Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Random schmoe]

If I'm reading the rules right, Miro's contract is eligible to slide if he plays under 10 games in the NHL.

(I'm used to this scenario when dealing with a Canadian junior player, who can't play in the AHL at age 19, but I guess since Miro was drafted from an international league, he is free to play for Hershey at that age.)

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

825K AAV for Alexeyev

 

[Raikkonen]

Sandin is the last D I want to see defending in the D zone.

Maybe they will bring back Orlov and see if AA can outplay TVR?

 

[Calicaps]

Sandin is the last D I want to see defending in the D zone.

Maybe they will bring back Orlov and see if AA can outplay TVR?

Sandin is young. He can still improve.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Sandin is the last D I want to see defending in the D zone.

Maybe they will bring back Orlov and see if AA can outplay TVR?

Already shitting on Sandin so soon? That was quick.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Our defense is young and can definitely take some strides, 3 young LHD with a vet RHD for each one is probably fine especially considering we should likely be focusing our resources into upgrading the forward core

 

[Raikkonen]

Already shitting on Sandin so soon? That was quick.

Should have emphasized last D from Caps roster. Weakest link defensively.

I don't see that change any time soon.

 

[Brian23]

I love the AA deal, but I do find it interesting it's for 2 years. I wonder if they look to move Fehervary for an upgrade and bring in a vet LD. Think AA is cheaper then what Martin will come in at, and probably gives you the same "value" of play. Fever better on defense, but AA has more all around play. Think he pairs well with TVR too.

 

[Ovi895]

Sandin is the last D I want to see defending in the D zone.

Maybe they will bring back Orlov and see if AA can outplay TVR?

Its pretty clear they intend to roll with what they ended the season with plus the new guy from ovrseas. A 3 million TVR in the press box on a team with the Backstrom contract is non tenable

Given that BMac's UFA pool is gonna be a subset of 1) UFAs that will settle for a 3 year deal and 2) UFAs that will go to the oldest team in the league that just missed the playoffs, they might as well not bother with the UFA market since it will make the McPhee July 1sts look bountiful. Their best bet would be to start the season with as much cap space as they can relying on all the youngsters they can cram on the roster that might be NHL ready (Protas, McMichael, Snively, Frank, even Lapierre should be ready for a cup of coffee with their youngest LD core in the NHL on the back end), get by on their speed and adrenaline while they can (see 2021-2022), and then once they start to fall off use pro rated cap space/retentions at the deadline to artificially inflate the roster. Basically what the Isles did when they couldn't free the cap to sign Kadri - go into the season with in house replacements (and their version of Alexeyev traded for from Montreal) and then trade for Horvat as early as they could in the season. Got them to the playoffs despite being worse on paper than the year before

Already shitting on Sandin so soon? That was quick.

he did manage to be on the ice for 32 GA in his time here. Garbage time or not that's impressively

 

[Raikkonen]

TVR is 3M now? Didn't realize

Trade him!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I love the AA deal, but I do find it interesting it's for 2 years. I wonder if they look to move Fehervary for an upgrade and bring in a vet LD. Think AA is cheaper then what Martin will come in at, and probably gives you the same "value" of play. Fever better on defense, but AA has more all around play. Think he pairs well with TVR too.

I think they would rather trade an extended AA and keep the better player and try to push Fever down a pair In an upgrade move. i think they’ll stand pat with both unless a killer offer presents itself.

 

[Brian23]

I think they would rather trade an extended AA and keep the better player and try to push Fever down a pair In an upgrade move. i think they’ll stand pat with both unless a killer offer presents itself.

But one of them is gonna come in at probably close to 3 million dollars, the other is 895. The ole 80% skill for 20% cost move.

The other issue is where does Fehervary fit in the lineup? For some reason, they wouldn't put Sandin with Carlson so we really have no idea how they'll pair up so you now have Sandin locked to Jensen right now. AA isn't a top pairing guy, so you're locking him into TVR. The issue is we've got like 2 years of data showing Fehervary hasn't been able to play with Carlson since he got COVID. Unless you want to run AA with Carlson (which we again don't really know how that'll work), they just don't have a really good partner for him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But one of them is gonna come in at probably close to 3 million dollars, the other is 895. The ole 80% skill for 20% cost move.

The other issue is where does Fehervary fit in the lineup? For some reason, they wouldn't put Sandin with Carlson so we really have no idea how they'll pair up so you now have Sandin locked to Jensen right now. AA isn't a top pairing guy, so you're locking him into TVR. The issue is we've got like 2 years of data showing Fehervary hasn't been able to play with Carlson since he got COVID. Unless you want to run AA with Carlson (which we again don't really know how that'll work), they just don't have a really good partner for him.

The money just isn’t that big of a deal and Fever is the better and PROVEN player. If they were to acquire a top pair D, you slot Fever and Sandin down. I’m not getting rid of the better player, I’m figuring out the right pairings instead.

That said….anyone can go in a good hockey trade, I just don’t expect them to focus on the D……guess we’ll see.

 

[pman25]

i hope Fehervary doesn't cost $3 mil. Just give him the same contract Liljegren and Sandin got in Toronto. He has no arb rights. Two years, $1.5AAV

Please don't extend him for 7 years

 

[twabby]

i hope Fehervary doesn't cost $3 mil. Just give him the same contract Liljegren and Sandin got in Toronto. He has no arb rights. Two years, $1.5AAV

Please don't extend him for 7 years

Evolving Hockey's contract projections just came out and they have Fehervary predicted at 3 years x $2.8 million. That's a bit rich for my blood. If they decide to go long term it would be in the $4 million to $5 million range according to EH. That's not good either!

I still think Fehervary would be better suited as a piece in a trade for an impact player up front. Then just sign like Carson Soucy or whatever to replace Fehervary.

 

[Kalopsia]

Evolving Hockey's contract projections just came out and they have Fehervary predicted at 3 years x $2.8 million. That's a bit rich for my blood. If they decide to go long term it would be in the $4 million to $5 million range according to EH. That's not good either!

I still think Fehervary would be better suited as a piece in a trade for an impact player up front. Then just sign like Carson Soucy or whatever to replace Fehervary.

What are they projecting for Orlov?

 

[Cappy76]

2 year 1 way deal for 1.65 with an AAV of 825k for AA. Pretty solid IMO nothing to complain about.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Really hoping we are in a position to draft Michkov. Can’t think of a better situation for team and player. Whether we move up in the lottery or he slips because of the Russian Factor (which has only benefited us over the last two decades). Bedard is a pipe dream.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

@twabby Big brain move would be to trade Fever in a package for a top-six stud and bring back Dima.

 

[Misery74]

I mean, it's not a lie. We're in deep shit going forward...should be sellers again next deadline to aquire more assets unless something miraculous happens. Ovi is going to get the record no matter who he's playing with. Only injury could prevent him from the record at this point. We've got some solid pieces in the pipeline assuming they pan out but Miro is really the only one with all star caliber potential imo. Hopefully they can add another nice piece this draft to pair with him. Mikey and Lappy are nice players but neither are really that bonafide #1 center type guy. They're both complementary centers on a scoring line that's carrier by a star winger at best.

Truth is, we don’t know what CMM or Jimi bring, Laviolette saw to that.

But largely, I feel the same. It’s time to rebuild. OV will get his record, but we aren’t close to a Cup contender. It’s time to stop pretending we are.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[twabby]

What are they projecting for Orlov?

3 x $5.6 million - 14%
4 x $5.8 million - 24%
5 x $6.3 million - 31%
6 x $6.6 million - 18%

And then some negligible probabilities for 1, 2, 7, and 8 year deals.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

@twabby Big brain move would be to trade Fever in a package for a top-six stud and bring back Dima.

I mean, these are the types of moves we ALL hope GMBM is tinkering with right? To pull off a meaningful facelift, they will need big brain moves.

3 x $5.6 million - 14%
4 x $5.8 million - 24%
5 x $6.3 million - 31%
6 x $6.6 million - 18%

And then some negligible probabilities for 1, 2, 7, and 8 year deals.

Seems looooow. 5 or 6 at 6.5 maybe…wonder how many teams need a top pair LD that can afford him.

 

[twabby]

@twabby Big brain move would be to trade Fever in a package for a top-six stud and bring back Dima.

I don't know how I feel about Orlov going forward. They got his best years already and I think it's fair to wonder if he's going to be a player that ages gracefully or if he is going to follow the standard aging curve. He did have probably his worst regular season in Washington last year and at age 32 you have to wonder if it's a sign of things to come or a one-off deal.

That said I also think Fehervary is very replaceable so if he needs to be a component of a trade for a key addition then you do it without hesitation, even if they decide not to bring Orlov back. There will be another Gustafsson or TVR or whoever in the free agent market that can replace Fehervary pretty easily IMO. One of the biggest mistakes they can make going forward is becoming attached to depth players or marginal players just because they are "their guys."

 

[Calicaps]

3 x $5.6 million - 14%
4 x $5.8 million - 24%
5 x $6.3 million - 31%
6 x $6.6 million - 18%

And then some negligible probabilities for 1, 2, 7, and 8 year deals.

I'd do 4 x $6.3M easy... more money for less term.

I don't know how I feel about Orlov going forward. They got his best years already and I think it's fair to wonder if he's going to be a player that ages gracefully or if he is going to follow the standard aging curve. He did have probably his worst regular season in Washington last year and at age 32 you have to wonder if it's a sign of things to come or a one-off deal.

That said I also think Fehervary is very replaceable so if he needs to be a component of a trade for a key addition then you do it without hesitation, even if they decide not to bring Orlov back. They'll be another Gustafsson or TVR or whoever in the free agent market that can replace Fehervary pretty easily IMO.

Hard to evaluate players based on teamwide suck. I suspect he's got at least a couple of good years left. And a front-loaded contract makes him tradeable later.