Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

You mean like the team just did with a guy who was so bad his most positive impact on the 4th line was to be injured and removed from it? They already do that, just backwards, and they just limped through and "wasted" a season by being so risk averse.

who was the young PK specialist was held out over Hagelin? CMM is shit at wing and can’t fill that role. AJF is a better NHL pk’er?

 

[John Price]

Mike does the Nats too, good for him

 

[g00n]

Nick behind on rehab.

Who didn't see that coming.

Over, it is.

 

[Langway]

The article itself doesn't indicate ahead or behind re: 19 so the tweet is rather misleading. We won't really know for a few months yet.

 

[HTFN]

who was the young PK specialist was held out over Hagelin? CMM is shit at wing and can’t fill that role. AJF is a better NHL pk’er?

try to act like Hagelin was living off special teams instead of playing 16/17+ minutes in games, including even strength, while others got stapled to the bench after the first period.

or explain how the "earn it" coach saw the 4th line get better immediately after losing Hagelin to injury.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

try to act like Hagelin was living off special teams instead of playing 16/17+ minutes in games, including even strength, while others got stapled to the bench after the first period.

or explain how the "earn it" coach saw the 4th line get better immediately after losing Hagelin to injury.

I’m not acting like anything….The obsession over Hags by some of you is disturbing lol….nice dodge. He was in the lineup for his defensive play. So what better young guy was being held back from that role?

I‘d need to see a detailed analysis of the 4th line with and without Hags, the individual defensive impacts, of him vs his replacements, PK, etc….to answer your question.

If those show some youngster clearly should have been in the lineup over him for that role, then Lavi made a mistake.

 

[DWGie26]

I think Lavi’s message of getting younger in a public statement was just as much (probably more) about getting the youngsters attention. He is saying there is an opportunity for you if you want to grab it. Coaches use the media like that all the time!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nick behind on rehab.

Who didn't see that coming.

Over, it is.

He doesn’t exactly come across as a rehab warrior either.

 

[DWGie26]

Our PK (and 4th line) was better when Hagelin was playing earlier this year. And our Center position is better with Backstrom. It does look like injuries and age are catching both of them, but these are good players with term on their contract And unfortunately injuries happened before their contracts are up. That kinda stuff happens. Lindros and others are good examples.

 

[twabby]

I disagree….it’s not like he was crushing it offensively……he’s rather poor at wing, and noticeably better at C. His finishing was ugly for a gifted offensive scorer (8.5%)…..

it’s also not hard to see TVR is not a top-pair guy to saddle to Carlson.

McMichael wasn't crushing it offensively but he was still driving play, an attribute that this team sorely lacks and needs more of especially in the postseason. I don't need to remind you that Washington has literally the worst 5v5 chance generation and goal-scoring of any team in the postseason since 2018, and I probably don't also need to remind you that Lars Eller individually has been one of the worst 5v5 chance- and goal- generators in the postseason since 2018.

I'm not someone who watches the games but I think it's possible Connor McMichael's poor shooting was in part due to gripping his stick a little tight, knowing full well that if he went a few games without scoring he'd be back riding the pine or eating nachos. Perhaps if he knew he had the freedom to work through a dry spell he'd have a bit more confidence in his shot? Or perhaps he just had poor shooting-luck. It happens, especially over a small 105 SOG sample. It's tough to believe that a player who was known for having a good shot in juniors and had a good shot in Hershey suddenly forgot how to shoot.

Regarding the TVR point: did Fehervary show anything in calendar year 2022 that indicated he was a top 4 defenseman? Even his biggest proponents would say he struggled post-COVID and that his postseason was a train-wreck. Meanwhile TVR was solid down the stretch and probably their best postseason defender, yet he got the fewest 5v5 minutes of all their defenders in the postseason. So if we're saying players can earn their ice time, why wasn't TVR given more minutes and Fehervary fewer? That's what their on-ice play warranted.

The TVR/Fehervary example is why I'm careful not to say that I think Laviolette hates youth, but rather that he dislikes deviating from the plan whatever that plan might be. He's stubborn to a fault IMO. McMichael wasn't really part of the plan entering last season, so he never became a roster regular. McMichael wasn't one of Laviolette's guys, unlike Fehervary who was given ample time (too much IMO) to work through his issues last season because he was part of the plan entering last season.

It's tough for me to imagine Laviolette suddenly becoming more flexible entering this season and that's my biggest concern when it comes to coaching.

 

[HTFN]

I’m not acting like anything….The obsession over Hags by some of you is disturbing lol….nice dodge. He was in the lineup for his defensive play. So what better young guy was being held back from that role?

I‘d need to see a detailed analysis of the 4th line with and without Hags, the individual defensive impacts, of him vs his replacements, PK, etc….to answer your question.

If those show some youngster clearly should have been in the lineup over him for that role, then Lavi made a mistake.

There you go, changing things up again and making it about the "role". That was the whole goddamn point, he's a defensive and PK specialist at best. Playing him a lot in games where you need to score a goal is braindead and happened all the time.

He didn't just get his role, he also got roles other players could have (and probably should have) occupied, both because they were better suited to them and because the experience going forward would have been valuable.

Playing Carl Hagelin in a game when you're down by 2 and then shrugging because nobody else has experience is basically eating your own tail.

 

[HTFN]

McMichael wasn't crushing it offensively but he was still driving play, an attribute that this team sorely lacks and needs more of especially in the postseason. I don't need to remind you that Washington has literally the worst 5v5 chance generation of any team in the postseason since 2018.

I'm not someone who watches the games but I think it's possible Connor McMichael's poor shooting was in part due to gripping his stick a little tight, knowing full well that if he went a few games without scoring he'd be back riding the pine or eating nachos. Perhaps if he knew he had the freedom to work through a dry spell he'd have a bit more confidence in his shot? Or perhaps he just had poor shooting-luck. It happens, especially over a small 105 SOG sample. It's tough to believe that a player who was known for having a good shot in juniors and had a good shot in Hershey suddenly forgot how to shoot.

Regarding the TVR point: did Fehervary show anything in calendar year 2022 that indicated he was a top 4 defenseman? Even his biggest proponents would say he struggled post-COVID and that his postseason was a train-wreck. Meanwhile TVR was solid down the stretch and probably their best postseason defender, yet he got the fewest 5v5 minutes of all their defenders in the postseason. So if we're saying players can earn their ice time, why wasn't TVR given more minutes and Fehervary fewer?

The TVR/Fehervary example is why I'm careful not to say that I think Laviolette hates youth, but rather that he dislikes deviating from the plan whatever that plan might be. He's stubborn to a fault IMO. McMichael wasn't really part of the plan entering last season, so he never became a roster regular. McMichael wasn't one of Laviolette's guys, unlike Fehervary who was given ample time (too much IMO) to work through his issues last season because he was part of the plan entering last season.

It's tough for me to imagine Laviolette suddenly becoming more flexible entering this season and that's my biggest concern.

These are both things I agree with. Deviation from the plan, risk, whatever it is. Fehervary is an outlier in the youth v. veterans thing but strangely fits right in with the "what do you actually have to do to 'earn it'" camp.

I like the guy and still thought he had his ups and downs, was surprised to see him just keep playing top minutes no matter what

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

McMichael wasn't crushing it offensively but he was still driving play, an attribute that this team sorely lacks and needs more of especially in the postseason. I don't need to remind you that Washington has literally the worst 5v5 chance generation and goal-scoring of any team in the postseason since 2018.

I'm not someone who watches the games but I think it's possible Connor McMichael's poor shooting was in part due to gripping his stick a little tight, knowing full well that if he went a few games without scoring he'd be back riding the pine or eating nachos. Perhaps if he knew he had the freedom to work through a dry spell he'd have a bit more confidence in his shot? Or perhaps he just had poor shooting-luck. It happens, especially over a small 105 SOG sample. It's tough to believe that a player who was known for having a good shot in juniors and had a good shot in Hershey suddenly forgot how to shoot.

Regarding the TVR point: did Fehervary show anything in calendar year 2022 that indicated he was a top 4 defenseman? Even his biggest proponents would say he struggled post-COVID and that his postseason was a train-wreck. Meanwhile TVR was solid down the stretch and probably their best postseason defender, yet he got the fewest 5v5 minutes of all their defenders in the postseason. So if we're saying players can earn their ice time, why wasn't TVR given more minutes and Fehervary fewer?

The TVR/Fehervary example is why I'm careful not to say that I think Laviolette hates youth, but rather that he dislikes deviating from the plan whatever that plan might be. He's stubborn to a fault IMO. McMichael wasn't really part of the plan entering last season, so he never became a roster regular. McMichael wasn't one of Laviolette's guys, unlike Fehervary who was given ample time (too much IMO) to work through his issues last season because he was part of the plan entering last season.

It's tough for me to imagine Laviolette suddenly becoming more flexible entering this season and that's my biggest concern.

sure anything is possible, but more likely he was simply playing with the understandable uncertainty and nerves of a rookie playing in the Pros a year or so ahead of the normal development path he would have taken prior to the pandemic. Either way, it showed he wasn’t quite ready.

Fever, by several organization accounts was ready for the NHL, a year earlier. His play in camp won him the top pair spot. He’s got the wheels and physicality that make it and was an easier fit than a CMM trying to fit his top-6 game into a bottom-6 roster spot. Fever showed me he at least has earned a top-4 spot because he was thrust into a primary role and did arguably well for a rookie with all the pressure in the world, by not being a nightly tire fire. He had his ups and downs, but was better than expected in that role for me. A TVR-Carlson pairing is not sustainable as a successful top-pair IMO.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There you go, changing things up again and making it about the "role". That was the whole goddamn point, he's a defensive and PK specialist at best. Playing him a lot in games where you need to score a goal is braindead and happened all the time.

He didn't just get his role, he also got roles other players could have (and probably should have) occupied, both because they were better suited to them and because the experience going forward would have been valuable.

Playing Carl Hagelin in a game when you're down by 2 and then shrugging because nobody else has experience is basically eating your own tail.

Not sure why you have an issue with reality. Maybe your analysis is so basic in your head, you can’t appreciate the additional depth? Sorry man. It is absolutely about replacing a VERY specific role that the player was acquired specifically for.

im not arguing late game tactics….I’m talking about one guy capably replacing another who was filling a specialized role.

I too have a problem with Hags getting ice time down a goal+ late. It’s just two different issues.

 

[twabby]

sure anything is possible, but more likely he was simply playing with the understandable uncertainty and nerves of a rookie playing in the Pros a year or so ahead of the normal development path he would have taken prior to the pandemic. Either way, it showed he wasn’t quite ready.

Fever, by several organization accounts was ready for the NHL, a year earlier. His play in camp won him the top pair spot. He’s got the wheels and physicality that make it and was an easier fit than a CMM trying to fit his top-6 game into a bottom-6 roster spot. Fever showed me he at least has earned a top-4 spot because he was thrust into a primary role and did arguably well for a rookie with all the pressure in the world, by not being a nightly tire fire. He had his ups and downs, but was better than expected in that role for me. A TVR-Carlson pairing is not sustainable as a successful top-pair IMO.

So again how does benching him and limiting his minutes do anything to assuage his nervousness? I would think that getting more minutes and experience would help calm the nerves and make him a better player.

The point you make about Fehervary is concerning: they thought he was ready in the preseason, but his play on the ice showed that he wasn't really ready. Instead of using new evidence (his regular season play especially in calendar year 2022) to inform their decisions they stuck with their initial preseason assessment of him as a player, and as a result they did have a nightly tire fire in the postseason. I am afraid they are going to enter this season with the same mindset about Fehervary no matter if he actually plays well in a top 4 role or not.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So again how does benching him and limiting his minutes do anything to assuage his nervousness? I would think that getting more minutes and experience would help calm the nerves and make him a better player.

The point you make about Fehervary is concerning: they thought he was ready in the preseason, but his play on the ice showed that he wasn't really ready. Instead of using new evidence (his regular season play especially in calendar year 2022) to inform their decisions they stuck with their initial preseason assessment of him as a player, and as a result they did have a nightly tire fire in the postseason. I am afraid they are going to enter this season with the same mindset about Fehervary no matter if he actually plays well in a top 4 role or not.

It’s one of those life long chicken and egg arguments in sports. He needs to earn his ice time, yet he needs Ice time to gain the confidence to earn more ice time (because he’s not so elite that it’s just obvious he should playing now).

On a crap team, he’s probably firmly entrenched this year. On a deeply veteran-laden roster, a stronger individual performance is required to break through. He’s both a beneficiary and victim of circumstance….he’s a year ahead due to Covid, and also caught in a roster squeeze with a deep team who must make the playoffs.

Fever absolutely was ready. They put him in that spot certainly knowing he would struggle at times, yet still made the commitment to youth. Not sure how many rookie top pair guys you HAVEN’T seen in your Caps fandom, but they are often top-end talents and or tire fires, sometime both. That he’s NOT a blue chipper and wasn’t a tire fire…..that’s not getting enough love around here IMO.

You think he sucks and won‘t improve past 22….I disagree. Let’s see who is right In a year, 2, 3, 5….etc…if he progresses as I hope, we‘ll get to revisit this quite a bit.

 

[Langway]

Clearly there's something to work with here offensively. The main question is whether, if not at center, he'll be preferred to Johansson on the wing. He should be but I won't be at all surprised if he isn't. Whether it's Vrana or Sprong or McMichael, Lavi has shown that he's got any offensively-bent depth forward on a short leash. Ultimately they all tend to lose their confidence here and that's quite problematic developmentally. There's cementing the need to be well-rounded but also not completely sucking out what makes certain players fairly effective within their existing skill set. It takes a blend and forcing a cookie-cutter type approach isn't very realistic or flexible. Similar restraint is not used for higher effort, defensively-sound forwards that don't contribute much offensively so, at heart, this is mainly about balance, flexibility and process.

McMichael mainly has to earn it defensively and in battles first and foremost rather than further refining his game offensively so much. This will be the case on a fundamental level with any prospect any time soon. So it does beg the question of whether more limited, weaker, defensively-suspect prospects have much of a realistic path without greatly diversifying their game. It also calls into question organizational cohesion in that if defense and battle level is so crucial where is the drafting backing up those values? We don't really see it up front at all. It's all raw upside shots, which is still the way to go ultimately. You'd just hope in later rounds they'd be far more selective and in sync with those same values.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Clearly there's something to work with here offensively. The main question is whether, if not at center, he'll be preferred to Johansson on the wing. He should be but I won't be at all surprised if he isn't. Whether it's Vrana or Sprong or McMichael, Lavi has shown that he's got any offensively-bent depth forward on a short leash. Ultimately they all tend to lose their confidence here and that's quite problematic developmentally. There's cementing the need to be well-rounded but also not completely sucking out what makes certain players fairly effective within their existing skill set. It takes a blend and forcing a cookie-cutter type approach isn't very realistic or flexible. Similar restraint is not used for higher effort, defensively-sound forwards that don't contribute much offensively so, at heart, this is mainly about balance, flexibility and process.

McMichael mainly has to earn it defensively and in battles first and foremost rather than further refining his game offensively so much. This will be the case on a fundamental level with any prospect any time soon. So it does beg the question of whether more limited, weaker, defensively-suspect prospects have much of a realistic path without greatly diversifying their game. It also calls into question organizational cohesion in that if defense and battle level is so crucial where is the drafting backing up those values? We don't really see it up front at all. It's all raw upside shots, which is still the way to go ultimately. You'd just hope in later rounds they'd be far more selective and in sync with those same values.

There’s no doubt if suddenly he developed a quality seasoned vet defensive/board game he would be more palatable to Lavi, but if he put up 20g last year, regardless of his current defensive ability, he would likely be penciled in the lineup right now. Offensive refinement is easily as important.

 

[Langway]

It's only been, like, 15 years since a certain someone scored 20+ as a Caps rookie. That's the last time it's happened IINM. so a high bar for most. Only Burakovsky since has even broken 15. That would have still done the trick perhaps but even that would come with a short leash. Generating chances and helping to put pressure on the other team has to count for something. It's not everything but on this team at this stage they need shooters and players attacking with some urgency. Again, it's something to develop and kind of a startling stat all things considered. It speaks more to the rest of the team than him.

Not every rookie will be so weak in two-way play and strength but fundamentally the vast majority of their skilled forward prospects tend to be. It's a conundrum. As the team ages further the stakes increase and margins narrow to the point where if these current points of emphasis/perspective don't shift works in progress probably won't be afforded the runway needed to blossom. There's the AHL but in general their developmental track record isn't great. Maybe they should better target more natural two-way players than tax a system that hasn't been overly fruitful churning them out.

 

[twabby]

Clearly there's something to work with here offensively. The main question is whether, if not at center, he'll be preferred to Johansson on the wing. He should be but I won't be at all surprised if he isn't. Whether it's Vrana or Sprong or McMichael, Lavi has shown that he's got any offensively-bent depth forward on a short leash. Ultimately they all tend to lose their confidence here and that's quite problematic developmentally. There's cementing the need to be well-rounded but also not completely sucking out what makes certain players fairly effective within their existing skill set. It takes a blend and forcing a cookie-cutter type approach isn't very realistic or flexible. Similar restraint is not used for higher effort, defensively-sound forwards that don't contribute much offensively so, at heart, this is mainly about balance, flexibility and process.

McMichael mainly has to earn it defensively and in battles first and foremost rather than further refining his game offensively so much. This will be the case on a fundamental level with any prospect any time soon. So it does beg the question of whether more limited, weaker, defensively-suspect prospects have much of a realistic path without greatly diversifying their game. It also calls into question organizational cohesion in that if defense and battle level is so crucial where is the drafting backing up those values? We don't really see it up front at all. It's all raw upside shots, which is still the way to go ultimately. You'd just hope in later rounds they'd be far more selective and in sync with those same values.

I generally agree with this, but even if Laviolette is looking for defensive aptitude first he showed plenty of it last year. Among all regulars on the team last year McMichael ranked as the best in terms of EVD WAR/60, and behind only Nic Dowd and TVR in terms of xGA/60. And his actual GA/60 was right in line with the team average, for those who don't care about expected stats or WAR. Maybe he doesn't battle along the boards or whatever, but if they are hyper-focused on that style of defense rather than looking at the overall substance of a player's defensive game then that adds another layer of concern.

It again just makes me believe there was nothing McMichael could have really done to get top 9 ice time last year aside from being an Ovechkin or Backstrom as a rookie, an unrealistically high bar as you mentioned.

McMichael wasn't part of the plan. It didn't matter that he was fine to very good defensively depending on what metric you look at, it didn't matter that he generated a bunch of chances individually while having some of the worst QoT of all Capitals forwards and probably the most inconsistent linemates at TOI of all players, it didn't matter that those he was competing against (Backstrom and Eller) had awful seasons for one reason or another.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's only been, like, 15 years since a certain someone scored 20+ as a Caps rookie. That's the last time it's happened IINM. so a high bar for most. Only Burakovsky since has even broken 15. That would have still done the trick perhaps but even that would come with a short leash. Generating chances and helping to put pressure on the other team has to count for something. It's not everything but on this team at this stage they need shooters and players attacking with some urgency. Again, it's something to develop and kind of a startling stat all things considered. It speaks more to the rest of the team than him.

Not every rookie will be so weak in two-way play and strength but fundamentally the vast majority of their skilled forward prospects tend to be. It's a conundrum. As the team ages further the stakes increase and margins narrow to the point where if these current points of emphasis/perspective don't shift works in progress probably won't be afforded the runway needed to blossom. There's the AHL but in general their developmental track record isn't great. Maybe they should better target more natural two-way players than tax a system that hasn't been overly fruitful churning them out.

I’m just saying….he could have made an impact statement in his bread and butter side of the game (offense) and didn’t.

I could have easily said 18 or 15 goals or 30-40 pts and he’d likely still be pencilled in IMO.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I generally agree with this, but even if Laviolette is looking for defensive aptitude first he showed plenty of it last year. Among all regulars on the team last year McMichael ranked as the best in terms of EVD WAR/60, and behind only Nic Dowd and TVR in terms of xGA/60. And his actual GA/60 was right in line with the team average, for those who don't care about expected stats or WAR. Maybe he doesn't battle along the boards or whatever, but if they are hyper-focused on that style of defense rather than looking at the overall substance of a player's defensive game then that adds another layer of concern.

It again just makes me believe there was nothing McMichael could have really done to get top 9 ice time last year aside from being an Ovechkin or Backstrom as a rookie, an unrealistically high bar as you mentioned.

McMichael wasn't part of the plan. It didn't matter that he was fine to very good defensively depending on what metric you look at, it didn't matter that he generated a bunch of chances individually while having some of the worst QoT of all Capitals forwards and probably the most inconsistent linemates at TOI of all players, it didn't matter that those he was competing against (Backstrom and Eller) had awful seasons for one reason or another.

I think that’s fair….not in a full time sense he wasn’t, and he didn’t do much to change their minds.

“Very good defensively” is funny….he‘s was weak on the boards and therefor was a liability at times. That’s not “very good”. I hope he comes to camp with some added strength and mobility. He needs it to make a large step forward.

 

[twabby]

I think that’s fair….not in a full time sense he wasn’t, and he didn’t do much to change their minds.

“Very good defensively” is funny….he‘s was weak on the boards and therefor was a liability at times. That’s not “very good”. I hope he comes to camp with some added strength and mobility. He needs it to make a large step forward.

That’s like saying Nicklas Backstrom has had a terrible slap slot for his entire career, and therefore stinks offensively.

Perhaps being strong on the boards simply isn’t that important to being an overall strong defensive player? The stats certainly don’t seem to indicate any glaring defensive issues in McMichael’s game. The comparables and the aging curve similarly predict another strong defensive effort from him next year.

 

[Langway]

Who needs microstats or analytics when you have hunches? I guarantee 100% the staff believes Fehervary is better defensively than McMichael. Some of it's perhaps a stylistic, aesthetic judgement but that's in part what they're adhering to. When you have a coach that loves vets any inexperienced option with somewhat glaring deficits will stick out like a sore thumb even if outcomes are better than you might think. I'm sure it's a pet peeve of sorts. Maybe with another half dozen goals doubts could have been muted somewhat but later in games I doubt it would have changed much. He'll still need to prove himself until he displays all of the pro qualities to be sufficiently generic. Maybe he'd have a spot penciled in but that may only be good for 10 minutes a night, if that, and it's still pencil.

Given years of unproductive 5v5 play in the playoffs with not much beyond cosmetic changes you've got to wonder if MacLellan has it in him to make the hard changes needed or to help spearhead a more fundamental evolution in tactics. Right now it's all about the goaltenders and he definitely did well for himself there. Bigger picture it's likely still not quite there with the skaters to squarely put them in the contender tier. They're good enough for the playoffs and to keep the status quo going but there needs to be more directed effort toward improvement than I expect in practice. It's likely to be just the same old approach with a few new faces and not much more. Organizationally I'm not sure they can afford to be for static for too much longer.

 

[Raikkonen]

NB needs to be behind the schedule to be ready exactly for playoffs start BTW