Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

[tenken00]

I agree with this. It's easy enough to scroll past a post you don't care to read. I realize that as a moderator @Calicaps probably can't put me on ignore, but all non-moderators are free to do so if they want as well.

It seems like it's more a way to stifle discussion than anything. If someone says something in here that I disagree with, am I not allowed to use analytics to support my case? Do I have to say "I disagree with you, come to the stat thread to see why!" in order to show my case?

I actually posted that RMNB content to stir up discussion, because I just like reading all kinds of stuff ... but I understand if others aren't so wild about seeing analytics.

How about meeting in the middle and put it in spoiler tags? That shouldn't be too much to do.

Or at least for charts and graphs.

Edit: And curious. Who are the 3 dots even further to the right than Kuzy?

 

[twabby]

Edit: And curious. Who are the 3 dots even further to the right than Kuzy?

Ribeiro 15-16 NSH
Draisaitl 14-15 EDM
Panarin 16-17 CHI (the Quenneville special)

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

In an attempt to try to figure out how to judge Kuznetsov's xGF% based on zone start ratio, I made a scatterplot based on data from Evolving Hockey:

View attachment 408186

This is every player-season from 2014-15 until now, with a minimum of 250 minutes played (since Kuznetsov is just above 250 minutes this year at 5v5, that is why I chose the cutoff at 250).

The x-axis is the zone start ratio. Players further to the left get heavy defensive zone starts, and players on the right get a lot of offensive zone starts.

The y-axis is the xGF%. Higher is better, 50% is average.

Circled in red is Kuznetsov from this season. He is certainly getting a ton of o-zone starts, but based on the rest of the plot doesn't it seem like despite getting these soft starts he's doing well with them? At the very least it seems difficult to make the case that he's doing poorly with these starts.

This is a tough one for me. On one hand, you should not have to shelter a guy with the 4th-highest cap hit at the rate he's been sheltered. He's paid to be one of the best players on the team and I don't know you can win it all if you have to baby him to this extent. He'll be 29 in two months and he's been a professional since he was a teenager... the coach should not have to treat him like he's a rookie being thrust into a broken lineup.

On the other, that's kind of the point of managing a team, right? You are supposed to put guys in the best possible position to succeed and let them take advantage of their situation and it seems like that's whats happening here. Maybe Lavi is trying to bring Kuzy along on training wheels which, again, he shouldn't have to do, but maybe this is his plan and he'll give him harder minutes as he gets up to speed. I'll be interested to see if his usage changes as the season goes on and how Kuzy handles it if so.

I do think one thing is for sure: he doesn't trust 92 and 13 at all defensively, and now you can throw 10 into that mix as well. His second line is a more of a glorified PP unit than an actual two-way line.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

This is a tough one for me. On one hand, you should not have to shelter a guy with the 4th-highest cap hit at the rate he's been sheltered. He's paid to be one of the best players on the team and I don't know you can win it all if you have to baby him to this extent. He'll be 29 in two months and he's been a professional since he was a teenager... the coach should not have to treat him like he's a rookie being thrust into a broken lineup.

On the other, that's kind of the point of managing a team, right? You are supposed to put guys in the best possible position to succeed and let them take advantage of their situation and it seems like that's whats happening here. Maybe Lavi is trying to bring Kuzy along on training wheels which, again, he shouldn't have to do, but maybe this is his plan and he'll give him harder minutes as he gets up to speed. I'll be interested to see if his usage changes as the season goes on and how Kuzy handles it if so.

I do think one thing is for sure: he doesn't trust 92 and 13 at all defensively, and now you can throw 10 into that mix as well. His second line is a more of a glorified PP unit than an actual two-way line.

I have no problem having a 5on 5 PP line (13-92-10) and a 5 on 5 PK line with the 4th. Nice to have a coach that doesnt just roll 4 lines and hope for the best.

 

[twabby]

This is a tough one for me. On one hand, you should not have to shelter a guy with the 4th-highest cap hit at the rate he's been sheltered. He's paid to be one of the best players on the team and I don't know you can win it all if you have to baby him to this extent. He'll be 29 in two months and he's been a professional since he was a teenager... the coach should not have to treat him like he's a rookie being thrust into a broken lineup.

On the other, that's kind of the point of managing a team, right? You are supposed to put guys in the best possible position to succeed and let them take advantage of their situation and it seems like that's whats happening here. Maybe Lavi is trying to bring Kuzy along on training wheels which, again, he shouldn't have to do, but maybe this is his plan and he'll give him harder minutes as he gets up to speed. I'll be interested to see if his usage changes as the season goes on and how Kuzy handles it if so.

I do think one thing is for sure: he doesn't trust 92 and 13 at all defensively, and now you can throw 10 into that mix as well. His second line is a more of a glorified PP unit than an actual two-way line.

But again, Laviolette is sheltering $9.2 million Nicklas Backstrom (28th most generous ZSR out of 278 forwards) , $5.75 million TJ Oshie (6th), and $5.167 million Tom Wilson (29th) to similar effects, though not quite as extreme as Kuznetsov.

Do you really think Laviolette is giving Backstrom, Oshie, and Wilson cushy zone starts because he doesn't trust them defensively? It seems the more likely explanation is that Laviolette has so much trust in the 4th line that he is willing to absolutely bury them with their deployments in order to free up the top 9 with easier starts. (And yes, Kuznetsov certainly gets the easiest of the easy zone starts)

I'm with you in that he probably doesn't trust Kuznetsov and Vrana defensively given their 3rd period usage in games where the Capitals are protecting a lead, but I don't know that this means Kuznetsov has been performing terribly defensively. It just means Laviolette doesn't trust them. I think he should give them a shot personally, especially given the multitude of blown leads while they have been riding the pine.

 

[txpd]

I have no problem having a 5on 5 PP line (13-92-10) and a 5 on 5 PK line with the 4th. Nice to have a coach that doesnt just roll 4 lines and hope for the best.

Who rolled 4 lines and hoped for the best?

 

[DWGie26]

I think Lavi is great at managing lines. That is why you have 4. No issue with how he is deploying. And he clearly isn’t afraid to bench people who don’t meet expectations of THEIR role. Not like that in Youth Hockey where they mostly roll lines but have prescribed PK and PP units.

 

[Calicaps]

Perhaps there should be a thread for those who refuse to read analytics, rather than attempting to stifle legitimate roster discussion? The stat haters can have their own safe space.

I agree with this. It's easy enough to scroll past a post you don't care to read. I realize that as a moderator @Calicaps probably can't put me on ignore, but all non-moderators are free to do so if they want as well.

It seems like it's more a way to stifle discussion than anything. If someone says something in here that I disagree with, am I not allowed to use analytics to support my case? Do I have to say "I disagree with you, come to the stat thread to see why!" in order to show my case?

Can y'all even read?? I specifically said "take it to the stats thread." Wouldn't that seem to suggest that we have one already???

I actually posted that RMNB content to stir up discussion, because I just like reading all kinds of stuff ... but I understand if others aren't so wild about seeing analytics.

How about meeting in the middle and put it in spoiler tags? That shouldn't be too much to do.

Or at least for charts and graphs.

This also was in my post above.

I am not trying to stifle anyone's discussion. We agreed LONG ago that folks who don't want to have to negotiate all this stuff should not have to. It wasn't about me.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Who rolled 4 lines and hoped for the best?

I feel like alot of our coaches in the playoffs got out coached by others who matched lines better. Its been going on a long time here

 

[tenken00]

But again, Laviolette is sheltering $9.2 million Nicklas Backstrom (28th most generous ZSR out of 278 forwards) , $5.75 million TJ Oshie (6th), and $5.167 million Tom Wilson (29th) to similar effects, though not quite as extreme as Kuznetsov.

Do you really think Laviolette is giving Backstrom, Oshie, and Wilson cushy zone starts because he doesn't trust them defensively? It seems the more likely explanation is that Laviolette has so much trust in the 4th line that he is willing to absolutely bury them with their deployments in order to free up the top 9 with easier starts. (And yes, Kuznetsov certainly gets the easiest of the easy zone starts)

I'm with you in that he probably doesn't trust Kuznetsov and Vrana defensively given their 3rd period usage in games where the Capitals are protecting a lead, but I don't know that this means Kuznetsov has been performing terribly defensively. It just means Laviolette doesn't trust them. I think he should give them a shot personally, especially given the multitude of blown leads while they have been riding the pine.

I think Lavi probably went to the 4th line himself and told them that he appreciates what they do, and told them upfront that this is what he sees is the best strategy going forward for the team's overall success for this season. Thanks them for their efforts in knowing the season-long situation that they are in, and gives them considerable more responsibility than what is expected for a 4th line.

And in this, the team has found a balance somewhat.

 

[txpd]

ok, so Kuzy is sheltered. Backstrom Oshie and Wilson are sheltered. Eller's line never plays. Hathawauy and Hagelin suck. Yea, boy

 

[txpd]

I feel like alot of our coaches in the playoffs got out coached by others who matched lines better. Its been going on a long time here

I am not at all sure what you are seeing. Trotz and Reirden matched lines. They both used Backstrom Oshie and Vrana as their matchup line. Trotz did not allow the other coach's desire to match to dictate his other line usage. He felt like the oppo coach could keep throwing out his checking line to keep Ov off the ice and his own first line to force the checking line to come out. He said this publically numerous times.

 

[g00n]

I agree with this. It's easy enough to scroll past a post you don't care to read. I realize that as a moderator @Calicaps probably can't put me on ignore, but all non-moderators are free to do so if they want as well.

It seems like it's more a way to stifle discussion than anything. If someone says something in here that I disagree with, am I not allowed to use analytics to support my case? Do I have to say "I disagree with you, come to the stat thread to see why!" in order to show my case?

Some jerkwad powermad mod addressed this in the OP of the fancy stats thread years ago:

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I am not at all sure what you are seeing. Trotz and Reirden matched lines. They both used Backstrom Oshie and Vrana as their matchup line. Trotz did not allow the other coach's desire to match to dictate his other line usage. He felt like the oppo coach could keep throwing out his checking line to keep Ov off the ice and his own first line to force the checking line to come out. He said this publically numerous times.

I remember Trotz putting out what was left of Alzner and Orpik on a D pairing and we lost a game 7 on their 1st shift. TR got owned by Rod and Trotz. Oates didnt make the playoffs, Hunter had Beagle playing with Ovie...

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

All this sheltering talk is a horse BS. Our team is dominant on the ice. How everyone can have lots of defensive starts if the whole team has like only 25% of def starts? Kuznetsov line is dominant. Slow Backstrom and Ellers lines are awful. That is why the 4th line gets alot of def starts.

By the way, smart people start to recognise that Kuzy has the elite defensive skills. I was saying it for years.

 

[txpd]

I remember Trotz putting out what was left of Alzner and Orpik on a D pairing and we lost a game 7 on their 1st shift. TR got owned by Rod and Trotz. Oates didnt make the playoffs, Hunter had Beagle playing with Ovie...

You didnt remember that right. Niskanen played with Alzner. Niskanen played with Alzner til Alzner broke. Alzner and Orpik were both left d

 

[kicksavedave]

I feel like alot of our coaches in the playoffs got out coached by others who matched lines better. Its been going on a long time here

Yeah I wanna say that was a complaint with BB, Barry and Todd, not matching lines well in the playoffs. Lavi is clearly a fan of strategic deployments. Will be nice to maybe steal a series (or 3) based on using our players in the best possible way, for a change.

 

[kicksavedave]

You didnt remember that right. Niskanen played with Alzner. Niskanen played with Alzner til Alzner broke. Alzner and Orpik were both left d

I think he's remembering playing Alzner who was injured over Schmidt and Alzner costing them.

 

[txpd]

I think he's remembering playing Alzner who was injured over Schmidt and Alzner costing them.

If that were true, it was bringing Orpik into that threw me off

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

When Tom is back we have to sit one of Hathaway, Panik or Sheary. Any guess who gonna take a sit?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think he's remembering playing Alzner who was injured over Schmidt and Alzner costing them.

what game was this i was trying to find the youtube of that play

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

When Tom is back we have to sit one of Hathaway, Panik or Sheary. Any guess who gonna take a sit?

Panik but all 3 are playing hard to keep their jersey

 

[usiel]

Stat nerds having their own thread to deathmatch in seems appropriate.

 

[twabby]

Can y'all even read?? I specifically said "take it to the stats thread." Wouldn't that seem to suggest that we have one already???


This also was in my post above.

I am not trying to stifle anyone's discussion. We agreed LONG ago that folks who don't want to have to negotiate all this stuff should not have to. It wasn't about me.

So again, why isn't there an intangibles thread? Why isn't there an eye-test thread? Why isn't there an appeal to authority thread? Those aren't typically my favorite types of arguments, but I'm perfectly willing to either engage with them or ignore them in this thread and am not asking them to be cast off somewhere else.

How do I engage with people who make a claim in this thread that I disagree (or agree) with? Ask them to go to the stats thread (which they may or may not do) and then merge the discussion from that thread back into this thread? It's unnecessarily tedious, when the alternative is to just ask people to either scroll past analytics posts or simply put me or others on ignore.

Something tells me that if the majority of the recent analytics discussion was focused on Zdeno Chara and how he's been really good, or if I was making the argument that Kuznetsov has been bad that we wouldn't be having this discussion about moving it to the stats thread. It's only because the current discussion is about a polarizing figure in Kuznetsov where I'm taking the unpopular side that I'm being asked to go to a different thread.

Sorry, this seems like a bunch of crap and I'd prefer to keep discussing it here.

 

[g00n]

So again, why isn't there an intangibles thread? Why isn't there an eye-test thread? Why isn't there an appeal to authority thread? Those aren't typically my favorite types of arguments, but I'm perfectly willing to either engage with them or ignore them in this thread and am not asking them to be cast off somewhere else.

How do I engage with people who make a claim in this thread that I disagree (or agree) with? Ask them to go to the stats thread (which they may or may not do) and then merge the discussion from that thread back into this thread? It's unnecessarily tedious, when the alternative is to just ask people to either scroll past analytics posts or simply put me or others on ignore.

Something tells me that if the majority of the recent analytics discussion was focused on Zdeno Chara and how he's been really good, or if I was making the argument that Kuznetsov has been bad that we wouldn't be having this discussion about moving it to the stats thread. It's only because the current discussion is about a polarizing figure in Kuznetsov where I'm taking the unpopular side that I'm being asked to be cast off.

Sorry, this seems like a bunch of crap and I'd prefer to keep discussing it here.

Nobody is saying don't post fancy stats. Read what I posted earlier. The thread is there to keep the rest of the team talk from going off topic based on narrow, esoteric fancy stat validity debates.

Those other categories of "evidence" are usually linked to fans watching the game, not people poring over numbers alone, and people recognize they're usually opinions and observations rather than empirical facts.

Your defensiveness about this, and Kuznetsov in general, is misplaced. Most of the people you're attacking LIKE Kuzy and want him to do better. Most are fine with some stats in their soup. They just don't want walls of stats and charts hitting them over the head as "fact" every time you disagree about an opinion, and then weeks of back and forth about whether the stats are legit.