Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[YippieKaey]

How defencemen transitioned the puck out of their zone in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Dimitri Filipovic uses tracking data from this year's playoffs to look at which defencemen transition the puck out of their own zone most effectively, and why it's such an important skill in today's game.

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Dmitry Orlov is still really good.

Also another encouraging datapoint for Fehervary as well.

I’d still love to see Fehervary’s regular season numbers. I’d be more encouraged if he showed legitimate improvement in the postseason because it could indicate he turned a corner. But if these numbers were similar to his regular season numbers then it’d be a little more discouraging to me because it would either show these microstats don’t really matter, or that he was so bad in other parts of the game that these good exit numbers just didn’t matter.

I see it like he has things he's good at, which are a great base. If he improves the things he's bad at which he likely will given his age, he can be real good. Also, going from the AHL to an 82 game NHL season might make you look bad in the playoffs right?

 

[DWGie26]

lavi as the whipping boy… gonna happen for sure!

I don’t consider myself a management / coaching apologist but i have been more pro on both than many.

We have 4 years of OV under contract. i don’t want to mess with a new coach or gambling on a young new coach who needs two years to figure it out while running out the clock on the OV era. So I’d like to sign Lavi to a 2-year extension now so we maintain consistency. I just don’t think you find a replacement who can be more impactful. For the fancy stat crew, his GAR or xGAR is definitely a positive value.

 

[Roshi]

lavi as the whipping boy… gonna happen for sure!

I don’t consider myself a management / coaching apologist but i have been more pro on both than many.

We have 4 years of OV under contract. i don’t want to mess with a new coach or gambling on a young new coach who needs two years to figure it out while running out the clock on the OV era. So I’d like to sign Lavi to a 2-year extension now so we maintain consistency. I just don’t think you find a replacement who can be more impactful. For the fancy stat crew, his GAR or xGAR is definitely a positive value.

Consistency is widely underrated nowadays. Lavi’s been here for two years and we have had no troubles getting to playoffs. Give the group chance and they might find a way through the poffs aswell. I dont think its that fair to base the success rate over two lost series.

If we miss the playoffs though, thats when the trust is gone. The goal for this team must be ”make it to playoffs and anything can happen”.

 

[YippieKaey]

I think there's weird expectations clouding peoples judgment regarding the coaching staff.

The Caps are the second oldest team in the league, very much on the decline. A lot of injury trouble and less stamina is connected to that and even though Oshie was great in last years playoffs he and other core players are usually battling injuries.

The prospect pool is not fantastic, and there is no real regrowth in the org charts right now.

So the Caps making the playoffs at this point in their career should be seen as an accomplishment, both by the players and the coaching staff.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I think there's weird expectations clouding peoples judgment regarding the coaching staff.

The Caps are the second oldest team in the league, very much on the decline. A lot of injury trouble and less stamina is connected to that and even though Oshie was great in last years playoffs he and other core players are usually battling injuries.

The prospect pool is not fantastic, and there is no real regrowth in the org charts right now.

So the Caps making the playoffs at this point in their career should be seen as an accomplishment, both by the players and the coaching staff.

Doesn’t that say something about management?

 

[YippieKaey]

Doesn’t that say something about management?

Yeah you could say that. But i also get why they´re not trading guys like Ovi, Bäckström, Oshie, Carlson etc. That's a bad look for trying to aquire other players, kind of like the talk about the Golden Knights is now.

And also of course, if rejuvenating an NHL team and always being relevant was a 100% of the time possibility, every team would do it 100% of the time. The reality of this league is unfortunately that teams go up & down. I also believe that there needs to be a lot of retooling/rebuilding but i don't have to live with the consequences of doing so.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

It’s weird that people are criticizing Lavi after the playoffs. They had pretty much a perfect game plan and if his players just executed it’s highly probable they win in five or six games. The Panthers didn’t score a single PPG. Barkov and Huberdeau were complete non factors. The Caps had the lead in five of the six games and the one they didn’t (G2) they dominated the first period and hit two posts. Not his fault Hathaway missed an open net in G4 or that Oshie, Carlson, and Orlov made completely brain dead decisions that no veteran should ever make which led to easy goals against in the G5 collapse. Not his fault Ovechkin got hurt and was largely ineffective or that his goalies could never make a save when they needed it.

A coach’s job is to put his players in a position to win and to put the best players on the ice. You could maybe complain about some of his lineup choices but by and large they were well structured, prepared, and in position to win and that they didn’t was almost entirely on the playoffs.

 

[g00n]

They lost because Sammy and Carlson (and Eller to a degree) got worse as the series went on while Giroux and Verhaeghe went nuts.

Verhaeghe had the series of his life then ghosted vs TB.

 

[Hivemind]

After two consecutive first round exits, GMBM said this about Todd Reirden, “We have higher expectations for our team, and we felt a fresh approach in leadership was necessary."

So I don't think it's particularly unusual that people are critical of Laviolette after he followed up TR's two first round exits with two more first round exits. I very much like Lavi as an on-ice tactician, and supported his hiring in DC. I even wanted him in the off-season we hired Trotz. It just hasn't worked out here.

(And this isn't even getting into Lavi's handling of the youth on the roster, Lavi's historical tendency to produce his best results early-on in a tenure with a team and thus his short shelf life, or the team's regular season regression under Laviolette)

 

[g00n]

After two consecutive first round exits, GMBM said this about Todd Reirden, “We have higher expectations for our team, and we felt a fresh approach in leadership was necessary."

So I don't think it's particularly unusual that people are critical of Laviolette after he followed up TR's two first round exits with two more first round exits. I very much like Lavi as an on-ice tactician, and supported his hiring in DC. I even wanted him in the off-season we hired Trotz. It just hasn't worked out here.

(And this isn't even getting into Lavi's handling of the youth on the roster, Lavi's historical tendency to produce his best results early-on in a tenure with a team and thus his short shelf life, or the team's regular season regression under Laviolette)

Yeah GMs never say stock shit like that. We should totally read into that statement and infer Lavi is the same coach as TR.

/eyeroll

Caps after a full season/pre-season of Lavi looked a lot better vs the 1 seed Panthers than they have vs any team in the playoffs since 2018 or 2019.

If they miss the playoffs this year or bow out in RD1 then Lavi will probably get the boot. He won't be on the hot seat unless they're out of a playoff spot by Xmas.

 

[RedRocking]

Doesn’t that say something about management?

It does. But mostly just indicates that they’ve prioritized 895, and maintaining the core of the Cup team to keep people in their seats.

And as long as they are a viable playoff team, they’re probably fine with things - hoping for an actual series win, and our “puncher’s chance” too, of course.

I like Lavi as a coach, and I think he’s been fine here. Not all first round exits are the same. Plus, we aren’t the Cowboys, who haven’t won anything in 30 years.

I think the news on Backstrom (and whether the team is competitive this year) will go a long way in deciding if a true rebuild will start happening. If that ends up being the direction management wants to go in 23-24 (e.g., slotting in CMM/Hendrix/Protas) then Lavi probably isn’t the right guy for that.

If we try to maintain a competitive playoff team, and can use all of Backstrom’s cap hit to make the team dramatically younger and better, then I’d be fine with extending Lavi.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Lavi hasn't had a top tier roster since he came to DC, unlike TR who inherited a younger team fresh off the Cup win. And we haven't seen Lavi clearly out coached, imo.

I don't think he's the guy to lead a youth movement if/when they go that direction, but he's probably as good as it's going to get with a vet group like this.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Doesn’t that say something about management?

What do you expect, when they haven’t had a top 10 draft pick in forever, and usually draft in the 20’s?

Add to it that they have been in “win now” mode for 15 yrs and shed futures every TDL and this is what happens.

I honestly have no idea what ppl expect here.

 

[Hivemind]

Lavi's Capitals have won three games in the playoffs in his two years combined. Running vets into the ground isn't the best way to utilize the roster the Capitals already had in place. There are already pieces in place to help balance out and augment this veteran group, but the coach is refusing to use them. Benching TvR for Schultz and Chara isn't maximizing the roster. Feeding John Carlson nearly 26 minutes of ice time per night while he's getting dominated by Taylor Hall shift-after-shift isn't a smart hockey decision. Feeding your center with an injured hip 18 minutes a night while keeping your promising first round pick limited to less than 7 minutes against a team with suspect defensive depth is not attacking your opponents weaknesses.

I refuse to believe this is "as good as it gets" with these Capitals.

 

[DWGie26]

My opinion on what happened since winning the Cup in 2018
* Reirden is clearly The heir apparent and make him HC
* Caps decide to run it back with mostly the same team
* TR is not a good HC. Loses the room, fans, and we waste two good years with coach who looked good
* Caps make decision to Re-sign older core players and run out the clock on them
* Caps need a known Coach to lead veteran players who need a proven experienced coach to win Cup
* 2 years of awkward Covid times
* Last year in particular very tough because of Cap and gambling on unproven goaltending

So in short, Caps made some gambles/choices on HC and resigning older players. I don’t think they were bad choices, but it hasn’t worked either. But it wasn’t reckless.

This year, we have a refreshed roster but big injury issues to deal with (Hags, Wilson, Backstrom) so not really a complete team based on Salary Cap usage with $12M to 17M on LTIR.

Then next year a lot of contracts are up so we will likely see a lot more roster change depending on how season and playoffs go.

So back to my original point which is I think Lavi still is the best coach for two more years and hence why i think resigning him is a good idea. Last two years of OV (1 for Backstrom and Oshie) is when a true rebuild will start and yes, probably time for a coaching change and hopefully someone who can lead for 5 years. But the core roster is what is is, and its not changing for 3 years So let Lavi try to run for another cup.

 

[Calicaps]

My opinion on what happened since winning the Cup in 2018
* Reirden is clearly The heir apparent and make him HC
* Caps decide to run it back with mostly the same team
* TR is not a good HC. Loses the room, fans, and we waste two good years with coach who looked good
* Caps make decision to Re-sign older core players and run out the clock on them
* Caps need a known Coach to lead veteran players who need a proven experienced coach to win Cup
* 2 years of awkward Covid times
* Last year in particular very tough because of Cap and gambling on unproven goaltending

So in short, Caps made some gambles/choices on HC and resigning older players. I don’t think they were bad choices, but it hasn’t worked either. But it wasn’t reckless.

This year, we have a refreshed roster but big injury issues to deal with (Hags, Wilson, Backstrom) so not really a complete team based on Salary Cap usage with $12M to 17M on LTIR.

Then next year a lot of contracts are up so we will likely see a lot more roster change depending on how season and playoffs go.

So back to my original point which is I think Lavi still is the best coach for two more years and hence why i think resigning him is a good idea. Last two years of OV (1 for Backstrom and Oshie) is when a true rebuild will start and yes, probably time for a coaching change and hopefully someone who can lead for 5 years. But the core roster is what is is, and its not changing for 3 years So let Lavi try to run for another cup.

generally agree, though I think if Oshie and Kempny don't got down to injury when they did, they at least make a decent run in 2019. TR was fine when they had the wind at their back, but once things went wrong, he had no answers.

 

[HTFN]

generally agree, though I think if Oshie and Kempny don't got down to injury when they did, they at least make a decent run in 2019. TR was fine when they had the wind at their back, but once things went wrong, he had no answers.

can underscore all of that by the fact that the response to Kempny going down was Carlson at LD for who the hell knows what reason. almost whenever possible, that man (and frankly Laviolette to some extents) is more willing to mush everything to an ugly middle than maximize anything at his disposal.

Ovechkin seems like the one exception to that rule and frankly that might say even more about him than we realize

 

[twabby]

I went ahead and subscribed to JFresh. Patreon is annoying because I think they bill on the first of every month and don't pro-rate months if you subscribe in the middle of the month. So I waited until today to subscribe.

Anyways, I can post a few player microstat cards if people want. I was mostly interested in Fehervary because of his playoff numbers and the ongoing discussion of him as a player going forward. Here's his season card:

The big stats on the left come as no surprise and line up with Evolving Hockey's WAR model, and the microstats on the right are kind of a mixed bag leaning toward below average in most aspects.

These definitely don't line up with his playoff entry/exit results which were quite good. Hopefully he can improve a lot of the items on the right, which will hopefully lead to the items on the left also improving.

 

[twabby]

I was also interested in John Carlson's card because he and Fehervary spent the most time together this year.

Carlson is excellent in the o-zone (no surprise there) and he did have a pretty good year defensively overall.

But what stands out is that neither he nor Fehervary are any good at entries and exits. Perhaps this can explain their overall crummy possession numbers when together, and why Carlson's numbers were much better while playing with Orlov who is the transition king on the team.

I also wonder if Carlson's lack of transition ability is why he continually struggles in the postseason despite putting up good regular season overall numbers. Perhaps the importance of transitions is magnified in the playoffs and that is why we have seen Carlson shrink while Orlov has been their best D by a mile over the past 4 postseasons.

 

[Langway]

With Carlson a lot revolves around declining endurance and lateral mobility. Some of the injuries have taken a toll. He's past his physical peak and has to pivot to compensating for it mentally with superior preparation. Elite vet D need a very high hockey IQ to anticipate and know when they can and can't slack off during a shift. Pronger was great at that. All of the greats like Lidstrom & Niedermayer were but Carlson's IQ hasn't matured into that territory. If it had he'd have a Norris in his pocket by now. Instead he's mainly a very highly skilled offensive defenseman. He may age pretty poorly if he doesn't take more ownership in those areas as a student of the game. It's a general adjustment this team needs to make as they get older to effectively age more gracefully. In general I think we've just sort of seen the limitations of grinding through it rather than taking a wider perspective in becoming more effectively detailed. As they get older it's not really viable to just operate in survival mode. They're not effectively dominant enough in their raw ability to operate that way and it's also harder on their stamina to play a less predictable style. So, in effect, they probably need to become more structurally boring again if they're going to be effective.

They also need the right complementary pieces capable of doing some of the defensive and general effort dirty work. I don't know that Eller, Johansson and Sheary possess enough of the edge to have it throughout the lineup. Developing centers in Strome/CMM/Lapierre are also unlikely to consistently supply that element. They're still kind of soft and I don't know how they'll managed that. Strome & Gustafsson add nothing in that regard. They can lean into strengths but I don't know if Laviolette is flexible enough to effectively apply it. Given the season Orlov-Jensen put up it was reasonable to keep that pair intact. Given shifting dynamics going into next season they probably should go with Orlov-Carlson & Fehervary-Jensen. They can revert back if need be but Carlson needs the all-around contributing, experienced workhorse alongside him at this stage unless he finds another gear somewhere.

They need more players capable of playing a variety of roles that possess a more diverse skill set. It's why I don't like the Gustafsson signing much because he needs to be managed and is one-dimensional. They might as well just see what Johansen with some time is able to develop into. I'd wager he can pretty easily develop into a more well-rounded player at least. Strome & McMichael likely will require managing as well so the skaters remain pretty limited fundamentally. Goaltending should be better but overall I don't doubt defensive results and underlying defensive play regresses. Brown can help but it's not enough. Unless Laviolette is a miracle worker or goaltending is brilliant I'd expect some defensive issues early on next season at the very least. I guess the question is whether they gel well enough offensively to out-score it. Maybe they do but still hard to believe they won't need further skater improvements to fare better in the playoffs.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

View attachment 573945

I was also interested in John Carlson's card because he and Fehervary spent the most time together this year.

Carlson is excellent in the o-zone (no surprise there) and he did have a pretty good year defensively overall.

But what stands out is that neither he nor Fehervary are any good at entries and exits. Perhaps this can explain their overall crummy possession numbers when together, and why Carlson's numbers were much better while playing with Orlov who is the transition king on the team.

I also wonder if Carlson's lack of transition ability is why he continually struggles in the postseason despite putting up good regular season overall numbers. Perhaps the importance of transitions is magnified in the playoffs and that is why we have seen Carlson shrink while Orlov has been their best D by a mile over the past 4 postseasons.

Good stuff. The latter part about zone exits and entries is not surprising. Carlson has always looked best with guys like Kempny, Schmidt, and Orlov and not guys like Orpik or aging Alzner. I thought he’d be solid with Fever since Fever can skate and still think he can be but we’ll see.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Re. Carlson ... Although I wouldn't put his hockey IQ at a mensa level, I do appreciate his contributions to the Caps' success. His presence on PP1 means that his minutes in that group push up his overall ice time. Fewer overall minutes should improve his readiness and effectiveness. But how does the team reduce his minutes? His greatest value is on offense, so it doesn't make sense to replace him on PP1. There's no a top dman incoming to let him slide down the depth chart. What are the options, if there are any, and will Lavi try any of them?

 

[Langway]

The most viable adjustment is having three balanced D pairs but that paradoxically requires opting for the less experienced option in Johansen and investing in his upside. We'll see if they're willing to make that investment over a more experienced veteran option in Gustafsson. If they manage more balanced TOI in the regular season maybe there's more in the tank when it matters. Ultimately that has to be goal in the coming years: depth and balanced team play compensating for less pure high-end dominance. That requires four lines and three pairs all capable of playing at similar pace with similar effort level. Not easy and probably still not altogether there. Given that they'll start short-handed I'm sure whatever works will be rewarded. They don't play the long game and it's arguably why they struggle organizationally to break through in the playoffs. It requires another level of dedication and fortitude throughout the season re: adherence to process and detail.

You'd think a mobile and fairly strong D like Fehervary would be much better at retrievals at least. Hard to explain that other than that his sheer physicality doesn't extend to a more strategic usage of it with retrievals and that his puck movement/awareness is a big work in progress. His vision and skill level will determine how pronounced a ceiling he may have. Some of the microstats point to questions in those areas. It's why deeming him an offensive-defenseman doesn't quite sit right. I guess it's true but not dynamically so and it's more of a statement of how poor the underlying possession/defense was.

There are a lot of raw tools but his offensive playmaking and transitional IQ limit his effectiveness. We'll see how much he can refine his game further and if it was at least in part a matter of keeping it abundantly simple as a rookie. Count me in in not believing he's a finished product just yet...but it is likely his existing initial strengths will continue to be defining characteristics. It's more a matter of how hard will he work on those weaker areas to streamline and improve efficiency. I don't think there's much of any physical excuse for why he can't be a better possession defenseman. It's on the staff and the player to translate the raw ability into more effective applied technique.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

JC doesn't strike me as much of a teacher (as Orpik), regardless of what the 'A' designation implies. Guys like Fever and LuJo can benefit getting advice and suggestions from experienced vets as much as they can from coaching, and maybe it's a Jensen who can help in that regard. I wouldn't expect much of that from Orlov or JC. But then I'm not on the ice or in the room. Maybe Orlov has something in him that most of us don't see as fans. Or Matt Irwin.

 

[DWGie26]

I’m definitely a bit concerned about this defense. I generally like the signings to create competition, but not really sure how it all fits together. I think you have to run it back with Carlson and Fever and give them time to build chemistry. It was just one year and they were good early in the year. Then Orlov and Jensen were our best defensive pair So need to keep them together. Then you hope one of Carlsson, Gustufson, or Lujo ends up being a strong surprise With TVR on his strong side.

Caps do need to reduce JC74 minutes and the only real way to do that is to anoint Orlov-Jensen as the top pair and give them commensurate minutes Including a lot of defensive zone face offs. Then JC74 plays second pair minutes plus PP1 (and 2) and he’ll still be up over 20 minutes But not 25.