Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[SherVaughn30]

No GDT for the game against the Kraken!

 

[Hivemind]

No GDT for the game against the Kraken!

This is how we all discover you have Twabby on ignore

 

[Jags]

I think the tax thing is a real concern regardless of which way you look at it. You can argue that the state gets their money either way, but if the player or their agent thinks about it for a second they'll realize the huge difference between the state taking a chunk of your pay regardless of what you do versus them getting a share of the things you choose to purchase, the place you choose to live, etc. Most folks don't mind paying taxes on things that matter to them.

And it certainly is a big deal when you're considering playing in specific places, especially the California teams. LA might still be nice for the rich, but I wouldn't willingly give up hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars to a state that inept at spending it.

It's definitely a case-by-case thing for sure if your choice boils down to apples-to-apples options, but there are a bunch of NHL locations that aren't attractive at all from that perspective.

 

[Langway]

This may be a large part of why they won't make the playoffs. Hard to feature defense in such a league, particularly when you don't have elite defenders. I think they could conceivably still get away with it if they had a deadlier PP but...alas.

 

[Brian23]

Scoring is at an all time high and they're half a goal down per game (2.76) from last year (3.29), I just don't see how there's much conceivable about them sneaking in anything. Even if they some how limp into a wild card spot, they're going to get embarrassed unless they turn it on like it's 2018 again.

 

[Misery74]

To me, the writing was on the wall once we resigned Dowd. Not that Dowd is a bad player, or reason for our trouble.

This year, Eller should have been the 4c. Once we resigned Dowd, it showed that we were not going to use youth, rather, we doubled down on veterans. We basically just wasted a year, and we are worse off because of it.

The coach isn’t the only problem, but he is the primary problem, and the easiest one to fix.

 

[twabby]

~96 points is typically about the playoff cutoff in a full 82 game season. In order to get to 96 points, the Capitals would need to play at a ~104 point pace for the rest of the season.

They have to be realistic at this point. Tom Wilson is a good player but he's not going to turn this offense into a dynamo. Dmitry Orlov is a good player but he doesn't turn this team from a 78 point team into a 104 point team.

I've said it before but they need to consider this season lost in terms of competing for a Cup. Given that I think after this road trip or soon after they need to fire Laviolette. He's not the guy long-term so why continue to keep him around? He's not doing the team any favors in the medium or long term even if you want to argue there's no one better in the short term available to hire.

They also need to start looking at trading players now for whatever they deem to be an acceptable return. There's no downside to trading guys like Sheary, Eller, Johansson, Gustafsson, TVR, Mantha, etc. If the young players who step in stink, who cares! At least you know they stink, and also they're increasing their lottery ticket odds if they stink.

They can and probably should punt on guys like Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Oshie until the offseason because their contracts likely make it difficult for an in-season trade. But they really should be looking at Orlov, Jensen, and Wilson with a very critical eye toward ~3 years from now when Washington can next be realistically competitive. Are these guys likely to be a big part of a contending Capitals team in 3 years? If not I think they have to consider getting rid of them now if the return is acceptable.

 

[kicksavedave]

~96 points is typically about the playoff cutoff in a full 82 game season. In order to get to 96 points, the Capitals would need to play at a ~104 point pace for the rest of the season.

They have to be realistic at this point. Tom Wilson is a good player but he's not going to turn this offense into a dynamo. Dmitry Orlov is a good player but he doesn't turn this team from a 78 point team into a 104 point team.

I've said it before but they need to consider this season lost in terms of competing for a Cup. Given that I think after this road trip or soon after they need to fire Laviolette. He's not the guy long-term so why continue to keep him around? He's not doing the team any favors in the medium or long term even if you want to argue there's no one better in the short term available to hire.

They also need to start looking at trading players now for whatever they deem to be an acceptable return. There's no downside to trading guys like Sheary, Eller, Johansson, Gustafsson, TVR, Mantha, etc. If the young players who step in stink, who cares! At least you know they stink, and also they're increasing their lottery ticket odds if they stink.

They can and probably should punt on guys like Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Oshie until the offseason because their contracts likely make it difficult for an in-season trade. But they really should be looking at Orlov, Jensen, and Wilson with a very critical eye toward ~3 years from now when Washington can next be realistically competitive. Are these guys likely to be a big part of a contending Capitals team in 3 years? If not I think they have to consider getting rid of them now if the return is acceptable.

You had me right up until you mention trading Wilson. GTFO with that stuff. He's too handsome to be traded! Orlov and John Carlson's old man hair can both go.

 

[crazy8888]

~96 points is typically about the playoff cutoff in a full 82 game season. In order to get to 96 points, the Capitals would need to play at a ~104 point pace for the rest of the season.

They have to be realistic at this point. Tom Wilson is a good player but he's not going to turn this offense into a dynamo. Dmitry Orlov is a good player but he doesn't turn this team from a 78 point team into a 104 point team.

I've said it before but they need to consider this season lost in terms of competing for a Cup. Given that I think after this road trip or soon after they need to fire Laviolette. He's not the guy long-term so why continue to keep him around? He's not doing the team any favors in the medium or long term even if you want to argue there's no one better in the short term available to hire.

They also need to start looking at trading players now for whatever they deem to be an acceptable return. There's no downside to trading guys like Sheary, Eller, Johansson, Gustafsson, TVR, Mantha, etc. If the young players who step in stink, who cares! At least you know they stink, and also they're increasing their lottery ticket odds if they stink.

They can and probably should punt on guys like Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Oshie until the offseason because their contracts likely make it difficult for an in-season trade. But they really should be looking at Orlov, Jensen, and Wilson with a very critical eye toward ~3 years from now when Washington can next be realistically competitive. Are these guys likely to be a big part of a contending Capitals team in 3 years? If not I think they have to consider getting rid of them now if the return is acceptable.

You really think right now is the time to go into full rebuild mode so that 3 years from now they can be competitive again? What the hell is the point of that? If thats the case why aren't you putting Ovechkin in the conversation. Is he going to be a part of contending team in 3 years? Trade him too. Hell package him with Wilson for a better return. Im sure 5 years from now the organization will see some positive results from this trade.

I get the season is frustrating. I get that this season may be already lost. But goddamn this is an overreaction.

They should be doing everything possible to be as competitive as possible the next 3-4 after that rebuild away. Why trade proven players like Wilson and Orlov when they can help the team next year, year after and so on.

 

[Langway]

I still think they have a panic trade in them. Mantha+McMichael for someone shiny that they'll similarly squander. It's what they do rather than solve problems.

They're not going to sell off early and get ahead of the market. They're going to hang on for dear life until the bitter end and if it takes rash moves to essentially just spin their wheels they'll do it. They don't have the vision for anything more ambitious. Similarly, I doubt they can Lavi until it's an unavoidable issue. And even then it could just be Nelson coming up from Hershey essentially running with the same basic checking design.

 

[Brian23]

You really think right now is the time to go into full rebuild mode so that 3 years from now they can be competitive again? What the hell is the point of that? If thats the case why aren't you putting Ovechkin in the conversation. Is he going to be a part of contending team in 3 years? Trade him too. Hell package him with Wilson for a better return. Im sure 5 years from now the organization will see some positive results from this trade.

I get the season is frustrating. I get that this season may be already lost. But goddamn this is an overreaction.

They should be doing everything possible to be as competitive as possible the next 3-4 after that rebuild away. Why trade proven players like Wilson and Orlov when they can help the team next year, year after and so on.

With what...?

I'm of the opinon this team has more talent then they're showing on ice, they're just being held back by dreadful coaching, but if you really think that there aren't really any line drivers, that Backstrom isn't coming back as Backstrom, and basically you're only real "Batman" is going to be Ovi then what do you think this team can do to really retool?

They don't have trade chips, they don't have premier prospects (at least, none that don't need at least another 2ish years to make the jump), and the free agency pool is almost always Robin/B level players getting paid A level contracts.

And also, as I've said before, I just cannot understand anyone on the sell out everything just for Ovi train. I wouldn't trade him unless he asked, but I'm also not risking a potential better future (or better teams) because they might not facilitate him specifically.

I still think they have a panic trade in them. Mantha+McMichael for someone shiny that they'll similarly squander. It's what they do rather than solve problems.

This still absolutely terrifies me. Maybe a big swing on a Horvat or Karlsson, both of which won't be worth the trade. Horvat I could maybe get behind if it was almost essentially a 1 for 1, but adding much more of Mantha or McMichael for him would be such an awful move.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Trade them all for magic beans and hope? Nope…….hard pass from me until much later in the season.

 

[crazy8888]

With what...?

I'm of the opinon this team has more talent then they're showing on ice, they're just being held back by dreadful coaching, but if you really think that there aren't really any line drivers, that Backstrom isn't coming back as Backstrom, and basically you're only real "Batman" is going to be Ovi then what do you think this team can do to really retool?

They don't have trade chips, they don't have premier prospects (at least, none that don't need at least another 2ish years to make the jump), and the free agency pool is almost always Robin/B level players getting paid A level contracts.

And also, as I've said before, I just cannot understand anyone on the sell out everything just for Ovi train. I wouldn't trade him unless he asked, but I'm also not risking a potential better future (or better teams) because they might not facilitate him specifically.


This still absolutely terrifies me. Maybe a big swing on a Horvat or Karlsson, both of which won't be worth the trade. Horvat I could maybe get behind if it was almost essentially a 1 for 1, but adding much more of Mantha or McMichael for him would be such an awful move.

None of what i said has anything to do with facilitating Ovi with anything other than a chance to compete for another cup. I am not on the go for the record screw the cup train. I just feel that the best player that this franchise has had or ever will have deserves better than wasting his golden years on a rebuilding team.

I mean why are you guys so quick to give up and throw the white flag? Maybe this year is a wash but there are still a couple of years left. Starting next year they can get rid of a few old vets and get some fresh blood in the line up. Try coaching changes. It will be more clear what Backstrom situations is looking like. Maybe less injuries. Maybe better goaltending. Who knows. Maybe young guys step up more, clearly a few are having sophomore slumps. Even this year this crippled old team is still somewhat competing and is still a winning streak away from getting close to the playoff position.

All im saying is the talk should be more about moving useless plugs like Mantha and over the hill vets like Eller. Why are we talking top notch players like Wilson and Orlov? You want to trade them, go ahead. Shouldn't be hard considering most teams are always looking for exactly these type of players. if we are dumb enough to sell there will be plenty of takers.

 

[Brian23]

The talk centered around Orlov is specifically because he's a FA, along with Jensen. Both are probably due for a pay raise but both have the option of just not signing her next year and we end up with nothing. So they're in discussions because getting a couple somethings for them is better then potentially nothing. Jensen specifically is one that's probably worth more in a trade then he'll be in a re-signing.

Wilson, however, has entered into the discussion because he is without a doubt the most valuable trade piece that isn't Russian. The quickest turn around would be unloading him for an ascending NHLer now, A plus prospect, and a first type of haul. That could quickly turn around into more value within 2 years then Wilson could alone.

So really, when you're talking about moving top notch players it's really only Wilson because there's no guarantee any of the rest are here next year.

 

[Raikkonen]

I don't see Orlov wanting to move, why would he?

Jensen could be expensive for some here but who do you see as his replacement, how is he available and what's his projected salary?

I'm OK with extending Jensen for the right price.

although Jensen has a chance to chase cup on a good UFA contract

 

[twabby]

I was originally one of the proponents of going all-in every year until Ovechkin retires. I thought going all-in every year would yield the highest probability of getting him another Cup. But the results this season made me rethink that calculus. They haven’t been close the past 3 or 4 years and under the current path they’re only getting further away.

Instead of maybe having a puncher’s chance for the next year or two at best, I think the best course of action is to undergo a mini-rebuild right now with the hopes of being a legitimate contender in 3-4 years at the tail end of Ovechkin’s career. Any player who doesn’t fit into that window should be considered a trade asset IMO.

In 3 years does 35 year old pending UFA John Carlson fit into that window? Almost certainly not. So trade him while he still has some decent value.

Does Kuznetsov fit? It’s looking more and more like he’s a 2C who had one magical run and a few spurts of dynamic regular season play in between mediocre results. So trade him.

I love what Orlov and Jensen bring now but are these guys really going to be impact defensemen in 3 years when they are 34 and 35 years old respectively? If not trade them. They should be able to get first round pick values out one and maybe both. Plenty of playoff teams need top 4 defensemen. Florida, Toronto, and Edmonton come to mind immediately, but I’m sure others will be interested.

And yes, Tom Wilson needs to be on the block after he returns from injury. He’s a UFA after next year and I suspect he’s going to command a 7 year deal on the open market for a lot of money. I’m not sure that the Capitals should have any part of what is likely to be a massive deal for a to-be 30 year old physical winger that will take him into his late 30s, especially given he could likely return a king’s ransom in a trade that could really help inject talent to fit a contention window in 3-4 years. Wilson is good but so were players like Wayne Simmonds and Milan Lucic. It’s probably better to cash out now rather than sign a regrettable contract.

It’d require organizational buy-in and they’d likely need to convince Ovechkin as well, but I think with the right moves and a good amount of resolve they could get back into being a legit contender in 3-4 years. But as is they have basically no shot at winning it all.

 

[RedRocking]

So, I heard Alan May and Walton this morning saying don’t sleep on Backstrom coming back, and looking much better than last year. Apparently that’s what they’re “hearing from everyone.” Not sure how much stock put into that since they’re kinda shills for the organization.

But what if 19 comes back, and can play a couple more years, which buys the kids a bit more time to develop and hopefully start stepping into center roles. Under that scenario, I say: we extend Strome and Trade Kuzy.

Kuzy on the opposite side of 30 worries me, as his elite skating ability will start to diminish, and he’s lacking (at times) in vision/IQ/shooting that would help compensate.

I’m gonna play pop psychologist and irresponsibly speculate that Kuzy may be miserable in DC. They keep asking him about 895, and he always has some version of this half-joking response “I wish he’d get it over with, so he can finally retire and we can move on.”

Now, we all know Kuzy likes to joke around and maybe doesn’t have a lot of English to work with - but there’s always a bit of truth in jokes. Plus, the next question asked of him is always - “why don’t you shoot more? Shouldn’t you being scoring more?”

Kuzy, being who he is, doesn’t seem to do well with great expectations (though he has ice in his veins in big moments). And he probably feels this pressure of trying to help Ovi to 895, but is also constantly being told to shoot more. It might be driving him nuts.

So it’s interesting that Lavi finally split them up for a while here. Do you think dealing Kuzy is a nonstarter for Ovi? How close are they really?

Anyways, I realize that’s all wildly irresponsible speculation. But if we’re looking for trade value, he is near the top. Maybe he’d be happier out West with more open ice and less arguing that he’s being hooked/slashed.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Would Ted want to give up his ticket sales money and tank again? Is old Ovie on a bad team enough to keep the fans buying tickets every game?
Either way if by the deadline we are out of the playoff picture trade every UFA maybe keep Orlov. I think we could be a playoff team next season with the right moves

 

[kicksavedave]

The really sad thing is, we had a decent roster to contend for a few years after the Cup, but had some pretty dreary goalie play most of those years and a couple random injuries (Kempny/Oshie) derailed us as well. Then the year he really goes all in to fix the goalie play, the rest of the roster falls apart on him. Oh well, winning a Cup in 2018 will still carry me through whatever the future holds.

Blow it up, chase 895, set a record for oldest average roster, whatever man.

 

[g00n]

Too many tl'dr posts.

Are there any credible rumors of the Caps trading anyone? At all?

 

[zappa4ever]

We're 4 pts from the WC spots with 57 games left
- haven't gotten a single break all season, and have blown several points
- the most injuries I ever remember this team going through

Orlov should be back soon
Malenstyn should be back in 2-4 weeks
Wilson should be back by end of Dec.?
Backstrom -- ?? no clue

I fully expect not a single move will be made until Willy's back in for 10+ games then we'll see what the real outlook of the season will be

Still ridiculously premature to count this team out (despite the fever-pitch crying here)

 

[YippieKaey]

I think the tax thing is a real concern regardless of which way you look at it. You can argue that the state gets their money either way, but if the player or their agent thinks about it for a second they'll realize the huge difference between the state taking a chunk of your pay regardless of what you do versus them getting a share of the things you choose to purchase, the place you choose to live, etc. Most folks don't mind paying taxes on things that matter to them.

And it certainly is a big deal when you're considering playing in specific places, especially the California teams. LA might still be nice for the rich, but I wouldn't willingly give up hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars to a state that inept at spending it.

It's definitely a case-by-case thing for sure if your choice boils down to apples-to-apples options, but there are a bunch of NHL locations that aren't attractive at all from that perspective.

Keep in mind though that this is a very american way of looking at taxes. So there's definitely an ideological thing at play in this analysis.

 

[crazy8888]

We're 4 pts from the WC spots with 57 games left
- haven't gotten a single break all season, and have blown several points
- the most injuries I ever remember this team going through

Orlov should be back soon
Malenstyn should be back in 2-4 weeks
Wilson should be back by end of Dec.?
Backstrom -- ?? no clue

I fully expect not a single move will be made until Willy's back in for 10+ games then we'll see what the real outlook of the season will be

Still ridiculously premature to count this team out (despite the fever-pitch crying here)

Nah bro. Trade away all the best players. In 3-4 years 40 year old Ovi will have a chance to make the playoffs. All good.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Keep in mind though that this is a very american way of looking at taxes. So there's definitely an ideological thing at play in this analysis.

I’ll bite…..what’s the “non-American“ way of looking at taxes?

I don’t think most athletes are looking at it at the level that Jags is suggesting….that of “I’m not moving to a state because they are idiots“…..money talks, does the franchise have its act together, good roster, is there a good plan they can sell you on, stability, etc….

 

[YippieKaey]

I’ll bite…..what’s the “non-American“ way of looking at taxes?

I don’t think most athletes are looking at it at the level that Jags is suggesting….that of “I’m not moving to a state because they are idiots“…..money talks, does the franchise have its act together, good roster, is there a good plan they can sell you on, stability, etc….

i mean obviously there's all sorts of people all over. But i would argue that in Europe at least people in general have a much more benevolent attitude towards taxation due to cultures etc. This doesn't mean that money doesn't talk, of course it does. But i doubt that professional athletes reason along the lines of: "Well this state is really bad at allocating it's funds so that in combination with high taxation rates makes me not want to go there". Many might for sure go to like Florida for the no state tax thing but most analyses probably end there.