Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 1

[txpd]

It doesn't matter what DSP wants. Barring an offer sheet from another team (in which the Capitals would have been compensated with draft picks), the Capitals can ultimately just take him to salary arbitration. I wouldn't expect that arb value to be incredibly high.

ok...so, would you like to offer a reason why MacLellan passed on DSP?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

$20mm over 5 years for Tommy Tom Tom?

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

$20mm over 5 years for Tommy Tom Tom?

I don't think he'd sign for that low of a AAV.

 

[Calicaps]

I don't think he'd sign for that low of a AAV.

Ditto. I say $25-30 over 5

 

[Hivemind]

ok...so, would you like to offer a reason why MacLellan passed on DSP?

It baffles me, for the most part. The conclusion that @HunterSThompson and @NobodyBeatsTheWiz reached seems the most likely. GMBM simply doesn't want DSP back on the roster unless DSP is willing to sign an absurdly cheap deal (under arbitration value).

 

[artilector]

I'm also now starting to be afraid that they're going to give a botload of money to Tom Wilson.

Yeah, that seems like a possibility.

Just how high would it have to be in order to require shedding DSP? 5.5M x 6?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I don't think he'd sign for that low of a AAV.

You think he gets a significantly higher AAV than Lars?

 

[Hivemind]

$25M guaranteed money for a player with barely over 100 career points in five seasons seems like a lot. If they wanted to play hardball, they could go to arbitration and still have another chance at an RFA contract before Wilson hits UFA market. I don't know if I like that strategy, as he could be more expensive next off-season than he is this year. But I like it more than paying what he would cost next off-season right now. Sign him to a deal that should appreciate in value, not one that pays for his full potential. Basically sign him to the same type of contract that Carlson is just now emerging from.

 

[artilector]

You think he gets a significantly higher AAV than Lars?

Stranger things have happened.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

So, spit-balling that they're actually looking to do something in UFA. Here's a "don't bring the band back together" roster, filled with only QO and call-ups:

Roster Size	Salary Cap	Cap Hit	Other	Bonuses	Cap Space
22	$79,500,000	$74,510,961	$82,500	$782,500	$4,989,039

[THEAD] [/THEAD]

Delete Created or Signed Player

Place on LTIR (Rookie-mode )

Place on LTIR (Pro-mode )

Buyout

Add to Trade

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Ovechkin, Alex $9,538,462 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 3	Kuznetsov, Evgeny $7,800,000 C UFA - 7	Wilson, Tom $4,500,000 RW RFA
Vrána, Jakub $863,333 LW RFA - 1	Bäckström, Nicklas $6,700,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Connolly, Brett $1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Burakovsky, André $3,000,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Eller, Lars $3,500,000 C UFA - 5	Oshie, T.J. $5,750,000 RW M-NTC UFA - 7
Jonsson-Fjällby, Axel $860,000 LW RFA - 3	Stephenson, Chandler $650,000 C RFA - 1	Boyd, Travis $715,000 C RFA
Walker, Nathan $650,000 LW RFA - 1

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Orlov, Dmitry $5,100,000 D UFA - 5	Niskanen, Matt $5,750,000 D M-NTC UFA - 3	Holtby, Braden $6,100,000 M-NTC UFA - 2
Djoos, Christian $650,000 D RFA - 1	Carlson, John $8,000,000 D M-NTC UFA - 8 ↑ ↓	Copley, Pheonix $650,000 UFA - 1
Siegenthaler, Jonas $714,166 D RFA - 2	Bowey, Madison $787,500 D RFA
Ness, Aaron $650,000 D UFA - 1

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Functionally over $5M in cap space, when sending the player down that a UFA would replace. With the potential to gain another ~$1M if you want to keep the roster at 20 and have yo-yo players for injuries.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

You think he gets a significantly higher AAV than Lars?

By a million or so, yes. Roughly the same production this year, but the Cap is higher and Wilson plays on the top line.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It baffles me, for the most part. The conclusion that @HunterSThompson and @NobodyBeatsTheWiz reached seems the most likely. GMBM simply doesn't want DSP back on the roster unless DSP is willing to sign an absurdly cheap deal (under arbitration value).

Maybe he views DSP the same way he viewed Trotz. Unlikely to replicate prior success and unwilling to pay for prior accomplishments. Let's also remind ourselves that he, Chiasson, and Beagle had the worst possession metrics on the team and that DSP is historically a player who gets buried in possession metrics (career: 44.7%, 2018: 44.4%). In addition to his possession troubles, he shot 24.1% during the postseason which is up from 6.8% in the regular season (career shooting %: 8.5). It could be that GMBM is just not letting nostalgia and the glow of the Cup cloud his decision making process on how to retool the roster moving forward, and with the return of all top 9 forwards to the team maybe he wants some new blood fighting for spots on his 4th line.

 

[artilector]

$25M guaranteed money for a player with barely over 100 career points in five seasons seems like a lot. If they wanted to play hardball, they could go to arbitration and still have another chance at an RFA contract before Wilson hits UFA market. I don't know if I like that strategy, as he could be more expensive next off-season than he is this year. But I like it more than paying what he would cost next off-season right now. Sign him to a deal that should appreciate in value, not one that pays for his full potential. Basically sign him to the same type of contract that Carlson is just now emerging from.

Yeah, what's the point of having RFA rights if you intend to pay Wilson close to what he'd get as a UFA? You can always do that... later.
Also, the cap situation is likely to continue to be tight in the foreseeable future, so overpaying early on can cost you another valuable player in a year or two...

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Hivemind]

Maybe he views DSP the same way he viewed Trotz. Unlikely to replicate prior success and unwilling to pay for prior accomplishments. Let's also remind ourselves that he, Chiasson, and Beagle had the worst possession metrics on the team and that DSP is historically a player who gets buried in possession metrics (career: 44.7%, 2018: 44.4%). In addition to his possession troubles, he shot 24.1% during the postseason which is up from 6.8% in the regular season (career shooting %: 8.5). It could be that GMBM is just not letting nostalgia and the glow of the Cup cloud his decision making process on how to retool the roster moving forward, and with the return of all top 9 forwards to the team maybe he wants some new blood fighting for spots on his 4th line.

I get the notion of not overpaying for past accomplishments (I've espoused it multiple times in the past couple weeks). It just seems weird to shed a cost controlled 4th liner like DSP, especially with as much other turnover expected in both the bottom six and PK units.


It's unlikely that DSP's next contract would have been so valuable that he'd look particularly egregious sitting in the press box, should he be jumped by younger players.

 

[HunterSThompson]

they already did the bridge deal

Yeah, I just mean as in the 2-3 year length.

 

[txpd]

It baffles me, for the most part. The conclusion that @HunterSThompson and @NobodyBeatsTheWiz reached seems the most likely. GMBM simply doesn't want DSP back on the roster unless DSP is willing to sign an absurdly cheap deal (under arbitration value).

Yea. Something like that. Lets say that MacLellan has a reasonable idea of what his Arbitration award would be. What is better for the player. To be available on July 1 as a UFA or to become a UFA after the team walks away from the arbitration award? Its my view that DSP's agent has presented their desires and that they are not close to the salary cap structure that MacLellan is working with. The only way they reup him is if there isn't a UFA market for him.

 

[Hivemind]

Yea. Something like that. Lets say that MacLellan has a reasonable idea of what his Arbitration award would be. What is better for the player. To be available on July 1 as a UFA or to become a UFA after the team walks away from the arbitration award? Its my view that DSP's agent has presented their desires and that they are not close to the salary cap structure that MacLellan is working with. The only way they reup him is if there isn't a UFA market for him.

The team cannot walk away from arbitration awards under $4M. There's no way he's getting anywhere near that figure. The Capitals can absolutely afford basically anything DSP is awarded in abritration. This just seems much more like they don't want to.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah, I just mean as in the 2-3 year length.

2-3 year length would be a poor choice for the Capitals, as it would carry him directly to UFA status. He will hit UFA after his age 26 season because of 7 seasons in the NHL. So the Capitals can either sign him to a 1 year deal (presumably via arbitration) or go longer term.

 

[txpd]

The team cannot walk away from arbitration awards under $4M. There's no way he's getting anywhere near that figure. The Capitals can absolutely afford basically anything DSP is awarded in abritration. This just seems much more like they don't want to.

Well, then that makes even more sense. If the Caps are stuck with a $2.5m award, I can easily see that they have no cap space to make that work or anything like that. Like I said. They didn't QO him because they didn't want to be obligated to him beyond what they have budgeted.

 

[HunterSThompson]

So for the prospect watchers, Adam Carlson, Adam Chapie and Tim McGauley also do not get QOs.

 

[strungout]

Yeah I was going to bring up the Connelly thing.

Aint worried about it either way.

 

[HunterSThompson]

2-3 year length would be a poor choice for the Capitals, as it would carry him directly to UFA status. He will hit UFA after his age 26 season because of 7 seasons in the NHL. So the Capitals can either sign him to a 1 year deal (presumably via arbitration) or go longer term.

I agree but its either 2-3 years at something more manageable and maybe lose him to free agency then or long-term and maybe overpay him if he doesn't grow from here. You already said you would be cautious with a long-term deal and are afraid of it for Wilson. Short term is the alternative. Yes a one year deal is always an option.

Either way, I was saying they would avoid the short-term deal anywho.