Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[g00n]

I’d hope he would be more focused on other things than updating randos in the Internet, but who cares….this issue is nothing.

We all pretty much expect him to bounce back some this season. Let’s just hope we can reclaim some assets when he does.

I think any player advertising "I'm in it for the next contract" is a problem, especially if he has a reputation for coasting.

Coming out and saying this publicly might hurt his trade value. I don't think it's guaranteed every GM in the league is going to have the same cynical opinion of him without this kind of confirmation.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Good thing whoever we trade Mantha to at the deadline prob wont be the team to give him an extension. I dont think this does much to his deadline value if he reaches his 60 point goal.

 

[twabby]

Grier has had a LOT of former teammates. That will happen in a 15 year career. He and Miller were together for 3.2 seasons, and he and Vanek for 3.

In particular, Vanek’s rookie season was Grier’s 10th. Grier then left for 3yrs to be a Shark, where he is now employed. To then rejoin Vanek and Buffalo (and Miller) for the last couple years in his career.

So, your take is that Vanek so “wow’d” Grier in those 3 seasons, while being quite a bit younger, so perhaps Grier took the young forward under his wing, and that relationship blossomed into Grier giving him a job?

Maybe Grier has hired a ton of Ex-Oilers, as he was there for a good 6 years. Goodness, that’s a lot longer than Vanek or Miller.

We should investigate this?

I just think it's funny that I'm supposed to believe these guys can beat spreadsheets if the goal is to produce an optimal on-ice winning outcome.

I'm not experienced in the "work" industry (thank goodness), but even I know businesses in general are pretty inefficient. That's fine if people are happy. Nothing has to be optimized to hell if it's going to cause people to be sad.

But let's frame the discussion in happy/sad terms rather than saying "actually the spreadsheets aren't good at projecting future on-ice performance" without data to back up the claim and with data to support the opposite claim.

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think any player advertising "I'm in it for the next contract" is a problem, especially if he has a reputation for coasting.

Coming out and saying this publicly might hurt his trade value. I don't think it's guaranteed every GM in the league is going to have the same cynical opinion of him without this kind of confirmation.

He could be a 20 goal scorer rental at the deadline…..what’s the going rate on that?

Not sure why it would hurt his value as a rental, but as a longterm acquisition, like Kuzy, the damage is already done and this doesn’t help for sure.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I just think it's funny that I'm supposed to believe these guys can beat spreadsheets if the goal is to produce an optimal on-ice winning outcome.

I'm not experienced in the "work" industry (thank goodness), but even I know businesses in general are pretty inefficient. That's fine if people are happy. Nothing has to be optimized to hell if it's going to cause people to be sad.

But let's frame the discussion in happy/sad terms rather than saying "actually the spreadsheets aren't good at projecting future on-ice performance" without data to back up the claim and with data to support the opposite claim.

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

Who puts in the input into the spread sheets? Is it from practice? Just games?
Wouldnt the people keeping the stats be the scouts doing their job?

 

[g00n]

He could be a 20 goal scorer rental at the deadline…..what’s the going rate on that?

Not sure why it would hurt his value as a rental, but as a longterm acquisition, like Kuzy, the damage is already done and this doesn’t help for sure.

If he's playing well enough to get interest we may not be a selling team so any trade at the TDL involving Mantha might be a "hockey trade" rather than a sell off. If he's stinking then he's a low value rental made even lower by his declaration that he's playing for a new contract and failing.

It's just a dumb thing to say and that's why you almost never see a professional athlete saying it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I just think it's funny that I'm supposed to believe these guys can beat spreadsheets if the goal is to produce an optimal on-ice winning outcome.

I'm not experienced in the "work" industry (thank goodness), but even I know businesses in general are pretty inefficient. That's fine if people are happy. Nothing has to be optimized to hell if it's going to cause people to be sad.

But let's frame the discussion in happy/sad terms rather than saying "actually the spreadsheets aren't good at projecting future on-ice performance" without data to back up the claim and with data to support the opposite claim.

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

I have yet to see a spreadsheet who has built a Cup winner.

The data that powers your spreadsheets are just another type of input that helps an experienced hockey GM craft a roster, similar in value as being able to measure/gauge player intangibles because you have lived and worked IN the actual game for probably 20+ years…..

If he's playing well enough to get interest we may not be a selling team so any trade at the TDL involving Mantha might be a "hockey trade" rather than a sell off.

It's just a dumb thing to say and that's why you almost never see a professional athlete saying it.

That would be our worst scenario….soooooo Redskinny……to let him walk if he rebounds….but…..the point still stands….he will have a fine value as a rental if he’s a 20g guy again….it’s dumb of him, we agree in that.

 

[g00n]

That would be our worst scenario….soooooo Redskinny……to let him walk if he rebounds….

That's the quandary with this guy...seems like a lot of risk this year unless they can pull off a good hockey trade and sell high at the TDL. It's going to be hard to justify that kind of move to fans and the press when you're thinking "it's great he's finally playing well but we don't trust him on a long term deal and don't want to let him walk for nothing".

Best case they really have to have faith he's showing out for a new deal somewhere else and carries the load deep into the playoffs and that seems like a serious ask, though not impossible.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's the quandary with this guy...seems like a lot of risk this year unless they can pull off a good hockey trade and sell high at the TDL. It's going to be hard to justify that kind of move to fans and the press when you're thinking "it's great he's finally playing well but we don't trust him on a long term deal and don't want to let him walk for nothing".

Best case they really have to have faith he's showing out for a new deal somewhere else and carries the load deep into the playoffs and that seems like a serious ask, though not impossible.

F that….if the fans can‘t understand they need to take a more ruthless stance with this guy, or they just don’t get it.

They don’t need to justify anything with the fans regarding recouping value from this asset. Get something from this bum In a trade.

 

[twabby]

Who puts in the input into the spread sheets? Is it from practice? Just games?
Wouldnt the people keeping the stats be the scouts doing their job?

NHLe projections use just goals, assists, age, position, and height/weight. It would be the scorekeepers and the various league statistical offices keeping these stats.

In the NHL public stats are recorded by scorekeepers during every game and they use the NHL Real Time Scoring System which is just a framework for the type of data they capture. Sites like Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz rely on this public RTSS data. There are also private companies like Clearsight Analytics and SportLogiq that do their own collection along with modeling and projection. These are of course private models so I don’t know how they collect their data.

I’m sure internally scouts keep track of some stats for team use but they aren’t publicly available.

 

[g00n]

F that….if the fans can‘t understand they need to take a more ruthless stance with this guy, or they just don’t get it.

They don’t need to justify anything with the fans regarding recouping value from this asset. Get something from this bum In a trade.

Generally agree, but I'm struggling to recall how many times the FO has let a productive player walk for nothing after a good season.

 

[twabby]

I have yet to see a spreadsheet who has built a Cup winner.

The data that powers your spreadsheets are just another type of input that helps an experienced hockey GM craft a roster, similar in value as being able to measure/gauge player intangibles because you have lived and worked IN the actual game for probably 20+ years…..

I imagine there is some ideal weighting of analytics and the other items like synergy (a famous work industry term that I just learned today) and intangibles in order to produce the most wins.

The problem is the weights that teams use right now are so skewed away from analytics that analytics alone are superior to the current overall status quo, at least when it comes to the draft. Maybe the ideal ratio is like 70% analytics vs. 30% synergy. But 100% analytics still beats 20% analytics and 80% synergy (or whatever the current weights are used by the league).

 

[HTFN]

That's the quandary with this guy...seems like a lot of risk this year unless they can pull off a good hockey trade and sell high at the TDL. It's going to be hard to justify that kind of move to fans and the press when you're thinking "it's great he's finally playing well but we don't trust him on a long term deal and don't want to let him walk for nothing".

Best case they really have to have faith he's showing out for a new deal somewhere else and carries the load deep into the playoffs and that seems like a serious ask, though not impossible.

Well...

the only thing is they could just retweet this tweet where he straight up says he knows he's going somewhere else, and they have guys to give chances to that they expect to be here next year. Who could really be that upset about holding a guy to his word?

 

[twabby]

Micah came up with his own all-in-one stat as an analog to WAR. Above are the Capitals forwards.

I am looking forward to some calm and reasoned discussion!

 

[HTFN]

View attachment 737804

Micah came up with his own all-in-one stat as an analog to WAR. Above are the Capitals forwards.

I am looking forward to some calm and reasoned discussion!

hooray, another all in one stat.

do you honestly, truly believe Mantha was the best player on this team last year? Don't hedge around the question, yes or no: was Anthony Mantha the best Washington Capital last season?

said player, meant forward, so don't get weird about that just to avoid answering.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Generally agree, but I'm struggling to recall how many times the FO has let a productive player walk for nothing after a good season.

I agree and that’s led us where we are..bleeding/aging out talent….they need to be more ruthless with an eye towards finding assets that they have a future here in DC.

Can’t help but think a Vegas for example would have already moved him.

 

[Langway]

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

That's far from the entirely of it, though. It's not analytics categorically that I take issue with but rather the idea of building teams via WAR alone or that the draft essentially is only about spamming attempts at stars. It's not the NBA. Analytics unchecked exceeds its usefulness and oversells. It's a common error outsiders tend to make that are looking to make a name for themselves and be disruptive. But if and when they get their foot in the door their insights need to be more qualified and professional if they're going to be part of something bigger than themselves.

We can discuss theoretical wins but, again, come playoff time would I favor a team built so generically? Very likely not. Areas like coaching, tactics and the finer points of team building end up being just as important. I'm all for building teams backed by targeted microstats, ample analytics research and a truly diverse mix of insights. It's treating WAR or NHLe as gospel that grossly oversimplifies and ignores much of the nuts and bolts of team building. Again, if this was the NBA I'd sooner gravitate toward such a star-centered fixation. But the game still doesn't function that way and there's a great deal such a cookie-cutter approach wouldn't be taking into consideration.

Btw, if anyone wants to join a dynasty hockey league as a replacement manager give me a shout.

 

[Calicaps]

F that….if the fans can‘t understand they need to take a more ruthless stance with this guy, or they just don’t get it.

They don’t need to justify anything with the fans regarding recouping value from this asset. Get something from this bum In a trade.

This. He's had his shot. Whatever he does short of competing for an Art Ross is too little too late.

I just think it's funny that I'm supposed to believe these guys can beat spreadsheets if the goal is to produce an optimal on-ice winning outcome.

I'm not experienced in the "work" industry (thank goodness), but even I know businesses in general are pretty inefficient. That's fine if people are happy. Nothing has to be optimized to hell if it's going to cause people to be sad.

But let's frame the discussion in happy/sad terms rather than saying "actually the spreadsheets aren't good at projecting future on-ice performance" without data to back up the claim and with data to support the opposite claim.

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

Must be nice to--I guess--have a trust fund or something and be able to smugly denigrate those who have to or choose to work for a living...

But on the last point, speaking for myself, analytics have zero impact on my enjoyment of the game (though they have a big impact on my enjoyment of this board). What I object to about your approach to analytics is the notion that human beings engaged in human activities can be entirely reduced to numbers. Numbers can be part of the picture when evaluating or conducting human endeavors, but understanding them as the entire image dehumanizes and devalues individuals and what they bring to their pursuits.

 

[g00n]

I agree and that’s led us where we are..bleeding/aging out talent….they need to be more ruthless with an eye towards finding assets that they are with a future here in DC.

Can’t help but think a Vegas for example would have already moved him.

I usually give mgmt a fairly wide berth and the benefit of the doubt. My concern here is their tendency to reward performance with contract extensions and raises.

The biggest exception isn't even a player, it's a coach: Trotz.

So my fear is they'll do the same for Mantha, thinking he's "seen the light" and the new coach has reached him.

If they go that route they'd better at least avoid any sort of NMC and only offer what they can reasonably trade if Mantha cons them into a deal and then quiet quits again.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Re: extending Mantha —

I would be truly shocked if they did….unless he has some 40/40 campaign or some shit like that.

And even then? They should pull a Semin on him and do 1yr prove it deals, going forward.

He’s gone, no matter what, IMO. It’s just whether he finishes the season here or not.

 

[HTFN]

Re: extending Mantha —

I would be truly shocked if they did….unless he has some 40/40 campaign or some shit like that.

And even then? They should pull a Semin on him and do 1yr prove it deals, going forward.

He’s gone, no matter what, IMO. It’s just whether he finishes the season here or not.

Took the words right out of my mouth, Mantha is done here unless he crushes it and doesn't get a solid UFA offer to the point that coming back to a place he produced on another prove it deal will let him double down on his final career contract and improve his three year trend.

Realistically, he's just gone.

 

[Carlzner]

Meh... I'm no Mantha fan but those comments aren't a big deal. If management can practically come out and say they are actively trying to get rid of him, why can't he be honest about his own future?

 

[Block]

This. He's had his shot. Whatever he does short of competing for an Art Ross is too little too late.


Must be nice to--I guess--have a trust fund or something and be able to smugly denigrate those who have to or choose to work for a living...

But on the last point, speaking for myself, analytics have zero impact on my enjoyment of the game (though they have a big impact on my enjoyment of this board). What I object to about your approach to analytics is the notion that human beings engaged in human activities can be entirely reduced to numbers. Numbers can be part of the picture when evaluating or conducting human endeavors, but understanding them as the entire image dehumanizes and devalues individuals and what they bring to their pursuits.

As someone who builds this stuff for a living, something I regularly tell clients is that anyone who tries to reduce things to a single number is a fool. Data and analytics inform the conversation, they aren't the conversation by itself.

 

[Block]

RMNB had a comment where Mantha said he would work hard in his contract year and then try to find somewhere else.

View attachment 737654

Mantha is okay but everyone is acting like the Caps giving up Vrana was terrible and on par with the Forsberg trade. Mantha is average. People acting like Vrana is good again, no he's not. He's also average. No team won that trade.

This is probably better than him saying "the coach was a jackass who played me out of position and kept changing his mind on what he wanted".

 

[Lou Sassole]

I just think it's funny that I'm supposed to believe these guys can beat spreadsheets if the goal is to produce an optimal on-ice winning outcome.

I'm not experienced in the "work" industry (thank goodness), but even I know businesses in general are pretty inefficient. That's fine if people are happy. Nothing has to be optimized to hell if it's going to cause people to be sad.

But let's frame the discussion in happy/sad terms rather than saying "actually the spreadsheets aren't good at projecting future on-ice performance" without data to back up the claim and with data to support the opposite claim.

I think @Langway 's post about analytics ruining the enjoyment of the game was enlightening. And I imagine others probably feel the same way. I just wish opponents of analytics would be more honest about why they're attacking analytics (it makes them unhappy) instead of contriving reasons to prove why actually they aren't any good at producing wins.

It's not a knock on analytics. It's just crazy to think you can quantify the statistics in a game like hockey, the same way you can in baseball, or even basketball. The game is flowing and nuanced with a lot more players and variables interacting, some of which, are impossible to quantify. Baseball is a series of mostly 1 vs 1 encounters that is much easier to quantify(it's why people score games by hand)which lends itself to better usage of advanced stats. Hockey isn't that, so at best, advanced stats need to be one tool in the tool box.