Proposal: Canucks re-tool

[GirardSpinorama]

There's nothing mythic about a 27 year old being a young man, lol. He's just as close to 25 as he is to 30. Good grief.

In the NHL, 27 is basically middle age.

 

[Gurglesons]

That Horvat deal seems really cheap.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

In the NHL, 27 is basically middle age.

Crazy how many people still hold on to that belief a players prime years are like 27-31.

Those years are long, long gone. In part to the fact prospects and young players simply don't get 4-5 years to develop anymore. Young players are entering the league younger, in bigger roles, and having bigger impacts straight out of the gates.

And it's happening because young kids are simply getting better(More strict training and dedication from a younger age) and because management's across the league have seen the stats and know exactly where the league is headed, so they're buying into ten fold.

 

[Canuck86]

Evidently


I like Horvat and want Colorado to trade for him and would even pay a hefty price, but calling him young is just flat out wrong. He's at the end of his prime, has probably 1-2 years left before regression begins. Just a question of how significant that regression is.

Was kadri regression during his tenure with the Avs that ended when he was 31?

In the last 2 years Horvat has been moved on the PP to a bumper position and seen his goal scoring increasing. He is not a play making Center but he is a workhorse in the faceoff circle with decent FO% stats. If Horvat signed a 7 yr deal with a team his contract would end when he is 34...not into his late 30s like JT Miller or Kadri.

I think Horvat can be an effective player into his mid 30s, but a 60-70pt player most likely maybe a bit higher in the earlier years and in the 50s near the end. But who knows, if it is with a new team we won't know what his production will be like until he plays for them.

I prefer seeing Horvat go to Carolina over Colorado. Avs just don't have the prime asset Canucks should be looking for in a young RHD and Newhook I hope progresses but who knows what he will fully turn into but it is a risk for him to be the prime asset in return

That Horvat deal seems really cheap.

which one is that, hard to keep up or not get confused what thread I see certain info in

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

WAR in hockey is such a f***ed up stat. It's great for baseball, where's it's super easy to isolate a player from the rest of his teammates, but in hockey? Much more muddled. I hate how it's become the go to for peoples arguments.

Yet some people, like what's his face, think it is the be all end all. I saw a WAR stat that suggested EP is better than McDavid... that will never happen, and I'm a HUGE Pettersson fan.

Was kadri regression during his tenure with the Avs that ended when he was 31?

In the last 2 years Horvat has been moved on the PP to a bumper position and seen his goal scoring increasing. He is not a play making Center but he is a workhorse in the faceoff circle with decent FO% stats. If Horvat signed a 7 yr deal with a team his contract would end when he is 34...not into his late 30s like JT Miller or Kadri.

I think Horvat can be an effective player into his mid 30s, but a 60-70pt player most likely maybe a bit higher in the earlier years and in the 50s near the end. But who knows, if it is with a new team we won't know what his production will be like until he plays for them.

I prefer seeing Horvat go to Carolina over Colorado. Avs just don't have the prime asset Canucks should be looking for in a young RHD and Newhook I hope progresses but who knows what he will fully turn into but it is a risk for him to be the prime asset in return


which one is that, hard to keep up or not get confused what thread I see certain info in

Dude, don't bother with Pierce. He thinks WAR is all that matters in hockey.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Keep holding onto that myth

View attachment 607987



The cliff dive starts at 28.


Obviously not every player is the same, there's always exceptions to the rules. But those exceptions go both ways, for every player that holds on for a few extra years beyond 28 before regressing, another players cliff dive has them out of the league by 31.


EDIT: You dont even understand the concept of regression actually, upon reading your post more closely

I don’t understand this graph. As I see it, it indicates every subsequent year is worse than the year immediately preceding it.

There's nothing mythic about a 27 year old being a young man, lol. He's just as close to 25 as he is to 30. Good grief.

He’s just as close to 24 as he is to 29 too?

 

[GeeoffBrown]

If you make that trade for Horvat, you may as well just call it a full rebuild.

You have to get Newhook or some other asset for a young C that is scoring like he is.

Or target something based around Girard? Although having a D pairing with an average height of 5'4" is probably not ideal.

Horvat is a pending UFA, so unless they can re-sign him, they have to trade him or they're pooched.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Was kadri regression during his tenure with the Avs that ended when he was 31?

Exceptions to the rules happen. As I have said multiple times. One random good year doesn't change anything.

Plus, I can just as easily find countless examples of players on the flip side of that argument. Tyler Seguin is an exception to the rule on the other side, for example.

I also have said that contract years are always dangerous to put much value into. You can never underestimate money as a motivation tool.

 

[Irie]

Crazy how many people still hold on to that belief a players prime years are like 27-31.

Those years are long, long gone. In part to the fact prospects and young players simply don't get 4-5 years to develop anymore. Young players are entering the league younger, in bigger roles, and having bigger impacts straight out of the gates.

And it's happening because young kids are simply getting better(More strict training and dedication from a younger age) and because management's across the league have seen the stats and know exactly where the league is headed, so they're buying into ten fold.

A lot of people hold to that idea because for a lot of players it turns out to be true. 6 of last year's top 12 scorers were 28-31 in age and they had statistically the best seasons of their careers.

A lot of career productivity is influenced by injuries, and all players have different development to age curves, so when we discuss peak and prime, the results vary greatly from one player to the next.

 

[Gurglesons]

Was kadri regression during his tenure with the Avs that ended when he was 31?

In the last 2 years Horvat has been moved on the PP to a bumper position and seen his goal scoring increasing. He is not a play making Center but he is a workhorse in the faceoff circle with decent FO% stats. If Horvat signed a 7 yr deal with a team his contract would end when he is 34...not into his late 30s like JT Miller or Kadri.

I think Horvat can be an effective player into his mid 30s, but a 60-70pt player most likely maybe a bit higher in the earlier years and in the 50s near the end. But who knows, if it is with a new team we won't know what his production will be like until he plays for them.

I prefer seeing Horvat go to Carolina over Colorado. Avs just don't have the prime asset Canucks should be looking for in a young RHD and Newhook I hope progresses but who knows what he will fully turn into but it is a risk for him to be the prime asset in return


which one is that, hard to keep up or not get confused what thread I see certain info in

The one in the thread started.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don’t understand this graph. As I see it, it indicates every subsequent year is worse than the year immediately preceding it.

He’s just as close to 24 as he is to 29 too?

That's pretty much exactly it.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

A lot of people hold to that idea because for a lot of players it turns out to be true. 6 of last year's top 12 scorers were 28-31 in age and they had statistically the best seasons of their careers.

A lot of career productivity is influenced by injuries, and all players have different development to age curves, so when we discuss peak and prime, the results vary greatly from one player to the next.

Raw production is a terrible stat for this exact reason.

For one, it doesn't account for defensive ability whatsoever.

And two, you simply can't compare the scoring rates of players today from the scoring rates of players from say 7-8 years ago.


Jamie Benn won the Art Ross trophy in 2015 with 87 points. Last year 19 different players had more points then that.

You're basically comparing two completely different leagues at that point.


Which is also why stats like WAR, GSVA, SPAR, etc are significantly better stats then simply using production.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Did you miss Stillman and Rathbones games?

I have but neither of them have been regulars per se.

And as bad as they have been, I think Myers has an argument for being as bad or worse.

 

[Irie]

Raw production is a terrible stat for this exact reason.

For one, it doesn't account for defensive ability whatsoever.

And two, you simply can't compare the scoring rates of players today from the scoring rates of players from say 7-8 years ago.


Jamie Benn won the Art Ross trophy in 2015 with 87 points. Last year 19 different players had more points then that.

You're basically comparing two completely different leagues at that point.


Which is also why stats like WAR, GSVA, SPAR, etc are significantly better stats then simply using production.

We can look at studies to determine age averages for peak performance in different areas, and it is true that most athletes hit their performance peak at 24-27, but being slightly faster or quicker is a small advantage to being smarter and having better hockey sense.

All players are going too have different peak ages, and roping them all into a 3 year window as their "best years" is not going to work for half of the league.

Some players are flat out more effective at 30 than they were at 26. Some guys have injuries or other issues and their games tail off considerably at 28.

It can not be stated as fact that players are all going to be worse after they hit 28. It just is not true.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

We can look at studies to determine age averages for peak performance in different areas, and it is true that most athletes hit their performance peak at 24-27, but being slightly faster or quicker is a small advantage to being smarter and having better hockey sense.

All players are going too have different peak ages, and roping them all into a 3 year window as their "best years" is not going to work for half of the league.

Some players are flat out more effective at 30 than they were at 26. Some guys have injuries or other issues and their games tail off considerably at 28.

It can not be stated as fact that players are all going to be worse after they hit 28. It just is not true.

Then I guess it's a good thing I have literally said countless times in this thread that exceptions to the rule happen.

However, it is absolutely a fact(As the evidence shows) that on average most players peak at about 28.

 

[Irie]

Then I guess it's a good thing I have literally said countless times in this thread that exceptions to the rule happen.

However, it is absolutely a fact(As the evidence shows) that on average most players peak at about 28.

Except your noted extreme exception is a guy that had multiple hip surgeries.

You said "it's crazy that people still think players prime years are 27-31".

I don't think many, if any, really say that on these boards. If anything, I think the younger posters tend to think anyone over 26 is ready to be put out to pasture.

I personally think that most guys tend to peak between 26-28 (earlier for forwards, later for D and goalies), which I think is later than a lot of posters would agree with. But that is based on a big underlying factor that has been ignored here, and it is that most players that have played in the league for 5+ years sustain some sort of major injury. The guys that are lucky and go through their 20s avoiding injuries more often than not are extremely productive well into their 30s - the exception being guys who's games revolve around speed. They have to adapt, or they tend to drop off a bit more than others.

For the record, I was never arguing with you that most players peak at 27-31, just that some will and we have to look at every player and situation differently. But looking at stats from different seasons playing with different linemates and teams around them under different coaching and systems and likely in different roles is not a better way to evaluate "primes" than watching the players to determine their effectiveness. Guys like Josi, Miller, Gaudreau and Stamkos played some of their best hockey and they should be on the downside of their prime according to many.

 

[McJedi]

Since Rutherford and Allvin are against blowing this thing up, here is my idea on how the Canucks could free up some cap space moving forward and pick up some picks to try and re-shape the roster

To NYI:
Brock Boeser
Jett Woo

To VAN:
Anthony Beauvillier
Grant Hutton
Samuel Bolduc
2023 2nd round pick

NYI gets their 30 goal scorer to pair with Barzal. Canucks clear 2.5M in cap space moving forward and pick up a lesser roster player, B prospect, late 2nd, and potential Schenn replacement.

To NJD:
Travis Dermott

To VAN:
2024 3rd round pick

NJ upgrades on Brendan Smith. for the 3LD role. Canucks clear up more of the logjam on D. Dermott has been decent for us but the pick is more important at this time.


Now for pure fantasy deals that have no chance in hell in coming to fruition:

To BUF:
Tyler Myers

To VAN:
Future considerations

Buffalo gets to fill the hole on thier RHD in return for their 6M unusued cap space for this season and next.

To COL:
Bo Horvat 1.5M retained

To VAN:
JT Compher
Jean Luc Foudy
2023 1st round pick
2025 2nd round pick

Colorado gets their 2C rental for a B- prospect a late 1st and a distant 2nd.

To FLA:
Tanner Pearson

To VAN:
Nick Cousins
Patrick Hornqvist
2025 3rd round pick

FLA becomes cap compliant when Duclair returns in the next 1-2 months at the cost of 2M next year and a 3rd. Canucks open up 2M cap space next year and pick up a mid pick in exchange for the extra cap created from the previous deals

Take out the 2nd rounder and Bolduc and maybe you’re getting close on Boeser and his bad contract.

Vancouver retains 50% on Horvat and remove the 2nd rounder.