Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

[twabby]

There is at least a possibility that Caps struggle defending against an aggressive 5-man attack, with opposing defensemen getting heavily involved in the offensive zone. That would make the whole problem more opposition driven and less about the Caps.

There is also the issue of Eller missing and Caps not replacing him. It's kind of crazy that we are spending long stretches of games rotating 3 centers. It's a bold move and can't be of much long term benefit to the oldest team in the league.

Edit: Just saw that HecticGlow brought up the Oshie deployment issue as well.

Eller being out also made it even more curious that Laviolette put Kuznetsov on the bench on Sunday, effectively only playing Dowd and Backstrom for large stretches of the third period. You’d think with only 3 true centers in the lineup it’d be even riskier to put Kuznetsov on the bench.

I think it’s possible the Capitals aren’t as equipped to handle a 5 man forecheck as other teams, but in that case I don’t think the solution is to bench one of their best players in the neutral zone in order to solve this problem. Especially when they did perform much better when they did play Kuznetsov in recent games in the third period while holding a lead. Why not keep going with what worked?

It doesn’t shock me to see that when Kuznetsov is on the ice the Capitals both prevent the most goals against and score the most goals for compared to any other player on the team when the Capitals are leading.

 

[txpd]

Eller being out also made it even more curious that Laviolette put Kuznetsov on the bench on Sunday, effectively only playing Dowd and Backstrom for large stretches of the third period. You’d think with only 3 true centers in the lineup it’d be even riskier to put Kuznetsov on the bench.

Eller had no effect. He doesnt want Kuzy out in defensive situations. Having Eller out didnt change how he felt about Kuzy. He has Backstrom and Dowd. I would suggest that he trusts Oshie out of position defensively more than Kuznetsov. So, he gets Oshie out at center for some shifts to spell Backstrom.

You wont ever understand this, though, if I am right to recall that you dont see the value in primary defensive players.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Interesting article here. Says Caps are still winning games but need to stay on the attack when they have the lead.

Capitals still winning games, but need to "stay on the attack" when ahead

 

[traparatus]

Eller being out also made it even more curious that Laviolette put Kuznetsov on the bench on Sunday, effectively only playing Dowd and Backstrom for large stretches of the third period. You’d think with only 3 true centers in the lineup it’d be even riskier to put Kuznetsov on the bench.

I think it’s possible the Capitals aren’t as equipped to handle a 5 man forecheck as other teams, but in that case I don’t think the solution is to bench one of their best players in the neutral zone in order to solve this problem. Especially when they did perform much better when they did play Kuznetsov in recent games in the third period while holding a lead. Why not keep going with what worked?

It doesn’t shock me to see that when Kuznetsov is on the ice the Capitals both prevent the most goals against and score the most goals for compared to any other player on the team when the Capitals are leading.

Coaches are weird, man. Seems pretty clear that playing a period with 2 centers, one of whom is a 33 year old Backstrom is at best unsustainable.

Seems like they either have to pick up another center or start using Kuznetsov as you suggest. I'd like to see both happen.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think there are a lot of biases at play here that are giving the impression there's some huge 3rd period blown lead problem. Teams that trail tend to press the offense and take more chances. Teams that are leading tend to tighten up. This shit is as OLD AS THE HILLS in all sports, and across almost all teams.

And IMO the "problem" here is tinged by the fear and disappointment (and agendas some have) whenever there's a recently eroded lead. Here's the reality:

View attachment 414846


Caps this season are 4th BEST IN THE LEAGUE at closing the deal when leading after 2 periods. They've lost ONCE.

So what is all this handwringing really about, if not people just disliking the idea that the bench shortens and the shutdown players bring home 2 points.

How is .947 winning % and 18-1 record leading after 2 periods some crisis that demands opening up the offense in the 3rd period??

By far the bigger concern is what happens after they grab an EARLY lead.

View attachment 414848

Much, much worse at protecting a lead after 1 period despite a very good 2nd period goal differential. And they aren't blowing those leads in the 3rd period, again per the chart further up.

The problem is losing leads in the FIRST period, or giving up slim leads in the 2nd. Not blowing leads later in the game.

 

[tenken00]

View attachment 414909

I wonder what he said to dear old mum to make him go boom

 

[crab]

I think there are a lot of biases at play here that are giving the impression there's some huge 3rd period blown lead problem. Teams that trail tend to press the offense and take more chances. Teams that are leading tend to tighten up. This shit is as OLD AS THE HILLS in all sports, and across almost all teams.

And IMO the "problem" here is tinged by the fear and disappointment (and agendas some have) whenever there's a recently eroded lead. Here's the reality:

View attachment 414846


Caps this season are 4th BEST IN THE LEAGUE at closing the deal when leading after 2 periods. They've lost ONCE.

So what is all this handwringing really about, if not people just disliking the idea that the bench shortens and the shutdown players bring home 2 points.

How is .947 winning % and 18-1 record leading after 2 periods some crisis that demands opening up the offense in the 3rd period??

By far the bigger concern is what happens after they grab an EARLY lead.

View attachment 414848

Much, much worse at protecting a lead after 1 period despite a very good 2nd period goal differential. And they aren't blowing those leads in the 3rd period, again per the chart further up.

The problem is losing leads in the FIRST period, or giving up slim leads in the 2nd. Not blowing leads later in the game.

It’s stressful to watch?

 

[895]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Gostisbhere is unclaimed.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Stats or eye test shedding multiple goal leads routinely against inferior teams is a bad indicator for the playoffs. That's how top teams get caved in when the opposition has that extra playoff jump to get that final tying goal that they may be lacking in the regular season.

They need to keep pushing for offense or at the very least when they turtle they need to turtle by keeping the puck in the opposing zone instead of just trying to keep the opposition to the outside while letting them freewheel with the puck.

Less this

More this

I thought the Caps only turtle when Trotz was coach?

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Coaches are weird, man. Seems pretty clear that playing a period with 2 centers, one of whom is a 33 year old Backstrom is at best unsustainable.

Seems like they either have to pick up another center or start using Kuznetsov as you suggest. I'd like to see both happen.

Yeah if they keep doing it and go up against teams that comfortably roll 4 lines like NYI, Carolina or Tampa it's gonna look like... well... every year except one so far.

 

[twabby]

I think there are a lot of biases at play here that are giving the impression there's some huge 3rd period blown lead problem. Teams that trail tend to press the offense and take more chances. Teams that are leading tend to tighten up. This shit is as OLD AS THE HILLS in all sports, and across almost all teams.

As the earlier chart I posted shows, the Capitals are much worse overall in terms of xGD than other teams when holding a lead.

And IMO the "problem" here is tinged by the fear and disappointment (and agendas some have) whenever there's a recently eroded lead. Here's the reality:

View attachment 414846


Caps this season are 4th BEST IN THE LEAGUE at closing the deal when leading after 2 periods. They've lost ONCE.

So what is all this handwringing really about, if not people just disliking the idea that the bench shortens and the shutdown players bring home 2 points.

How is .947 winning % and 18-1 record leading after 2 periods some crisis that demands opening up the offense in the 3rd period??

Again, if you're only concerned about results and not the process, then everything is fine. But the process suggests that under the hood something is wrong and could bite them in the ass come the postseason. Indeed they are ranked 24th of 31 teams in xGF% and xGD when leading. That's not good if you're facing the Lightning, Avalanche, or even the Penguins or Bruins who have enough talent to take advantage of a turtling team.

By far the bigger concern is what happens after they grab an EARLY lead.

View attachment 414848

Much, much worse at protecting a lead after 1 period despite a very good 2nd period goal differential. And they aren't blowing those leads in the 3rd period, again per the chart further up.

The problem is losing leads in the FIRST period, or giving up slim leads in the 2nd. Not blowing leads later in the game.

Evgeny Kuznetsov has the best expected goal differential on the team when they are leading at 54%. The team as a whole is at 48%.

But since you don't really care about process and only care about the results, Evgeny Kuznetsov also enjoys the best actual goal differential at 71% when leading.

And since a goal against means more than a goal for when leading, it's important to weigh goals against more heavily than goals for. Good thing Evgeny Kuznetsov is also the best on the team in terms of preventing goals against when leading, allowing only 1.81 goals against/60 while on the ice and leading.

And since it's fun to score goals, it's notable than Evgeny Kuznetsov is also second behind only Sprong is terms of on-ice goals for when leading.

So to summarize: the Capitals have blown many multigoal leads, even if they've hung on to win many of them. Evgeny Kuznetsov, by both xG and by actual goals, has been the best player on the team while leading. So why not play him more while leading? Especially now when Lars Eller is out injured and there are only 3 true centers in the lineup?

[mod]

 

[um]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Gostisbhere is unclaimed.

That would surprise me, his contract isn’t that bad and there’s one year after this one.

 

[The Instigator]

That would surprise me, his contract isn’t that bad and there’s one year after this one.

He has two years remaining I believe.

 

[g00n]

As the earlier chart I posted shows, the Capitals are much worse overall in terms of xGD than other teams when holding a lead.



Again, if you're only concerned about results and not the process, then everything is fine. But the process suggests that under the hood something is wrong and could bite them in the ass come the postseason. Indeed they are ranked 24th of 31 teams in xGF% and xGD when leading. That's not good if you're facing the Lightning, Avalanche, or even the Penguins or Bruins who have enough talent to take advantage of a turtling team.



Evgeny Kuznetsov has the best expected goal differential on the team when they are leading at 54%. The team as a whole is at 48%.

But since you don't really care about process and only care about the results, Evgeny Kuznetsov also enjoys the best actual goal differential at 71% when leading.

And since a goal against means more than a goal for when leading, it's important to weigh goals against more heavily than goals for. Good thing Evgeny Kuznetsov is also the best on the team in terms of preventing goals against when leading, allowing only 1.81 goals against/60 while on the ice and leading.

And since it's fun to score goals, it's notable than Evgeny Kuznetsov is also second behind only Sprong is terms of on-ice goals for when leading.

So to summarize: the Capitals have blown many multigoal leads, even if they've hung on to win many of them. Evgeny Kuznetsov, by both xG and by actual goals, has been the best player on the team while leading. So why not play him more while leading? Especially now when Lars Eller is out injured and there are only 3 true centers in the lineup?

[mod]

Good lord.

Just because we're looking at results doesn't mean we don't care about "process" or stats. We just don't believe your interpretations of the stats YOU believe in most mean MORE than the actual results.

I don't know how many times this needs to be said before you come down off the cross and stop pretending to be the sole protector of ultimate truth who's persecuted for unrecognized genius.

100% chance every NHL coach and player values the kind of results we're getting more than "yeah but xGF".

xGF is not the beginning and end of the "process". That's a fact. And you don't seem to understand there's more to this game than fancy stats. It's never more evident than your comments about 5v5 vs teams deployments as it relates to overall TOI during heavy play/rotation, and now the FACTS about actual blown 3rd period leads (there's ONE, and the Caps are practically best on the league in the stat).

But I'm sure if the Caps fail to win the Cup this season--same as every team but one does every year--you'll have your "told you so" Power Point presentation ready to go. Should be tons of fun.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think there are a lot of biases at play here that are giving the impression there's some huge 3rd period blown lead problem. Teams that trail tend to press the offense and take more chances. Teams that are leading tend to tighten up. This shit is as OLD AS THE HILLS in all sports, and across almost all teams.

And IMO the "problem" here is tinged by the fear and disappointment (and agendas some have) whenever there's a recently eroded lead. Here's the reality:

View attachment 414846


Caps this season are 4th BEST IN THE LEAGUE at closing the deal when leading after 2 periods. They've lost ONCE.

So what is all this handwringing really about, if not people just disliking the idea that the bench shortens and the shutdown players bring home 2 points.

How is .947 winning % and 18-1 record leading after 2 periods some crisis that demands opening up the offense in the 3rd period??

By far the bigger concern is what happens after they grab an EARLY lead.

View attachment 414848

Much, much worse at protecting a lead after 1 period despite a very good 2nd period goal differential. And they aren't blowing those leads in the 3rd period, again per the chart further up.

The problem is losing leads in the FIRST period, or giving up slim leads in the 2nd. Not blowing leads later in the game.

This post didn't age too well, as it was literally a few hours later they lost after having a lead, but its also disingenuous to suggest their 3rd period play is no cause for concern. They've given up huge leads a LOT recently, and when the lead wasn't huge they lost last night. Its a clear trend, getting worse not better, and in the playoffs they should not expect to get 4-0 leads as often as when they play Buffalo and NJ and Rags.

Wonder where they are now relative to the leaders that its 18-2 instead of 18-1.

 

[kicksavedave]

As the earlier chart I posted shows, the Capitals are much worse overall in terms of xGD than other teams when holding a lead.



Again, if you're only concerned about results and not the process, then everything is fine. But the process suggests that under the hood something is wrong and could bite them in the ass come the postseason. Indeed they are ranked 24th of 31 teams in xGF% and xGD when leading. That's not good if you're facing the Lightning, Avalanche, or even the Penguins or Bruins who have enough talent to take advantage of a turtling team.



Evgeny Kuznetsov has the best expected goal differential on the team when they are leading at 54%. The team as a whole is at 48%.

But since you don't really care about process and only care about the results, Evgeny Kuznetsov also enjoys the best actual goal differential at 71% when leading.

And since a goal against means more than a goal for when leading, it's important to weigh goals against more heavily than goals for. Good thing Evgeny Kuznetsov is also the best on the team in terms of preventing goals against when leading, allowing only 1.81 goals against/60 while on the ice and leading.

And since it's fun to score goals, it's notable than Evgeny Kuznetsov is also second behind only Sprong is terms of on-ice goals for when leading.

So to summarize: the Capitals have blown many multigoal leads, even if they've hung on to win many of them. Evgeny Kuznetsov, by both xG and by actual goals, has been the best player on the team while leading. So why not play him more while leading? Especially now when Lars Eller is out injured and there are only 3 true centers in the lineup?

[mod]

 

[g00n]

This post didn't age too well, as it was literally a few hours later they lost after having a lead, but its also disingenuous to suggest their 3rd period play is no cause for concern. They've given up huge leads a LOT recently, and when the lead wasn't huge they lost last night. Its a clear trend, getting worse not better, and in the playoffs they should not expect to get 4-0 leads as often as when they play Buffalo and NJ and Rags.

Wonder where they are now relative to the leaders that its 18-2 instead of 18-1.

Nothing has changed related to what I posted other than they now have TWO whole blown 3rd period leads all season and still win 90% of the time when leading after 2 periods.

Last night's blown lead was not due to the coach refusing to ice his stars in favor of grinding/trapping/etc aka turtling, as was the contention from some here.

The problem last night was horrid play at our own blueline which led to rushes the other way.

As I said in the GDT, I'm much more prone to believing letdowns late in the game are due to management of overall TOI during compressed scheduling and the resulting matchup/fatigue issues. This is the oldest team in the NHL and it may be showing. That's got nothing to do with complaints about 1-2 skipped shifts for xGF darlings.

 

[g00n]

They could score more in the 3rd and mitigate some of the issue, but the bigger problem is they give up too many late in the game (made worse by these last 2 games which account for 8 of their 44 GA in the 3rd pd). Prior to this weekend they were middle of the pack in 3rd pd GA.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They’ve had decent leads and slacked off in what, a handful+ of games, most that we win?

I’m much more worried about solid goaltending going into the playoffs than this little downswing.

to @tenken00 ‘s point....it is stressful as hell and annoying to watch....so I will be happy when it is worked out, and it will be. Plenty of games left for Lavi to figure it out.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Caps need young blood...would’ve been nice to see the Caps sign him but of course the rich get richer.

https://t.co/9RGzPvUz3W?amp=1

 

[kicksavedave]

They’ve had decent leads and slacked off in what, a handful+ of games, most that we win?

I’m much more worried about solid goaltending going into the playoffs than this little downswing.

to @tenken00 ‘s point....it is stressful as hell and annoying to watch....so I will be happy when it is worked out, and it will be. Plenty of games left for Lavi to figure it out.

If he figures it out by playing Kuzy more in the 3rd period with leads, will you be delivering your apology to Twabby via flowers, or candies

 

[kicksavedave]

Caps need young blood...would’ve been nice to see the Caps sign him but of course the rich get richer.

Lightning sign college free agent forward Odeen Tufto

5'7" 174. Reincarnation of Martin St Louis?

 

[g00n]

If he figures it out by playing Kuzy more in the 3rd period with leads, will you be delivering your apology to Twabby via flowers, or candies

In the 3rd period collapse last night Kuzy, Ovie and Oshie were on the ice for 2 of the 3 goals against that weren't empty net. The only forwards with more 3rd period ice time were Backstrom and Wilson.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If he figures it out by playing Kuzy more in the 3rd period with leads, will you be delivering your apology to Twabby via flowers, or candies

I will cheer and acknowledge any decision that wins us a Cup, so yes, and you won’t see me here taking passive aggressive shots at Kuzy after the fact.

Now ask me if I think that will be the solution.....the answer is no. Kuzy (and Vrana) seem unlikely to be the shutdown answer in the 3rd that leads us to the promised land again.

 

[kicksavedave]

In the 3rd period collapse last night Kuzy, Ovie and Oshie were on the ice for 2 of the 3 goals against that weren't empty net. The only forwards with more 3rd period ice time were Backstrom and Wilson.

Don't think this is correct. I just re-watched those goals. Rags 2nd (1st of the 3rd period) was the 4th line. Rags 3rd was Kuzy, Ovi Oshie but Kuzy made a nice pass to Oshie who then passed to no one at all and the Rags then scored while Kuzy was no where near the play ( he was on his man who was outside the blueline). Rags 4th (3rd of the period) was Eller Vrana Sprong. Last one was empty net.