Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[marcel snapshot]

Rangers strength of schedule up to now has been very soft - 6th easiest in NHL, and they are still struggling.

 

[qc14]

I still think they should go hard after Marner. Both to play with Ovi in his last year to make sure he gets 895 and to replace his production when he hangs ‘em up?

For instance, this would be cap compliant.

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner (8yrsx12,5M)
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-Lapierre (2yrsx1,5M)-Miro
Duhaime-Dowd (1yrx1,3M)-Leonard (975k)
Trinyev (775k)-Rybinski (775k)

Chychrun (8yrsx7,5M)-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-($2,75M Dman)
Iorio

Thompson (4yrsx3,5M)
Stevenson

I think I'd move some things around at the bottom of the roster (mostly diverting some of the 13f, 14f, and 6d money into a vet backup rather than Stevenson) but sign me up. I also really like the idea of starting Leonard on that "4th" line, especially if they bring Dowd back.

I do have a suspicion that if Marner moves on from TOR it's going to be at > $14M and idk if that's a number I'd want to spend

Rangers strength of schedule up to now has been very soft - 6th easiest in NHL, and they are still struggling.

If you look at their game by game results it's even worse. They have one win against a team in a playoff spot.

 

[wickedwitch]

I posted this in the wrong thread so I’ll move it here..

I still think they should go hard after Marner. Both to play with Ovi in his last year to make sure he gets 895 and to replace his production when he hangs ‘em up?

Besides Backy and Oshie after this season Ovi and Carlson’s contract will also run out and re-signing the latter will be a tougher decision to make with him being 36 at the time it expires. So there could potentially be lots of cap space opening up in the next two years with the predicted cap raises ($92M at the minimum next year). Caps have $65,3M committed on 9F - 6D - 1G

Protas-Strome-Ovi
CMM-PLD-Wilson
Milano-X-Miro
Duhaime-X-X
X-X

X-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-TVR
Iorio

X-Stevenson

UFA’s:
Dowd, Raddysh, Bear, McIlrath, Eller, Vrana, Thompson, Lindgren

RFA:s, holding rights
Lapierre, Alexeyev, Leonard

So that’s $26,7M on 7 players with potentially 2 players north of $3M. If they sign Chychrun at 8x$7,5M and Thompson at 4x$3,5M they’ll still have $15M+ to sign a 3C, 4C, 4RW and 2 Extra F/D.
They’ll also have more wiggle-room if they move Milano ($1,9M) and maybe TVR ($3M), both will be on their last year of their contracts.

Players like Marner are very rarely available and neither Miro or Leonard will be close to offsetting Ovechkin’s production in the next few years.

For instance, this would be cap compliant.

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner (8yrsx12,5M)
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-Lapierre (2yrsx1,5M)-Miro
Duhaime-Dowd (1yrx1,3M)-Leonard (975k)
Trinyev (775k)-Rybinski (775k)

Chychrun (8yrsx7,5M)-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-($2,75M Dman)
Iorio

Thompson (4yrsx3,5M)
Stevenson

And the year after (26-27) they’ll have the cap raise + Ovechkins cap hit + Carlson’s cap hit to either re-sign or replace Carlson and Fehervary. So the cap situation is actually IMO scary good right now.

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

Carbery's opinion is obviously the most critical here, because he knows Marner really well.

Also, unless Marner wil somehow prevent Ovi from getting injured, I don't think Ovi needs any more help getting to 895 -- he was doing just fine with Strome and Protas.

 

[qc14]

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

I agree with 2) and don't really know anything about 3) but hard disagree on 1) here.

I think it's been proven time and again that if your prospects really are the top players fans always hope for they will force the issue. If Cristall, Miro, and Leonard all hit and all hit next year and you need to play Protas or Wilson or Miro or Leonard on the fourth line, that's a great problem to have!

I would also be much more sympathetic to the argument if it wasn't about a 27yo who has been well over a ppg for basically his entire career.

 

[wickedwitch]

I agree with 2) and don't really know anything about 3) but hard disagree on 1) here.

I think it's been proven time and again that if your prospects really are the top players fans always hope for they will force the issue. If Cristall, Miro, and Leonard all hit and all hit next year and you need to play Protas or Wilson or Miro or Leonard on the fourth line, that's a great problem to have!

In a world without a salary cap, that's a great problem. With a salary cap, it's extremely inefficient roster construction. Also, some players need to play with other skilled players to get the most out of them; Strome is a good example, which is why he's now on his 3rd team. So you have to balance this fight for spot with putting young players in a position to succeed and develop.

ETA: I don't think the wing log-jam is reason enough not to sign Marner. But it could easily cause problems that should be acknowledged as part of the decision. My main concern with regards to the log-jam are the combination of the log-jam and its effect on prospect development combined with the salary cap.

 

[MW6]

I'm a fan of Marner, and wouldn't mind signing him. But:
1) it creates a serious log-jam at wing both short and long term. Leonard is one of the top prospects in hockey; they aren't keeping him on the 4th line for a whole season. Not to mention there's Cristall, too.
2) we're going to need that cap space to replace Carlson long-term, and Chychrun alone won't come close to being enough. We have multiple players who could potentially be top line wingers, but we have nobody that profiles as a 1D.
3) I'm not sure how fond Carbery is of Marner. He's talked positively about Matthews and Nylander on multiple occasions since becoming the Caps head coach, using them as examples of forwards who do various things well. I can't remember him mentioning Marner once. But even if he has, he talks about Matthews and Nylander a whole lot more.

Carbery's opinion is obviously the most critical here, because he knows Marner really well.

Also, unless Marner wil somehow prevent Ovi from getting injured, I don't think Ovi needs any more help getting to 895 -- he was doing just fine with Strome and Protas.

the logjam is a best case scenario which would indicate that every prospect has reached their/ overachieved their potential. And if that’s the case the pieces will be valuable enough to trade in exchange for someone who could fill another need on the roster. If the cost to getting Marner is capspace (or a pick to retain his rights) it’s a no brainer IMO.

Cristall will start in Hershey next year, and will probably need at least the full year to get used to the grind and physicality of playing against men. Hopefully Miro can find his groove in the big league up until next year. Leonard, like everyone else needs to earn his minutes and if he’s outplaying people, that’s good on him, someone else. Parascak is 3 years+ out. And things happen all the time.. injuries, slumps, regression. Everyone, myself included had Lapierre as a sure thing manning the third line during the summer. Development is never linear.