Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

View attachment 635794


Right now, Wilson and Backy cannot be considered as part of the Caps top 6 until they can get into game shape and prove they have overcome their respective serious injuries.

LOL if you don't want to listen that's your choice. I'll keep posting my thoughts and others will post theirs. We'll see who's right. So far the "blow it up and fire everyone this is a lottery team" crowd aren't doing so well.

Regarding NB and TW they've been looking better each game and we know what they can do. They should be given plenty of opportunity to ramp up as they'll be expected to contribute heavily down the stretch.

IMO that's only part of the puzzle. Lavi figuring out how others work together while those guys are in the lineup is the key to flipping the next switch.

I'd like to see

Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-Dowd-Hathaway

Scratch: Eller, NAK

I understand why Lavi didn't do this last game. I don't necessarily 100% agree with it. But I understand.

Also consider

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Wilson
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Milano-Strome-Sheary
Johansson-Dowd-Hathaway

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

LOL if you don't want to listen that's your choice. I'll keep posting my thoughts and others will post theirs. We'll see who's right. So far the "blow it up and fire everyone this is a lottery team" crowd aren't doing so well.

Regarding NB and TW they've been looking better each game and we know what they can do. They should be given plenty of opportunity to ramp up as they'll be expected to contribute heavily down the stretch.

IMO that's only part of the puzzle. Lavi figuring out how others work together while those guys are in the lineup is the key to flipping the next switch.

I'd like to see

Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-Dowd-Hathaway

Scratch: Eller, NAK

I understand why Lavi didn't do this last game. I don't necessarily 100% agree with it. But I understand.

Also consider

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Wilson
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Milano-Strome-Sheary
Johansson-Dowd-Hathaway

No to Ovechkin with Backstrom. Both just too slow these days not to be a liability on defense.

 

[tycoonheart]

Gut feeling - I don't think Lavi is going to scratch Eller at all. He loves these defensive guys than can PK. It will be one of Milano or Sheary.

 

[g00n]

No to Ovechkin with Backstrom. Both just too slow these days not to be a liability on defense.

Is he? He was up and down the ice pretty convincingly when I was watching him recently. He says the new hip is great.

 

[twabby]

Wow. So he's in the 10th percentile in both offense and defense in the entire league?

According to a blend of the GAR and xGAR metrics yes.

Defensively it’s not too surprising. But despite his decent production this year the models don’t really attribute much of the team’s offensive success to Kuznetsov when he’s on the ice. I suspect a big reason is because the models give so much credit to Ovechkin because Ovechkin doesn’t miss a beat when away from Kuznetsov, but when Kuznetsov is away from Ovechkin his metrics are awful.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

So you would've healthy scratched Kuzy and kept Strome in there, along with Eller?

This seems like a different angle than most of what we've been talking about here.

Again, Kuzy and Strome have nearly identical PP stats this season.

Another thing people aren't considering is Lavi looking specifically at the matchup vs PHI. In the first game we lost the faceoff battle, badly. We lost the PP battle, badly. He was clearly very concerned about that, which is why he kept Eller in over Strome. You may not be arguing that issue but everyone else is.

If the team is making a one game decision I would. Kuzy is playing like Nylander and Strome is working out well.

View attachment 635794


Right now, Wilson and Backy cannot be considered as part of the Caps top 6 until they can get into game shape and prove they have overcome their respective serious injuries.

I have zero problem with reduced roles on lower lines until they get acclimated. Mantha in for Strome is a no go imho though, however it was one game.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Send Nick and Wilson to Hershey for conditioning assignments. Problem solved.

 

[Jags]

I'd like to see

Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Johansson-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-Dowd-Hathaway

Also consider

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Wilson
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Oshie
Milano-Strome-Sheary
Johansson-Dowd-Hathaway

These are your lines. Zoom out on all the arguments and these are pretty much exactly what damn near everyone here has been asking for since the shuffling began. Best centers at center, best wings at wing, no one out of position, Eller and NAK on the bench. You're simultaneously arguing with like half a dozen people right now and it turns out that you agree with most of them on the thing that has them fired up in the first place...

 

[g00n]

These are your lines. Zoom out on all the arguments and these are pretty much exactly what damn near everyone here has been asking for since the shuffling began. Best centers at center, best wings at wing, no one out of position, Eller and NAK on the bench. You're simultaneously arguing with like half a dozen people right now and it turns out that you agree with most of them on the thing that has them fired up in the first place...

And I advocated trading Eller in the offseason.

Are you my biographer? You should know this already.

The lines I want to see have nothing to do with the discussion about why Lavi did what he did. There's a big difference between "these are the lines I want" and "Lavi has no idea what he's doing and there's no reason for scratching Strome while Eller plays". I said there were hockey reasons, and I laid them out, even if I didn't agree with them. Said it more than once.

I'm also talking about the "bear down" period we're sure to hit soon, not experimentation. I had no problem with Lavi doing some experimenting, and I gave the limitations for that.

Why did you remove the context of what I said, just so you could try and score some weaksauce internet points?

You failed, breh.

 

[Jags]

Why did you remove the context of what I said, just so you could try and score some weaksauce internet points?

You've been doing this exact thing all day. How many times have you asked people if they think swapping Eller and Strome would have won that game, or that everyone is whining over one roster move?

You know you're massively mischaracterizing their arguments, but you do it anyway, and then jump on other people for doing similar things. The hypocrisy is almost as staggering as the unearned condescension.

It's not the one roster move where Mantha sat, then Strome. It's also that every line was shuffled in the process. There were a LOT of changes for 3 straight games. Reacting to drastic changes like that isn't abnormal or cause for derision, especially when those changes cost you games and drop your GPG average to 1.6 from 4.4 over the previous 10.

There's things to be concerned about there. The usual reactionaries overstating it with "Fire Lavi" and the like isn't rational, but the thing they're overreacting to is a real issue worthy of discussion. Why you can't let them do that without throwing elbows is mindboggling.

 

[g00n]

You've been doing this exact thing all day. How many times have you asked people if they think swapping Eller and Strome would have won that game, or that everyone is whining over one roster move?

You know you're massively mischaracterizing their arguments, but you do it anyway, and then jump on other people for doing similar things. The hypocrisy is almost as staggering as the unearned condescension.

It's not the one roster move where Mantha sat, then Strome. It's also that every line was shuffled in the process. There were a LOT of changes for 3 straight games. Reacting to drastic changes like that isn't abnormal or cause for derision, especially when those changes cost you games and drop your GPG average to 1.6 from 4.4 over the previous 10.

There's things to be concerned about there. The usual reactionaries overstating it with "Fire Lavi" and the like isn't rational, but the thing they're overreacting to is a real issue worthy of discussion. Why you can't let them do that without throwing elbows is mindboggling.

Asking people to explain their fickle criticisms of the coach in reasonable terms isn't removing any context, it's adding clarity and detail to the criticism, if it even exists. If it doesn't then what is it other than mindless bitching?

I never said my lines had anything to do with the Philly game. OTOH people claiming Lavi lost that game with his decisions should be able to back that up with some alternatives.

And it absolutely is cause for derision when people howl and scream over A FEW GAMES of roster shuffling against bottom dwelling teams, especially since we all KNEW it was coming as a result of several core guys needing TOI.

The whinging is even more ridiculous when the reasons behind the moves are spelled out by the coaches and players, or are easily uncovered with 5 minutes of honest effort. Yet people still pretend it's all some huge and fatal brainfart by the coach (which they all clearly hate or at least completely distrust).

A 13 game hot streak wasn't enough for the "fire Lavi" people. How many is enough to buy the coach a few games leeway to work his stars back into the roster?

Bottom line on your tone policing is nobody asked you to ref this, m8. Take it however you want.

 

[g00n]

"HOW COULD LAVI DO THIS? THERE'S NO REASON FOR IT!"

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but here are a couple of possible reasons. Here are the supporting stats."

"YOU HAVE NO EVIDENCE! WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE??!"

"Well, here's the evidence."

"HOW DARE YOU!"

 

[Jags]

And it absolutely is cause for derision when people howl and scream over A FEW GAMES of roster shuffling against bottom dwelling teams

This is where you get lost up your own ass...

First it's "howl and scream." How does that work on a message board, exactly? Is someone typing in all caps? Putting everything in bold? Using or overusing any of the tools we're given to express emphasis? No. No one is howling or screaming about anything. You take it that way because a lot of people disagreeing with you makes your butt hurt.

Second it's "A FEW GAMES of roster shuffling." Let's start with your use of the world "shuffling," an act that's literally taking something ordered and radomizing it indiscriminately. If that's what you think he's doing, then you just torpedoed your whole argument. But let's chalk that up to you just using the word I used by mistake.

Then there's the "A FEW GAMES" part, which can come off as howling and/or screaming, so be careful.

And the issue they were upset about was not integrating 19 and 43 back into the lineup. That's the part we all knew was coming. Their issue -- and you know this already -- was that the lengths he went to seemed like a pretty drastic overreach. Didn't have to upset the apple cart quite that much, was their point. Could have preserved some stuff that was working.

And save the "gaslighting" remarks. I'm simplifying the position for clarity, and I'm only doing that because you're misstating their position. That you're doing it on purpose to make others believe they're saying something else is a form of gaslighting in itself, but semantics and hypocrisy are already not your friends.

 

[g00n]

This is where you get lost up your own ass...

First it's "howl and scream." How does that work on a message board, exactly? Is someone typing in all caps? Putting everything in bold? Using or overusing any of the tools we're given to express emphasis? No. No one is howling or screaming about anything. You take it that way because a lot of people disagreeing with you makes your butt hurt.

Second it's "A FEW GAMES of roster shuffling." Let's start with your use of the world "shuffling," an act that's literally taking something ordered and radomizing it indiscriminately. If that's what you think he's doing, then you just torpedoed your whole argument. But let's chalk that up to you just using the word I used by mistake.

Then there's the "A FEW GAMES" part, which can come off as howling and/or screaming, so be careful.

And the issue they were upset about was not integrating 19 and 43 back into the lineup. That's the part we all knew was coming. Their issue -- and you know this already -- was that the lengths he went to seemed like a pretty drastic overreach. Didn't have to upset the apple cart quite that much, was their point. Could have preserved some stuff that was working.

And save the "gaslighting" remarks. I'm simplifying the position for clarity, and I'm only doing that because you're misstating their position. That you're doing it on purpose to make others believe they're saying something else is a form of gaslighting in itself, but semantics and hypocrisy are already not your friends.

I'm done with your sea lioning and attempts to gaslight or make semantic arguments.

I'm not misstating anything. You tried this same act wrt the people freaking out back in November.

People bitched. I disagreed.

Get over it.

 

[HTFN]

I would prefer they go with "best lines possible" vs NYI in the next game because they're right on our heels and keeping pace the last 10 games.

Depending on how that goes they might experiment more vs some of the Western teams in the 4 games following. Or maybe not.

Definitely should be trying to fire on all cylinders by the Pens game that follows.

IMO

Okay then let's pin you to something:

If the lines for the Isles game suck, will you at least say something about how the process itself is broken a little and allow us to say our pieces without rebuke?

Because at this point I genuinely don't trust that man to make good lineup choices, and that's a shame because I was really positive on him when hired.

 

[RedRocking]

Uh….ok. I’m going to try and shift the conversation slightly. With all the angst about Strome the past few days, I’ve been trying to figure out where/if he fits in with club longer term.

He’s been real solid this year, definitely one of the best forwards, and best center. However, his skillset and style is so similar to Nick’s, it’s almost uncanny. So, what happens if Nick sustains his comeback and plays out his contract? What will Strome’s qualifying offer be, and will it be worth it (with all the FA needs) given the $ wrapped up in 19 and 92? It’s frustrating because neither 19 nor 92 (at present) is a real contender level 1C - but Strome isn’t really either IMO. Moreover, collectively the three guys are either too slow (19, 17), and/or suck defensively (92, 17). If Nick returns to form, maybe he can be the 200 ft guy to offset Strome/Kuzy.

Then the next consideration is the logjam of potential centers in the pipeline - Protas, CMM, Lappy - competing for 3C next year (or maybe Protas goes to 4C, and Dowd moves to 3C). All cheaper. Do we really want to block those options to run Kuzy-Nick-Strome-Dowd? Again, not sure I like the mix of skillsets of those top 3 centers. Maybe it’s worth it to just keep Strome around for Nick’s eventual retirement after 24-25? (or sooner pending health). It’s also generally not a good move to let a top 6 center just walk.

As a temporary replacement for Backstrom, one almost couldn’t imagine a better fit than Strome - he’s like a younger, less polished clone. The move by GMBM was a great hedge against Nick’s health. If Nick can’t resume his career, locking up Strome is a no-brainer. However, if Nick is able to resume his career, I think a temporary hedge may be all Strome is to the organization.

What do all you smart hockey folks think of the situation?

 

[artilector]

It's amazing how just like in the past, the moment it looks like the Caps may have something cooking with younger players, and I start watching games again, suddenly some vets return and the Caps go back to looking like more or less an expensive retirement home on skates.

What Lavi has done to the lines is so moronic that it's actually a bit hard to believe. You almost want to question if this could be some kind of coaching trick to show Backstrom & Wilson that they are far from being able to help in leading roles, and thus obtain the "coaching points" to move them down the depth chart (at least for the time being) without there being any controversy. Which would be madness, but at least there would be some kind of method to it with a plausible positive outcome.

FWIW, my lines would be:

Ovi-Strome-Sheary
Milano-Kuz-Wilson
Mojo-Backstrom-Oshie
Eller/Mantha-Dowd-Hath

1st line stays for as long as it's working (and then some)
2nd line I like the potential and fit of Milano+Kuz pairing (especially if we're hoping to find some magic for a run), and if Wilson can recover his form, he would seem a good candidate to balance these guys. If Mantha gets another chance, I'd try him there -- with Wilson going to the 4th line until he's closer to form
3rd line is the defensively responsible retirement line chaperoned by Mojo, the main goal being to promote a safe space version of hockey with no offensive activities tolerated either for or against. Could be Eller or Mantha instead of Mojo, but I think Mojo's speed is more important in a senior care context.
4th line is just Dowd+Hath plus whoever... if not Protas/NAK then I guess Eller, because how else is Lavi gonna keep him in the lineup.

Mantha needs to be traded, at least if any kind of decent return could be obtained. This team has (and has had for a decade+) just too many high skill/low output players, and he's simply the farthest down on the club membership/positional need hierarchy.

Overall, I don't really have any expectations about playoffs, but I'll consider this season a win if the Caps can simply keep Strome & Milano (& Orlov). Suddenly there seems to be a real possibility of a smooth transition out of the Ovi/Backstrom/Carlson/Oshie era with Orlov/Wilson?/Kuz??/Strome/Milano becoming the next vets to provide a high floor (and watchable hockey) for the kids like Lapierre & Miro and make things interesting if those kids can hit their ceiling.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Uh….ok. I’m going to try and shift the conversation slightly. With all the angst about Strome the past few days, I’ve been trying to figure out where/if he fits in with club longer term.

He’s been real solid this year, definitely one of the best forwards, and best center. However, his skillset and style is so similar to Nick’s, it’s almost uncanny. So, what happens if Nick sustains his comeback and plays out his contract? What will Strome’s qualifying offer be, and will it be worth it (with all the FA needs) given the $ wrapped up in 19 and 92? It’s frustrating because neither 19 nor 92 (at present) is a real contender level 1C - but Strome isn’t really either IMO. Moreover, collectively the three guys are either too slow (19, 17), and/or suck defensively (92, 17). If Nick returns to form, maybe he can be the 200 ft guy to offset Strome/Kuzy.

Then the next consideration is the logjam of potential centers in the pipeline - Protas, CMM, Lappy - competing for 3C next year (or maybe Protas goes to 4C, and Dowd moves to 3C). All cheaper. Do we really want to block those options to run Kuzy-Nick-Strome-Dowd? Again, not sure I like the mix of skillsets of those top 3 centers. Maybe it’s worth it to just keep Strome around for Nick’s eventual retirement after 24-25? (or sooner pending health). It’s also generally not a good move to let a top 6 center just walk.

As a temporary replacement for Backstrom, one almost couldn’t imagine a better fit than Strome - he’s like a younger, less polished clone. The move by GMBM was a great hedge against Nick’s health. If Nick can’t resume his career, locking up Strome is a no-brainer. However, if Nick is able to resume his career, I think a temporary hedge may be all Strome is to the organization.

What do all you smart hockey folks think of the situation?

Have we yet seen any evidence Nick will return to even 75% of his past playing level? If not, what makes one expect this outcome? The track record for returning from his injury type is pretty grim.

 

[g00n]

https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2023/01/15/why-the-capitals-should-scratch-player-x

 

[Roshi]

Uh….ok. I’m going to try and shift the conversation slightly. With all the angst about Strome the past few days, I’ve been trying to figure out where/if he fits in with club longer term.

He’s been real solid this year, definitely one of the best forwards, and best center. However, his skillset and style is so similar to Nick’s, it’s almost uncanny. So, what happens if Nick sustains his comeback and plays out his contract? What will Strome’s qualifying offer be, and will it be worth it (with all the FA needs) given the $ wrapped up in 19 and 92? It’s frustrating because neither 19 nor 92 (at present) is a real contender level 1C - but Strome isn’t really either IMO. Moreover, collectively the three guys are either too slow (19, 17), and/or suck defensively (92, 17). If Nick returns to form, maybe he can be the 200 ft guy to offset Strome/Kuzy.

Then the next consideration is the logjam of potential centers in the pipeline - Protas, CMM, Lappy - competing for 3C next year (or maybe Protas goes to 4C, and Dowd moves to 3C). All cheaper. Do we really want to block those options to run Kuzy-Nick-Strome-Dowd? Again, not sure I like the mix of skillsets of those top 3 centers. Maybe it’s worth it to just keep Strome around for Nick’s eventual retirement after 24-25? (or sooner pending health). It’s also generally not a good move to let a top 6 center just walk.

As a temporary replacement for Backstrom, one almost couldn’t imagine a better fit than Strome - he’s like a younger, less polished clone. The move by GMBM was a great hedge against Nick’s health. If Nick can’t resume his career, locking up Strome is a no-brainer. However, if Nick is able to resume his career, I think a temporary hedge may be all Strome is to the organization.

What do all you smart hockey folks think of the situation?

I dont consider myself as a smart hockey folk, but id just boringly say its way early to make decisions. Stromes RFA-status gives us all the window we need to wait and see it out. And he wont be expensive enough to count him out even if Backy is a regular from this point onwards.

So lets take the 40 games and a summer before slotting our centers for next season

edit. ideal situation is to have 3 elite centers while Kuzy, Backy and Strome all hitting their ceilings at the same time, while Strome also accepting his QO and making pretty much close to what Eller was this season. That would leave CMM as the odd man out, again. But imo theres just too many variables right now and best approach is to let the games roll.

 

[895]

I think Peter Laviolette is a war criminal and should be sent to The Hague in chains.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Uh….ok. I’m going to try and shift the conversation slightly. With all the angst about Strome the past few days, I’ve been trying to figure out where/if he fits in with club longer term.

He’s been real solid this year, definitely one of the best forwards, and best center. However, his skillset and style is so similar to Nick’s, it’s almost uncanny. So, what happens if Nick sustains his comeback and plays out his contract? What will Strome’s qualifying offer be, and will it be worth it (with all the FA needs) given the $ wrapped up in 19 and 92? It’s frustrating because neither 19 nor 92 (at present) is a real contender level 1C - but Strome isn’t really either IMO. Moreover, collectively the three guys are either too slow (19, 17), and/or suck defensively (92, 17). If Nick returns to form, maybe he can be the 200 ft guy to offset Strome/Kuzy.

Then the next consideration is the logjam of potential centers in the pipeline - Protas, CMM, Lappy - competing for 3C next year (or maybe Protas goes to 4C, and Dowd moves to 3C). All cheaper. Do we really want to block those options to run Kuzy-Nick-Strome-Dowd? Again, not sure I like the mix of skillsets of those top 3 centers. Maybe it’s worth it to just keep Strome around for Nick’s eventual retirement after 24-25? (or sooner pending health). It’s also generally not a good move to let a top 6 center just walk.

As a temporary replacement for Backstrom, one almost couldn’t imagine a better fit than Strome - he’s like a younger, less polished clone. The move by GMBM was a great hedge against Nick’s health. If Nick can’t resume his career, locking up Strome is a no-brainer. However, if Nick is able to resume his career, I think a temporary hedge may be all Strome is to the organization.

What do all you smart hockey folks think of the situation?

On the Strome question, it depends on his contract demands. If he can be had for $5m or so, you sign him and move Kuznetsov.

Kuzy has been my second favorite cap for years now. He's the only jersey I've ever had. But he looks terrible, he's over 30, he makes more than Strome will (assuming reasonable demands from Strome) and I doubt he has the commitment to improving or returning to form he'll need to have a successful back half of his career.

And he should still have value to someone out there looking for a 2C. As we know, Cs are very hard to find.

Edit: What was the deal with all those Hawks fans who told us how bad Strome was? He's had like 2 bad games so far and many good ones.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

 

[Peeri]

I mean people around here must be excited to see this. It's not perfect but certainly upgrade from last games. Also it's almost funny that Strome went from being scratched back to 1st line center.

 

[g00n]

I mean people around here must be excited to see this. It's not perfect but certainly upgrade from last games. Also it's almost funny that Strome went from being scratched back to 1st line center.

Almost exactly the lines I proposed, but with Milano and Mojo swapped, which is a fine variation, as would be potentially swapping Oshie and Wilson imo.


HMMMMMMMMMMM

Is everyone finally satisfied?

Okay then let's pin you to something:

If the lines for the Isles game suck, will you at least say something about how the process itself is broken a little and allow us to say our pieces without rebuke?

Because at this point I genuinely don't trust that man to make good lineup choices, and that's a shame because I was really positive on him when hired.

Thoughts?