Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

[tenken00]

I don't know. I think we see so many flaws in the Caps' game because we see them not only every game, but almost every game against a good or decent opponent.

I think this intradivisional-play only is skewing a lot of perspective around the league, for better or worse. Like if a bunch of crappy teams play one another, one crappy team is bound to look good. And the opposite is also true.

 

[txpd]

well yes, he will and should do his job and protect teammates like always, but for now, I’d tone down the massive hits some. He’s adjusted fine before..

I was not worried on that subject but am mindful of what happened with Oshie

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was not worried on that subject but am mindful of what happened with Oshie

gonna need some historically softer guys to step up lol...

 

[txpd]

I don't know. I think we see so many flaws in the Caps' game because we see them not only every game, but almost every game against a good or decent opponent.

I think this intradivisional-play only is skewing a lot of perspective around the league, for better or worse. Like if a bunch of crappy teams play one another, one crappy team is bound to look good. And the opposite is also true.

I think its a terrible mistake to try and rank the top teams in the divisions. I know people are convinced that Tampa is just better and I am not sure how you compare the Lightning to the Capitals when you dont get to compare the two teams in games and each team's divisional competition against each other. I have no idea whether the Caps are 1 or 8 at this point

 

[tenken00]

I think its a terrible mistake to try and rank the top teams in the divisions. I know people are convinced that Tampa is just better and I am not sure how you compare the Lightning to the Capitals when you dont get to compare the two teams in games and each team's divisional competition against each other. I have no idea whether the Caps are 1 or 8 at this point

It's just so weird. I really do think the Cup is up for grabs for anyone this year. At least there is only 21 games left. I'm ready for the playoffs. Put me in coach.

 

[kicksavedave]

It's just so weird. I really do think the Cup is up for grabs for anyone this year. At least there is only 21 games left. I'm ready for the playoffs. Put me in coach.

Gonna be weird for the final four to see teams they've not played against in over a year.

 

[Langway]

Very interesting against the heavier NYI. Good to see Sprong staying in.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Come on Sammy, grab that starter’s role.

 

[txpd]

Come on Sammy, grab that starter’s role.

A stuff job would go a long way to tilting the starts in his favor. I am kind of expecting that. This game is big because the Islanders are on the fence and can be knocked over with a solid defeat

 

[twabby]

Very interesting against the heavier NYI. Good to see Sprong staying in.

I don't mind Panik sitting for the time being since he has been struggling recently, but I do think people's perception of him are being colored by a ridiculously low PDO (95.44) and having the worst on-ice shooting and save percentages on the team.

If Sprong doesn't continue scoring I'd like to see Panik re-inserted into the lineup ASAP, as Sprong is currently by far their weakest player according to the underlyings.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I agree, but Panik isn’t producing and as long as Sprong is, he’s in. Short leash IMO, so it won’t take much (of a slip from Sprong) for him to get back in there.

production matters.

 

[Melkor]

I really am interested to see what Vrana's 'underlyings' would look like on, let's say, the 3rd line. Genuinely curious. When you actually watch games he's by far the least contributing player on the top-6 especially when Ovechkin's actually engaged

 

[kicksavedave]

I don't mind Panik sitting for the time being since he has been struggling recently, but I do think people's perception of him are being colored by a ridiculously low PDO (95.44) and having the worst on-ice shooting and save percentages on the team.

If Sprong doesn't continue scoring I'd like to see Panik re-inserted into the lineup ASAP, as Sprong is currently by far their weakest player according to the underlyings.

Wouldn't Panik's bad shooting percentage be in part because he is kinda allergic to going to the net and grinding out dirty goals? Most all his shots seem to come from 40 feet on a rush and right in the goalie's belly.

 

[crab]

Wouldn't Panik's bad shooting percentage be in part because he is kinda allergic to going to the net and grinding out dirty goals? Most all his shots seem to come from 40 feet on a rush and right in the goalie's belly.

From my perspective he tends to miss the net or put it directly at the goalie as well. This obviously is hurting his shooting percentage.

 

[twabby]

Wouldn't Panik's bad shooting percentage be in part because he is kinda allergic to going to the net and grinding out dirty goals? Most all his shots seem to come from 40 feet on a rush and right in the goalie's belly.

I don't think so. Here's his spray chart this year:

Spoiler

He seems to be getting to the net enough for my liking, especially compared to some others on the team, but the pucks just aren't going in for him personally or for his teammates while he's on the ice (Lars Eller has similarly poor on ice numbers this year, for example).

I suppose Panik could just be a bad shooter, but in that case I think it would have been apparent in other years. Yet in other years he has typically outpaced his ixG (he's a career 0.77 iG/60 compared to 0.75 ixG/60, and last year alone he outpaced his ixG/60). This year he is only scoring 0.45 iG/60 against 0.65 ixG/60 (the 0.65 ixG number differs from the 0.57 ixG/60 number in the above spray chart because Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz use different calculations for expected goals).

I suppose also that maybe there's something about Laviolette's system that doesn't mesh well with Panik's style in terms of shooting, but I haven't really seen anything to indicate that. I think the more likely explanation is just that he and his line have been unlucky offensively.

What's even more curious is that his on-ice save percentage is in the toilet when this is where the shots are coming from when he's on the ice:

Spoiler

I think he and his line have been particularly unlucky on the defensive side, where Panik has the 18th worst on-ice save % of any regular forward in the NHL (out of 343 qualified players) despite the shot chart shown above.

I would bet on these averages reverting to more normal numbers sometime soon if and when he gets another crack in the lineup, and at that point I think his contributions will be more easily noticed.

 

[txpd]

I never got the feeling that Panik is allergic to the dirty areas and grinding it out. In fact I think he is the opposite of a perimeter player. He doesnt shoot from outside. Now this I would like to see a chart on. He is a physical player in the corners and hits on the forecheck. That kind of player isnt allergic to contact. I just dont think he has been good at creating chances for himself.

I dont think he fits in with the team.

 

[g00n]

I don't think so. Here's his spray chart this year:

Spoiler

He seems to be getting to the net enough for my liking, especially compared to some others on the team, but the pucks just aren't going in for him personally or for his teammates while he's on the ice (Lars Eller has similarly poor on ice numbers this year, for example).

I suppose Panik could just be a bad shooter, but in that case I think it would have been apparent in other years. Yet in other years he has typically outpaced his ixG (he's a career 0.77 iG/60 compared to 0.75 ixG/60, and last year alone he outpaced his ixG/60). This year he is only scoring 0.45 iG/60 against 0.65 ixG/60 (the 0.65 ixG number differs from the 0.57 ixG/60 number in the above spray chart because Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz use different calculations for expected goals).

I suppose also that maybe there's something about Laviolette's system that doesn't mesh well with Panik's style in terms of shooting, but I haven't really seen anything to indicate that. I think the more likely explanation is just that he and his line have been unlucky offensively.

What's even more curious is that his on-ice save percentage is in the toilet when this is where the shots are coming from when he's on the ice:

Spoiler

View attachment 416082

I think he and his line have been particularly unlucky on the defensive side, where Panik has the 18th worst on-ice save % of any regular forward in the NHL (out of 343 qualified players) despite the shot chart shown above.

I would bet on these averages reverting to more normal numbers sometime soon if and when he gets another crack in the lineup, and at that point I think his contributions will be more easily noticed.

If I'm reading these right there are a lot of shots from the right point and he's deflecting the puck offline quite a bit. Not sure what the percentage should be for deflections actually being on-net.

 

[kicksavedave]

I don't think so. Here's his spray chart this year:

Spoiler

He seems to be getting to the net enough for my liking, especially compared to some others on the team, but the pucks just aren't going in for him personally or for his teammates while he's on the ice (Lars Eller has similarly poor on ice numbers this year, for example).

I suppose Panik could just be a bad shooter, but in that case I think it would have been apparent in other years. Yet in other years he has typically outpaced his ixG (he's a career 0.77 iG/60 compared to 0.75 ixG/60, and last year alone he outpaced his ixG/60). This year he is only scoring 0.45 iG/60 against 0.65 ixG/60 (the 0.65 ixG number differs from the 0.57 ixG/60 number in the above spray chart because Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz use different calculations for expected goals).

I suppose also that maybe there's something about Laviolette's system that doesn't mesh well with Panik's style in terms of shooting, but I haven't really seen anything to indicate that. I think the more likely explanation is just that he and his line have been unlucky offensively.

What's even more curious is that his on-ice save percentage is in the toilet when this is where the shots are coming from when he's on the ice:

Spoiler

View attachment 416082

I think he and his line have been particularly unlucky on the defensive side, where Panik has the 18th worst on-ice save % of any regular forward in the NHL (out of 343 qualified players) despite the shot chart shown above.

I would bet on these averages reverting to more normal numbers sometime soon if and when he gets another crack in the lineup, and at that point I think his contributions will be more easily noticed.

I need the cliff notes here LOL. If I read the spray chart shows has two goals (he actually has 3 as of now), one from way out and one from close, but the one from close I feel like was a bounce off his skate. But then my memory sucks.

Anyway, lets see if SProng can make it stick. He's more fun to watch than Panik 8 days a week.

 

[HecticGlow]

Given the Caps are quite data-minded, and moved on Panik the day free agency opened in 2019, I wonder what it was in his underlying stats that convinced them he would be a good fit for this team? Especially given they pencilled him in opposite Hagelin, yet expected that line to keep producing at fairly similar rates to what Burakovsky and Connolly were there... and then gave him four years. They must have seen something they really liked which hasn’t translated into his Caps game?

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Would love to somehow snag Gusev off waivers and move out Panik. Pipedream.

 

[txpd]

Given the Caps are quite data-minded, and moved on Panik the day free agency opened in 2019, I wonder what it was in his underlying stats that convinced them he would be a good fit for this team? Especially given they pencilled him in opposite Hagelin, yet expected that line to keep producing at fairly similar rates to what Burakovsky and Connolly were there... and then gave him four years. They must have seen something they really liked which hasn’t translated into his Caps game?

Pretty sure they were looking for a more defensive dynamic there. I will see if I can find a comment.

I quick search shows that Panik is doing nothing that MacLellan said he would bring to the table. So.

 

[Calicaps]

Pretty sure they were looking for a more defensive dynamic there. I will see if I can find a comment.

I quick search shows that Panik is doing nothing that MacLellan said he would bring to the table. So.

I may be wrong... and I'm too lazy to look, but I thought I recalled Mac emphasizing Panik's scoring touch.

 

[txpd]

I may be wrong... and I'm too lazy to look, but I thought I recalled Mac emphasizing Panik's scoring touch.

I saw him say that he could skate in the top 6 some. Fail. The he could bring something to the pp. Fail. That he was solid on the pk. Fail.

At this point he gets to play because he doesnt mess up that much while players that producer more wash that by too many mistakes.

 

[Calicaps]

I saw him say that he could skate in the top 6 some. Fail. The he could bring something to the pp. Fail. That he was solid on the pk. Fail.

At this point he gets to play because he doesnt mess up that much while players that producer more wash that by too many mistakes.

oof.

 

[Hivemind]

That he was solid on the pk. Fail.

???

Panik has been one of the team's more effective PKers over the past two seasons. He's only given up 4 goals against, and his GA/60 rates among Caps forwards are lodged between Carl Hagelin and Tom Wilson on the PK. He surrenders High Danger chances against at the third lowest rate among Caps forwards on the PK, trailing just Oshie and Hathaway (and Stephenson before he was traded last year). His xGA is 2nd lowest, behind only Oshie, on the PK.

This is the part where you say something about ice time, because that's the only tool you use to evaluate players.