of the log-jam and its effect on prospect development combined with the salary cap.

 

[MW6]

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

Carbery's opinion is obviously the most critical here, because he knows Marner really well.

Also, unless Marner wil somehow prevent Ovi from getting injured, I don't think Ovi needs any more help getting to 895 -- he was doing just fine with Strome and Protas.

the logjam is a best case scenario which would indicate that every prospect has reached their/ overachieved their potential. And if that’s the case the pieces will be valuable enough to trade in exchange for someone who could fill another need on the roster. If the cost to getting Marner is capspace (or a pick to retain his rights) it’s a no brainer IMO.

Cristall will start in Hershey next year, and will probably need at least the full year to get used to the grind and physicality of playing against men. Hopefully Miro can find his groove in the big league up until next year. Leonard, like everyone else needs to earn his minutes and if he’s outplaying people, that’s good on him, someone else gets moved down the pecking order. Parascak is 3 years+ out. And things happen all the time.. injuries, slumps, regression. Everyone, myself included had Lapierre as a sure thing manning the third line during the summer. Development is never linear.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Please no Marner. CMM might be better now

 

[qc14]

Please no Marner. CMM might be better now

I love CMM and he's playing incredibly but come on now

 

[Nogatco Rd]

The team is leading the league in goals right now. Mitch Marner would’ve been attractive last year but I don’t see the need to shake things up at this point. Especially if that nukes your ability to re-sign guys who are here now.

Also, the last thing this franchise needs is a $14M player who plays like a $4M player in the playoffs

all that said, I would be shocked if he’s not back in Toronto next year

 

[DWGie26]

Caps are going youth movement right now, They will plug with vets like Eller where they need to. Our top 6 (with OV) are all signed to next year. Questions on who to sign and play on 3rd and 4th. But looking forward there is a lot in the system from Leonard and Cristal to Trineyev and Rybinski. Iorio and Chesley on Dee. I don’t think they’ll sign a big name/contract with term.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I think there's no chance that Dowd doesn't come back (or they try to find the next Dowd in UFA). Having that 4th line be a no-doubt shutdown force is just too important to how the team is built and while I like Rybynski I don't see him being able to play anywhere close to that role.

I'd also assume Leonard starts in Hershey, Lappy is moved out, or both with a vet coming in UFA to play 3c or 3lw

Protas-Strome-Ovi
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Miro-XX-XX
Duhaime-Dowd-XX

lots of internal candidates to fill those slots but also plenty of space to go out and add again.

Not a chance Leonard ends up in Hershey (except if the Caps miss the loffs and Hershey is in)

A.) He isn’t going to forego college to play in the AHL.

B.) BMac has said multiple times he is NHL ready

 

[Ridley Simon]

Don’t want or need Marner. He’s a fine player. Don’t get me wrong.

But he’s not what this team needs. Either now, or down the line (unless something weird happens).

Caps need to keep a strong, puck moving D. Inevitably when the payroll gets trimmed, they will have money enough for wingers. And not 12.5m dollar ones.

If they saw a C they liked ar 12.5? I’d pause. Or a top D.

But that’s it. IMO

 

[MW6]

Don’t want or need Marner. He’s a fine player. Don’t get me wrong.

But he’s not what this team needs. Either now, or down the line (unless something weird happens).

Caps need to keep a strong, puck moving D. Inevitably when the payroll gets trimmed, they will have money enough for wingers. And not 12.5m dollar ones.

If they saw a C they liked ar 12.5? I’d pause. Or a top D.

But that’s it. IMO

If neither a PMD or a top C is availible, should they just bank that cap space in your opinion? Because if they "just" run it back they're looking at probably 8-9M in capspace (5-6M if they bring back both goalies)

 

[Kuz]

Dont really see how the Caps are gonna make it capwise with aquiring Marner. He would probably cost the same or more than it would cost to resign Chychrun, Mangiapane and Thompson. We need Chychrun way more than Marner. We already have two players producing as 1st line wingers for next year in Ovi and McM. Then you have Protas and Wilson that are clearly top 6 wingers. Then add to that we have Leonard who is looking great and Cristall producing at an insane rate in the WHL. Then you also have Miro who should get time in the NHL and Parascak who is also a very good prospect. You dont want to add another expensive winger to that mix.

 

[HTFN]

If neither a PMD or a top C is availible, should they just bank that cap space in your opinion? Because if they "just" run it back they're looking at probably 8-9M in capspace (5-6M if they bring back both goalies)

Theoretically that's a wild rental budget, but if you don't see a target that fits the team (preferably a few years) then.... I'm hesitant. You can spend it on pure rentals but there's not a lot of structure on this team that needs that type of improving.

If you're trading to sign it'd better be somebody significant because any of those middle six moves also won't work, so it seems to have to be an actual serious difference maker.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I love CMM and he's playing incredibly but come on now

You will see. And yes its a big swing statement and maybe I just hate the leafs.
I think Marner is very much over ratted and is a big game choker padding his stats and whoever pays him Mcdavid money is going to ruin their team

 

[Kuz]

If neither a PMD or a top C is availible, should they just bank that cap space in your opinion? Because if they "just" run it back they're looking at probably 8-9M in capspace (5-6M if they bring back both goalies)

Kinda hard to speculate what the Caps will have left for next year. Chychrun+Thompson resigning and Miro up to replace Mangia would probably be around the same cost. Dowd+Raddysh replaced or extended should be around the same cost. They might save some on Eller, but lapierre will probably get around 2 mill on an extension. If Lindgren is resigned he will cost more and its not a lot to save from current cost on a backup goaltender brought up from Hershey.

So I dont see a lot of extra cap space from what they have this year after they have resigned players. They have 30 mill on defence now. Will probably be 32-33 next year. Goalies should go from around 2 mill to 4-6 mill. Then you have 39 mill right now on forward before players are resigned. After Lapierre, Dowd, Raddysh are resigned and bringing in players like Leonard and Miro to bring it to 14 forwards you are probably looking at around 45 mill on forwards. So high estimate is around 84 mill bringing back both goalies and resigning Chychrun. If Lapierre isnt starting to work out in the 3C role thats more of a need as Eller isnt a long term replacement.

 

[HTFN]

You will see. And yes its a big swing statement and maybe I just hate the leafs.
I think Marner is very much over ratted and is a big game choker padding his stats and whoever pays him Mcdavid money is going to ruin their team

honestly I don't like his mannerisms, perceived attitude, and kind of just... the way he handles himself.

Mitch Marner is basically my Cam Newton of hockey, I'm not denying that he's good but I question whether I want him to be around my team.

 

[Kuz]

You will see. And yes its a big swing statement and maybe I just hate the leafs.
I think Marner is very much over ratted and is a big game choker padding his stats and whoever pays him Mcdavid money is going to ruin their team

Yeah he is a very good offensive player, but McM also brings a better two way game compared to Marner. Would be interesting what McM could do with a little bit more PP time. I also dont see why you bring in Marner on a 14 mill contract unless you think the team can win within the next 2-3 years. After that the contract will have a very high risk of being negative value. Espescially when wingers even without Ovi is looking like a strong position for the Caps with McM, Wilson and Protas already on the team. So unless all of Leonard, Parascak, Cristall and Miro fails then winger wont be a need.

 

[MW6]

Yeah he is a very good offensive player, but McM also brings a better two way game compared to Marner. Would be interesting what McM could do with a little bit more PP time. I also dont see why you bring in Marner on a 14 mill contract unless you think the team can win within the next 2-3 years. After that the contract will have a very high risk of being negative value. Espescially when wingers even without Ovi is looking like a strong position for the Caps with McM, Wilson and Protas already on the team. So unless all of Leonard, Parascak, Cristall and Miro fails then winger wont be a need.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...sQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0SE3TiCpLdy6D1hE6gXfOq
Marner was a Selke finalist 2 years ago, so his defense is amongst the best in the league.
And I think the Toronto media brings out the worst in players.
Ovi was a playoff choke, Oshie was a playoff choke. Marner have 50 pts in 57 playoff games and is +10. Matthews have 48 in 56 with +2, Nylander have 43 in 54 and is+1, Tavares 24pts in 38 games with a -9 (with the Leafs).

I'd hesitate to give him 14M/year but i'd be perfectly fine with 12,5M/year.
Neither of those prospects will be differencemakers (maybe Leonard) on their ELC's so we're talking 2-4 years if any of them hits before they're close to contributing at Ovechkins current ppg level (not pure goalscoring).

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner
Miro-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-CMM-Leonard

And Ovi's spot will be vacant before Cristall is ready. Lapierre could be trade for a RHD PMD with similar upside.

 

[qc14]

Yeah he is a very good offensive player, but McM also brings a better two way game compared to Marner. Would be interesting what McM could do with a little bit more PP time. I also dont see why you bring in Marner on a 14 mill contract unless you think the team can win within the next 2-3 years. After that the contract will have a very high risk of being negative value. Espescially when wingers even without Ovi is looking like a strong position for the Caps with McM, Wilson and Protas already on the team. So unless all of Leonard, Parascak, Cristall and Miro fails then winger wont be a need.

I guess I just fundamentally disagree on the talent eval of Marner. Yes he has his warts, but I truly do believe that amongst wingers you're probably only taking Panarin, M. Tkachuk, and Kaprizov ahead of him the last five years. As for a two-way game, Marner has received Selke votes the last 6 years and finished 3rd two years ago. Amongst wingers, I'd only really have Mark Stone above him defensively.

Obviously there's still a limit (I wouldn't go to $14M for example), but that's the kind of player you move plans around for. I think the rest of this team has proven already that there's a great foundation here, but what we lack is still that true game-breaking forward. Marner (or Rantanen!) would be that guy for us.

And while I get the point about a 1d to take over for Carlson, that guy just isn't even potentially available.

 

[qc14]

Not a chance Leonard ends up in Hershey (except if the Caps miss the loffs and Hershey is in)

A.) He isn’t going to forego college to play in the AHL.

B.) BMac has said multiple times he is NHL ready

I think he'll start in the NHL this season but next year 1) the org has a proven track record of having guys play longer than most would like in Hershey and 2) the rest of the roster is in a much better shape than the end of last year when they wanted him to sign.