Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

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traparatus

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The complaint around here has long been "Lavi hates rookies and young players". It came from Nashville and possibly earlier, and it's a fan narrative. I'm not making it up.

It seems like you're talking about something different...late game deployment strategy in general is not the same as making roster decisions regarding rookies vs veterans.

Maybe it CAN inform roster decisions but if you have a coach that's either snubbing CLEARLY better young players in favor of shitty veterans in general, or just for late game defensive preference, you probably objectively have a bad coach who will eventually be fired after that strategy backfires enough times that whatever excuses he trots out in discussions with his GM and President fall flat.

I don't have first hand knowledge but I have to believe Lavi's roster and deployment choices have been dissected in this context many, many times. If a coach has clearly better offensive stars and he refuses to use them he's going to run afoul of the front office, especially after shitting out in the 1st round several years in a row.

So again, back to the point, which is mostly constant complaining about CMM's ice time....if these younger players were clearly standing out to the staff as much better options in some way I'm sure the coaches and FO would respond accordingly, rather standing pat out of some stubborn presumed preference for veterans at all costs.

They have a very clear self-interest in NOT being pig-headed dummies who elevate shitty players over good ones, and if they're ignoring that self-interest then eventually it will bite them all in the ass.

Are we saying Lavi is a bad coach who needs to be fired because he's not playing CMM?

And if the issue is late-game deployment, then we have to assume it's what the Caps FO wants, again because we can be reasonably sure they're talking about this sort of thing constantly.
The thing is that coaches who have stubbornly stood by veteran players have indeed been proven wrong and fired. It happens all the time. Laviolette is going to be fired eventually, I'm sure of it.

Coaches like Laviolette are not in a position to have a long term look at the team and figure out how to create a winner, perhaps not this season but a few seasons down the road. They are risk averse and take no chances. It would have been better for the team to feed CMM more ice time last season, I have no doubt about it. Playing Eller game in and game out did nothing to improve the team's fortunes and CMM missed out a valuable development opportunity.

All in all, Capitals were a better team when a whole bunch of vets were not available for Laviolette to spoon feed them ice time. In another example of lack of foresight, Caps spent months last season waiting for Backstrom to come back and fix their abysmal power play. At no point did they attempt to modify the system to fit the personnel available. This doesn't exactly set them up for success in the coming season and this situation was entirely predictable.
 

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Damn… missed a lot of fun while off traveling. And this is my favorite argument over last year.

Most of it has already been said, so I won’t rehash. But coaches are paid to win with the players they are given. And i have seen it at every level where coaches prefer a high floor over high ceiling. In the NHL in particular, mistakes cost you and coaches want to avoid that Which is why young players get sheltered and sat late in close games (including OV in his youth).

Before annointing lineups, lets see what Camp brings. There are a lot of position battles this year!
 
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g00n

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The thing is that coaches who have stubbornly stood by veteran players have indeed been proven wrong and fired. It happens all the time. Laviolette is going to be fired eventually, I'm sure of it.

Coaches like Laviolette are not in a position to have a long term look at the team and figure out how to create a winner, perhaps not this season but a few seasons down the road. They are risk averse and take no chances. It would have been better for the team to feed CMM more ice time last season, I have no doubt about it. Playing Eller game in and game out did nothing to improve the team's fortunes and CMM missed out a valuable development opportunity.

All in all, Capitals were a better team when a whole bunch of vets were not available for Laviolette to spoon feed them ice time. In another example of lack of foresight, Caps spent months last season waiting for Backstrom to come back and fix their abysmal power play. At no point did they attempt to modify the system to fit the personnel available. This doesn't exactly set them up for success in the coming season and this situation was entirely predictable.

If a young Ovechkin or Backstrom were in CMM's place do you think Lavi would play them over Eller?

Why do you think the Caps FO hired Lavi? They hired him to win now, with the vet core we have. Even when Trotz was here that was the mantra. They even said "this is not a development league".

Is that wrong? Maybe. But it's not all on Lavi. It's clearly the will of the top brass.

But in general, as I said, any coach who "stubbornly" plays clearly worse veterans over clearly better prospects SHOULD be fired.

But is that happening here? It's not the same as playing arguably worse vets over arguably better prospect. Or doing so out of stubborn bias vs having some reasonable rationale.

It's a fan's perspective to think CMM is massively outplaying internal competition such that veterans can be moved aside. Fans always want the newer, shinier, faster, yet-untainted toys. The Caps leadership see something else.

Maybe they're wrong, but I doubt Lavi is just going against the philosophy of his bosses here. If that's the case then the lot of them need to be evaluated due to dysfunction.

Do we think that's what's happening...Ted and his people are calling for a youth movement and Lavi is resisting, even as his job hangs in the balance?

Again, if they struggle mightily and fail this season you will get your wish. He will be gone and so will 1/2 to 2/3 of the team.
 
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HTFN

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If a young Ovechkin or Backstrom were in CMM's place do you think Lavi would play them over Eller?

Why do you think the Caps FO hired Lavi? They hired him to win now, with the vet core we have. Even when Trotz was here that was the mantra. They even said "this is not a development league".

Is that wrong? Maybe. But it's not all on Lavi. It's clearly the will of the top brass.

But in general, as I said, any coach who "stubbornly" plays clearly worse veterans over clearly better prospects SHOULD be fired.

But is that happening here? It's not the same as playing arguably worse vets over arguably better prospect. Or doing so out of stubborn bias vs having some reasonable rationale.

It's a fan's perspective to think CMM is massively outplaying internal competition such that veterans can be moved aside. Fans always want the newer, shinier, faster, yet-untainted toys. The Caps leadership see something else.

Maybe they're wrong, but I doubt Lavi is just going against the philosophy of his bosses here. If that's the case then the lot of them need to be evaluated due to dysfunction.

Do we think that's what's happening...Ted and his people are calling for a youth movement and Lavi is resisting, even as his job hangs in the balance?

Again, if they struggle mightily and fail this season you will get your wish. He will be gone and so will 1/2 to 2/3 of the team.
It depends on how we're defining "playing" somebody. If it's just depth chart shuffling then honestly no, it doesn't matter, but it's not just about that.

I've tried to make this point and maybe gotten lost in the weeds before but when you're looking at a game as time goes on through win probability, at a certain point defense and treading water just doesn't do anything for you. It's not how low McMichael is on the depth chart, it's that he found himself stapled to the bench even in situations where it arguably shouldn't have mattered (and his potential to do something offensively is actually more of a boon than the players who were seeing time).

The refusal to do that in, say, December is why there are no additional options in March, because even garbage time reps aren't going to players who could actually learn to do better. Of course in last year's case they actually had no choice around then, did great, and then bottled up those players and stuffed them back down to minimal time with few follow up opportunities.

I think he's almost definitely partially at odds with the philosophy of GMBM with regards to how last season's roster was constructed v. how it was used, which is why GMBM sounded a little more adamant about it through the offseason.

We talk about coaches that should be fired (Hanlon v. Backstrom) but the reverse is also not present. When Sullivan and the Penguins eat one thousand man games to injuries and throw all their shit at the wall, the ones that stick are allowed to stick and compete. That guy has won more and had a longer tenure than Laviolette so...?
 
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g00n

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It depends on how we're defining "playing" somebody. If it's just depth chart shuffling then honestly no, it doesn't matter, but it's not just about that.

I've tried to make this point and maybe gotten lost in the weeds before but when you're looking at a game as time goes on through win probability, at a certain point defense and treading water just doesn't do anything for you. It's not how low McMichael is on the depth chart, it's that he found himself stapled to the bench even in situations where it arguably shouldn't have mattered (and his potential to do something offensively is actually more of a boon than the players who were seeing time).

The refusal to do that in, say, December is why there are no additional options in March, because even garbage time reps aren't going to players who could actually learn to do better. Of course in last year's case they actually had no choice around then, did great, and then bottled up those players and stuffed them back down to minimal time with few follow up opportunities.

I think he's almost definitely partially at odds with the philosophy of GMBM with regards to how last season's roster was constructed v. how it was used, which is why GMBM sounded a little more adamant about it through the offseason.

We talk about coaches that should be fired (Hanlon v. Backstrom) but the reverse is also not present. When Sullivan and the Penguins eat one thousand man games to injuries and throw all their shit at the wall, the ones that stick are allowed to stick and compete. That guy has won more and had a longer tenure than Laviolette so...?

I think this just restates the previous complaints I was talking about wrt playing time and late game deployment?

I don't see how it addresses what I said regarding the coach thinking he's playing the guys who give him the best chance to win now.

What does "partially at odds" with the FO mean? Do we have some clear indication of that?
 
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HTFN

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I think this just restates the previous complaints I was talking about wrt playing time and late game deployment?

I don't see how it addresses what I said regarding the coach thinking he's playing the guys who give him the best chance to win now.

What does "partially at odds" with the FO mean? Do we have some clear indication of that?
No? Because those are the same players in both situations. I’m not just complaining about garbage time, I’m saying that his dogshit usage of players in garbage time also ensures that the team has no other “win now” options when they need to win now because they didn’t do dick shit all year to figure out what the other options even were. Coached the whole season like the next goal allowed would eliminate them from the playoffs, benched a bunch of successful youth, and then ended up tired and hurt when it mattered.

And you’re not likely to unless they want to be a total clownshoe organization but GMBM’s media presence from end of season to draft and beyond has not been what I would call “in line” with Laviolette’s apparent philosophy at the moment. They’re probably not at war but Laviolette is going to have to make an effort or they’ll be forced into finding someone else to make this transition.
 

g00n

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No? Because those are the same players in both situations. I’m not just complaining about garbage time, I’m saying that his dogshit usage of players in garbage time also ensures that the team has no other “win now” options when they need to win now because they didn’t do dick shit all year to figure out what the other options even were. Coached the whole season like the next goal allowed would eliminate them from the playoffs, benched a bunch of successful youth, and then ended up tired and hurt when it mattered.

And you’re not likely to unless they want to be a total clownshoe organization but GMBM’s media presence from end of season to draft and beyond has not been what I would call “in line” with Laviolette’s apparent philosophy at the moment. They’re probably not at war but Laviolette is going to have to make an effort or they’ll be forced into finding someone else to make this transition.

As I said, you probably won't have to worry about it. Either they win this year and Lavi makes a case for a new contract, as do some of the players who performed, or the lot of them are mostly gone.
 
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DWGie26

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I think he's almost definitely partially at odds with the philosophy of GMBM with regards to how last season's roster was constructed v. how it was used, which is why GMBM sounded a little more adamant about it through the offseason.
I don’t think they are necessarily at odds. I actually think they are aligned but are looking to evolve after three early exits And part of that path is to inject new players and youth.

We’ll see how Lavi plays them this year. But he is still going to play to win (not develop). But i could see him choosing a rookie at 50/50 (instead of 60/40).
 

CapitalsCupReality

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I don’t think they are necessarily at odds. I actually think they are aligned but are looking to evolve after three early exits And part of that path is to inject new players and youth.

We’ll see how Lavi plays them this year. But he is still going to play to win (not develop). But i could see him choosing a rookie at 50/50 (instead of 60/40).
this….the only thing likely at odds, fan expectations and the realities of managing a franchise.

I think GMBM and PL are in sync. That said, he also needs to get this team into the playoffs (or well on its way) to get an extension.
 
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HTFN

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this….the only thing likely at odds, fan expectations and the realities of managing a franchise.

I think GMBM and PL are in sync. That said, he also needs to get this team into the playoffs (or well on its way) to get an extension.
Buddy don't chime in now like you've got something you suddenly want to say. Reality of managing a franchise is that you eventually have to supplement talent from somewhere and can't build a developmental gap into your aging roster because you're afraid to trust the young parts of it.

See: the neglect, trade, and blossoming of one Jonas Siegenthaler (again)
 

HTFN

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I don’t think they are necessarily at odds. I actually think they are aligned but are looking to evolve after three early exits And part of that path is to inject new players and youth.

We’ll see how Lavi plays them this year. But he is still going to play to win (not develop). But i could see him choosing a rookie at 50/50 (instead of 60/40).
MacLellan's post-season pressers seemed to calmly but pointedly indicate that they were moving towards being younger in a way that didn't jive at all with the coaching down the stretch or his own deadline acquisitions. I pretty firmly believe that MacLellan acquired guys he thought the coaches would actually use after expecting more development through the season, and then floated out there that the same shit wouldn't necessarily fly next year

People treat these things like they're mutually exclusive but they're not. Continually developing young cost controlled assets is how you keep winning.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Buddy don't chime in now like you've got something you suddenly want to say. Reality of managing a franchise is that you eventually have to supplement talent from somewhere and can't build a developmental gap into your aging roster because you're afraid to trust the young parts of it.

See: the neglect, trade, and blossoming of one Jonas Siegenthaler (again)
you‘re comical….rambling on and on like nobody knows you have to develop guys…..eesh.

However you also don’t sacrifice the season just to rush to develop guys. You’ll get more time for that after Ovechkin retires.
 

Rayquaza64

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you‘re comical….rambling on and on like nobody knows you have to develop guys…..eesh.

However you also don’t sacrifice the season just to rush to develop guys. You’ll get more time for that after Ovechkin retires.
is giving mcmichael more than 10 minutes a night going to sacrifice the season?
 

DWGie26

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MacLellan's post-season pressers seemed to calmly but pointedly indicate that they were moving towards being younger in a way that didn't jive at all with the coaching down the stretch or his own deadline acquisitions. I pretty firmly believe that MacLellan acquired guys he thought the coaches would actually use after expecting more development through the season, and then floated out there that the same shit wouldn't necessarily fly next year

People treat these things like they're mutually exclusive but they're not. Continually developing young cost controlled assets is how you keep winning.
I mean, I guess. GMBM said at this presser (roughly speaking), goaltending was going to change and they wanted to get younger. then, as he usually does, went and did what he said.

Strome is only 25 and yet has 6 NHL seasons under his belt. Brown is 28 and on a good value for Wilson replacement. Snively less than a half a season. McMichael less than a season. AJF a handful of games. Leason less than a season. None of those guys had the experience or exude confidence for a playoff run. They all have a bit more experience now which is why i think those guys will play more this season because if they are just as good, they will play.

I want both. the best players to play. And hopefully the younger players step up and earn It.
 
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DWGie26

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Another thing for all of us to remember is that the lineup in September is going to be a lot different than what it is in April. And that is outside of injuries and stuff.

Does Hagelin push into the lineup at some point. Does CMM play well enough for Caps to feel comfortable trading Eller (doubt that happens Until at least November. Does AJF prove he can play 4LW. Does Snively pick up where he left off before wrist. Is Leason ready to play when he gets called on. Does Protas ball out in Hershey? How does Backstrom’s recovery go (if we *think* he can go in playoffs that will trigger trades. Does Alexyev push for a spot when healthy.

All that combined with so many contracts up I think we’ll see an unusual trade pattern for Caps this season. Actuals will depend on how things unfold but I suspect GMBM is going to be active.
 
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HTFN

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you‘re comical….rambling on and on like nobody knows you have to develop guys…..eesh.

However you also don’t sacrifice the season just to rush to develop guys. You’ll get more time for that after Ovechkin retires.
who is asking for that except your own strawman? there's no balance right now and it's creating a potential fracture that will eventually catch up to them

That would be a thing you could say if we didn't just sit through a season where those guys were pretty definitively underplayed to no real end, and again, ended in a veteran team being completely gassed and injured come playoff time.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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who is asking for that except your own strawman? there's no balance right now and it's creating a potential fracture that will eventually catch up to them

That would be a thing you could say if we didn't just sit through a season where those guys were pretty definitively underplayed to no real end, and again, ended in a veteran team being completely gassed and injured come playoff time.
If you’re part of the crew here with the mindset that CMM and any of our other previously semi-ready AHL’ers or prospects MUST be seeing significant ice time this season without clearly earning the job in camp, you kinda are.

All I want is for these young guys to come to camp and take their spots, rather than gifting roster spots to guys not ready to claim them on their own.

If you're willing to gift them ice time, you’re willing to risk the entire season on development. I just can’t get on board with that kind of risk.

This roster will probably be locked in a playoff qualifying battle all season long unless we get some greater than expected surprise individual performances (likely in net or other unexpected individual breakouts), so I don’t believe we can afford to be gifting much ice time.
 
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twabby

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If you’re part of the crew here with the mindset that CMM and any of our other previously semi-ready AHL’ers or prospects MUST be seeing significant ice time this season without clearly earning the job in camp, you kinda are.

All I want is for these young guys to come to camp and take their spots, rather than gifting roster spots to guys not ready to claim them on their own.

If you're willing to gift them ice time, you’re willing to risk the entire season on development. I just can’t get on board with that kind of risk.

This roster will probably be locked in a playoff qualifying battle all season long unless we get some greater than expected surprise individual performances (likely in net or other unexpected individual breakouts), so I don’t believe we can afford to be gifting much ice time.

I don't think any of us think McMichael doesn't need to earn the job. I just don't think we have the same definitions of "earning" as you might. Or Laviolette might.

I think back to the one Kings game where McMichael and Snively teamed up on a really nice goal early in the game and were generally the best line on the team to start the game. And then they were benched for the rest of the game. The Capitals of course went on and blew a 2-goal lead and lost. Did McMichael earn that benching? Was the team better off for benching him?

That's kind of a microcosm of what we thought went on last year: there was no "earning" a spot in the lineup last year for McMichael. It didn't matter how well he played, or how poorly other regulars were playing. He wasn't part of the plan, so he didn't get a lineup spot. Much like TVR clearly outplayed Fehervary for all of calendar year 2022 but he was never part of the plan to be in the top 4, so he never got that shot.
 
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g00n

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The Caps blowing leads was not due to one decision on the forwards. We've completely cleaned out our goaltending ranks for a reason.

That said the Caps have not been great at "developing" guys by giving them slots in the lineup. It hasn't worked for goaltenders at all (like Sammy) and for skaters I can only think of maybe Wilson, and he put in a lot of work to change and improve his game.

Scoring a goal in a game isn't going to remove everything else that's happened off the ice or during practice or in previous games, or always change a gameplan.
 

g00n

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This from May 2021

1663084489036.png


That applied to last season. He's said over and over they're a veteran team at the core. The youth focus is coming.


1663084569606.png


After losing this year:


1663084688801.png


Here's the actual quote, and it comes in the context of "everything is on the table"


1663084754607.png


So again, we'll see. They seem to have been operating according to their plan. I don't see any significant split between GMBM and Lavi previously.
 

HTFN

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If you’re part of the crew here with the mindset that CMM and any of our other previously semi-ready AHL’ers or prospects MUST be seeing significant ice time this season without clearly earning the job in camp, you kinda are.

All I want is for these young guys to come to camp and take their spots, rather than gifting roster spots to guys not ready to claim them on their own.

If you're willing to gift them ice time, you’re willing to risk the entire season on development. I
just can’t get on board with that kind of risk.

This roster will probably be locked in a playoff qualifying battle all season long unless we get some greater than expected surprise individual performances (likely in net or other unexpected individual breakouts), so I don’t believe we can afford to be gifting much ice time.
You mean like the team just did with a guy who was so bad his most positive impact on the 4th line was to be injured and removed from it? They already do that, just backwards, and they just limped through and "wasted" a season by being so risk averse.

@twabby got this one, the deck is/was/felt stacked against players who were actually earning things they just weren't being given, and that's why I started referencing ice time later in games more specifically. Even when the team needed what their younger players were good at more than it needed anything from a guy like Hagelin, guess who saw a lot of that time?


This from May 2021

View attachment 584261

That applied to last season. He's said over and over they're a veteran team at the core. The youth focus is coming.


View attachment 584262

After losing this year:


View attachment 584263

Here's the actual quote, and it comes in the context of "everything is on the table"


View attachment 584264

So again, we'll see. They seem to have been operating according to their plan. I don't see any significant split between GMBM and Lavi previously.
Uhh.... yeah? Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson, Oshie aren't going anywhere for starters so that's pretty obviously the core.

He also says over and over that they need a youth injection, wants to see McMichael's role expand, and name drops some other young players who should be given a real opportunity instead of treated like camp fodder and then reassigned so Hagelin and Johansson can keep roster spots. Kind of, like... exactly what some of us are saying.

I think I've already said they're not outright adversarial, but I think MacLellan built last year's roster to do a lot of the same thing and then it wasn't utilized that way. If I start hearing Laviolette talking about getting younger, faster, or more aggressive I might change my mind but right now I don't think Lavi cares the same way.
 
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g00n

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You mean like the team just did with a guy who was so bad his most positive impact on the 4th line was to be injured and removed from it? They already do that, just backwards, and they just limped through and "wasted" a season by being so risk averse.

@twabby got this one, the deck is/was/felt stacked against players who were actually earning things they just weren't being given, and that's why I started referencing ice time later in games more specifically. Even when the team needed what their younger players were good at more than it needed anything from a guy like Hagelin, guess who saw a lot of that time?


Uhh.... yeah? Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson, Oshie aren't going anywhere for starters so that's pretty obviously the core.

He also says over and over that they need a youth injection, wants to see McMichael's role expand, and name drops some other young players who should be given a real opportunity instead of treated like camp fodder and then reassigned so Hagelin and Johansson can keep roster spots. Kind of, like... exactly what some of us are saying.

I think I've already said they're not outright adversarial, but I think MacLellan built last year's roster to do a lot of the same thing and then it wasn't utilized that way. If I start hearing Laviolette talking about getting younger, faster, or more aggressive I might change my mind but right now I don't think Lavi cares the same way.

That's not what I posted. He said "youth injection" once, in the context of "nothing is off the table" right after their playoff exit. Then ALSO said it's a "competition" and nobody is going to be handed anything.

Prior to that, before last season, he said we're a 'veteran team' and that seems to be how Lavi treated the roster.

So going into this season he WANTS more youth BUT they have to earn it.

Nothing else to say about this.
 
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CapitalsCupReality

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I don't think any of us think McMichael doesn't need to earn the job. I just don't think we have the same definitions of "earning" as you might. Or Laviolette might.

I think back to the one Kings game where McMichael and Snively teamed up on a really nice goal early in the game and were generally the best line on the team to start the game. And then they were benched for the rest of the game. The Capitals of course went on and blew a 2-goal lead and lost. Did McMichael earn that benching? Was the team better off for benching him?

That's kind of a microcosm of what we thought went on last year: there was no "earning" a spot in the lineup last year for McMichael. It didn't matter how well he played, or how poorly other regulars were playing. He wasn't part of the plan, so he didn't get a lineup spot. Much like TVR clearly outplayed Fehervary for all of calendar year 2022 but he was never part of the plan to be in the top 4, so he never got that shot.
I disagree….it’s not like he was crushing it offensively……he’s rather poor at wing, and noticeably better at C. His finishing was ugly for a gifted offensive scorer (8.5%)…..

it’s also not hard to see TVR is not a top-pair guy to saddle to Carlson.
 
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