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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

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No chance Mantha wants to stay here.

GM who knows who he is and when he tries (contract year) = no long-term contract.

Low-scoring team with 0 great playmakers = less money for him.

Even if he has been solid 5-on-5 scorer this season, i doubt there is many teams offering contracts longer than 1-year. I think it's a very likely scenario that he gets traded for a pick now and has a chance in the Playoffs to play himself a bigger payday. If he remains 'meh' in the Playoffs, he's propably going to sign a 1-year contract to a team like Oilers/Panthers/Canes/Leafs that offer him short, cheap 1-year contract along with a chance to go play on an elite PP and great play-makers. Oilers would have been a no-brainer but Connor Brown busting there kind of puts a red flag to it. Perhaps the Panthers who love their reclamation projects?
 
TheSmokingMan said:
Now, only when his contract is up, does he finally start looking like the player we've been hoping for.
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I don't agree with this. The impacts indicate he's always been a strong player. And even if we ignore impacts and just go with the lowest common denominator and look at points, his production this year isn't that different from his other years:

1708089530149.png


I think once again this is boiling down to a style vs. substance discussion, a common theme around these parts. People don't like the way he looks out there.

As I said there are good reasons to trade him as well. I'm not sold on keeping him. I just think whoever ends up signing him next year is going to get quite the bargain and maybe it makes sense for Washington to try to sign him.
 
twabby said:
I don't agree with this. The impacts indicate he's always been a strong player. And even if we ignore impacts and just go with the lowest common denominator and look at points, his production this year isn't that different from his other years:

View attachment 820740

I think once again this is boiling down to a style vs. substance discussion, a common theme around these parts. People don't like the way he looks out there.

As I said there are good reasons to trade him as well. I'm not sold on keeping him. I just think whoever ends up signing him next year is going to get quite the bargain and maybe it makes sense for Washington to try to sign him.
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Once again leaning on stats and accusing others of eye test bias when the players themselves and coaches have called out these guys for loafing.


Didn't you learn your lesson with Kuznetsov?
 
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twabby said:
I don't agree with this. The impacts indicate he's always been a strong player. And even if we ignore impacts and just go with the lowest common denominator and look at points, his production this year isn't that different from his other years:

View attachment 820740

I think once again this is boiling down to a style vs. substance discussion, a common theme around these parts. People don't like the way he looks out there.

As I said there are good reasons to trade him as well. I'm not sold on keeping him. I just think whoever ends up signing him next year is going to get quite the bargain and maybe it makes sense for Washington to try to sign him.
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Nobody believe this…..you can’t blame this guy’s poor time in DC solely on coaching…..that same malaise followed him here from Detroit. Dude is playing for his career (career high 27g pace)…..but that desperation will disappear if he gets a biggish multi-year deal.….
 
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I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Domi as a middle 6 C. Kind of like they did with Strome. He’s produced both with Chicago and Columbus and is more of a playmaker which is needed.
 
g00n said:
Once again leaning on stats and accusing others of eye test bias when the players themselves and coaches have called out these guys for loafing.


Didn't you learn your lesson with Kuznetsov?
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I'm not saying he hasn't loafed. I'm saying his impact on goal differential has been very good.
 
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I am not an advanced stats guy but even strength points per 60 minutes is a good indicator to compare the offensive contribution of players while taking out the advantage of having PP time or just more ice time. Surprised to see that Mantha leads the Caps (min 10 games). Also second behind Pacioretty for the PP points per 60 and one of the rare positives in the +/- . A team will want him for the playoffs. Himself must pray to be moved to a contending team to have an occasion to increase his value for his next contract, even though his reputation is known so GMs should not get fooled by a sudden last-minute spurt

NameGPP+/-ESP/60PPP/60TOITOI-ESTOI-PP
Anthony Mantha482642.144.1113:4812:171:31
Dylan Strome5235-92.063.4017:3814:333:03
Alexander Ovechkin4937-171.843.8819:2314:394:44
Sonny Milano238-11.820.0012:1111:280:42
Hendrix Lapierre257-31.800.009:349:190:15
Nicolas Aube-Kubel391471.750.0012:2512:170:03
Alexei Protas5119-71.750.0013:0212:080:18
Nic Dowd431591.610.0015:4012:590:05
Beck Malenstyn511341.340.0014:1211:220:01
Tom Wilson5121-141.322.0718:2014:182:16
Evgeny Kuznetsov4317-111.282.0618:4714:102:42
Matthew Phillips275-21.200.0010:169:160:57
Connor McMichael5018-151.193.5315:1213:061:01
Max Pacioretty178-61.175.6514:3412:042:30
T.J. Oshie3515-101.053.6716:2913:073:16
 
AlexBrovechkin8 said:
Mantha has always been good, he was just a broken player under Lavi. He had zero confidence and looked like he was playing not to make mistakes.

Mantha’s biggest liability is that he is 6’5” with great hands so people think he should be dominant and the gap between their expectations and reality means he’s a wasted talent to many people. If you look at him for what he is — a very good two-way middle six winger — and not for what you think he should be then you can appreciate him more.
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I'm with this take 100%, but I still think they should trade him.
 
AlexBrovechkin8 said:
Mantha has always been good, he was just a broken player under Lavi. He had zero confidence and looked like he was playing not to make mistakes.

Mantha’s biggest liability is that he is 6’5” with great hands so people think he should be dominant and the gap between their expectations and reality means he’s a wasted talent to many people. If you look at him for what he is — a very good two-way middle six winger — and not for what you think he should be then you can appreciate him more.
Click to expand...

twabby said:
I don't agree with this. The impacts indicate he's always been a strong player. And even if we ignore impacts and just go with the lowest common denominator and look at points, his production this year isn't that different from his other years:

View attachment 820740

I think once again this is boiling down to a style vs. substance discussion, a common theme around these parts. People don't like the way he looks out there.

As I said there are good reasons to trade him as well. I'm not sold on keeping him. I just think whoever ends up signing him next year is going to get quite the bargain and maybe it makes sense for Washington to try to sign him.
Click to expand...
soooo......he sucks hahahah. Just saying he wasnt drafted for what your implying AB and the eye test about how he "looks out there" says he sucks (TW), is disappointing and generally makes me want to change the channel while he is playing. Good for him to actually put some effort in this year when it no longer matters so that he can fool someone in the offseason into overpaying him. Just my opinion but you can put him in the Schultz category of waiting for him to do something, anything meaningful. In his defense as you two are trying to shed light on a little bit, its not Manthas fault hockey experts see something in him thats just not there and keep overpaying him.
 
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Mantha has 84 points in 166 games as a Cap. Basically Troy Brouwer pts/g numbers.

His toi/g since 2020-21 is 14:37 and has declined steadily since that first season, so that his 16 goal performance in 2023-24 (with 13:48/g) is going to make his points/60 look much better for his time here than it really was.

His shooting% this season is close to 20% and unsustainable, though he's obviously a skilled shooter. The problem has always been getting him to play to his potential in years he's NOT up for a contract.

Are there any stats showing QOC for his minutes?
 
twabby said:
This is kind of what I see too. Something in that ballpark.

View attachment 820410

He's been a top line talent for several years. His counting stats are better this year because he's stayed healthy and because Carbery doesn't hate him, but he's largely the same player as he's always been. If he gets somewhere in that 2-3 year for $3 million per year contract that I think he'll get, who else could they get on the open market that would be close to this level of value?
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Not many options, at 3m per.

If he wanted 4+, then trade him now.

I do wonder if they are having any contact convo w him. At the right numbers, he’s be a good top 9F who can play up and down the roster.
 
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ClevelandCapsfan said:
www.prohockeyrumors.com

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

A closer look at the salary cap situation for the Washington Capitals for the 2023-24 season.
www.prohockeyrumors.com www.prohockeyrumors.com
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A pretty fair breakdown. One point that I'm not sure I fully understand is the ability to apply performance related bonuses to the current season instead of the next. I was under the impression that those performance related bonuses had to be paid the following year and counted towards next years cap.
 
You can definitely trade an injured player or LTIR player, we see it all the time. Not sure if they can go straight to LTIR though, you might need to fit them in for one day then move them to LTIR
 
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