Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Someone needs to let Mac know the year is 2021. He keeps trying to form a 2010 all star team.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

If Suter comes in much cheaper than Dillon then I'm certainly for this plan as part of a grander scheme to land that impact center. However I would caution that there's not too much daylight between Brenden Dillon and Ryan Suter in terms of overall impact so this move alone wouldn't really move the needle much IMO.

I was thinking Suter could be our younger and more mobile but still declining Chara this year and come in on a cheap deal to (hopefully) chase a Cup. He could be some insurance for the team as Fehervary adjusts to full-time NHL duty and then he should make a terrific 3LD, ideally with Jensen or TVR.

Out: Chara, Dillon
In: Fehervary, Suter

I guess it's fun to pile on Mac for having a veteran team but I don't know why people are shitting on Suter other than it's the cool thing to do. He's not the force he once was and granted, Minnesota was an awful 5-on-5 team last year with terrible underlying metrics but Suter led them in xGF% and was 2nd among defensemen in CF% while playing 7 minutes less than their ice-time leader (Brodin).

Seems like a decent plan to me.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Didn't pay much attention to Suter this season. Does he have any game left?

Post #202 has my thoughts on it but yeah, he's got some game left.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Landeskog and the Avs "not even close" to an extension, per Dreger, and unless Colorado changes their offer significantly Landeskog will go to market. Could just be a negotiating tactic by Landeskog's camp but Colorado has cap issues so maybe there's fire to that smoke. Washington would almost certainly have to lose Oshie to Seattle to make it work and even then probably dump another contract but I'd love to have him in DC. I love Osh but Landeskog would be a perfect fit in the top six now and he's young enough at 28 to still be effective when McMichael/Protas/Lapierre all graduate (assuming they all graduate).

 

[Langway]

Someone needs to let Mac know the year is 2021. He keeps trying to form a 2010 all star team.

Eh. It's a matter of convenience and also perhaps leveraging their UFA status in a way that may replenish the pipeline a bit. I do consider Suter an upgrade over Dillon so if they could sign Suter and trade Dillon for even just a third rounder that's not a bad piece of business while upgrading. He's older but historically a better possession guy, more capable of eating minutes all-around and less prone to take penalties. He may drop off considerably before you know it so term could be an issue but I'm comfortable concluding Dillon isn't the right fit. Similarly, if they want more of a veteran compliment to Samsonov it could make sense to trade Vanecek pre-expansion and gain an asset. They may be at the point with Kuznetsov where futures and cap space is enough of a return. The bigger barrier may be expanding the teams he'd accept being dealt to. The threat of being left unprotected and potentially selected by Seattle has to be used as leverage in the coming days. Maybe he's comfortable waiting them out but I'd work that angle if I'm Mac. If he's not moved by then I can see them not protecting him and seeing what happens. I don't doubt they're at that point. It's unfortunate that one of their key players likely has negligible value. They bear a lot of responsibility in how it's played out. It's salvaging time because I doubt they're interested in being patient and building back up his value.

They do need to focus more on younger UFAs, pace and upside but given their cap constraints they mostly need value and Suter could provide it. That was the argument in favor of Chara and ultimately they did net an asset for Siegenthaler. They can't lose the overall vision in the hunt for value and depth but Suter is a better fit than Chara was. I'd consider a lot of situations where particularly a younger UFA replaces someone under contract that's moved for an asset. It may realistically be the best route to restructure. I don't know if they're that desperate for picks and better organizational depth but it's a helpful perk while shaking it up if it can be done. This is probably going to be a fairly old and mediocre team no matter what. If all they're interested in doing is mainly tweaking beyond 92 then doing so while getting younger and/or gaining some assets is a decent strategy. They do still have some contender status as a UFA destination so managing to leverage it may be one of their few remaining strengths to lean on. I don't expect massive changes but it's an area they should continue to exploit for as long as it's available. They need to be selective but it should be a key part of being able to stay relevant.

 

[trick9]

Expecting Seattle to take Vanecek unless Oshie is somehow left unprotected. Then Dillon traded to Vancouver and Suter to sign here to join the retirement crew.

I don't think they trade Kuznetsov because of the lack of options to replace him.

 

[txpd]

Someone needs to let Mac know the year is 2021. He keeps trying to form a 2010 all star team.

Would you care to put some meat on that bone of an insult? How are the Caps a 2010 team in your view?

 

[txpd]

SMH. Suter? Are we trying to become a retirement home?

Freidman said that talking to people around the league that Washington was among 3 teams mentioned. This is typical Canadian media programming. He is not saying there are sources saying the Caps want him. Its just scouts and front office people and coaches and players maybe that if they were guessing, they think LA, Vegas and DC.

Suter played 20+mins last season and was good. My thinking would be there is no cap space for the money he will be offered. I dont think the Caps have any interest

 

[txpd]

I don't think they trade Kuznetsov because of the lack of options to replace him.

I have reached a point where I think the only way Kuznetsov is traded is if replacing him has no effect on the need to trade him. I think he stays. I am fully prepared to find out that the situation is untenable and that he is out already effectively.

 

[twabby]

I was thinking Suter could be our younger and more mobile but still declining Chara this year and come in on a cheap deal to (hopefully) chase a Cup. He could be some insurance for the team as Fehervary adjusts to full-time NHL duty and then he should make a terrific 3LD, ideally with Jensen or TVR.

Out: Chara, Dillon
In: Fehervary, Suter

I guess it's fun to pile on Mac for having a veteran team but I don't know why people are shitting on Suter other than it's the cool thing to do. He's not the force he once was and granted, Minnesota was an awful 5-on-5 team last year with terrible underlying metrics but Suter led them in xGF% and was 2nd among defensemen in CF% while playing 7 minutes less than their ice-time leader (Brodin).

Seems like a decent plan to me.

I don't mind the swaps you mentioned above but there needs to be more to go along with it.

I don't know where you're getting your stats about Minnesota as a team but they were a fine 5v5 team overall, 53% xGF at 5v5.

The thing that's really in question with me is exactly how much Spurgeon has carried Suter. There's no doubt that Spurgeon is the better player currently but different models have slightly different opinions on Suter:

Spoiler: Player isolates for Ryan Suter

Isolate over 3 years from HockeyViz:

Player card from Evolving Hockey:

Player cards from JFresh at EPRinkside:

Hockeyviz has Suter as a marginally above average offensive playdriver while Evolving-Hockey and JFresh consider him to be a good offensive playdriver. All three models don't love his defensive game at this point.

Again I think Suter is probably an upgrade over Dillon but Suter is also at the age where his decline is only going to accelerate so will the upgrade actually be noticeable. If it nets extra cap space and that cap space is used wisely it seems like a good move. And maybe a team like Vancouver gives up a decent amount for a guy like Dillon which would make the swap even better. But by itself as a straight-up talent swap Dillon->Suter doesn't do much IMO.

 

[pman25]

I tend to think Suter won't come at bargain bin price. And if he does, I'd guess Tampa. Otherwise, he can probably swing a 2-3 year contract for a few million. Likely out of our price range.

 

[twabby]

The more sensical UFA signing to me remains Dougie Hamilton. He is a Norris-level 1D who drives offense and defense in a way that few others in the league do.

Replacing Carlson with Hamilton would provide a significant on-ice upgrade and likely wouldn’t cost much more against the cap (Evolving Wild and The Athletic are projecting Hamilton to get between $8 and $9 million AAV). Not only that but in terms of assets returned a John Carlson trade is likely to return a significant haul, much more than trading Dillon for instance.

 

[AZ Caps Fan]

Why would Suter go to DC when maybe 5 other teams in the East are closer to a championship?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Eh. It's a matter of convenience and also perhaps leveraging their UFA status in a way that may replenish the pipeline a bit. I do consider Suter an upgrade over Dillon so if they could sign Suter and trade Dillon for even just a third rounder that's not a bad piece of business while upgrading. He's older but historically a better possession guy, more capable of eating minutes all-around and less prone to take penalties. He may drop off considerably before you know it so term could be an issue but I'm comfortable concluding Dillon isn't the right fit. Similarly, if they want more of a veteran compliment to Samsonov it could make sense to trade Vanecek pre-expansion and gain an asset. They may be at the point with Kuznetsov where futures and cap space is enough of a return. The bigger barrier may be expanding the teams he'd accept being dealt to. The threat of being left unprotected and potentially selected by Seattle has to be used as leverage in the coming days. Maybe he's comfortable waiting them out but I'd work that angle if I'm Mac. If he's not moved by then I can see them not protecting him and seeing what happens. I don't doubt they're at that point. It's unfortunate that one of their key players likely has negligible value. They bear a lot of responsibility in how it's played out. It's salvaging time because I doubt they're interested in being patient and building back up his value.

They do need to focus more on younger UFAs, pace and upside but given their cap constraints they mostly need value and Suter could provide it. That was the argument in favor of Chara and ultimately they did net an asset for Siegenthaler. They can't lose the overall vision in the hunt for value and depth but Suter is a better fit than Chara was. I'd consider a lot of situations where particularly a younger UFA replaces someone under contract that's moved for an asset. It may realistically be the best route to restructure. I don't know if they're that desperate for picks and better organizational depth but it's a helpful perk while shaking it up if it can be done. This is probably going to be a fairly old and mediocre team no matter what. If all they're interested in doing is mainly tweaking beyond 92 then doing so while getting younger and/or gaining some assets is a decent strategy. They do still have some contender status as a UFA destination so managing to leverage it may be one of their few remaining strengths to lean on. I don't expect massive changes but it's an area they should continue to exploit for as long as it's available. They need to be selective but it should be a key part of being able to stay relevant.

A couple of related scenarios, previously mentioned BMAC have discussions with Francis/Kraken regarding Oshie being traded there only if Seattle selects Dillon in the expansion draft. Hakstol coached Oshie at UND and Hakstol has come out and said that the team will be looking for speed, tenacity and grit in the expansion draft. Oshie and Dillon don't have the speed but Oshie definitely has tenacity and grit and Dillon has some of that as well. Caps gain over 9 mil in cap room and some picks.

The other scenario would be if Seattle takes Vanecek. BMAC then opts to trade Kuznetsov to Las Vegas for Fleury, Krebs and Glass as well as the NJ 2nd round pick this year. Vegas gets their 1C that everyone feels they are lacking. Caps get Fleury and his 7 mil for one year plus two high end center prospects and a pick.

 

[Melkor]

Landeskog and the Avs "not even close" to an extension, per Dreger, and unless Colorado changes their offer significantly Landeskog will go to market. Could just be a negotiating tactic by Landeskog's camp but Colorado has cap issues so maybe there's fire to that smoke. Washington would almost certainly have to lose Oshie to Seattle to make it work and even then probably dump another contract but I'd love to have him in DC. I love Osh but Landeskog would be a perfect fit in the top six now and he's young enough at 28 to still be effective when McMichael/Protas/Lapierre all graduate (assuming they all graduate).

Smart by the Avs. Landeskog approaching 30 and is not exactly a point producing forward if he's not a part of a powerhouse. He's a complimentary power forward and if they're not even close in negotiations that means his ask is through the roof. Avs are in the middle of their contending window, that contract might sink them faster than they would like.They did the right thing a couple of years ago offering 12 to Panarin, he would have taken them to another level but he preferred bright lights of NYC to winning.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Expecting Seattle to take Vanecek unless Oshie is somehow left unprotected. Then Dillon traded to Vancouver and Suter to sign here to join the retirement crew.

I don't think they trade Kuznetsov because of the lack of options to replace him.

What if the Caps traded Kuznetsov to the Avs for Landeskog, as long as the Caps can work out a contract deal with Landeskog?

 

[txpd]

What if the Caps traded Kuznetsov to the Avs for Landeskog, as long as the Caps can work out a contract deal with Landeskog?

Landy isnt a center

 

[Calicaps]

Landy isnt a center

OK. Then McKinnon.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

OK. Then McKinnon.

sold, see the cashier, no takebacks!!

 

[Melkor]

What if the Caps traded Kuznetsov to the Avs for Landeskog, as long as the Caps can work out a contract deal with Landeskog?

What's the point of trading for Landeskog anyways?

 

[Hivemind]

What if the Caps traded Kuznetsov to the Avs for Landeskog, as long as the Caps can work out a contract deal with Landeskog?

This makes zero sense.
Either the Avs are able to work out a new deal with their captain (or already have and are simply waiting until after the expansion draft to announce it), in which case they won’t trade him, or Landy’s an UFA in which case why would the Capitals give up Kuzy for his negotiation rights? That would be the most expensive UFA rights deal in the history of the NHL by an order of magnitude. Even the best UFAs get like a 3rd round pick for their negotiation rights.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He dominates at the face off dot, and has been just under a PPG guy the last 2 years and he has 45 points in 49 playoff games….….seems like an easy answer aside from the position difference.

 

[hockeykicker]

The Capitals are also a possibility for Tarasenko, with the rumored one-for-one swap for Evgeny Kuznetsov being the Caps’ preferred choice. But in addition to Kuznetsov’s off-ice issues, the 29-year-old center is under contract for four more seasons (two more than Tarasenko) at a $7.8 million AAV ($300,000 more than Tarasenko).

 

[Lindemann]

I want Kuzy gone but this would be a trash trade

if we do this, this must mean Kuzy has a trash reputation around the league

 

[Corby78]

Tarasenko would be awful. Unless he is going to sit out the season and only play in the playoffs.