Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Ovechkins Wodka]

TVR is low-key having a great season

Played in every game. 7 assists. +6 and he’s able to play both sides and move up and down the lineup.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Milano is hurt again? Wonder if he's been nursing it all season.

He's been nursing that contract all season.

 

[Kazer]

The eternal question though is how you assign quality of competition. Can't be using the grades from your own model it'd be self-referential, so you've got to pick another metric.

If you're using points that's a small sample size that's going to be extremely swing-y, especially early in the season. Something like xGF/60 might be better, but now you're cutting finishing ability out of the equation. By that metric Ovie's barely better than Dowd or Raddysh, but his actual GF/60 is much higher because as you'd expect, he and his linemates are better finishers.

You could use TOI, but teams don't give ice time purely based on offensive ability. Dowd's 2nd on the Caps in ES TOI/g, while Ovie's down at 7th, so if you go purely by TOI then playing against Ovie would be considered easier usage than playing against Dowd. Even by overall TOI Dowd gets a full two minutes a night more than Protas because Protas isn't on the PP, but he's still obviously the much harder opponent. There's going to be a ton of noise there that'll make it less useful as a metric.

Also, do you account for the usage of the opponents? The Strome line outproduces the PLD line, but they get a lot more offensive zone starts than the PLD line, so do you weight that into the model? Is an individual DZ start against the PLD line necessarily easier than one against the Strome line now that you're holding where the shift starts constant?

And this has all been talking about the offensive quality of the competition. How do you go about measuring the defensive quality of the competition? That's a really key thing here, and why I keep making the Ovie-Dowd comparison, because while Ovie is a harder assignment for a guy whose role is to defend, Dowd is the harder assignment for a guy whose role is to attack. If you try to make a one-size-fits-all metric for QoC you lose the ability to make that differentiation. You basically need two separate metrics for offensive and defensive quality, and the latter is really hard to do and basically the reason we want a QoC metric in the first place and it all loops back around and in on itself and we're kind of hitting on the core reason why it's so hard to do analytics with sports where the same guy contributes to offense and defense simultaneously.

Sorry, that got way longer than I thought it'd be!

It's challenging for xG too. I disagree with what @Midnight_Judges said that xG is garbage, but it's definitely weird sometimes. A slam dunk 2-on-1 goal is somehow lower xG than what I perceive to be a relatively low quality chance (maybe it's a higher danger area but the goalie is set and square to the shooter).

The data/models continue to improve though.

FWIW, xGs are a bit overrated for players (though a decent metric for measuring chance generation) and not particularly useful for measuring individual games. It is quite useful in looking at long-term performances. Like, I'm sure nobody is surprised that our xG this year is WAY higher than last year. That matches the old eye test. We're clearly generating far more shots and chances than last year.

To your actual points, on QoC, I'm pretty sure most of the major models like JFresh use a weighting system including data from the past two seasons in addition to the current season. While that's obviously inherently flawed to some extent, it helps smooth out some of the early season swings that you described. I'm pretty sure JFresh's model weighs the current season most heavily, the last season in the middle, and two seasons ago the lightest.

 

[wickedwitch]

A quote: "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

xG is a model. Like all models, it has its flaws, and its useful to understand those flaws if you use xG as a stat.

 

[zappa4ever]

man, Milano just can't stay healthy for any long stretches can he

66GP in '22 w/ANA and 64GP with WSH in '23 are his career highs

 

[usiel]

That’s awesome. Again, you’re my hero, lol. If I may ask, what song was it?

I forget what you’ve said you play primarily - bass? Or also guitar?

Sry for the 20 questions,I just like talking shop and it’s been a minute since I’ve played out. My performing amp and giant MIDI pedalboard have been in my living room since COVID, ha.

I was trying to remember when writing that post let me look at the tracks....Ah it was track one Cowboys in Hell.

Bass player. Was a fun metal band back then but a little behind the curve on the thrash genre and its life span. We definitely were the best metal band in the DC/Baltimore area for a few years. Got to record a three demo of at Pyramid Studios in Ithaca NY with Alex Perialas (he was instrumental in coming up that the thrash metal guitar sound especially with Anthrax/Stormtroopers of Death.

My last band/project was the most successful was more heavy rock. Signed to an indie label, recorded a real pro album and even filmed a video (both ended up never getting released due to the label farsically not able to come to an agreement with a distributor for a few years. Got to play at CBGBs a couple of times before it went away. About the only venue we didn't get in in the DC/Baltimore area with the new 9:30 club.

One of the tracks from that unreleased album:

Ah, the Bayou. I recall seeing Egypt there a lot, and Scatterbrain, and the rest is a blur.

My band was slated to open for Pantera in 1995 or 1996 on the Far Beyond Driven tour when they were with Type O Negative but they decided no local bands at the last minute. Lame. My future wife hung out with Dime and Vinnie at the mall, though.

I didn't get into the Dead until much later. It wasn't that my tastes weren't diverse, I'd just never done more than dip a toe. But when I got it, I got it.

Man trying to remember if I ever saw Egypt or not. My first foray to the Bayou was in '87 to see Megadeth (Peace Sells album tour) and Overkill (taking over). Was underage so my dad, who worked in DC, went down during the day and talked to the club manager and managed to make a deal with her that we could get in for the show (my dad had to come also). Definitely one of the peak cool dad moments. Still have ticket stub. And the show was bad ass. Tbh my bro and I were more into Overkill than Megadeth.

Ran into the main guitar player of Overkill in '91 Foundations Forum in LA (was the biggest metal/rock thing like SXSW is now) and totally fangirled on Bengt Gustafson (believe that was his name). Also talked with Alice and Chains drummers for like an hour completely wasted I have no recollection of the conversation at an invite label thing. Best thing was seeing Pearl Jam play like acoustic version of tracks from the album Ten before it came out in a label booth. Both my singer and I after a couple of songs looked at each other and said these guys SUCK, hah.

 

[g00n]

I was trying to remember when writing that post let me look at the tracks....Ah it was track one Cowboys in Hell.

Bass player. Was a fun metal band back then but a little behind the curve on the thrash genre and its life span. We definitely were the best metal band in the DC/Baltimore area for a few years. Got to record a three demo of at Pyramid Studios in Ithaca NY with Alex Perialas (he was instrumental in coming up that the thrash metal guitar sound especially with Anthrax/Stormtroopers of Death.

My last band/project was the most successful was more heavy rock. Signed to an indie label, recorded a real pro album and even filmed a video (both ended up never getting released due to the label farsically not able to come to an agreement with a distributor for a few years. Got to play at CBGBs a couple of times before it went away. About the only venue we didn't get in in the DC/Baltimore area with the new 9:30 club.

One of the tracks from that unreleased album:




Man trying to remember if I ever saw Egypt or not. My first foray to the Bayou was in '87 to see Megadeth (Peace Sells album tour) and Overkill (taking over). Was underage so my dad, who worked in DC, went down during the day and talked to the club manager and managed to make a deal with her that we could get in for the show (my dad had to come also). Definitely one of the peak cool dad moments. Still have ticket stub. And the show was bad ass. Tbh my bro and I were more into Overkill than Megadeth.

Ran into the main guitar player of Overkill in '91 Foundations Forum in LA (was the biggest metal/rock thing like SXSW is now) and totally fangirled on Bengt Gustafson (believe that was his name). Also talked with Alice and Chains drummers for like an hour completely wasted I have no recollection of the conversation at an invite label thing. Best thing was seeing Pearl Jam play like acoustic version of tracks from the album Ten before it came out in a label booth. Both my singer and I after a couple of songs looked at each other and said these guys SUCK, hah.

I'll have to watch the vid later when I can crank it.

What a great time to be a metal head.

I have a few things on Spotify now but haven't pursued the music biz in decades. Still miss playing out. My old bass player was on Ozzfest with Motograter as one of the guitarists in the 90s. He's the guy with incredibly long hair. He went on to be a legal weed farmer. Our drummer eventually died from heroin. Man he was f***ing good. RIP.

What could have been...

 

[usiel]

I'll have to watch the vid later when I can crank it.

What a great time to be a metal head.

I have a few things on Spotify now but haven't pursued the music biz in decades. Still miss playing out. My old bass player was on Ozzfest with Motograter as one of the guitarists in the 90s. He's the guy with incredibly long hair. He went on to be a legal weed farmer. Our drummer eventually died from heroin. Man he was f***ing good. RIP.

What could have been...

Nirvana sort of killed the metal scene. Of course Metallica was so scared they put out the black album. Really wasn't till Korn came in mid-90s with a different enough style get heaviness alive against the Pearl Jams/Soundgardens etc..

 

[DWGie26]

Our top 6 Dee are really good when they are all healthy:

JC6-JC74
Sandin-Roy
Fever-TVR

And two-deep from there. Not that I want to see Mac and AA play a lot they have been just fine for a few games. Big difference from past few years.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Sitting here reading these posts, picturing you metalheads with your long hair lol….

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Auston Matthews has missed 59 career games, and played in 575

Connor McDavid has missed 59 career games, and played in 656

Alex Ovechkin has missed 59 career games, and played in 1,439

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Auston Matthews has missed 59 career games, and played in 575

Connor McDavid has missed 59 career games, and played in 656

Alex Ovechkin has missed 59 career games, and played in 1,439

None are as durable…that’s why nobody playing will sniff his final totals….

 

[BobRossColton]

I'm curious about trading for fehervary, what would he cost?

 

[usiel]

I'm curious about trading for fehervary, what would he cost?

He's pretty locked in the top 4. Not sure what one could offer that would make sense. An older dman who is better that Fever or a younger dman who might have a potential higher upside? Just not seeing where it makes sense.

 

[DWGie26]

He's pretty locked in the top 4. Not sure what one could offer that would make sense. An older dman who is better that Fever or a younger dman who might have a potential higher upside? Just not seeing where it makes sense.

I think he is 3LD when Cherchyn is healthy. He can go up and down the lineup but I’m not sure we can pay him more than 3.5M. And that is expensive for a 3LD with Sandin at 4.6m. He might be a good trade piece in a year or two.

 

[usiel]

I think he is 3LD when Cherchyn is healthy. He can go up and down the lineup but I’m not sure we can pay him more than 3.5M. And that is expensive for a 3LD with Sandin at 4.6m. He might be a good trade piece in a year or two.

Is Sandin really going to stay as a capital?

 

[DWGie26]

Is Sandin really going to stay as a capital?

I think he is starting to look like a top 4, two-way defenseman that is playing at or above his contract of 4.6m. So yeah, I think he stays a capital. Fever is the one more likely to be moved because he will be due a raise in two years. both won’t be here in two years.

 

[BobRossColton]

He's pretty locked in the top 4. Not sure what one could offer that would make sense. An older dman who is better that Fever or a younger dman who might have a potential higher upside? Just not seeing where it makes sense.

A little bit bigger package Gulyayev+Dehaan+25 2nd for dowd+fehervary?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think he is starting to look like a top 4, two-way defenseman that is playing at or above his contract of 4.6m. So yeah, I think he stays a capital. Fever is the one more likely to be moved because he will be due a raise in two years. both won’t be here in two years.

I think that’s likely in the next 6-7 months….basically they already bet on Sandin and it’s up to Fever to take that next step or be moved (probably with at least a year left on his current deal)…

 

[twabby]

A little bit bigger package Gulyayev+Dehaan+25 2nd for dowd+fehervary?

I'd be much more hesitant to give up Dowd than Fehervary given how much WSH relies on the 4th line now, but I'd do this trade mainly because I love Gulyayev as a prospect and because Washington has done a great job drafting in the second round of late.

It would sting a bit in the short term though.

 

[DWGie26]

I'd be much more hesitant to give up Dowd than Fehervary given how much WSH relies on the 4th line now, but I'd do this trade mainly because I love Gulyayev as a prospect and because Washington has done a great job drafting in the second round of late.

It would sting a bit in the short term though.

I think we’ll actually re-sign Dowd for 1 or 2 years. He has more in the tank and he is a stabilizing force on 4th line. I don’t think Sutter is answer. Rybinski not quite ready yet.

 

[g00n]

I was trying to remember when writing that post let me look at the tracks....Ah it was track one Cowboys in Hell.

Bass player. Was a fun metal band back then but a little behind the curve on the thrash genre and its life span. We definitely were the best metal band in the DC/Baltimore area for a few years. Got to record a three demo of at Pyramid Studios in Ithaca NY with Alex Perialas (he was instrumental in coming up that the thrash metal guitar sound especially with Anthrax/Stormtroopers of Death.

My last band/project was the most successful was more heavy rock. Signed to an indie label, recorded a real pro album and even filmed a video (both ended up never getting released due to the label farsically not able to come to an agreement with a distributor for a few years. Got to play at CBGBs a couple of times before it went away. About the only venue we didn't get in in the DC/Baltimore area with the new 9:30 club.

One of the tracks from that unreleased album:




Man trying to remember if I ever saw Egypt or not. My first foray to the Bayou was in '87 to see Megadeth (Peace Sells album tour) and Overkill (taking over). Was underage so my dad, who worked in DC, went down during the day and talked to the club manager and managed to make a deal with her that we could get in for the show (my dad had to come also). Definitely one of the peak cool dad moments. Still have ticket stub. And the show was bad ass. Tbh my bro and I were more into Overkill than Megadeth.

Ran into the main guitar player of Overkill in '91 Foundations Forum in LA (was the biggest metal/rock thing like SXSW is now) and totally fangirled on Bengt Gustafson (believe that was his name). Also talked with Alice and Chains drummers for like an hour completely wasted I have no recollection of the conversation at an invite label thing. Best thing was seeing Pearl Jam play like acoustic version of tracks from the album Ten before it came out in a label booth. Both my singer and I after a couple of songs looked at each other and said these guys SUCK, hah.

Very cool. I'd like to hear Silence if that's anywhere.

I've done a lot of different projects from Techno/Industrial/Dance to rap to Zappa-esque parody to Grateful Dead style/cover and everything in-between. Some online, some not. A Cro-Mags cover went to Harley and he was impressed. Kerry King was played our tape and he dug it. But beyond little shit like that we never really promoted or hired managers, etc. and only stuck together for a few years due to craziness.

Here's some of what I have on Spotify:





That's the name of the power trio from the 90s. Yes it's a real band name lol.

Songs 3-6 are from a 3rd generation cassette tape so the quality is sus. The others are me playing every instrument/vox and recorded in my "studio" a little over a decade ago. Someone else put it on Spotify because it wasn't really available anywhere and they thought it should be, so I just said "whatever" and approved it. Hence the album title. Very Gen X, I guess.

The 90s trio broke up due to misc Spinal Tap reasons. I would say we were influenced by a lot of shit, but for me it was Kyuss in particular. We covered Sepultura, Prong, White Zombie, AIC, Nirvana, Korn, etc.


Here's another solo thing from a few years ago that's even heavier, or at least faster. Kind of taking the piss out of all the over the top death metal imagery. Just for fun:




"Laughing Burning Witch" is the one to play if you only listen to one.

Haven't recorded anything in a long time. Life gets in the way now.

This can all move to OT if needed, of course.

But to bring it back on topic, google "Pummeler Ovechkin" for another one. I think Ovie commented on the song back in the day. Can't post the link here because the album art is very NSFW and the lyrics are also EXTREMELY NSFW. lol

 

[usiel]

I'll have to watch the vid later when I can crank it.

What a great time to be a metal head.

I have a few things on Spotify now but haven't pursued the music biz in decades. Still miss playing out. My old bass player was on Ozzfest with Motograter as one of the guitarists in the 90s. He's the guy with incredibly long hair. He went on to be a legal weed farmer. Our drummer eventually died from heroin. Man he was f***ing good. RIP.

What could have been...

Yeah I'm done after the last band. Too many of the best ever combos to try and grind again. Got enough of the bucket list other than doing a it full time to be good about. Still have my gear and gotta decide at what point I give much of it back to the world.

My old Silence rhythm guitar players was bad ass. Perialas (who had been around Scot Ian and James Hetfield) put him right up there those two. He ended up playing with Sevendust for a few years. Also still remember him convincing a mutual band friend who was a fierce street fighter to try and provoke into fighting at a house party (years after that band broke up). I was kinda puzzled what the guy was doing but at least I knew he wouldn't cold cock me. At some point he gave up. There was one guy that had my back in the situ who I had only met a few weeks ago as I could see he was positioned behind me during the BS. Later found out ALL the folks at the party who I new really well didn't give me the heads up what was going on. Pretty eye opening who actually has your back.

 

[EXTRAS]

Do you guys thinknmcmichael will eventually become a center? Is he the real deal?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do you guys thinknmcmichael will eventually become a center? Is he the real deal?

Nope…..I don’t think the Caps see him as a Center.

He’ll cool off but he’s breaking out yes….