Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[twabby]

When Caps traded Dillon to make space they got 2 (two) second round picks for him.

Surely they can unload one of Jensen and TVR (both up there in age, not a lot of future potential) and get something in the process.

AA and Fever can play RD.

Fever-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen
Sandin-AA

makes much more sense than Sandin with Carlson or Jensen while simultaneously without Orlov

They just re-signed Jensen and TVR. I don’t think they are going to trade either, nor should they. If they were going to get a good return for either I think they would have been gone at the TDL.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

The calls to rebuild are tiresome and pointless. They’ve said word for word they made a promise to Ovechkin not to rebuild while he’s under contract. Period. End of story. They’re not going to trade guys like Carlson and Wilson while Ovi is still under contract. The guys they’d want to trade like Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Mantha don’t have the value to bring back premium assets necessary for a rebuild (or they can’t be traded at all). And it’s harder for Ovi to get the record if the team stinks. So, yeah, for those of you clamoring for a full teardown and rebuild, prepare to be perpetually disappointed due to the gap in your expectations vs the reality of what’s going to happen. And who knows, you may get your wish anyway as they could stink without trying to rebuild.

In two years this team will be dramatically different. Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, and Mantha will all be gone. They only have six skaters (Ovechkin, Carlson, Strome, Milano, Jensen, TvR) and one goalie currently signed through the 2025-26 season. We knew at some point the core would age and their contracts would be troublesome and now that point is here. BMac will do what he can to navigate it. What’s likely going to happen is MacLellan and team do what they can to aggressively make over the team to try and be competitive while also making them younger and moving on from established names. The worst thing that could happen is Ted pulls a Ted and fires BMac for being pragmatic about the situation and brings in someone who will trade futures to try and salvage the last year or two of Ovi.

The end of the Ovi era is pretty much here. Guys who have been household names for 5, 10, 15 years are on the 17th or 18th hole of their careers. It’s inevitable that there will be some pain as the team transitions to a new phase and the next two seasons will be the period where the transition is felt the most.

 

[marcel snapshot]

The calls to rebuild are tiresome and pointless. They’ve said word for word they made a promise to Ovechkin not to rebuild while he’s under contract. Period. End of story. They’re not going to trade guys like Carlson and Wilson while Ovi is still under contract. The guys they’d want to trade like Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Mantha don’t have the value to bring back premium assets necessary for a rebuild (or they can’t be traded at all). And it’s harder for Ovi to get the record if the team stinks. So, yeah, for those of you clamoring for a full teardown and rebuild, prepare to be perpetually disappointed due to the gap in your expectations vs the reality of what’s going to happen. And who knows, you may get your wish anyway as they could stink without trying to rebuild.

I think you've accurately articulated how management sees it. I just think they're seeing it . . . . poorly. The longer they take to drastically change the way the team plays hockey, the longer they're going to be in the wilderness.

Teams like the Devils, Panthers, and Kraken all play a swarming, strongly supportive, 5-man game with a tremendous amount of continuous motion without the puck. The Devs made the Rangers look old, and the Panthers did the same to the Bs - and we play older than both those teams. With the exception of maybe Nic Dowd (and some of his linemates), our movement without the puck is awful, and we are way too disconnected way too often.

My fear is that this team is way too full of guys like Tarasenko and Kane, whose one-dimensionality and dependence upon others to both get them the puck and create space for them was completely exposed by the Devils. The Rangers had two of those guys - we have like 4 in our top 6, and D guy in Carlson who's also pretty dependent on others covering for his D shortcomings. This is not conducive to producing a connected, supportive, consistent 5-man attack, and 5-man defense.

To me, trying to run the team so that it maximizes the chance for Ovi to get the record is dangerously equivalent to postponing change - and when you're postponing necessary change, you're regressing. I would hope that we hire a new coach who gets that. I feel like BMac knows that - but I fear it's not a message Ted is willing or able to hear.

 

[Langway]

You wonder if the Leafs lose to Tkachuk and the Panthers how they'll respond. They may not have an easier path to the SCF than the one in front of them.

It could be a perfect storm for them to back up the truck for Wilson. Not that I'd want to move him but if teams come with massive offers they'd need to consider it.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Backstrom knows how he is skating. He knows better than anyone. We’ve got 60 days of simple training to see if things improve (May and June…hell, you could argue all of April as well!).

Skating is easily timed. If he’s not getting faster at all, like at all, then he should know it’s not going to happen (or at least not that fast). Even if you add July and August to his training, if he’s plateaued……he’s plateaued.

LTIR him after the draft and as we roll into FA.

Caps can also go over by 10% during the summer. So there is that.

 

[Misery74]

The calls to rebuild are tiresome and pointless. They’ve said word for word they made a promise to Ovechkin not to rebuild while he’s under contract. Period. End of story. They’re not going to trade guys like Carlson and Wilson while Ovi is still under contract. The guys they’d want to trade like Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Mantha don’t have the value to bring back premium assets necessary for a rebuild (or they can’t be traded at all). And it’s harder for Ovi to get the record if the team stinks. So, yeah, for those of you clamoring for a full teardown and rebuild, prepare to be perpetually disappointed due to the gap in your expectations vs the reality of what’s going to happen. And who knows, you may get your wish anyway as they could stink without trying to rebuild.

In two years this team will be dramatically different. Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, and Mantha will all be gone. They only have six skaters (Ovechkin, Carlson, Strome, Milano, Jensen, TvR) and one goalie currently signed through the 2025-26 season. We knew at some point the core would age and their contracts would be troublesome and now that point is here. BMac will do what he can to navigate it. What’s likely going to happen is MacLellan and team do what they can to aggressively make over the team to try and be competitive while also making them younger and moving on from established names. The worst thing that could happen is Ted pulls a Ted and fires BMac for being pragmatic about the situation and brings in someone who will trade futures to try and salvage the last year or two of Ovi.

The end of the Ovi era is pretty much here. Guys who have been household names for 5, 10, 15 years are on the 17th or 18th hole of their careers. It’s inevitable that there will be some pain as the team transitions to a new phase and the next two seasons will be the period where the transition is felt the most.

The team stinks now, so how will that help OV break the record?

I say, Iet the kids play, and let the chips fall where they may. Let’s not make things worse by adding big contracts. You are right, things ease up in two years, we will not be competitive until then.

The coaching hire is the most critical thing at this point.

 

[Rayquaza64]

I have a hunch the team is going to look pretty different even next season compared to this one. They’re going to try and shake things up to prepare themselves for both now and the future (and they have to if they want any hope at giving Ovi one last hurrah.) The McMike/AA/Hendrix/Iorio/Sandin/MF/Miro group (or what they potentially get in return for any of them) are going to have to be factors into this

 

[895]

Not gonna lie, if Backstrom comes back this year I am going to lose a tiny little bit of respect for him. It's over man.

 

[Lindemann]

I am getting old.

Do we usually hear about who we are looking at/interviewing during our coach search?

I can't remember the last few times. The one I do remember is Trotz.

So far, nothing has come out

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I am getting old.

Do we usually hear about who we are looking at/interviewing during our coach search?

I can't remember the last few times. The one I do remember is Trotz.

So far, nothing has come out

The season is still going. Last year Brunette was fired after the second round. You’d figure Gallant will be fired at some point. Maybe if the Leafs blow it to the Panthers in a quick series Keefe would be in trouble as well. The AHL playoffs are just getting started too. Really the only candidates available now are from teams who lost or didn’t make the playoffs or retreads who have already been fired. Given what MacLellan said he was looking for in a new coach I suspect most of his preferred candidates aren’t available to be interviewed at the moment except for Halpern.

 

[um]

nvm.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not gonna lie, if Backstrom comes back this year I am going to lose a tiny little bit of respect for him. It's over man.

 

[TheFountainhead]

 

[Langway]

19's not hanging it up mid-summer based on lap times or something like that. He may not even be on the ice until much later. Who knows. They're just going to have to work around it or try to work out a trade if they're so impatient. He intends to play. He feels good. Either support him and let him give it a go or bail. Don't just sort of sit back and question him into retirement when by all accounts he feels physically great post-surgery. Forcing him to work on some accelerated timeline of their own making so they can spend his AAV elsewhere isn't a great look. I share the skepticism that he reverts back to form but he deserves respect and support at least.

It's a massive short-term obstacle to build around him to be sure but all of their issues don't boil away simply by having more money to throw around. It's still likely to be a short supply of impact talent to aggressively go after, esp. at center. More substantial upgrades may need to wait a year as a more equitable resolution materializes re: 19 and also when there's perhaps a deeper talent pool available.

Getting rid of Kuznetsov & Mantha will be a good first step. More modest younger upside plays ala Strome would be fine work. They should focus on value and then go from there. Additions don't need to be made all at once. Saving ammo for moves down the line may be the way to go if supply doesn't quite match up. They'll be motivated to be active but as much as they may want to make a statement it's hard to immediately buy your way back in. NYR/PIT may open the door for them some but more substantial improvement is more likely a longer timeframe kind of thing.

 

[Calicaps]

I think you've accurately articulated how management sees it. I just think they're seeing it . . . . poorly. The longer they take to drastically change the way the team plays hockey, the longer they're going to be in the wilderness.

Teams like the Devils, Panthers, and Kraken all play a swarming, strongly supportive, 5-man game with a tremendous amount of continuous motion without the puck. The Devs made the Rangers look old, and the Panthers did the same to the Bs - and we play older than both those teams. With the exception of maybe Nic Dowd (and some of his linemates), our movement without the puck is awful, and we are way too disconnected way too often.

My fear is that this team is way too full of guys like Tarasenko and Kane, who's one-dimensionality and dependence upon others to both get them the puck and create space for them was completely exposed by the Cats. The Rangers had two of those guys - we have like 4 in our top 6, and D guy in Carlson who's also pretty dependent on others covering for his D shortcomings. This is not conducive to producing a connected, supportive, consistent 5-man attack, and 5-man defense.

To me, trying to run the team so that it maximizes the chance for Ovi to get the record is dangerously equivalent to postponing change - and when you're postponing necessary change, you're regressing. I would hope that we hire a new coach who gets that. I feel like BMac knows that - but I fear it's not a message Ted is willing or able to hear.

It's a message that Ovi isn't willing to hear. He does not want to be a part of what you're calling for. He has said it many times. And the front office, recognizing that he deserves to be treated with some respect and that him breaking the record in a Caps sweater and going out on his own terms is good for the franchise, is honoring that. And yes, that means postponing some change. That's the reality. It's not just Ted; it's the captain. He's earned it. I struggle to understand why folks refuse to accept this.

 

[Misery74]

It's a message that Ovi isn't willing to hear. He does not want to be a part of what you're calling for. He has said it many times. And the front office, recognizing that he deserves to be treated with some respect and that him breaking the record in a Caps sweater and going out on his own terms is good for the franchise, is honoring that. And yes, that means postponing some change. That's the reality. It's not just Ted; it's the captain. He's earned it. I struggle to understand why folks refuse to accept this.

It’s a fair question. If OV and Nick took discounts though, it would have made it a lot easier. They both took premiums, which is their right to do, but it makes it very difficult to achieve what he is asking for.

It really is that simple. We don’t have the cap space or flexibility to do what he is asking for, and he is a big reason why.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think you've accurately articulated how management sees it. I just think they're seeing it . . . . poorly. The longer they take to drastically change the way the team plays hockey, the longer they're going to be in the wilderness.

Teams like the Devils, Panthers, and Kraken all play a swarming, strongly supportive, 5-man game with a tremendous amount of continuous motion without the puck. The Devs made the Rangers look old, and the Panthers did the same to the Bs - and we play older than both those teams. With the exception of maybe Nic Dowd (and some of his linemates), our movement without the puck is awful, and we are way too disconnected way too often.

My fear is that this team is way too full of guys like Tarasenko and Kane, who's one-dimensionality and dependence upon others to both get them the puck and create space for them was completely exposed by the Cats. The Rangers had two of those guys - we have like 4 in our top 6, and D guy in Carlson who's also pretty dependent on others covering for his D shortcomings. This is not conducive to producing a connected, supportive, consistent 5-man attack, and 5-man defense.

To me, trying to run the team so that it maximizes the chance for Ovi to get the record is dangerously equivalent to postponing change - and when you're postponing necessary change, you're regressing. I would hope that we hire a new coach who gets that. I feel like BMac knows that - but I fear it's not a message Ted is willing or able to hear.

Bolded two things to respond to. First point: I'm not saying you're wrong and neither is the team -- everyone is aligned that they need to get younger and faster. They don't need to do a full blown rebuild to do that. For context, since Ovechkin's rookie year the Panthers have qualified for the playoffs four times, including the last two years. So over the same length of time it takes for someone to be born through being old enough to drive, they made the playoffs twice. The Devils have made the playoffs twice in the last eleven years. They each spent over a decade compiling the rosters they have now and it took them being irrelevant and shitty for most of that decade+ to do so. Doing a rebuild doesn't guarantee you anything and they can and should try to remain as competitive as possible for as long as possible. If it doesn't work then a rebuild becomes inevitable in a few years.

Second point: Ovechkin didn't ask them to help him get the record, he asked them to promise that they would try to win another Cup if he re-signed. I do not understand why people think they are running a team in hopes of getting him a record and by doing so it's somehow in their best interest to get worse as a team. Makes no sense to me when people say they're only trying to get Ovi the record... how does getting worse help him do that? They are trying to get better so they can be a playoff team, not just so Ovi can score a bunch of goals, because #8 said he didn't want to be on a shitty team chasing a record for the end of his career.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

It’s a fair question. If OV and Nick took discounts though, it would have made it a lot easier. They both took premiums, which is their right to do, but it makes it very difficult to achieve what he is asking for.

It really is that simple. We don’t have the cap space or flexibility to do what he is asking for, and he is a big reason why.

Nick is, sure, but Ovechkin just scored 42 goals in 73 games. Only one other guy on the team scored 20. They went 0-7-0 without him. Saying he's a big reason why they can't compete is total nonsense. The big reasons they didn't compete this year were 19, 92, 39, and 77 (and 74's injury). 8 earned and continues to earn his money.

 

[marcel snapshot]

I'm not sure I agree that we can't play differently with Ovie in the lineup - we did. If I'm the Caps, I'd look real hard at why the team played well from the day after Thanksgiving until Jan. 1, when Ovie scored like 16 goals and the Caps were 13-4-1. That's the closest they came to playing a connected 5-man game with everybody playing solid at both ends of the ice. Figure out why they could play like that for 5 weeks, and then not do it again for the rest of the season. Obviously, Nick was out the whole time, and Osh was out for about half the time - that probably tells us something. But we also showed an ability to play like successful NHL teams in 2022-23 with Ovie playing and scoring.

 

[Misery74]

Nick is, sure, but Ovechkin just scored 42 goals in 73 games. Only one other guy on the team scored 20. They went 0-7-0 without him. Saying he's a big reason why they can't compete is total nonsense. The big reasons they didn't compete this year were 19, 92, 39, and 77 (and 74's injury). 8 earned and continues to earn his money.

I agree, he earns his money. But players positioned similarly took less to play with their teams. Look at Malkin, Letang, Bergeron, all took big to huge discounts. Ovechkin did not. If you aren’t going to take a discount, it makes it difficult to complain.

That’s all I’m saying.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Great news on Halpy. My prediction is one of Carberry, Halpern, or Brunette. All have Caps ties and will run innovative, modern systems and empower + develop our young talent.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I agree, he earns his money. But players positioned similarly took less to play with their teams. Look at Malkin, Letang, Bergeron, all room big ti huge discounts. Ovechkin did not.

Bergeron's contract is leading to Boston having a cap overage penalty next season. Malkin had big durability concerns -- he's only played 70+ games (or the equivalent) once since 2012 -- and Ovechkin outproduced him in every season since then except for 2017-18. The situations are not the same.

 

[trick9]

I'm not sure I agree that we can't play differently with Ovie in the lineup - we did. If I'm the Caps, I'd look real hard at why the team played well from the day after Thanksgiving until Jan. 1, when Ovie scored like 16 goals and the Caps were 13-4-1. That's the closest they came to playing a connected 5-man game with everybody playing solid at both ends of the ice. Figure out why they could play like that for 5 weeks, and then not do it again for the rest of the season. Obviously, Nick was out the whole time, and Osh was out for about half the time - that probably tells us something. But we also showed an ability to play like successful NHL teams in 2022-23 with Ovie playing and scoring.

It's not just this season. The wheels came off last season too when the injured older guys came back to the line-up.

We have 43-25-14 in the last 82 games without Backstrom. Obviously it's not just him but something happens to the team when he returns. Maybe rest of the team takes their foot off the gas.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Second point: Ovechkin didn't ask them to help him get the record, he asked them to promise that they would try to win another Cup if he re-signed. I do not understand why people think they are running a team in hopes of getting him a record and by doing so it's somehow in their best interest to get worse as a team. Makes no sense to me when people say they're only trying to get Ovi the record... how does getting worse help him do that? They are trying to get better so they can be a playoff team, not just so Ovi can score a bunch of goals, because #8 said he didn't want to be on a shitty team chasing a record for the end of his career.

First off, appreciate the thoughtfulness of this and other responses to my original comment. Being able to discuss this stuff, and disagree about it in an amicable way is why I've been hanging out here for a lot of years.

I agree with the bolded part. But I think part of what that means is that Ovi has to change the way he plays to some degree, especially 5x5. He's been asked to do it before, and he did under Trotz - but now he needs to do it again because not only is he older and slower but the game itself is younger and faster. And that means it's more important than ever that he be connected with the other guys he's on the ice with, and be really selective about jumping the zone early, saving energy for the exit (that doesn't come) leaning the wrong way, or doing other things that a lot of goal scorers do - maybe especially as they get older.

If that means a drop in shot totals or scoring chances, then so be it - because the Caps of the last couple of years give up A LOT of high-danger chances. He can still feast on the PP and still score 5x5, but if part of the equation is not to suck, everybody has to do more to suppress scoring chances. I fear - and obviously I can be wrong on this - that the emphasis on the record as a team goal makes that kind of adaptation harder - for Ovi individually and the team.

 

[Misery74]

Bergeron's contract is leading to Boston having a cap overage penalty next season. Malkin had big durability concerns -- he's only played 70+ games (or the equivalent) once since 2012 -- and Ovechkin outproduced him in every season since then except for 2017-18. The situations are not the same.

They are the same. They are all elite level players that choose to resign with their current teams. All probably could have gotten more on the open market, but chose to take a discount.

Whether he is overpaid or not really isn’t an issue. The issue is he takes up $9.2m against the cap. The salary cap is the enemy of what OV wants. It isn’t changing because he’s chasing a record, he wants to compete for another Cup. We are dealing within these constraints. He could have taken less. Thanks s Alex Ovechkin worth every penny, yes. But if was so concerned about being competitive, he, and especially Nick could have taken less.