Confirmed with Link: Canucks Re-Sign W Nils Hoglander to 3y/3m AAV Contract

[Shareefruck]

Random pet peeve, but "Why don't you give them the benefit of the doubt? Haven't they earned it?" never seems like a very fair line of questioning/expectation to me, personally.

Benefit of the doubt is something that you choose to extend out of charity/lack of personal confidence IF you want to, not something a person owes based on reputation. If you genuinely feel that something seems unlikely, it feels pretty gross to be urged to appeal to authority/track record instead and reverse that opinion.

 

[pitseleh]

For what it is worth, Garland scored at 0.36 PPG pace at even strength through his age 23 season. Hoglander is at 0.39. Hoglander had a SH% bender last year but so did Garland in his age 23 season - if you regress both to their career averages they’re basically neck and neck.

Garland levelled up in his age 24 season and has been closer to half a point per game at even strength since. If Hoglander can do the same he is hugely valuable on this contract. Even if he doesn’t the contract is probably fair value for what he provides.

But Garland as a better player was a contract the team struggled to move on what was more than a fair contract. Some of that was the flap cap, of course.

 

[Chairman Maouth]

 

[F A N]

Random pet peeve, but "Why don't you give them the benefit of the doubt? Haven't they earned it?" never seems like a very fair line of questioning/expectation to me, personally.

Benefit of the doubt is something that you choose to extend out of charity/lack of personal confidence IF you want to, not something a person owes based on reputation. If you genuinely feel that something seems unlikely, it feels pretty gross to be urged to appeal to authority/track record instead and reverse that opinion.

I think there are a lot of people who have trouble separating between analysis and opinion. We don't have to be judges here and render an opinion we have to support. Benefit of the doubt when extended should be part of the analysis. Like you might be 50/50 or 60/40 on a deal but the decision maker's track record might push things one way. It's like a few years a back, posters here were criticizing management for having tunnel vision for Hughes and failing to understand that it's not a criticism when you have tunnel vision for a player who goes on to win the Norris.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Canucks Even Strength Goals Leaders

1. Miller 25
2. Boeser 24
3. Hoglander 24
4. Pettersson 21
5. Garland 19
6. Joshua 17
7. Hughes 12
8. Suter 12
9. Lafferty 11
10. Mikheyev 11

Tied for 2nd in even strength goals on the team, ahead of Pettersson, and done with less ice time per game. 3M at 3 years for this talented and progressing 23 year old is a steal of a deal for the club.

 

[Regress2TheMeme]

Canucks Even Strength Goals Leaders

1. Miller 25
2. Boeser 24
3. Hoglander 24
4. Pettersson 21
5. Garland 19
6. Joshua 17
7. Hughes 12
8. Suter 12
9. Lafferty 11
10. Mikheyev 11

Tied for 2nd in even strength goals on the team, ahead of Pettersson, and done with less ice time per game. 3M at 3 years for this talented and progressing 23 year old is a steal of a deal for the club.

His goal scoring is undeniable but players can still be a drag on the team despite producing offensively if they get scored on a lot and torpedo your line's ability to drive the play. All of those other guys on the list are better at managing the puck and playing defense. I still agree that the risk of signing Hoglander for 3 x 3 isn't too great.

 

[HairyKneel]

It's going to be *extremely* difficult to go much past his current numbers without getting significant PP production, which likely isn't going to happen. Even if he played with Pettersson all year ... 24 goals again at ES would be pretty solid, expected numbers.

To me the odds that he either a) regresses to the player we saw from 2021-2023 or last year's playoffs or b) even playing at the same level his numbers regress due to SH% and fewer opportunities are *much* higher than the odds of him having some crazy breakout.

I think your points are noted Big Rig

 

[BluesyShoes]

I think the goal with Hoglander isn't necessarily a repeat of last year's even strength scoring. He was invisible and at times a liability in the playoffs--that's where we need the improvement the most. He's got a lot of room to grow his game and identity as a player beyond a forechecker that can finish plays.

The contract security might be the best thing for him, as now he doesn't have to stress about repeating his scoring in a contract year when he should be working on his details and developing. I'll be fine if his goal scoring falls off a bit if he can generate more for his linemates and improve defensively in our own end. Not saying he can be Garland, but compare the two players and I think where Hogs can have more impact as a small, skilled winger without adding goals is pretty clear.

 

[MS]

I think your points are noted Big Rig

I literally said in my last post two days ago that I was stepping away from this one because I didn’t want to just sit here repeating myself arguing with 10 different people.

But thanks for your contribution.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Excited to see where he takes his game to this season! Exciting player to watch, lots of jump and passion and just so skilled and talented.

 

[Ernie]

For what it is worth, Garland scored at 0.36 PPG pace at even strength through his age 23 season. Hoglander is at 0.39. Hoglander had a SH% bender last year but so did Garland in his age 23 season - if you regress both to their career averages they’re basically neck and neck.

Garland levelled up in his age 24 season and has been closer to half a point per game at even strength since. If Hoglander can do the same he is hugely valuable on this contract. Even if he doesn’t the contract is probably fair value for what he provides.

But Garland as a better player was a contract the team struggled to move on what was more than a fair contract. Some of that was the flap cap, of course.

These undersized players are not valued on the trade market despite their contributions.

However, given the arbitration situation, the Canucks can't really squeeze the player. They either pay the price or they move on.

 

[Breakers]

Myers got $9 million and he is 10x the liability

 

[NailsHoglander]

Myers got $9 million and he is 10x the liability

Yeah but he's real long

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Yeah but he's real long

His longness was really effective in the playoffs

I’m not even joking

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

His longness was really effective in the playoffs

I’m not even joking

No, him, Soucy, and Desharnais are pretty legit assets in playoff hockey. It’s a total different league from 15 years ago and it’s quite fascinating.

 

[RobertKron]

McDavid zero shots on goal so far apparently

edit Wrong thread but there's no wrong thread for this so I'll leave it.

 

[ForecheckBackcheck]

Silovs looks pretty solid. Seems we found a bonafide NHL goalie. Even if he doesn't reach the level of a true 60-game starter like Demko, that's a huge win for us.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Just not impressed with Hoglander. Super inconsistent. He started off strong tonight but had a brutal 2nd period. Very bad defensive zone coverages and kept making bad puck decisions throughout.

 

[Vector]

Just not impressed with Hoglander. Super inconsistent. He started off strong tonight but had a brutal 2nd period. Very bad defensive zone coverages and kept making bad puck decisions throughout.

This deal is all about cost control. He’s either a valuable trade asset under control or cheap production as the cap rises.

As I said the day this deal was signed, I think they'll use him as an asset. NHL teams LOVE acquiring young NHLers when selling off a different player.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Canuck for life.

 

[MS]

Has done nothing so far to make the early commit from the team seem like a good bet.

 

[Nuckles]

S% down to 11.1%, 2 goals and 5 points in 13 games, on pace for 13 goals and 32 assists, and as I suspected he'll probably drop down to the 4th line once Joshua is healthy and gotten some games in.

 

[God]

Has done nothing so far to make the early commit from the team seem like a good bet.

I know they wanted to reward him for showing up as one of the fittest players at training camp, but his position on the team was already tenuous with his defensive lapses and it doesn't seem to have gotten better.

Still think there's something there, but the next contract (if this continues) looks to be more like 2-2.5M AAV if it were signed a few months down the road.

 

[VanJack]

My only issue with Hoglander is where he fits in the broader picture.

With the promotion of Lekkerimaki, the Canucks suddenly have a lot of 'small' forwards. Both Hoglander and Garland are well under 6', and Pius Suter is 5'11" and 185. Even Teddy Blueger is 6' and 185.

The forward group will get beefed up a bit when Joshua rejoins the starting lineup. But during the course of a long season and into the playoffs, the smaller guys up front just get ground down.

I'd still be loathe to ever trade Hoglander, since his 24 goal season last year and his contract extension place him amongst the higher value contracts in the league. But sometimes you have to give up something to get something.

And if there's a trade out there for a legit top-our d-man, and one of the 'asks' is Hoglander, you have to at least 'consider it' don't you?

 

[HairyKneel]

He's a middle 6 young forward with a few warts to his game. He'll average 16 -22 goals a year. He doesn't get ventilated defensively. While I don't see a long term fit here with this player, he's not a real problem with this team.