Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[g00n]

You're moving the goal posts now. You suggested that former players get jobs based on being buddies with the GM instead of demonstrative scouting success. But you can't prove that. And because you can't prove it you're saying something different.

And what exactly is your definition of "pure results"? If you're going to state a fact based on comparison of data than the data points being compared need to be defined and discrete.

I don't think he's moving the goalposts, I think he has the same set of goalposts on wheels that he rolls into every topic: spreadsheets and fancy stats are better than eye test and experience, and everyone who gets a job based on experience is a fraud so hire me to run your team.

 

[twabby]

You're moving the goal posts now. You suggested that former players get jobs based on being buddies with the GM instead of demonstrative scouting success. But you can't prove that. And because you can't prove it you're saying something different.

And what exactly is your definition of "pure results"? If you're going to state a fact based on comparison of data than the data points being compared need to be defined and discrete.

Pure results means cumulative WAR in the NHL for 7 years after being drafted. Under that metric NHLe has performed better than the actual draft. Even if you don’t believe WAR is a good metric, NHLe would have done better if measuring by points and also better if measuring by TOI.

If you think Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek are likely very good hires then I’m not going to be able to convince you otherwise because you’re right I don’t have access to Grier’s hiring process. It was funny to see two former teammates hired, but I think everyone’s free to draw their own conclusions on why they were hired.

 

[Langway]

I’m just saying let’s not pretend scouting is some really rigorous process that must be better than some nerds with spreadsheets. Especially when actual data indicates the opposite. As you mentioned these are dudes who do a thankless job and probably don’t even get paid that well. But then shouldn’t we expect a half-assed job in return?

You should follow baseball where the spreadsheets have taken over to a greater extent due in part to the nature of the game. The soul of hockey is already somewhat waning. If and when the beancounters fully take over to that extent is it going to make for a more optimal fan experience do you think? Super teams? I doubt it. Four lines of finesse trying to be the NBA without much regard for team dynamics? Easy pass. Old school elements like sacrifice and team defense will still be what helps separate the men from the boys come playoff time. How to account for something like that with WAR when team-building? It's just not really part of the vocabulary with such a cookie-cutter approach so no one is going to take such a model as gospel even if by its own terms it outperforms. There are more objectives at play than simply stacking stars. Again, if it were only so easy when it comes to building teams and team dynamics. The basic underlying premise to legitimize its success is in itself flawed.

Should teams resist old school sentimentality and shoot for finesse and upside? Sure...and it is a lot less prevalent than it used to be. Gone are the days of a behemoth like Scott Parker being drafted in the first round as a 20-year old re-entry. Size remains prioritized but size that can play and there is a clear overall trend toward analytics league-wide. It hasn't taken over entirely and certainly one that only uses a one-size-fits-all model would IMO be incredibly flawed and basic Eventually analytics are bound to take over. But when it does I'd wager it's a lot more complex than simply being guided by one single metric.

 

[twabby]

You should follow baseball where the spreadsheets have taken over to a greater extent due in part to the nature of the game. The soul of hockey is already somewhat waning. If and when the beancounters fully take over to that extent is it going to make for a more optimal fan experience do you think? Super teams? I doubt it. Four lines of finesse trying to be the NBA without much regard for team dynamics? Easy pass. Old school elements like sacrifice and team defense will still be what helps separate the men from the boys come playoff time. How to account for something like that with WAR when team-building? It's just not really part of the vocabulary with such a cookie-cutter approach so no one is going to take such a model as gospel even if by its own terms it outperforms. There are more objectives at play than simply stacking stars. Again, if it were only so easy when it comes to building teams and team dynamics. The basic underlying premise to legitimize its success is in itself flawed.

Should teams resist old school sentimentality and shoot for finesse and upside? Sure...and it is a lot less prevalent than it used to be. Gone are the days of a behemoth like Scott Parker being drafted in the first round as a 20-year old re-entry. Size remains prioritized but size that can play and there is a clear overall trend toward analytics league-wide. It hasn't taken over entirely and certainly one that only uses a one-size-fits-all model would IMO be incredibly flawed and basic Eventually analytics are bound to take over. But when it does I'd wager it's a lot more complex than simply being guided by one single metric.

This is a different point entirely. If you don’t want hockey to go the way of baseball that’s fine. Just say you don’t want to see it turn into a bunch of soulless number crunching franchises with finesse sissies out on the ice. But if you’re going to attack the actual validity of these models in terms of producing wins then you’re going to have to be a little more rigorous in your methods for your argument to carry any weight.

There is certainly going to be further refinement of statistical methods, but the point isn’t to say that WAR and NHLe are perfect but rather that they are comparatively better than other options out there right now, including scouting at the amateur level which is where this discussion started. It’s also interesting that team defense is mentioned as a key component for winning in the postseason as if this isn’t captured in WAR. It’s also particularly curious that this is pointed out immediately after Vegas won the Cup, in large part because their offense finally found a way to break through after years of being unable to score in the postseason. Their team defense has always been good to great. If anything it seems like being able to score is more important. Colorado couldn’t score against Seattle, Carolina has choked out of the postseason despite years of being near the top defensively, etc.

 

[Langway]

Well, theoretical wins anyway. Whatever floats your boat.

Team defense itself as a team concept isn't captured by WAR. One can I suppose calculate the cumulative defensive value of the individuals on a team but that's not the same as measuring team defense. Tactics are all but glossed over for no good reason. Another key change for Vegas was Bruce Cassidy, who implemented a much more compact in-zone defensive structure. Even compared to previous runs this was a much more packed-in approach that helped them against Edmonton in particular. It made life a lot easier on poor Adin Hill.

Winning requires balance and subtlety. Sort of mindlessly stacking stars can win in the regular season but it shouldn't be unconditionally trusted to be all that viable in the playoffs. Team need to score. But teams that find that top eschelon gear in the playoffs also transcend the sum of their parts. Fixating just on the parts instead of the dynamics that go into team building and creating/enabling that next level environment is what's primarily missing the forest for the trees in such a basic star-centered cookie-cutter approach. Teams need stars without question. But there's a lot beyond that on any great successful team from coaching to personnel development to video scouts to role players to simply learning from past mistakes that such a zealously oversimplified reference point doesn't even begin to try to solve or really acknowledge much at all.

 

[twabby]

Well, theoretical wins anyway. Whatever floats your boat.

Team defense itself as a team concept isn't captured by WAR. One can I suppose calculate the cumulative defensive value of the individuals on a team but that's not the same as measuring team defense. Tactics are all but glossed over for no good reason. Another key change for Vegas was Bruce Cassidy, who implemented a much more compact in-zone defensive structure. Even compared to previous runs this was a much more packed-in approach that helped them against Edmonton in particular. It made life a lot easier on poor Adin Hill.

Winning requires balance and subtlety. Sort of mindlessly stacking stars can win in the regular season but it shouldn't be unconditionally trusted to be all that viable in the playoffs. Team need to score. But teams that find that top eschelon gear in the playoffs also transcend the sum of their parts. Fixating just on the parts instead of the dynamics that go into team building and creating/enabling that next level environment is what's primarily missing the forest for the trees in such a basic star-centered cookie-cutter approach. Teams need stars without question. But there's a lot beyond that on any great successful team from coaching to personnel development to video scouts to role players to simply learning from past mistakes that such a zealously oversimplified reference point doesn't even begin to try to solve or really acknowledge much at all.

I think you're making a reasonable case for a team-building strategy in general.

Where you lose me is the implicit assumption that the status quo is necessarily better at enacting this strategy simply because the alternative (pure analytics) isn't perfect.

 

[YippieKaey]

Whether it's analytics or former players doing scouting, most players win between 0-1 cups (my estimate) whilst wearing several (my estimate) cups.

So on a cup for cup ratio, it is likely that there will be more instances of NHL player offspring playing in and therefore being scouted for the NHL. If they then are being scouted by their breeders, it is fair to assume a certain bias.

However, if said offspring turns former player turned NHL scout when their career is over, they would be a second generation player turned scout.

If then, the offspring breeds and the result of said breeding becomes an NHL player who post-career goes into scouting, one can realistically estimate that at a specific point in the future all players will be in the NHL as a result of being the offspring of a former NHL player turned pro scout and thus creating a closed system with no way for energy to enter.

Thus the NHL will ultimately go the way of the universe, death through entropy.

 

[Carlzner]

networking​

noun​

net·work·ing ˈnet-ˌwər-kiŋ


1: the exchange of information or services among individuals, groups, or institutions
specifically : the cultivation of productive relationships for employment or business

 

[alphabetical]

networking​

noun​

net·work·ing ˈnet-ˌwər-kiŋ

1: the exchange of information or services among individuals, groups, or institutions
specifically : the cultivation of productive relationships for employment or business

Where do spreadsheets fit into that? there have to be spreadsheets for twabby to follow it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Where do spreadsheets fit into that? there have to be spreadsheets for twabby to follow it.

Lots of spreadsheets AFTER the networking/hiring part!

 

[HTFN]

So, here's ultimately what we're arguing about, based on what I've been able to understand from other sources/threads:

Ryan Miller, one of the best US born goaltenders of all-time and no real slouch as a pro in general (14th all-time in Wins, Olympian, Vezina winner) is going to be involved with the team's goaltending and development. That... doesn't seem inappropriate for a pro who wants to keep working in the game. He's always stuck me as a pretty tuned in, smart, articulate sort of guy so it's not like he has no insight to provide or ways to communicate with the players he'll work with, and of all player-to-coach moves I think goaltending is isolated enough to be the safest of them. Like I said, Kolzig hasn't really let us down a whole lot in his role, has he?

The other real name of note, Vanek, is only doing scouting in Minnesota, where he lives and is a big part of the hockey scene since apparently his kid plays high school hockey there. That's... about as much as that is. "Hey, since you're out there watching and doing this anyway, you want to keep your ear to the ground on some of these kids?". And unlike hiring someone to do that in, I don't know, Florida or Texas or whatever... Minnesota high school hockey is a reasonable avenue to the pro game.

Here's the other thing I found interesting: that particular group of Buffalo Sabres has a pretty insane amount of people finding hockey jobs. Guys from the 2007-ish roster who are still in the game include 3 NHL GM's in Briere, Drury, and Grier and a few other guys coaching various levels (McKee, Conklin, Hecht, Paetsch, Lydman, and one or two others in team/national front office roles).

I wasn't in the room so I don't know, but maybe that was a smart group of guys. Would explain why their game was pretty ahead of its time coming out of the lockout and the team was a powerhouse, or why they'd trust somebody they spent that much time with to understand how they think the game... is that still nepotism? Maybe, I guess, if it wasn't an open hiring process, but it's also not like there's no merit to the hires and the roles don't overlap. If you do analytics, you're in the analytics department. Nobody's sending you on the road to scout assignments.... No reason not to have both. Scouting is just gathering data that apparently analytic folks don't care about or value, so let the meatheads do it.

 

[twabby]

networking​

noun​

net·work·ing ˈnet-ˌwər-kiŋ

1: the exchange of information or services among individuals, groups, or institutions
specifically : the cultivation of productive relationships for employment or business

2. the linking of computers to allow them to operate interactively.

I agree. Teams should network!

 

[RedRocking]

Lots of spreadsheets AFTER the networking/hiring part!

Management Consulting FTW!

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

From today’s PHR mailbag.

KRB: The Capitals may have got the steal of the draft in #40 pick Andrew Cristall. And I’ll guess that he plays in the NHL sooner, rather than later. The reason why is because at the start of the 2024-25 season, he’ll be 19, too young for the AHL, but probably too good for the WHL. So he’s a Cap then. Thoughts?

I was surprised to see Cristall slip that deep in the draft as he felt like a worthwhile gamble in the 20s for a team looking to take a big swing on a player who, if all pans out, could be a quality top-six NHL winger. I liked that pick for them a lot. But he’s undersized and there are questions about how his game will translate to the pros. Some smaller players find a way to make a mark but a lot don’t.

I get your point about Washington possibly not wanting to send Cristall back for his 19-year-old season as he won’t have much left to show at the major junior level. But is he going to be able to hold down at least a third-line spot with the Capitals that season? (I wouldn’t want any junior-aged prospect toiling away on the fourth line from a development standpoint.) That I’m not so sure about. I think they will want his defensive game to get a lot better so that Cristall isn’t exploited in that regard in the NHL. Can that level of improvement happen in the WHL? It’s possible but not probable as Kelowna will be wanting him to focus on his offense, not so much the defense.

There isn’t a great solution. Washington I’m sure would love to send Cristall to the AHL in 2024-25 but the CHL agreement isn’t going away anytime soon. Between the NHL and WHL, I think they’ll play it safe and ultimately send him back down and then get him to Hershey the following year.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ive been playing hockey my entire life. Stat sheets and numbers dont mean shit. Ive seen the best players in the world on a cold streak. We had trade Ovie hes washed threads.

Stats are good for your contract (Mantha) but for real hockey doesnt mean much. I could play to score every shift, or play lock down D. You have to be good at all aspects

 

[HTFN]

Ive been playing hockey my entire life. Stat sheets and numbers dont mean shit. Ive seen the best players in the world on a cold streak. We had trade Ovie hes washed threads.

Stats are good for your contract (Mantha) but for real hockey doesnt mean much. I could play to score every shift, or play lock down D. You have to be good at all aspects

I once had a goalie chirp me "you couldn't pass that thing once in a while" after the 4th goal, and I honestly didn't have the heart to tell him "that was a pass, I just missed it really bad and you let it in your five hole."

Advanced stats would have had me a as a darling just for that type of thing. Nothing meant more to my team than two diving clears at the defensive point, though. It's not always what you do, it's what echoes through the bench. When you score with a shot the rest of them can't hit , they just think "thank god we've got him", but when you do what anybody can do and play the game to its limits in most phases you really lead a charge that can't be explained.

 

[ovikovy817]

I don't know if the Michkov topic is still on the agenda here (didn't follow for the last month(s) ).
A popular Russian YouTube podcast with Nikolishin just made an interview with Michkov.

About the draft :

1. Michkov was invited by the Flyers to USA to visit their arena and so on. First and ONLY team he spoke with in an "unofficial way" and for him it was very clear where he wanted to go. They gave him some gifts and complete equipment and told him to not show it anywhere.
Then he met with other teams during the draft's interview

2. Nikolishin (as a Caps scout) send him a message to meet and did not receive an answer. In fact he only received a "Hello" and that's all.

3. Nikolishin (as a Youtube podcaster) told this story and said that it was very unprofessional and dissrecpeftul.

4. Caps organisation wasn't happy with Nikolishin's comments on this podcast.

5. On draft day he was stressed only because he thought a team before PHI will choose him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't know if the Michkov topic is still on the agenda here (didn't follow for the last month(s) ).
A popular Russian YouTube podcast with Nikolishin just made an interview with Michkov.

About the draft :

1. Michkov was invited by the Flyers to USA to visit their arena and so on. First and ONLY team he spoke with in an "unofficial way" and for him it was very clear where he wanted to go. They gave him some gifts and complete equipment and told him to not show it anywhere.
Then he met with other teams during the draft's interview

2. Nikolishin (as a Caps scout) send him a message to meet and did not receive an answer. In fact he only received a "Hello" and that's all.

3. Nikolishin (as a Youtube podcaster) told this story and said that it was very unprofessional and dissrecpeftul.

4. Caps organisation wasn't happy with Nikolishin's comments on this podcast.

5. On draft day he was stressed only because he thought a team before PHI will choose him.

Hmmm is that allowed for a NHL team to do with a potential draftee? Here take a bunch of gifts and equipment but shhhhh….

 

[John Price]

RMNB had a comment where Mantha said he would work hard in his contract year and then try to find somewhere else.

Mantha is okay but everyone is acting like the Caps giving up Vrana was terrible and on par with the Forsberg trade. Mantha is average. People acting like Vrana is good again, no he's not. He's also average. No team won that trade.

 

[g00n]

RMNB had a comment where Mantha said he would work hard in his contract year and then try to find somewhere else.

View attachment 737654

Mantha is okay but everyone is acting like the Caps giving up Vrana was terrible and on par with the Forsberg trade. Mantha is average. People acting like Vrana is good again, no he's not. He's also average. No team won that trade.

Is...is he dumb enough to put this out there?

Seriously, this is one of the stupidest things a Caps player has said publicly in a long time.

It may be correct and the truth from his perspective but holy lack of self-awareness....unless he's just trying to force a trade.

Even so, why advertise "I'm a lazy player unless I need a new contract...you can probably expect me to coast again once I have the paper signed"?

 

[HeyMattyB]

 

[Marshall]

Mantha is okay but everyone is acting like the Caps giving up Vrana was terrible and on par with the Forsberg trade. Mantha is average. People acting like Vrana is good again, no he's not. He's also average. No team won that trade.

Accurate and concise.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Pure results means cumulative WAR in the NHL for 7 years after being drafted. Under that metric NHLe has performed better than the actual draft. Even if you don’t believe WAR is a good metric, NHLe would have done better if measuring by points and also better if measuring by TOI.

If you think Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek are likely very good hires then I’m not going to be able to convince you otherwise because you’re right I don’t have access to Grier’s hiring process. It was funny to see two former teammates hired, but I think everyone’s free to draw their own conclusions on why they were hired.

Grier has had a LOT of former teammates. That will happen in a 15 year career. He and Miller were together for 3.2 seasons, and he and Vanek for 3.

In particular, Vanek’s rookie season was Grier’s 10th. Grier then left for 3yrs to be a Shark, where he is now employed. To then rejoin Vanek and Buffalo (and Miller) for the last couple years in his career.

So, your take is that Vanek so “wow’d” Grier in those 3 seasons, while being quite a bit younger, so perhaps Grier took the young forward under his wing, and that relationship blossomed into Grier giving him a job?

Maybe Grier has hired a ton of Ex-Oilers, as he was there for a good 6 years. Goodness, that’s a lot longer than Vanek or Miller.

We should investigate this?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Is...is he dumb enough to put this out there?

Seriously, this is one of the stupidest things a Caps player has said publicly in a long time.

It may be correct and the truth from his perspective but holy lack of self-awareness....unless he's just trying to force a trade.

Even so, why advertise "I'm a lazy player unless I need a new contract...you can probably expect me to coast again once I have the paper signed"?

his teammates and the people “in the game” know who he is. His stating it on Twitter just allows fans from every team to know. Not just Caps and Wings

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

his teammates and the people “in the game” know who he is. His stating it on Twitter just allows fans from every team to know. Not just Caps and Wings

I’d hope he would be more focused on other things than updating randos in the Internet, but who cares….this issue is nothing.

We all pretty much expect him to bounce back some this season. Let’s just hope we can reclaim some assets when he does.