Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think Washington can finish ahead of the Rangers if Shesterkin returns to Earth a little bit. Their underlying play isn’t very strong and they didn’t do anything this offseason to really improve themselves. Perhaps their young players like Lafreniere and Kakko take big steps, but for now their skaters in aggregate aren’t all that impressive.

I think Washington is in a good position to get the #2 seed in the Metro. It’ll depend on how much their old players decline, how much McMichael and especially Fehervary improve, and whether they can stay relatively healthy. They should be a very stingy team defensively and if they can get their PP back to top 10 territory there’s no reason they can’t finish above NYR/PIT.

Was going to say all of this. The Rangers were straight up bad in all of their underlying metrics save for their PP and Shesterkin. Kreider had a once in a lifetime season. The only time they weren’t terrible was after the TDL when they smartly acquired more depth but all of that depth is gone. I think Trochek is highly overrated and not an upgrade on Strome.

They have a lot of young guys with pedigrees that could take the next step and if they do they’ll be better but I’m shorting their stock at the moment. Of course, Shesterkin could establish himself as the best goalie in the world this year and their poor team play could mean nothing but we’ll see.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Re. the Rags ... in general, younger guys are more likely to take a step forward, but keep in mind any of them could also slip back. There's no guarantee of continual improvement. (Obviously, this also applies to the Caps' young'uns.) And as ABro points out, Kreider's 21-22 performance was likely an outlier. Rags could end up in any of the top 4 or 5 spots in the Metro.
As far as the Caps go, the timing of Backstrom's return to playing, if ever, will affect when the Caps can move to improve their forward corps. After camp, getting some time to see whether and how the roster gels will help them to identify primary needs, but if Nicky is ever cleared to play, the team will have limited options to fill any holes, unless they move salary out to balance whatever is coming in.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If Nick comes back during the regular season, they will HAVE to move salary out or to the LTIR. They are well over the cap, if not.

 

[crazy8888]

If Nick comes back during the regular season, they will HAVE to move salary out or to the LTIR. They are well over the cap, if not.

Who are they going to move to make up all that cap space? They are $6M+ over at this moment.
If the team is in playoff position then it makes no sense to bring Backstrom back before the season ends.
If healthy enough then brining him back for the playoffs seems like the best possible option to me.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Who are they going to move to make up all that cap space? They are $6M+ over at this moment.
If the team is in playoff position then it makes no sense to bring Backstrom back before the season ends.
If healthy enough then brining him back for the playoffs seems like the best possible option to me.

They can’t keep him on LTIR *IF* he’s healthy. So that’s the rub. Gotta let it play out.

Would probably be Eller and someone else

 

[Cappy76]

They can’t keep him on LTIR *IF* he’s healthy. So that’s the rub. Gotta let it play out.

Would probably be Eller and someone else

Eller and Hagelin just about covers it no?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Eller and Hagelin just about covers it no?

Looks like it would, if I am doing my math right on Cap Friendly.

Which means IF Backstrom doesn’t come back, and they keep Eller and Hagelin, they have around 3m left to spend (assuming Wilson does return).

If Hagelin isn’t counted (for whatever reasons), then they have almost 6m to spend.

They are in decent shape

 

[crazy8888]

They can’t keep him on LTIR *IF* he’s healthy. So that’s the rub. Gotta let it play out.

Would probably be Eller and someone else

He just had a major surgery that ended a lot of players careers or at least greatly contributed to their demise. I think that gives the Caps some leeway on deciding when he comes back. And its not like having players miss entire season and then be perfectly healthy by the time playoffs roll around in unprecedented. The playbook has already been written by other teams.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

According to the CBA (50.10(d)), the League may challenge a player's remaining on LTIR (click to see bolded):

(d) Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception to the Upper Limit. In the
event that a Player on a Club becomes unfit to play (i.e., is injured, ill or disabled and unable to
perform his duties as a hockey Player) such that the Club's physician believes, in his or her
opinion, that the Player, owing to either an injury or an illness, will be unfit to play for at least (i)
twenty-four (24) calendar days and (ii) ten (10) NHL Regular Season games, and such Club
desires to replace such Player, the Club may add an additional Player or Players to its Active
Roster, and the replacement Player Salary and Bonuses of such additional Player(s) may increase
the Club's Averaged Club Salary to an amount up to and exceeding the Upper Limit, solely as,
and to the extent and for the duration, set forth below. If, however, the League wishes to
challenge the determination of a Club physician that a Player is unfit to play for purposes of the Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception, the League and the NHLPA shall promptly
confer and jointly select a neutral physician, who shall review the Club physician's determination regarding the Player's fitness to play.

afaik, "the League" has never challenged a player's continuation on LTIR. If it's happened, it's been done behind the scenes. There seems to have been a collective nod and wink to the shenanigans carried out by a handful of clubs. Bettman works for the owners, and he ("the League") wouldn't challenge unless a sizeable majority (3/4?) of the owners were behind such a move. imo some teams' behaviors will become ever more egregious until the owners recognize the see no evil approach is not good for the game.

In Nick's case, then, since the surgery is usually a career-ending event, it's quite likely he can stay on LTIR all season w/o any challenges. If he miraculously reaches NHL-level conditioning at some point in his recovery - ideally after the RS - he can return for the loffs or the following season.

 

[Corby78]

I think it would be pretty bad form to happily hand the cup to TB and then give another team a hard time about how they handle the LTIR. If they are concerned about how teams bend the rules, now would be the time for them to reset the boundaries.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I think it would be pretty bad form to happily hand the cup to TB and then give another team a hard time about how they handle the LTIR. If they are concerned about how teams bend the rules, now would be the time for them to reset the boundaries.

Not gonna source it now, but GMs reportedly discussed the issue at their mtg in late March, apparently deciding to "study" it. A restatement/clarification of the intent of the rule would be helpful. It wouldn't be good for any team to assume the league is taking a laissez-faire attitude and then get hit with a neutral physician's review. Maybe the GMs will come up with a substantive recommendation at their next mtg.

edit: At least Vegas didn't even make the playoffs after their machinations last season.

 

[um]

They can’t keep him on LTIR *IF* he’s healthy. So that’s the rub. Gotta let it play out.

Would probably be Eller and someone else

He can be hurt all year and miraculously back for game 1 of the playoffs.

Worked for Kucherov and Kane

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[g00n]

NYR be like:

 

[Langway]

Yost: Grading every NHL team's centre depth | TSN

Travis Yost's multi-series talent tiers feature continues this week, with a focus on the centre position. If you missed the opening week, we took a swing at grading the left wing and right wing positions.

www.tsn.ca

The Caps deemed to have bottom five center depth with Backstrom out. You can quibble with a few spots probably but they're in that fourth tier anyway. They'll be able to strategically mix-and-match between their various options if need be but it's hard to say just how much they can get out of Eller & Dowd if they shift to something more risk-averse. Dowd has been a 14 minute a night guy...how much more can he handle? Eller has been at career-high TOI levels the past four seasons. Is he still capable of it to the extent needed (or more)?

Strome is the big bet with CMM/Lapierre as insurance so it's not dire but it is a position that hasn't firmly been resolved. That was intentional to allow room for Backstrom to try to return but it's hard to say that they didn't have options if they really wanted them. Instead they split the room to allow for adding Brown and can revisit. It maintains flexibility down the line but could come at a price for the time being. Overall forward balance and structuring will be interesting to follow in the coming years. Beyond younger legs there's also a tenacity that will be needed.

As-is they have 11 players that can be UFAs next summer (incl. Hagelin) and haven't done any work on extensions to this point. It could be a very different roster a year from now depending on how things play out.

 

[twabby]

Yost: Grading every NHL team's centre depth | TSN

Travis Yost's multi-series talent tiers feature continues this week, with a focus on the centre position. If you missed the opening week, we took a swing at grading the left wing and right wing positions.

www.tsn.ca

The Caps deemed to have bottom five center depth with Backstrom out. You can quibble with a few spots probably but they're in that fourth tier anyway. They'll be able to strategically mix-and-match between their various options if need be but it's hard to say just how much they can get out of Eller & Dowd if they shift to something more risk-averse. Dowd has been a 14 minute a night guy...how much more can he handle? Eller has been at career-high TOI levels the past four seasons. Is he still capable of it to the extent needed (or more)?

Strome is the big bet with CMM/Lapierre as insurance so it's not dire but it is a position that hasn't firmly been resolved. That was intentional to allow room for Backstrom to try to return but it's hard to say that they didn't have options if they really wanted them. Instead they split the room to allow for adding Brown and can revisit. It maintains flexibility down the line but could come at a price for the time being. Overall forward balance and structuring will be interesting to follow in the coming years. Beyond younger legs there's also a tenacity that will be needed.

As-is they have 11 players that can be UFAs next summer (incl. Hagelin) and haven't done any work on extensions to this point. It could be a very different roster a year from now depending on how things play out.

Their center depth is poor mediocre and has been for a few years, but one would think they’d improve this year. The 2C position was a huge void last year between a clearly limited Backstrom and the grab-bag of other options they tried there (rookie McMichael, Eller, Lapierre?). Say what you will about Strome’s skating but his numbers suggest a pretty good 2C. One would also think Eller would have a good year given it’s a contract year for him. And I still think McMichael has the profile of a solid middle six center this year.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Their center depth is still poor and has been for a few years, but one would think they’d improve this year. The 2C position was a huge void last year between a clearly limited Backstrom and the grab-bag of other options they tried there (rookie McMichael, Eller, Lapierre?). Say what you will about Strome’s skating but his numbers suggest a pretty good 2C. One would also think Eller would have a good year given it’s a contract year for him.

It’s a lazy analysis. It’s pretty much, Backstrom is out and therefore they’re worse. Are they worse than Backstrom of old? Yes, but he hasn’t been that player in quite some time. Are they better down the center this year than they were with Nick of last year? Also yes. Nick was a liability last year and even Strome, who is not known for his speed, will improve their mobility down the middle. Kuznetsov-Strome-Eller-Dowd isn’t elite but it’s not bottom fix or six either. I’d like it more with McMichael in place of Eller in terms of team speed and creativity but it’s serviceable.

Side note: could totally see BMac being enamored with acquiring Toews at the deadline if Eller continues his downward trend and they don’t want to stick McMichael in the 3C hole full-time.

 

[Langway]

I think it's pretty fair, mostly because we don't know what we're going to get from Strome & Eller. McMichael could be a wildcard but it's hard to say how readily Lavi would opt for him. They could use Eller on the wing and more situationally at center late in games but that also requires a minimally effective Eller. Mainly for a Laviolette team Strome doesn't strike me as a great fit. It could be a savvy buy-low and near-term answer eventually but it's not a lock. It's going to require an all-around engagement he's yet to display as an NHLer. This will be his moment to prove he's a dependable top six center on a competitive team. He'll have just about as much support as he can hope to keep it simple and effective. But we'll see if he's got that in him. The offensive skill level is there but the rest is pretty crucial.

Edit: Generously, ARI/CHI have not been great situations for players to develop lately. There's a chance in this situation he could develop some of the intangibles needed to be a more generally reliable player. But it is something of a leap to conclude 2C is now answered for. You'd think they should be able to mix-and-match but I'd be a lot more confident if Eller were coming off of a better season. As insurance I don't know what he'll offer.

 

[Hivemind]

I still think they're looking for a trade partner for Eller. But nobody is really looking to take on salary right now (as is evident with NYI's acquisition of Kadri being on indefinite hold until they dump salary). But with Strome having a matching $3.5M cap hit and the removal of $3.5M from their roster putting them squarely back in the "LTIR Hagelin and dump one player to Hershey and then Backstrom can return" salary cap bracket, I think that's the org's plan.

If some other team's center gets hurt during training camp or pre-season, look for Eller to maybe be moved then

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Yost: Grading every NHL team's centre depth | TSN

Travis Yost's multi-series talent tiers feature continues this week, with a focus on the centre position. If you missed the opening week, we took a swing at grading the left wing and right wing positions.

www.tsn.ca

The Caps deemed to have bottom five center depth with Backstrom out. You can quibble with a few spots probably but they're in that fourth tier anyway. They'll be able to strategically mix-and-match between their various options if need be but it's hard to say just how much they can get out of Eller & Dowd if they shift to something more risk-averse. Dowd has been a 14 minute a night guy...how much more can he handle? Eller has been at career-high TOI levels the past four seasons. Is he still capable of it to the extent needed (or more)?

Strome is the big bet with CMM/Lapierre as insurance so it's not dire but it is a position that hasn't firmly been resolved. That was intentional to allow room for Backstrom to try to return but it's hard to say that they didn't have options if they really wanted them. Instead they split the room to allow for adding Brown and can revisit. It maintains flexibility down the line but could come at a price for the time being. Overall forward balance and structuring will be interesting to follow in the coming years. Beyond younger legs there's also a tenacity that will be needed.

As-is they have 11 players that can be UFAs next summer (incl. Hagelin) and haven't done any work on extensions to this point. It could be a very different roster a year from now depending on how things play out.

How can you be certain none of the impending FAs (e.g., Orlov) haven’t been approached with an extension offer or at least initial discussions of parameters?

 

[twabby]

Projected fewest hits+hits taken/60:

You love to see it folks!

(from JFresh on Twitter)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Tough as a wet noodle! Lol….

 

[Hivemind]

ex-Penguin Phil Kessel is still a UFA? Nobody tell GMBM

 

[Langway]

How can you be certain none of the impending FAs (e.g., Orlov) haven’t been approached with an extension offer or at least initial discussions of parameters?

Nothing has been finalized anyway. Based on MacLellan's earlier off-season statements it seems possible they may wait. Orlov should be in the boat of earning an earlier extension but it depends on the numbers.

I'm not sure they'll be looking to trade Eller, at least not prior to training camp. He's still useful competition and there isn't much in the rental center market to dip back into beyond Miller & Toews. It's arguable that even an older, declining Eller could be just as good as any other likely available rental center. It's that thin and I'm not sure Lavi will want to have to use CMM/Lapierre. While it's intriguing to think about Strome+CMM as middle six centers there's the issue of overall center roles and having enough defensively between the four. Kuznetsov not being a defensive maestro makes it that much harder to run something more stacked the other way in the middle six. There still needs to be more of a blend so there's a role for Eller if he can find his game again. Unless there's a hockey trade I'd guess he'll at least get the chance in camp to compete. They don't need to rush much of anything and as insurance it could be worse.