I feel like our Russians made Russia House even more popular than it was. Fun spot and who doesn't want to run into one of our boys getting hammered after a win?! Haha.
Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3
- Thread starter Calicaps
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Calicaps
NFA
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
I experienced that once back the Zednik days (don’t think it was @ RH, those nights are a blur mostly lol).....ran into a group of like 6 slamming drinks after the game. Good times...
John Price
Gang Gang
- Sep 19, 2008
- 384,581
- 30,363
So I used to walk all the way from Dupont Circle to the DC Hilton for security conferences, and every time I would walk up Wisconsin avenue I'd see that place, was a little surprised that Russian restaurants existed in DC, only checked the menu but I didn't know that Ovi and friends hung around there often pre-pandemic. As far as I know it never went anywhere and will be back when things go back to normal
Is it open and bustling now? I know Mari Vana used the covid shutdown to do renovate.
tenken00
Oh it's going down in Chinatown
- Jan 29, 2010
- 9,939
- 10,198
So basically RMNB just came out with a long interesting article (yes yes rehashing the same things over and over. I know! But its interesting at least!) on Kuzy.
There is actually a lot of stuff in there about Panik, Vrana, Jensen, Lavi, the works, but it's too much to summarize it all here. I just like pretty pictures too:
At last, the Kuznetsov solution: March snapshot
So basically, even though he doesn't have the numbers on the scoresheets, this is the best he's played in years at least. Since the Cup days according to xG rate
Butttt!
It's not because Kuzy is magically fixed. It's more likely that 20 games in, it's because of Lavi doing what Lavi does:
But Laviolette has not rebuilt Kuznetsov’s game, nor has he given him more line support. Instead, Laviolette’s solution to the Kuzy problem is shelter the living hell out of him. Kuznetsov is now the most offensively deployed player in the NHL (89.5 percent of his non-neutral starts are in the offensive zone, about twenty per hour). Despite that cushy context, one of every four opponent shot attempts comes from a high-danger area. For comparison, for Backstrom it’s one of every nine. And all those sacrificed offensive-zone starts come a cost. I’ve circled that cost in the graph below.
It’s Nic Dowd, who at a glance might seems like the weakest forward on the team with that 45.2 shot-attempt percentage (SA%). The Caps do six percentage points better in attempts when Dowd is on the bench, but that’s not a reflection of his play so much as it’s a reflection of his usage. Four times out of five, he’s being used defensively. Dowd had a role like that with the Canucks before he came to the Caps, and now Laviolette has returned him to it. This is too much to ask of his skill set, of which I am a big believer. But when we see Dowd and his linemate Hathaway racking up 20 and 21 penalty minutes respectively, that’s further evidence that they’re being asked to chase the puck too much.
So RMNB's conclusion seems to have a different conclusion as Japers' and we're right back to where we started again
There is actually a lot of stuff in there about Panik, Vrana, Jensen, Lavi, the works, but it's too much to summarize it all here. I just like pretty pictures too:
At last, the Kuznetsov solution: March snapshot
So basically, even though he doesn't have the numbers on the scoresheets, this is the best he's played in years at least. Since the Cup days according to xG rate
Butttt!
It's not because Kuzy is magically fixed. It's more likely that 20 games in, it's because of Lavi doing what Lavi does:
But Laviolette has not rebuilt Kuznetsov’s game, nor has he given him more line support. Instead, Laviolette’s solution to the Kuzy problem is shelter the living hell out of him. Kuznetsov is now the most offensively deployed player in the NHL (89.5 percent of his non-neutral starts are in the offensive zone, about twenty per hour). Despite that cushy context, one of every four opponent shot attempts comes from a high-danger area. For comparison, for Backstrom it’s one of every nine. And all those sacrificed offensive-zone starts come a cost. I’ve circled that cost in the graph below.
It’s Nic Dowd, who at a glance might seems like the weakest forward on the team with that 45.2 shot-attempt percentage (SA%). The Caps do six percentage points better in attempts when Dowd is on the bench, but that’s not a reflection of his play so much as it’s a reflection of his usage. Four times out of five, he’s being used defensively. Dowd had a role like that with the Canucks before he came to the Caps, and now Laviolette has returned him to it. This is too much to ask of his skill set, of which I am a big believer. But when we see Dowd and his linemate Hathaway racking up 20 and 21 penalty minutes respectively, that’s further evidence that they’re being asked to chase the puck too much.
So RMNB's conclusion seems to have a different conclusion as Japers' and we're right back to where we started again
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I will summarize that for you guys.
Kuzy is being heavy sheltered and manages to generate invisible offense which looks like real offense from 2018 by some obscure statistical metrics.
That should make him good looking target for some geek analyst from another team.
Which is good news for Caps.
Kuzy is being heavy sheltered and manages to generate invisible offense which looks like real offense from 2018 by some obscure statistical metrics.
That should make him good looking target for some geek analyst from another team.
Which is good news for Caps.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
So basically RMNB just came out with a long interesting article (yes yes rehashing the same things over and over. I know! But its interesting at least!) on Kuzy.
There is actually a lot of stuff in there about Panik, Vrana, Jensen, Lavi, the works, but it's too much to summarize it all here. I just like pretty pictures too:
At last, the Kuznetsov solution: March snapshot
So basically, even though he doesn't have the numbers on the scoresheets, this is the best he's played in years at least. Since the Cup days according to xG rate
Butttt!
It's not because Kuzy is magically fixed. It's more likely that 20 games in, it's because of Lavi doing what Lavi does:
But Laviolette has not rebuilt Kuznetsov’s game, nor has he given him more line support. Instead, Laviolette’s solution to the Kuzy problem is shelter the living hell out of him. Kuznetsov is now the most offensively deployed player in the NHL (89.5 percent of his non-neutral starts are in the offensive zone, about twenty per hour). Despite that cushy context, one of every four opponent shot attempts comes from a high-danger area. For comparison, for Backstrom it’s one of every nine. And all those sacrificed offensive-zone starts come a cost. I’ve circled that cost in the graph below.
It’s Nic Dowd, who at a glance might seems like the weakest forward on the team with that 45.2 shot-attempt percentage (SA%). The Caps do six percentage points better in attempts when Dowd is on the bench, but that’s not a reflection of his play so much as it’s a reflection of his usage. Four times out of five, he’s being used defensively. Dowd had a role like that with the Canucks before he came to the Caps, and now Laviolette has returned him to it. This is too much to ask of his skill set, of which I am a big believer. But when we see Dowd and his linemate Hathaway racking up 20 and 21 penalty minutes respectively, that’s further evidence that they’re being asked to chase the puck too much.
So RMNB's conclusion seems to have a different conclusion as Japers' and we're right back to where we started again
Despite that cushy context, one of every four opponent shot attempts comes from a high-danger area. For comparison, for Backstrom it’s one of every nine
heh heh heh....
/grabs popcorn
Waiting on our resident math wizards....
That’s one fugly graph....
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txpd
Registered User
Ovechkin08
Registered User
- Mar 10, 2021
- 3
- 5
yeah yeah whatever hopefully this nerd stats gets some idiot team to bite on kuzy and get his contract off the books and we might get a return instead of having to pay to dump his lazy ass
So wait... despite starting in the O zone over 80%, he's bleeding high danger shots against twice as much as Backie who is starting in the D zone ~65%?
Ok f*** this, I'm off the Kuzy bandwagon, nuke this turkey to Calgary or some place.
Is there a metric which will show Dowd's 6 goals in negative light? I hope there is, should be. Maybe its his hair color or whatever.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
Dave.....waiting on @twabby to confirm..../shrug.....
If I had to guess.....”luck” will be invoked....
ALLCAPSALLTHETIME
Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.
The torch and pitchfork gang is at it again.
Caps fans complain, therefore they are.
Caps fans complain, therefore they are.
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
- 31,226
- 15,788
Overrated. My greatest memory as a Caps fan was when they won the Expected Cups Trophy in 2010.
The fancy stats giveth, the fancy stats taketh away.
I do still like the bird celly!
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 66,245
- 21,240
txpd
Registered User
txpd
Registered User
I fully retract my retraction. I might not have shut them out, but we would still have won with me in goal tonight.
twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
- 14,116
- 15,596
No, Peter Hassett simply doesn't know how to read a table, or do simple division. From Natural Stat Trick (Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick):
| Player | CA | HDCA | % HDCA |
| Alex Ovechkin | 373 | 65 | 17.43% |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 379 | 60 | 15.83% |
| T.J. Oshie | 304 | 51 | 16.78% |
| Richard Panik | 245 | 43 | 17.55% |
| Jakub Vrana | 278 | 39 | 14.03% |
| Conor Sheary | 236 | 45 | 19.07% |
| Lars Eller | 220 | 36 | 16.36% |
| Nic Dowd | 300 | 48 | 16.00% |
| Garnet Hathaway | 275 | 45 | 16.36% |
| Carl Hagelin | 271 | 41 | 15.13% |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov | 194 | 33 | 17.01% |
| Tom Wilson | 269 | 38 | 14.13% |
| Daniel Sprong | 140 | 24 | 17.14% |
But not only that, even if he didn't mess up the numbers I think Peter Hassett made a huge mistake interpreting the numbers. Focusing on the proportion of shots that are high danger rather than the absolute number that are high-danger is uh highly misguided!
For instance, suppose Player A gave up 4 shots every 60 minutes, but 1 of them was high danger. Suppose Player B gave up 90 shots every 60 minutes, but 10 of them were high danger. Ignoring other context, who would you assume is doing better at suppressing chances?
Peter is saying that Player B is better, because only 1 in 9 are high danger shots vs. Player A who is allowing 1 in 4 shots against to be high danger.
Of course, this is nonsense.
On a per 60 basis, Backstrom gives up more high danger chances than Kuznetsov this season. He gives up more scoring chances per 60. He gives up more shots per 60. He gives up more goals per 60 (actual goals, the goals that matter to everyone). He gives up more expected goals per 60.
Does that mean that Kuznetsov is a better defensive player? No, not on its own. But it certainly doesn't show that he is a weaker defensive player either. A deeper analysis is needed to tackle that question, which he doesn't do.
Furthermore, he mentions the "cost" of sheltering Kuznetsov is that Dowd and the 4th line are putting up bad numbers in an absolute sense. He, again, I believe is very mistaken.
Dowd is currently sporting a 48% xGF%. Not great, but better than Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Wilson at this point. Here is Dowd's picture:
As mentioned, Dowd gets heavy defensive zone usage, only starting 16% in the offensive zone.
And here is Dowd's competition:
So to summarize Nic Dowd: he is facing very difficult competition in heavy D zone usage and is almost breaking even with expected goals. I think Dowd is actually doing a fantastic job in his role. Anyone clamoring for Jay Beagle to come back and replace him is on some sort of substance.
Peter's note about Dowd and Hathaway taking penalties is duly noted, but they've taken penalties their entire career and this year isn't really out of whack. In fact, Hathaway has taken fewer minor penalties on a per 60 basis this year than last year. Same with Hagelin. Dowd's is up, but it very well could be incidental.
I also think Peter has cause and effect mixed up. He thinks Dowd is getting such difficult matchups because Kuznetsov isn't being trusted with them. I see quite the reverse: I think Kuznetsov (and Backstrom, and Eller) are getting easier matchups because Dowd is being trusted with such difficult matchups. And with Dowd's results absorbing this tough competition, the strategy seems like a sound one. It's allowing the top 9 to be in a better position to score goals. Indeed, the team is the best in the NHL at 5v5 goals per 60.
I mentioned this in an earlier post, but Laviolette's usage of the 4th line reminds me a lot of how the Blackhawks used their 4th line in 2012-13, but especially in 2014-15. Marcus Kruger got 24% offensive zone starts and faced difficult competition, allowing more offensively gifted players like Jonathan Toews (60%), Patrick Sharp (72%), and Patrick Kane (78%) to feast on easier deployments. I don't need to remind you who won the Stanley Cup in 2013 and 2015 either.
TLDR: Peter Hassett can't read numbers from a chart or can't do division or both. And even if he could, he's interpreting the numbers in a really bad way. And I think he's confusing cause and effect with Dowd and Kuznetsov, especially since Backstrom, Oshie, Wilson, and Eller are also getting easy zone starts and no one would claim they are huge defensive liabilities. All of the top 9 is benefitting from Dowd getting those hard matchups and it seems to me to be a strategy that can win a Stanley Cup as evidenced by it being a strategy that was employed on at least 2 Stanley Cup winners in the past decade.
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