hockeykicker
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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition
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twabby
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- Mar 9, 2010
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Here are Orlov and Jensen's cards.
As mentioned earlier Orlov is easily the team's most important neutral zone player. Fantastic at both zone entries and zone exits, and a pretty good creator of offense despite not individually having a ton of chances himself. The microstats about his entry denials also kind of line up with how we see him: he's aggressive at his own blue line defending the rush, though sometimes this allows him to get beat and allow chances against.
Jensen is also a good neutral zone player. He less often carries the puck into the offensive zone himself, though he does carry it out of the defensive zone quite a bit. He's quite a bit different than Orlov defending his own blue line: he doesn't allow a lot of scoring chances against, though perhaps at the cost of letting the opposition gain the zone more often.
twabby
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Connor McMichael was also someone I was interested in because while the counting numbers weren't great last year all of the advanced metrics including all-in-one numbers like WAR indicate a player with a bright future.
The microstats again align with how he is seen: he's a shoot-first player in the offensive zone who is also pretty effective in the neutral zone. You'd like to see a bit more playmaking ability, but perhaps that will come especially if he plays with better teammates. It's clear to me that if he works on his shot this offseason he'll be a much more prolific scorer. But as is, for an age 20-21 rookie to come in and be moved all around the lineup with little chance to get a rhythm and still put up these numbers is encouraging. He's earned a spot next year IMO. These numbers will likely only improve with more ice time given his age.
CapitalsCupReality
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It's a lot more than just his shot. He needs to be able to get that shot off, to skate better, to physically be able to absorb contact to get in position and get the shot off, etc...
twabby
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His skating seems largely fine, according to my friend who watches the games (I don’t since 7:08pm is way past my bedtime).
As far as his shot goes: sure, he could probably stand to get a little stronger and have a quicker release but those seem like things that can improve quite easily compared to other skills, especially at his age. He’s got the hockey sense and he knows how to get to dangerous areas which seem like much more difficult things to improve on.
If he can do a little better picking his spots I expect a lot more of those blue dots to turn red next year. And given his shot was one of his strengths as a prospect, I’d expect a lot more red this year.
CapitalsCupReality
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His skating needs to be more than “fine”…..he’s passable right now IMO, it‘s not a strength or advantage for him.
IMO, his physical toolbox/skill set needs a lot more work than his shot.
twabby
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It probably needs to be better than fine in order for him to try to enter elite status, but in terms of being a good top 6 contributor his skating is already at an acceptable level.
I think in general the pendulum has swung from not valuing skating enough to valuing skating too much when it comes to judging NHL players. There needs to be some baseline ability of course, but I feel like people get a little too focused on how a player skates without considering the results they put up. It's like the new version of the "you can't teach size" ethos of the early to mid 2000s.
Dylan Strome is another example of a guy whose skating is criticized but it just doesn't seem to matter much in terms of his overall impact.
Style vs. substance is the theme of this offseason, apparently.
I can see Orlov-Jensen being the first pairing and utilizing Carlson-Fever in a very strict offensive way. Especially Carlson
CapitalsCupReality
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When you’re a big rig, you tick other boxes….CMM doesn’t physically do that, so yes, he’s probably ok, but IMO, about the minimum in terms of a viable top/middle-6 guy in the skating category. I’d rather see him improve like Wilson did to give him more explosiveness….
Yes! Give Jensen-Orlov first pair minutes and dee zone face offs. Give JC74 his PP minutes but still keep him closer to 20 rather than 25 per game. Problem is they generally try to have JC74 out there with OV. That is why he logs so many minutes.
I remember McMichael being pegged as a finisher when he was in the OHL, its weird that he turned out to be our 2nd worst finisher after Hagelin. Edit: In his first season that is.
I'm not sure he has the skill of a Burakovsky/Vrana but he generally sees the game well and usually makes the right decision... Its too bad he'll be spending another year at wing where he sucked.
I'm not sure he has the skill of a Burakovsky/Vrana but he generally sees the game well and usually makes the right decision... Its too bad he'll be spending another year at wing where he sucked.
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I was reading that Winnipeg may want to move Dillon to make space for younger D. He’s making $3.9M per year for the next two years. Any interest in taking him back? He’d be expensive as a 3LD but he’d add some lineup versatility and some toughness. He and TvR would be a great third pair. Swap him for Eller and I could be intrigued. Or maybe it’s a better option to explore closer toward the deadline if LuJo/Gustafsson struggle and BMac wants a veteran on the third pair.
Serial_Derecho
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you're right, I worded that poorly. I just meant in his first year.
Rookies in general don't do much in there first year. Only Ovie, Carlson and Backstrom did anything significant in their rookie years on the Caps.
Ovechkins Wodka
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CMM finishing im hoping is just bad luck. He looked alot better then his stats alot of nights. Once his stats reflect his play on the ice it should all even out.
I think we just finished suffering through one $4m 3rd pair defenseman. Let's not immediately replace him with another. If Caps are spending resources on a defenseman, I think it should be someone capable of playing opposite Carlson. We have confirmed that Dillon is not that guy in a very definitive and painful way.
Langway
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Judging by the UFA center options aside from Miller & Toews they should hold on to Eller for the time being. Presumably DET won't be moving Larkin so the next most likely rental option becomes, uh, Pius Suter & Sundqvist. Pretty grim. If they're patient and don't end up needing to keep Eller for at least a PK/late game defensive role they may be able to get relatively strong value for him if the martket remains thin. Non-rentals may become available from tanking teams looking to load up on '23 picks but there's no hurry. They've got plenty of time to let the C/LD battles play out. Same with the roster bubble, where maybe they can get a mid-to-late pick for whoever doesn't make it toward the end of camp.
At this stage they should keep standards high only adding very high impact targets rather than middling pieces. They need breakthrough ability if they're to add further. Doing so for more subtle stylistic reasons or something is probably not worth it.
At this stage they should keep standards high only adding very high impact targets rather than middling pieces. They need breakthrough ability if they're to add further. Doing so for more subtle stylistic reasons or something is probably not worth it.
Langway
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NHL offseason improvement rankings: From No. 1 Detroit to Florida at No. 32
Here’s how much each team has changed this offseason, from most value added to most value subtracted.
theathletic.com
The Caps had the third-best off-season according to Dom's model behind DET/SEA with every other playoff team in the East worse. Not too shabby. Not sure I buy some of his modeling (like Gustafsson being a projected $3.5M value player) but the gist seems close. It should help make for a pretty wide open East. As his disclaimer notes it doesn't factor in internal growth/decline or other factors like coaching. A younger team like NYR may not in effect be any worse ultimately, though some regression is likely due. While an older team like the Caps certainly could fall off in other areas.
Still, adding Kuemper shouldn't be slept on. Again, I wonder more about the D regressing and whether Kuznetsov can be dominant enough a 200 ft. player to the point they'll need him to be. Will they add more cheat in their game if they can get away with it due to better goaltending? And could that neutralize more balance? They're going to have to be pretty disciplined to battle for a top 2-3 seed. The potential is there but certainly at least at the center position you wonder if they've got the chops.
Yeah I mean that’s fair but Dillon would provide more value than Schultz I think. Schultz had value as a PP QB but he really wasn’t used in that role here. Dillon PKs and could play any of the three left spots. If Fever or Orlov go down I’d rather have Dillon play up instead of relying on two of Gustafsson, LuJo and AA.
The Caps are everyone’s pick to drop out of a playoff spot in the East but I think they’re a better team than they were last year, especially so if Wilson comes back and can do Wilson things. They’re better without last year’s version of Backstrom. They don’t wow you with the overwhelming high-end offensive talent they used to have but Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Wilson, Strome, Mantha, Brown, Oshie, McMichael, Eller, Sheary, Dowd, Hathaway, and MoJo is a pretty deep group that seemingly will be tough to play against. A concern for me is that Strome and Eller are probably one of the slowest 2C/3C pairs in the league which is why McMichael is attractive in the 3C hole but it’s a solid group, or it should be, when everyone is healthy.NHL offseason improvement rankings: From No. 1 Detroit to Florida at No. 32
Here’s how much each team has changed this offseason, from most value added to most value subtracted.
The Caps had the third-best off-season according to Dom's model behind DET/SEA with every other playoff team in the East worse. Not too shabby. Not sure I buy some of his modeling (like Gustafsson being a projected $3.5M value player) but the gist seems close. It should help make for a pretty wide open East. As his disclaimer notes it doesn't factor in internal growth/decline or other factors like coaching. A younger team like NYR may not in effect be any worse ultimately, though some regression is likely due. While an older team like the Caps certainly could fall off in other areas.
Still, adding Kuemper shouldn't be slept on. Again, I wonder more about the D regressing and whether Kuznetsov can be dominant enough a 200 ft. player to the point they'll need him to be. Will they add more cheat in their game if they can get away with it due to better goaltending? And could that neutralize more balance? They're going to have to be pretty disciplined to battle for a top 2-3 seed. The potential is there but certainly at least at the center position you wonder if they've got the chops.
RedRocking
Registered User
I think Mantha, especially with Wilson missing time, really needs to step up and become a more dominant player on a nightly basis. I hope he’s having a good offseason, as I’d like to see less “passenger” coasting and more aggressiveness in his game.
As long as he gets solid, consistent linemates, including a playmaking center (e.g., Strome), there’s no excuses for him not to live up to his potential. The team really needs depth scoring - it’s all set up for him to really breakout and succeed. Let’s go big fella!
Langway
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So much hinges on coaching and leadership. On paper it's enough to vie for at least the 3 spot in the division after CAR/NYR so long as they're relatively healthy. But they're not so naturally dominant to slack off for vast stretches and merely rely on their skill. It's still not an overly dynamic team and I'm not sure how they manage to upgrade that in the near-term. The trade deadline could help position them better but the bigger picture remains pretty similar offensively. They had a pretty solid draft and made prudent moves but I have to think there's more left to better position the skaters at some point. There are some new faces but hard to believe they've added enough to be a real contender.
Strome is a worthwhile gamble but he was in an ideal scenario in Chicago with two of the more dynamic producers you'll find playing wide open pond hockey most nights. It was a ripe opportunity to sponge points. He hung with them but I'd still be surprised if he cements the 2C spot...even just offensively. Can he produce playing more of a balanced, albeit probably slower, game? Does he have the power and hunger to play more of a two-way checking style? He flashes some good mits in tight but it's hard to say if he's up for that. He's got the skill level but there's a lot more to it. They could put him with Mantha & Brown to insulate him defensively but I don't know how well I'd expect that line to produce on paper. Everything has to stem from collective support and buy-in to put them on solid ground.
Strome is a worthwhile gamble but he was in an ideal scenario in Chicago with two of the more dynamic producers you'll find playing wide open pond hockey most nights. It was a ripe opportunity to sponge points. He hung with them but I'd still be surprised if he cements the 2C spot...even just offensively. Can he produce playing more of a balanced, albeit probably slower, game? Does he have the power and hunger to play more of a two-way checking style? He flashes some good mits in tight but it's hard to say if he's up for that. He's got the skill level but there's a lot more to it. They could put him with Mantha & Brown to insulate him defensively but I don't know how well I'd expect that line to produce on paper. Everything has to stem from collective support and buy-in to put them on solid ground.
I think they kind of have to. And that's a pretty nice second line if they can find chemistry.
twabby
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I think Washington can finish ahead of the Rangers if Shesterkin returns to Earth a little bit. Their underlying play isn’t very strong and they didn’t do anything this offseason to really improve themselves. Perhaps their young players like Lafreniere and Kakko take big steps, but for now their skaters in aggregate aren’t all that impressive.
I think Washington is in a good position to get the #2 seed in the Metro. It’ll depend on how much their old players decline, how much McMichael and especially Fehervary improve, and whether they can stay relatively healthy. They should be a very stingy team defensively and if they can get their PP back to top 10 territory there’s no reason they can’t finish above NYR/PIT.
I think Washington is in a good position to get the #2 seed in the Metro. It’ll depend on how much their old players decline, how much McMichael and especially Fehervary improve, and whether they can stay relatively healthy. They should be a very stingy team defensively and if they can get their PP back to top 10 territory there’s no reason they can’t finish above NYR/PIT.
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