Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[wickedwitch]

Looking at next year's forward lines, this is who we already have signed + Leonard:
Protas-Strome-Ovi
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Miro/Leonard-Lapierre-Miro/Leonard
Duhaime-Rybinski-Trineyev

I assume these won't be the actual lines, a) because they are going to want to shield Miro and Leonard more and b) there will be a FA signing or two. But I don't think there will be a lot of FA signings, because I think getting Miro/Leonard in the lineup will be a big priority. But it gives you a sense of where the team is heading.

 

[Kazer]

I think it's a matter of expectations.

I've never viewed RMNB as anything other than a novelty website where you might see a gif or two from a recent game.

If you're expecting professional journalism, then yeah, it's not going to meet that.

I thought RMNB had a chance, similar to Japers, to cross into actual interesting analysis. And they chose clickbait instead.

I no longer follow RMNB on any social media and avoid them otherwise when possible. The hyperbole got to be too much. Not every game has to be 'CAPS FORGET HOW TO PLAY IN SECOND PERIOD' or 'CAPS = SADNESS'. Sometimes, you lose a game to a good team. Sometimes you have a bad night. It doesn't get as many clicks, but it's reality.

 

[qc14]

Looking at next year's forward lines, this is who we already have signed + Leonard:
Protas-Strome-Ovi
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Miro/Leonard-Lapierre-Miro/Leonard
Duhaime-Rybinski-Trineyev

I assume these won't be the actual lines, a) because they are going to want to shield Miro and Leonard more and b) there will be a FA signing or two. But I don't think there will be a lot of FA signings, because I think getting Miro/Leonard in the lineup will be a big priority. But it gives you a sense of where the team is heading.

I think there's no chance that Dowd doesn't come back (or they try to find the next Dowd in UFA). Having that 4th line be a no-doubt shutdown force is just too important to how the team is built and while I like Rybynski I don't see him being able to play anywhere close to that role.

I'd also assume Leonard starts in Hershey, Lappy is moved out, or both with a vet coming in UFA to play 3c or 3lw

Protas-Strome-Ovi
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Miro-XX-XX
Duhaime-Dowd-XX

lots of internal candidates to fill those slots but also plenty of space to go out and add again.

 

[DWGie26]

I thought RMNB had a chance, similar to Japers, to cross into actual interesting analysis. And they chose clickbait instead.

I no longer follow RMNB on any social media and avoid them otherwise when possible. The hyperbole got to be too much. Not every game has to be 'CAPS FORGET HOW TO PLAY IN SECOND PERIOD' or 'CAPS = SADNESS'. Sometimes, you lose a game to a good team. Sometimes you have a bad night. It doesn't get as many clicks, but it's reality.

I’m surprised there is still so much hate for RBNB. I feel like they have tightened things up a bunch. Much better prospect/AHL coverage. I read both NovaCaps and RMDB and both are good informational sites. But i don’t spend time on the boards piece. Especially RMNB. people just crazy. The hockey conversation and analysis is MUCH better here. And enough good posters that the dummies can’t take over. Can’t weed all of the bad posting out of the other sites… too late.

 

[Roshi]

I think there's no chance that Dowd doesn't come back (or they try to find the next Dowd in UFA). Having that 4th line be a no-doubt shutdown force is just too important to how the team is built and while I like Rybynski I don't see him being able to play anywhere close to that role.

I'd also assume Leonard starts in Hershey, Lappy is moved out, or both with a vet coming in UFA to play 3c or 3lw

Protas-Strome-Ovi
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Miro-XX-XX
Duhaime-Dowd-XX

lots of internal candidates to fill those slots but also plenty of space to go out and add again.

Agreed. The "fourth line" has been their cornerstone and sort of identity line for nearly a decade now.

They have always valued highly having that depth, and to appreciate it thats what kept us in the mix for the past few years - in controversy for a lot of up-front talented teams that have the strategy to see the fourth line as some sort of cast-away combo with unwanted veterans and not-sure-who-they-are rookies.

Rybinski, Sutter, Trineyev all seem like suitable fourth liners to NHL, but they'll have to push a war-tested veteran from their way to make it with Caps. And im very fine with it. Im hoping Dowd returns for another couple of years, and pretty sure we will have another Raddysh-type exploration too to push that internal competition for a spot (thats the guy Trineyev needs to pass to make it).

A bit worried Dowd could follow his bff to Ottawa, but its in Canada so propably not. Other than that I see very little reason for neither sides to part. Dowd gets the respect and security here at 34+ years and theres very little reason for Caps to lowball the next contract and lose him for a couple hundred k's when cap is going up and we dont have problems it to even start with. Dowd has been lowkey one of the best shutdown centers in the WORLD for years. Coaches and linemates can change but Nic will deliver.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think the fact we never traded Dowd is good for his extension. His age could be a worry.

Sign JC6, Figure out goalies next season. Save some money for CMM (hoping he gives a discount)

The more I think of it almost no chance we can afford Mangi next season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

NHL prospects I was wrong about, 2024 edition: Corey Pronman looks back — The Athletic

The Athletic's Corey Pronman reflects on some misses in his player evaluations and what can be learned from them.

apple.news

Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals

There’s merit to doing this type of article, as I think it benefits my process and can inform readers, too. But there is an uncertainty around when to make the call to speak. How long do you wait to determine if a projection was wrong? Is it two years, four years, 10 years? Player development can fluctuate over the seasons and make it difficult.

Why do I mention this? Because I’m doing something today I absolutely, positively dread every time I write this article: mentioning a player for the second time. In 2022, I wrote up McMichael as a player I was too high on. Now, in 2024, I’m walking that back.

My evaluations of McMichael have fluctuated wildly. I went from a bottom-six forward in his draft season in 2019 to a potential top-line forward a year or two later. Then, in ’22 after he struggled a bit in the NHL, was sent back to the AHL and wasn’t lighting it up there, I saw a potential middle-six forward. A broken clock must be right at some point. I’m not going to sit here and tell you how wrong I was, because it’s unclear which prediction was the wrong one!

McMichael has been excellent this season as a leading part of a surprising Washington team. My concern in junior was his skating (as it was for some NHL scouts I talked to). Whether the feet improved or I misevaluated it, his skating hasn’t been an issue this season. He’s playing fast enough to go with his hardworking style, high skill

 

[Roshi]

I think the fact we never traded Dowd is good for his extension. His age could be a worry.

Sign JC6, Figure out goalies next season. Save some money for CMM (hoping he gives a discount)

The more I think of it almost no chance we can afford Mangi next season.

I see his age as a plus factor. He likely values stability over few bucks, and has been quite steady to play around 64 games a season. Theres quite a good 18 game window for someone in the system to step up as replacement candidate within the next couple years

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Having Beagle and Dowd 4th line centers for the last 10+ years has been nice. Im not sure we have someone like that in Hershey.

I would never suggest using a high draft pick on a Gordon or Steckel type player again. I think you can find them in FA with good scouting.

 

[Kazer]

NHL prospects I was wrong about, 2024 edition: Corey Pronman looks back — The Athletic

The Athletic's Corey Pronman reflects on some misses in his player evaluations and what can be learned from them.

apple.news

Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals

There’s merit to doing this type of article, as I think it benefits my process and can inform readers, too. But there is an uncertainty around when to make the call to speak. How long do you wait to determine if a projection was wrong? Is it two years, four years, 10 years? Player development can fluctuate over the seasons and make it difficult.

Why do I mention this? Because I’m doing something today I absolutely, positively dread every time I write this article: mentioning a player for the second time. In 2022, I wrote up McMichael as a player I was too high on. Now, in 2024, I’m walking that back.

My evaluations of McMichael have fluctuated wildly. I went from a bottom-six forward in his draft season in 2019 to a potential top-line forward a year or two later. Then, in ’22 after he struggled a bit in the NHL, was sent back to the AHL and wasn’t lighting it up there, I saw a potential middle-six forward. A broken clock must be right at some point. I’m not going to sit here and tell you how wrong I was, because it’s unclear which prediction was the wrong one!

McMichael has been excellent this season as a leading part of a surprising Washington team. My concern in junior was his skating (as it was for some NHL scouts I talked to). Whether the feet improved or I misevaluated it, his skating hasn’t been an issue this season. He’s playing fast enough to go with his hardworking style, high skill

Looking forward to Pronman's 2026 edition where he says the same thing about Andrew Cristall's skating.

 

[DWGie26]

For Dowd, i have been saying for a while we should resign him. Part of it is his stability on the 4th line which is critically important for the Caps. You also need to consider the OV affect as OV is going to want some tenured veterans. Also, at 34 his game is still in top form for a 4C. Lastly, there is no sure replacement in our system. Rybinski could rise up to be that but not for a couple of years.

I’d resign Dowd for 2 years which is OV’s last year and one transition year. Somewhere between 1.5M and 2M per year. He’s not getting 3-4M and he isn’t uprooting his life for 2.5M. Get this done by season’s end (not now).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Responding to the LT extension discussion in the GDT….really wondering if they try to keep this platoon after this year. Nobody from the system is really pressing them for NHL time.

Lindgren (about to turn 31) makes $1.1
Thompson (about to turn 28) $766k

LT is slightly ahead of CL performance-wise IMO, but not by a wide margin (in terms of grabbing the starter role)and that could easily flip back and forth at times.

I wonder if they don’t try to extend both guys at a reasonable price. Maybe 3 years for LT, 2 for CL…

 

[Kazer]

Responding to the LT extension discussion in the GDT….really wondering if they try to keep this platoon after this year. Nobody from the system is really pressing them for NHL time.

Lindgren (about to turn 31) makes $1.1
Thompson (about to turn 28) $766k

LT is slightly ahead of CL performance-wise IMO, but not by a wide margin (in terms of grabbing the starter role)and that could easily flip back and forth at times.

I wonder if they don’t try to extend both guys at a reasonable price. Maybe 3 years for LT, 2 for CL…

I've been having the same thought recently. I would go longer with LT given his age and the lack of pipeline.

Maybe 4 or 5 x 4.5 aav for LT and 2 x 2.5 aav for Lindgren?

Given his rough AHL numbers, it seems that Stevenson has played his way out of being an NHL backup next season. He will probably be the organizational #3 (currently Shepard) for next year given his one-way contract.

 

[DWGie26]

I've been having the same thought recently. I would go longer with LT given his age and the lack of pipeline.

Maybe 4 or 5 x 4.5 aav for LT and 2 x 2.5 aav for Lindgren?

Given his rough AHL numbers, it seems that Stevenson has played his way out of being an NHL backup next season. He will probably be the organizational #3 (currently Shepard) for next year given his one-way contract.

yep… Stevenson should be clear workhorse in Hershey next year and a 3rd goalie. His contract can be buried and i doubt anyone will take him on waivers.

I really don’t want to go longer than 4 years. That is good security for a guy like Thompson and he’ll get another contract at 31. No issue with a Chuckie 2 year deal at 2-2.5M.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I've been having the same thought recently. I would go longer with LT given his age and the lack of pipeline.

Maybe 4 or 5 x 4.5 aav for LT and 2 x 2.5 aav for Lindgren?

Given his rough AHL numbers, it seems that Stevenson has played his way out of being an NHL backup next season. He will probably be the organizational #3 (currently Shepard) for next year given his one-way contract.

I’d try for 3-4 x 3.5-4 for LT, and 2 x 2.25 for CL. ~$6 mil total for a solid platoon seems reasonable to me.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Moneypuck has bought in. I think after our 10-4-1 start they still only had us in the 60s in terms of percentage to make the playoffs and now we’re 5th in the league to make it at 95% and 7th to win the Cup.

 

[Kazer]

Moneypuck has bought in. I think after our 10-4-1 start they still only had us in the 60s in terms of percentage to make the playoffs and now we’re 5th in the league to make it at 95% and 7th to win the Cup.

I wonder if Moneypuck weighs partially based on last year and now that there is more sample size their model is self-correcting?

 

[Silky mitts]

Responding to the LT extension discussion in the GDT….really wondering if they try to keep this platoon after this year. Nobody from the system is really pressing them for NHL time.

Lindgren (about to turn 31) makes $1.1
Thompson (about to turn 28) $766k

LT is slightly ahead of CL performance-wise IMO, but not by a wide margin (in terms of grabbing the starter role)and that could easily flip back and forth at times.

I wonder if they don’t try to extend both guys at a reasonable price. Maybe 3 years for LT, 2 for CL…

Friedman talked about that on 32 Thoughts last week, said there was no reason it wouldn't work if the goalies were good with it. This approach is probably more constructive in contract negotiations vs saying there is only one contract for whoever will take less.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

He's been great, and been the center for one of the best lines in the league this year. All the while also being incredibly unlucky.

The hottest finishers are in blue and the coldest in red? Am I understanding this right?

I wonder if Moneypuck weighs partially based on last year and now that there is more sample size their model is self-correcting?

It does - I think it assigns a lot of weight to the most recent 20 gp, which stretches back to the previous season

 

[qc14]

Re: Dowd
I'm extremely comfortable giving him up to $2.5Mx2 and I think there's going to be a lot of desire for him on both sides to work out a deal to stay. As they said on the broadcast last night, he's now been here for 7(!!!) years and in terms of deployment is in reality much more of a 3c which I'm not sure he's getting anywhere else.

Re: goalies
I think you can get LT in the 3 year, $3.5-$5M range and I'd do that. Lindgren I'd assume something a little smaller and a little shorter, maybe $2.5-4Mx2. If both are fine with the 55-45 platoon based off of who's playing better at the time, bring both of them back. I think (much to the dismay of Hershey fans) it's Shep's last year in the org. Stevenson ... I don't have much faith in an NHL career but he can be a #3. If you have to prioritize one, I'd go LT and bring a different vet in to back up. Definitely don't let both leave though, and don't spend more than $6.5M a season combined on goalies.

Re: Chychrun
I've seen enough from him and the team. Get an extension done now. I think the rising cap may lift him a bit but as I've said elsewhere, all of his recent comps (Dunn, Montour, Skjei, Hanifin, Theodore) are pretty team friendly and well below $8M and if you go back just a bit further (H. Lindholm, Parayko, Sanheim, Brodin) they're all under $7M. Somewhere in the $7.5Mx7 range should get it done.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

If it’s seemed like the Caps have had a brutal schedule so far… it’s because they have

here is Washington’s SOS to date:

… and future SOS

Data per powerrankingsguru.com, which calculates SOS according to an aggregation of various computer-generated power rankings from across the web. This, IMO, makes their rankings more reliable than simply plugging in raw points percentage or W/L records.

 

[Langway]

Don't look now but they're also currently tied for second in goal differential. Some kind of turnaround.

 

[Kazer]

I'm a little buyer beware on Chychrun, at least at the moment.

Why?

• He's one of the few D on the team with a xGF% below 50%;
• He's shooting almost 20% (7.1% career average);
• He's benefitting from both a high on ice shooting percentage and a high on ice save percentage;
• He gets favorable usage (56% OZ starts).

Not saying the team shouldn't re-sign him, but he's clearly on a heater right now. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

 

[Jags]

Don't look now but they're also currently tied for second in goal differential. Some kind of turnaround.

I think the big takeaway is that it says something about our coaching staff and management correctly identifying and finding fixes for our biggest issues in short order. The BMac naysayers can all go screw, and we've definitely gotten in on the ground floor with Carbery.

The big, notable narrative going into the postseason was how a team with that goal differential made it to the playoffs. Carbery gets blood from a stone, and our front office is finding him the right stones. Everything we've got going on behind the scenes is clicking right now. Fingers crossed.

Not saying the team shouldn't re-sign him, but he's clearly on a heater right now. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Fair enough, but that's also how we'll end up paying more for him. Wait until the FA market starts to tighten up, wait until we have a good idea of what the cap will be next year, wait and see if he still feels injury prone, wait to find out if it's a hot streak or if he's just finally found a situation that suits him...

Wait until all of those things are definitive and that's the same exact point his agent knows exactly what his value is. It's not wrong to wait, but there's potentially a chunk of important cap space that might be gained by getting ahead of it.

 

[MW6]

I posted this in the wrong thread so I’ll move it here..

I still think they should go hard after Marner. Both to play with Ovi in his last year to make sure he gets 895 and to replace his production when he hangs ‘em up?

Besides Backy and Oshie after this season Ovi and Carlson’s contract will also run out and re-signing the latter will be a tougher decision to make with him being 36 at the time it expires. So there could potentially be lots of cap space opening up in the next two years with the predicted cap raises ($92M at the minimum next year). Caps have $65,3M committed on 9F - 6D - 1G

Protas-Strome-Ovi
CMM-PLD-Wilson
Milano-X-Miro
Duhaime-X-X
X-X

X-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-TVR
Iorio

X-Stevenson

UFA’s:
Dowd, Raddysh, Bear, McIlrath, Eller, Vrana, Thompson, Lindgren

RFA:s, holding rights
Lapierre, Alexeyev, Leonard

So that’s $26,7M on 7 players with potentially 2 players north of $3M. If they sign Chychrun at 8x$7,5M and Thompson at 4x$3,5M they’ll still have $15M+ to sign a 3C, 4C, 4RW and 2 Extra F/D.
They’ll also have more wiggle-room if they move Milano ($1,9M) and maybe TVR ($3M), both will be on their last year of their contracts.

Players like Marner are very rarely available and neither Miro or Leonard will be close to offsetting Ovechkin’s production in the next few years.

For instance, this would be cap compliant.

Ovechkin-Strome-Marner (8yrsx12,5M)
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson
Protas-Lapierre (2yrsx1,5M)-Miro
Duhaime-Dowd (1yrx1,3M)-Leonard (975k)
Trinyev (775k)-Rybinski (775k)

Chychrun (8yrsx7,5M)-Carlson
Sandin-Roy
Fehervary-($2,75M Dman)
Iorio

Thompson (4yrsx3,5M)
Stevenson

And the year after (26-27) they’ll have the cap raise + Ovechkins cap hit + Carlson’s cap hit to either re-sign or replace Carlson and Fehervary. So the cap situation is actually IMO scary good right now.