Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign D Tyler Myers to 5-Year, $30m Deal ($6m AAV)

[PuckMunchkin]

Just looking at the AAV of players contracts ignores two large factors that determine the size of players contracts: when the contracts were signed & was the player a RFA or a UFA? Instead of looking at the AAV to determine what pairing a players pay grade is referencing the percentage of the salary cap when signed is a more accurate number. Myers ranks 39th in CAP hit % and that doesn't take into account that he was a UFA. I know they play different positions but compare the RFA contract that Boesers camp wants at 7M to the UFA contract that Kevin Hayes got at 7.14M. I would much prefer Boeser to Hayes and it highlights that UFA's generally get paid more than RFA's.

That is all true.

Still, anyway you look at it, you are paying 6 mil per for a player that is trending down and is a 4th / 5th D man as it stands.

He will be yet another player that we cannot trade for anything. That is the biggest downfall of this management. They are unable to sign players to team friendly contracts. Bo Horvat being the exception.

 

[Hit the post]

That is all true.

Still, anyway you look at it, you are paying 6 mil per for a player that is trending down and is a 4th / 5th D man as it stands.

He will be yet another player that we cannot trade for anything. That is the biggest downfall of this management. They are unable to sign players to team friendly contracts. Bo Horvat being the exception.

At least he'll be better than Guds. Better a has been than a never was. Granted, we're talking about a pretty low bar. At least we didn't give up a McCann + high 2nd round pick to sign him

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

That is all true.

Still, anyway you look at it, you are paying 6 mil per for a player that is trending down and is a 4th / 5th D man as it stands.

He will be yet another player that we cannot trade for anything. That is the biggest downfall of this management. They are unable to sign players to team friendly contracts. Bo Horvat being the exception.

Trending down?..last season was his second highest point output in his career..He's 29..not 33.

So ...unless you want to give up assets/picks/prospects off of your team...How do you acquire a top 4 d-man?...Pick one off of the 'top 4 d-man,with a team friendly contract ' tree?

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

The easiest way, IMO, is to pull off a really quick retool on the fly and be a 100 point playoff team. I can’t remember, did anyone say anything like that a few years ago?

It also wouldn’t hurt to have decent pro scouting and maybe even have someone on your team whose job it is to examine the cap — not just for your team but also others — and identify when teams might have to give up promising talent.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Trending down?..last season was his second highest point output in his career..He's 29..not 33.

Ok you think a 29yr old Myers has his best years ahead of him, I think his best years are behind him.

We will see who is right.

So ...unless you want to give up assets/picks/prospects off of your team...How do you acquire a top 4 d-man?...Pick one off of the 'top 4 d-man,with a team friendly contract ' tree?

That is always the excuse when Jim throws out all his money at some jabronie on july 1st.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Ok you think a 29yr old Myers has his best years ahead of him, I think his best years are behind him.

We will see who is right.



That is always the excuse when Jim throws out all his money at some jabronie on july 1st.

Did I say his best years are ahead of him?..No..,just merely pointed out that he had his second best career year last year (as in he's' not washed up yet)..You still didnt answer my question?

 

[Upoil]

Did I say his best years are ahead of him?..No..,just merely pointed out that he had his second best career year last year (as in he's' not washed up yet)..You still didnt answer my question?

View attachment 251419

Trending down?..last season was his second highest point output in his career..He's 29..not 33.

So ...unless you want to give up assets/picks/prospects off of your team...How do you acquire a top 4 d-man?...Pick one off of the 'top 4 d-man,with a team friendly contract ' tree?

Check your math? Raw points last year was his 4th highest season. PPG last year was his 7th.

	GP	Pts	PPG
2009/10	82	48	0.59
2010/11	80	37	0.46
2011/12	55	23	0.42
2012/13	39	8	0.21
2013/14	62	22	0.35
2014/15	71	28	0.39
2015/16	73	26	0.36
2016/17	11	5	0.45
2017/18	82	36	0.44
2018/19	80	29	0.36

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Check your math? Raw points last year was his 4th highest season. PPG last year was his 7th.

	GP	Pts	PPG
2009/10	82	48	0.59
2010/11	80	37	0.46
2011/12	55	23	0.42
2012/13	39	8	0.21
2013/14	62	22	0.35
2014/15	71	28	0.39
2015/16	73	26	0.36
2016/17	11	5	0.45
2017/18	82	36	0.44
2018/19	80	29	0.36

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Fair enough..4th highest point total in 11 seasons,,..Its still not an obvious drop-off...

 

[F A N]

Check your math? Raw points last year was his 4th highest season. PPG last year was his 7th.

	GP	Pts	PPG
2009/10	82	48	0.59
2010/11	80	37	0.46
2011/12	55	23	0.42
2012/13	39	8	0.21
2013/14	62	22	0.35
2014/15	71	28	0.39
2015/16	73	26	0.36
2016/17	11	5	0.45
2017/18	82	36	0.44
2018/19	80	29	0.36

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Last season he also had 9 goals instead of the 6 he had the previous season.

 

[megatron]

Fair enough..4th highest point total in 11 seasons,,..Its still not an obvious drop-off...

And you just want to gloss over 7th highest PPG and cherry pick point total instead? He's on the downward slope of the bell curve.

Use the data and draw a conclusion, don't have a conclusion and cherry pick data to support it.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

And you just want to gloss over 7th highest PPG and cherry pick point total instead? He's on the downward slope of the bell curve.

Use the data and draw a conclusion, don't have a conclusion and cherry pick data to support it.

Looks to me like he's consistently around the .036 mark..With more favourable deployment on the Canucks than the Jets,..there's no reason why he cannot match or exceed his point totals.

 

[F A N]

And you just want to gloss over 7th highest PPG and cherry pick point total instead? He's on the downward slope of the bell curve.

Use the data and draw a conclusion, don't have a conclusion and cherry pick data to support it.

Where are you seeing the bell curve? Take out the 11 game sample and he had a higher than average PPG two seasons ago. But we're talking about a 5 point difference from last season.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Myers is on the downward slope of the bell curve....apparently......!

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Did I say his best years are ahead of him?..No..,just merely pointed out that he had his second best career year last year (as in he's' not washed up yet)..You still didnt answer my question?

View attachment 251419

Oh it was a serious question that you want me to answer? I'll play your game..

Subban trade
Jokiharju trade
de Haan trade

Tim Heed ufa
Jake Gardiner ufa
Ben Hutton ufa


I would have any of these guys over Myers when contract is considered.

Im glad that you at least agree that Myers wont be getting any better. Now if you only followed the rest of the league so you would know that he isnt that great to begin with.

 

[megatron]

Where are you seeing the bell curve? Take out the 11 game sample and he had a higher than average PPG two seasons ago. But we're talking about a 5 point difference from last season.

Sorry, I should have specified. Age as the independant variable vs PPG as the dependant. So due to age Myers is on the downward slope. I believe the peak is around 25 years old for forwards and around 27 years of age for a defense.

Myers is on the downward slope of the bell curve....apparently......!View attachment 251635

Perhaps the graph below can illustrate the point (credit to someone else, its not my graph).

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Sorry, I should have specified. Age as the independant variable vs PPG as the dependant. So due to age Myers is on the downward slope. I believe the peak is around 25 years old for forwards and around 27 years of age for a defense.



Perhaps the graph below can illustrate the point (credit to someone else, its not my graph).

That graph looks like a' general' points per game per player...is it specific to Tyler Myers as in post #782..?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Oh it was a serious question that you want me to answer? I'll play your game..

Subban trade
Jokiharju trade
de Haan trade

Tim Heed ufa
Jake Gardiner ufa
Ben Hutton ufa


I would have any of these guys over Myers when contract is considered.

Im glad that you at least agree that Myers wont be getting any better. Now if you only followed the rest of the league so you would know that he isnt that great to begin with.

Subban at $9M x 3 years...That would make our cap interesting wouldnt it..?..(especially in 2 years time when its payday for EP and QH)..His play last season wasn't exactly stellar....It would also mean no Micheal Ferland.(who is on a fair deal)...

Jokiharju..?...Chicago easily got the best player in that deal..If Nylander can regain his swagger, its a massive win for them...What does Jokiharju top out as ?..a good 3rd pairing D-man.

Tim Heed..depth defence man..borderline NHL/AHL player

De Haan has limited offensive skill, not what we need at all.

Jake Gardiner..plays the left side..How much $ does he want ?...would he even play in Vancouver..?

Ben Hutton... inconsistent bottom pairing d-man with limited offensive skills who will most likely take a haircut on his next payday..Canucks were 100% correct in letting him walk.

I bet Myers exceeds his last years total..He's going to be given every opportunity here...

 

[Pip]

And if he doesn’t I’m sure you’ll have a boatload of excuses ready

 

[megatron]

That graph looks like a' general' points per game per player...is it specific to Tyler Myers as in post #782..?

The graph is aggregated data. It illustrates, as mentioned above, that due to age Myers is on the downward slope. Now that doesnt mean he can have an outlier season, but its a good bet that his ppg over the previous 5 years will be higher than his 5 years with the Canucks.
The above is based upon real data, its not based upon hope and feeling. But I would agree with you that ofcourse the data may show different outcomes if we get more granular with the variables. Eg player who went to new team and was given more PP time or something of that nature.

 

[Askel]

And if he doesn’t I’m sure you’ll have a boatload of excuses ready

Of course the does. Last offseason it was Beagle is an elite 4th liner that these guys argued, Canucks needed to overpay for that. Those 13 pts and being outscored at a 2:1 ratio sure was elite.

This year its Myers and that its ok 6 million because he was an UFA, not that its bad to overpay players?

 

[timw33]

Subban at $9M x 3 years...That would make our cap interesting wouldnt it..?..(especially in 2 years time when its payday for EP and QH)..His play last season wasn't exactly stellar....It would also mean no Micheal Ferland.(who is on a fair deal)...

Jokiharju..?...Chicago easily got the best player in that deal..If Nylander can regain his swagger, its a massive win for them...What does Jokiharju top out as ?..a good 3rd pairing D-man.

Tim Heed..depth defence man..borderline NHL/AHL player

De Haan has limited offensive skill, not what we need at all.

Jake Gardiner..plays the left side..How much $ does he want ?...would he even play in Vancouver..?

Ben Hutton... inconsistent bottom pairing d-man with limited offensive skills who will most likely take a haircut on his next payday..Canucks were 100% correct in letting him walk.

I bet Myers exceeds his last years total..He's going to be given every opportunity here...

We pay Eriksson and Beagle $9MM for the next 3 years too, and they literally add nothing to our roster.

Heed put up .35ppg in 14:22 ATOI (Mylers .38PPG in 20:22 for references sake) and costs less than $1MM on a 1 year deal.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Subban at $9M x 3 years...That would make our cap interesting wouldnt it..?..(especially in 2 years time when its payday for EP and QH)..His play last season wasn't exactly stellar....It would also mean no Micheal Ferland.(who is on a fair deal)...

Jokiharju..?...Chicago easily got the best player in that deal..If Nylander can regain his swagger, its a massive win for them...What does Jokiharju top out as ?..a good 3rd pairing D-man.

Tim Heed..depth defence man..borderline NHL/AHL player

De Haan has limited offensive skill, not what we need at all.

Jake Gardiner..plays the left side..How much $ does he want ?...would he even play in Vancouver..?

Ben Hutton... inconsistent bottom pairing d-man with limited offensive skills who will most likely take a haircut on his next payday..Canucks were 100% correct in letting him walk.

I bet Myers exceeds his last years total..He's going to be given every opportunity here...

All of them will be on better contracts than what Myers is on now.

And you will defend Myers no matter what the reality will be.

edit. I would much rather have Subban than Miller / Ferland + Myers.

 

[F A N]

Sorry, I should have specified. Age as the independant variable vs PPG as the dependant. So due to age Myers is on the downward slope. I believe the peak is around 25 years old for forwards and around 27 years of age for a defense.

Perhaps the graph below can illustrate the point (credit to someone else, its not my graph).

The graph is aggregated data. It illustrates, as mentioned above, that due to age Myers is on the downward slope. Now that doesnt mean he can have an outlier season, but its a good bet that his ppg over the previous 5 years will be higher than his 5 years with the Canucks.
The above is based upon real data, its not based upon hope and feeling. But I would agree with you that ofcourse the data may show different outcomes if we get more granular with the variables. Eg player who went to new team and was given more PP time or something of that nature.

So you are using a generalized age curve and try to apply it to Myers? It's also kind of deceiving as you're not using Myers numbers at all and you're magnifying the difference between ~0.38 PPG an ~0.45 PPG to show a steep bell curve where the difference over 82 games is like 5 points.

I mean sure, the wheels come off sometime. But many players hit their peak in their early mid 20s then suffer a gradual decline into their 30s before suffering a steeper decline. In Myers case there isn't anything to suggest that he's reached the steep decline phase. Sure given the same ice time, opportunities, and quality of linemates he's not expected to produce more than he did in his previous seasons but that doesn't mean that he can't maintain close to the level of play he's displayed over the next 5 seasons and have an outlier thrown in.

Myers will be 34 at the end of his contract. Maybe he suffers a steep decline well before his contract ends or maybe he manages to maintain his play throughout most of his contract and then declines more sharply in his last season. It's anyone's guess how players decline once they enter their 30s but I'm not sure you can be successful by refusing to pay players into their 30s as a policy.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

We pay Eriksson and Beagle $9MM for the next 3 years too, and they literally add nothing to our roster.

Heed put up .35ppg in 14:22 ATOI (Mylers .38PPG in 20:22 for references sake) and costs less than $1MM on a 1 year deal.

You can insert any roster player player on the Canucks along wit LE’s and the numbers look bad.

Heed looks like he bounces up and down from the AHL..He’s like an Alex Biega level.

 

[Upoil]

What's the point?

When somebody brings up an argument, like Myers won't regress due to his age because last year he had his second highest point total, and then that argument is exhibited to be patently false but the introduction of verifiable information doesn't even phase the 'argument' there is zero point in continuing the conversation.

There is nothing anyone can say or demonstrate that will change some peoples opinions. New information or points of view aren't (or can't be?) incorporated into their view. Differing views or contradictory information is dismissed as inconsequential or not relevant. "Sure it wasn't Myers second highest point total but he had more goals than last year!" or "It's 4th instead of 2nd? That doesn't change anything - even though I can't look up simple numbers my point is still valid! There is no reflection on my opinion even though the facts that I used to reach that opinion were flawed!"

If you take a stance on any subject and you can't think of a single thing that would change your mind your stance is non-falsifiable and there is no point in discussing it. It won't be a discussion - it'll be a sermon.