Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[895]

This is one of those "if it were that easy, why doesn't everyone do it?" type things but I would certainly entertain a handshake deal with Orlov to sign him in the offseason after trading him now. Give him the extra years he wants in return, because most likely we will be tanking in those years anyway.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

What mainly still makes me skeptical that they'll sell is that I have a hard time envisioning them making the playoffs next year without Orlov & Jensen. Granted, they could still miss with them as well. The forwards on the books are that overpaid and low impact. But if you subtract not just Orlov & Jensen but quite a few of the other less heralded complementary pieces the task doesn't get any easier. I don't doubt it gets a lot worse before it gets better...mostly because they're past the stage of convenient tweaks.

Big picture they're going to have to start shifting gears and I don't doubt they'll continue to largely resist it. So much of their failure is lack of imagination, foresight and planning. If you have trouble scoring, take pride in your defense. Lavi and everyone else seems to be phoning it in. For that they really should blow it the hell up and not look back. They're so far from being a relevant team. Yet Ted doesn't seem like the type that will allow for them to restructure properly and patiently. I'd wager it's bound to be a lot of half-measures that ultimately still miss the mark toward immediate competitiveness either way.

 

[Langway]

Down to a 17.4% chance of making it according to MoneyPuck. Better odds than just five teams in the East.

 

[trick9]

Down to a 17.4% chance of making it according to MoneyPuck. Better odds than just five teams in the East.

Sens play Blues later today... we'll see how that affects the odds.

 

[twabby]

What mainly still makes me skeptical that they'll sell is that I have a hard time envisioning them making the playoffs next year without Orlov & Jensen. Granted, they could still miss with them as well. The forwards on the books are that overpaid and low impact. But if you subtract not just Orlov & Jensen but quite a few of the other less heralded complementary pieces the task doesn't get any easier. I don't doubt it gets a lot worse before it gets better...mostly because they're past the stage of convenient tweaks.

Big picture they're going to have to start shifting gears and I don't doubt they'll continue to largely resist it. So much of their failure is lack of imagination, foresight and planning. If you have trouble scoring, take pride in your defense. Lavi and everyone else seems to be phoning it in. For that they really should blow it the hell up and not look back. They're so far from being a relevant team. Yet Ted doesn't seem like the type that will allow for them to restructure properly and patiently. I'd wager it's bound to be a lot of half-measures that ultimately still miss the mark toward immediate competitiveness either way.

Ovechkin's presence does complicate completely blowing it up. I give fans a lot of credit for being patient as long as there is a plan in place, but is it possible to blow it up and still give Ovechkin another shot or two at the Cup? Will Ovechkin want to stick around as part of rebuild? I don't think fans will be happy if Ovechkin isn't happy in DC. I know I won’t be.

I think they need to trade off now. They need to start tanking. They're 13th from the bottom and if they get into the bottom 11 they will have a Bedard lottery ticket. They're ahead of Florida and NYI right now and you have to figure both will be trying to win down the stretch. Ottawa might be playing for pride too. If WSH gets into the bottom 11 they have at least a 6.3% chance at a top 2 pick, and 3% at Bedard. That's not great, but it's also not 0% like their current position. In this respect maybe it is wise to keep Laviolette and prevent any sort of dead-cat bounce.

I find it difficult for them to complete a retool in one offseason but I think they can return to being competitive by 2024-25. If they are willing to take a step back next season then they won't need to feel compelled to overpay to shed the contracts of Mantha and Oshie for example. They won't have to feel rushed to fill roster spots with trades or UFAs because who knows, maybe Protas can fill that 3C spot and maybe McMichael takes a step forward. Maybe Iorio can make the jump and eliminate the need to get an expensive 2RD in free agency. And then from there they can be aggressive in the trade market and in free agency. Certainly if opportunities present themselves this offseason then by all means. But they shouldn’t get desperate this offseason IMO.

 

[Misery74]

Laviolette should be cleaning out his office. The rebuild should start today.

 

[twabby]

Ovechkin's presence does complicate completely blowing it up. I give fans a lot of credit for being patient as long as there is a plan in place, but is it possible to blow it up and still give Ovechkin another shot or two at the Cup? Will Ovechkin want to stick around as part of rebuild? I don't think fans will be happy if Ovechkin isn't happy in DC. I know I won’t be.

I think they need to trade off now. They need to start tanking. They're 13th from the bottom and if they get into the bottom 11 they will have a Bedard lottery ticket. They're ahead of Florida and NYI right now and you have to figure both will be trying to win down the stretch. Ottawa might be playing for pride too. If WSH gets into the bottom 11 they have at least a 6.3% chance at a top 2 pick, and 3% at Bedard. That's not great, but it's also not 0% like their current position. In this respect maybe it is wise to keep Laviolette and prevent any sort of dead-cat bounce.

I find it difficult for them to complete a retool in one offseason but I think they can return to being competitive by 2024-25. If they are willing to take a step back next season then they won't need to feel compelled to overpay to shed the contracts of Mantha and Oshie for example. They won't have to feel rushed to fill roster spots with trades or UFAs because who knows, maybe Protas can fill that 3C spot and maybe McMichael takes a step forward. Maybe Iorio can make the jump and eliminate the need to get an expensive 2RD in free agency. And then from there they can be aggressive in the trade market and in free agency. Certainly if opportunities present themselves this offseason then by all means. But they shouldn’t get desperate this offseason IMO.

Just to add to this: this is why I think they need to be particularly careful with the Orlov and Jensen contracts if that is their inclination. They need to make sure years 2 and 3 of those contracts will provide significant value (after a retool is complete or close to it), otherwise I think they have to consider cashing in on their trade value now.

 

[Misery74]

In order of value?

Orlov
Hathaway
Jensen
Eller
Gus
MaJo
Sheary

Move them all. I’d like to keep TvR, but everything that is not nailed down should go. We could really get a great jump on a rebuild/retool.

We can deal with what we have under contract over the Summer.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Googled "At what age do NHL players start to decline?" and got the following:

Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35."

I'll submit that it's probably comparable to a bell curve, with the top or peak at around 25. There's always outliers in these analysis, case in point Ovechkin.

Noting this, how many actually see any of the pending UFAs getting better in the coming seasons?

If your answers like mine, so why keep them.

 

[Random schmoe]

With rumors surrounding Tyler Motte right now, who in a normal year would seem to be the type of guy they'd acquire, I'm absolutely terrified that they're still going to try to add, blaming their poor performance SOLELY (publicly) on injuries and OV being on leave. Thinking to themselves that Tyler Friggin Motte is the guy who will help them stay in the race long enough to get their full team back on the ice.

(Yeah I'm a bit bitter it came to this, this season. Between the roster construction and Laviolette, even the average poster here saw this coming.)

Edit: Oh thank god.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Googled "At what age do NHL players start to decline?" and got the following:

Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35."

I'll submit that it's probably comparable to a bell curve, with the top or peak at around 25. There's always outliers in these analysis, case in point Ovechkin.

Noting this, how many actually see any of the pending UFAs getting better in the coming seasons?

If your answers like mine, so why keep them.

We should ask ChatGPT lol…

 

[pman25]

They should get ahead of the market on Chychrun and offer up Orlov at 50%. Kings would be a good match, we could take a right D contract back to replace TVR/Jensen (Matt Roy?) and they have a lot of prospects too. They need LHD and need to move out Roy/Walker to make room for Clarke and Spence

 

[Empty Goal Net]

The Caps could take a path in which they:
1) ice a relatively youth-heavy team next season with one solid Top 5 group - Ovie and two stellar complementary forwards and a balanced defensive pair. Then dress whoever remains post sell-off. Don't expect to make the playoffs in 2023-24 but maximize Ovie's chances to make progress toward 895.
2) utilize assets acquired before the beginning of the 23-24 season and youth experience built up over the next 18 months to put together a roster that is highly competitive in 2024-25. They do their best to help Ovie maintain his goal-scoring pace while improving the remainder of the team, and at the least reach the playoffs. and
3) reach a level in which they can compete for the Cup in 2025-26, the last year of Ovie's current contract and the season in which he's most likely to crack Gretzky's record.
It seems that the current goaltending is more often than not where it needs to be. If JC comes back at a highly effective level, you need a complementary dman for next season. The tough reach would be at forward, since the guys who can best support Ovie may not be on the roster at present. I'm not sure Strome is right for the C position. Maybe those players are not currently on the roster. So to keep Ovie going at a decent pace they would have to spend some of picks and cap space they are soon to acquire.
The idea of having mgmt's primary focus be assembling a roster that's intended to help Ovie for a season or two should be on the table. You don't help Ovie when NAK is one of his linemates. Nicky can rarely do it these days. Kuzy has checked out. Oshie has the warrior mentality but his execution is clearly lacking.
Sometimes you have to accept a short-term sag to improve your chances of longer-term success. I'd buy in to the idea of an Ovie-centric approach for 2023-24, as long as the team also positioned itself for a better overall performance the next season.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Ovechkin's presence does complicate completely blowing it up. I give fans a lot of credit for being patient as long as there is a plan in place, but is it possible to blow it up and still give Ovechkin another shot or two at the Cup? Will Ovechkin want to stick around as part of rebuild? I don't think fans will be happy if Ovechkin isn't happy in DC. I know I won’t be.

I think they need to trade off now. They need to start tanking. They're 13th from the bottom and if they get into the bottom 11 they will have a Bedard lottery ticket. They're ahead of Florida and NYI right now and you have to figure both will be trying to win down the stretch. Ottawa might be playing for pride too. If WSH gets into the bottom 11 they have at least a 6.3% chance at a top 2 pick, and 3% at Bedard. That's not great, but it's also not 0% like their current position. In this respect maybe it is wise to keep Laviolette and prevent any sort of dead-cat bounce.

I find it difficult for them to complete a retool in one offseason but I think they can return to being competitive by 2024-25. If they are willing to take a step back next season then they won't need to feel compelled to overpay to shed the contracts of Mantha and Oshie for example. They won't have to feel rushed to fill roster spots with trades or UFAs because who knows, maybe Protas can fill that 3C spot and maybe McMichael takes a step forward. Maybe Iorio can make the jump and eliminate the need to get an expensive 2RD in free agency. And then from there they can be aggressive in the trade market and in free agency. Certainly if opportunities present themselves this offseason then by all means. But they shouldn’t get desperate this offseason IMO.

‘maybe it’s wise to keep Laviolette to prevent a dead cat bounce”. ROFL

 

[Random schmoe]

A man can dream.

 

[YippieKaey]

Googled "At what age do NHL players start to decline?" and got the following:

Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35."

I'll submit that it's probably comparable to a bell curve, with the top or peak at around 25. There's always outliers in these analysis, case in point Ovechkin.

Shhhhh. I've heard that's not true for the Caps.

 

[g00n]

 

[Brian23]

Just like....why? I just don't understand this.

 

[trick9]

GMBM is assembling his tank squad?

McIlrath up is a great start.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

The tank begins!

GMBM is assembling his tank squad?

McIlrath up is a great start.

He is putting his team together:

To the moon!

 

[usiel]

My 30+ years of Caps hockey watching has no idea wth is going on with this.

 

[RedRocking]

Is there a way to put like a skin or something over the board, so it’s just all on fire? Maybe some “for sale” signs burning as well?

Also, looking at Orlov last night, it looked like he was resigned to not being re-signed.

*The above sentence was only meant to illustrate the correct usage of “re-sign” - minor quibble I have with HF. Why is everyone always asking if a player is going to just quit (resign)?

 

[bacchist]

Sounds like the organization is fully on board with the tank now.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Ovechkin's presence does complicate completely blowing it up. I give fans a lot of credit for being patient as long as there is a plan in place, but is it possible to blow it up and still give Ovechkin another shot or two at the Cup? Will Ovechkin want to stick around as part of rebuild? I don't think fans will be happy if Ovechkin isn't happy in DC. I know I won’t be.

I think they need to trade off now. They need to start tanking. They're 13th from the bottom and if they get into the bottom 11 they will have a Bedard lottery ticket. They're ahead of Florida and NYI right now and you have to figure both will be trying to win down the stretch. Ottawa might be playing for pride too. If WSH gets into the bottom 11 they have at least a 6.3% chance at a top 2 pick, and 3% at Bedard. That's not great, but it's also not 0% like their current position. In this respect maybe it is wise to keep Laviolette and prevent any sort of dead-cat bounce.

I find it difficult for them to complete a retool in one offseason but I think they can return to being competitive by 2024-25. If they are willing to take a step back next season then they won't need to feel compelled to overpay to shed the contracts of Mantha and Oshie for example. They won't have to feel rushed to fill roster spots with trades or UFAs because who knows, maybe Protas can fill that 3C spot and maybe McMichael takes a step forward. Maybe Iorio can make the jump and eliminate the need to get an expensive 2RD in free agency. And then from there they can be aggressive in the trade market and in free agency. Certainly if opportunities present themselves this offseason then by all means. But they shouldn’t get desperate this offseason IMO.

I appreciate your use of dead cat bounce. One of my favorite phrases.

Pretty sure this is the exact speech from The Hangover. “You guys might not know this, but I consider myself a bit of a loner. I tend to think of myself as a one-man wolf pack. But when @twabby also got on the Trade for Timo Train home and used dead cat bounce in a sentence, I knew he was one of my own. And my wolf pack, it grew by one. So, there were two of us in the wolf pack. I was alone first in the pack, and then twabby joined in later.”

 

[g00n]

My 30+ years of Caps hockey watching has no idea wth is going on with this.

I don't know...maybe a D-man is on the way out.