Rumor: Canucks on the verge of signing Elias Pettersson for eight years!

[Szechwan]

Wha

There are very few posters that elicit an audible "wtf?" reaction out of me as consistently as guardian

 

[Chairman Maouth]

Petey should demand Quinn Hughes money.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

What are you referring to? Last contract he had his best season to that date. This year will be better than last, he is already at 75 points with 21 game left.

Nobody else in the industry reports that there is any traction to the story.

They carry the story only because Seravalli has a good reputation.

He had a bad season (for his standard) in the last year of his ELC (injury was a problem but he wasn't at his best even before that). He's having a good season this year but lower than last season play. He seem to not have his best season in the last year of his contract, as maybe the distraction is an issue for him.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Well, good. He got what he wanted (signs of success) and he'll probably get what he asks for (between $12-13M). And if that's the case, I hope we get what we want... 8 years of a top tier engaged player.

 

[ChilliBilly]

12M for Petey would be 14.37%, which isn't outrageous at all.

Also I just looked up the Sedins' deal when Gillis was first hired, and it was 10.74% of the cap. They definitely did us a solid with that massive discount. JTM's cap hit is 9.70%, which is also kind of insane given how he's played.

1 - The Sedins were pure class. Generous and dedicated. Took a discount for the greater good.
2 - I think he signs $98M. 12.25 annual. Probably a front ended with signing bonus.
3 - A year ago people were saying that the JTM contract was going to be another Albatros .... sadly I was one of them. He has outplayed his salary, but then again so have 8 - 10 of the other players this year.

 

[RandV]

I can’t remember the poster who said this but they made a really good point about how “overpaying” your superstar player $1-3M isn’t what sinks teams but rather handing out contracts to guys who are $2M players to bloated $5M+ as an example. I believe it was @credulous

Really it shouldn't matter, it's about balancing out the over performing vs under performing contracts. But the thing is if you're anyone other than Jim Benning you have a lot more flexibility with your depth guys. Like how Washington let Jay Beagle go for a big UFA contract after winning the Cup and just replaced him with Nic Dowd at no loss of impact.

So the GM's overpaying the Jay Beagles out there probably aren't the best of the bunch so that's how things turn out.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I really wonder whether the Canucks were leaking info in order to plant a seed of doubt in his mind that there was a possibility he could be traded if the right deal came along.

I do too, but in the end analysis, I don't think it's the case. There has to be an awareness in management that A) A bluff could backfire and B) Trading him is an auto-loss. Those things together with their position of "we're not in a rush, he's an RFA this offseason", lends me to believe that they were working off of his timeline.

Piecing this together, I think the team took a 'show me' stance in the offseason. Serravelli reports that the offer in the offseason was believed to be in the 11m~ range. The Pettersson camp balked, went into the season to get more, played well and then when the team realized time was against them, tried to reengage. Pettersson left them waiting at that point.

Now, when he knows the speculation and distraction will only increase, he's back at the table ready to talk. I'm not sure what he was thinking was going to happen? But I'm glad he woke up and is ready to deal.

 

[Phrasing]

Oh plz be tru

Seravelli has made some definitive statements and been completely wrong plenty times (Gibson as an example). At least this time he’s being more cautious and leaving the door open. Hope he is right though. Plenty of others have corroborated him now.

 

[credulous]

Really it shouldn't matter, it's about balancing out the over performing vs under performing contracts. But the thing is if you're anyone other than Jim Benning you have a lot more flexibility with your depth guys. Like how Washington let Jay Beagle go for a big UFA contract after winning the Cup and just replaced him with Nic Dowd at no loss of impact.

So the GM's overpaying the Jay Beagles out there probably aren't the best of the bunch so that's how things turn out.

no, the reason is that salary "value" isn't linear. a "fair" 12m player is way more valuable than two "fair" 6m players or 3 "fair" 4m players (even after you account for the extra roster spots you need to fill)

you would never trade nate mackinnon or mitch marner for cam fowler or ryan pulock and claude giroux or chris krieder

it's also much easier to replace a 5m player with a 1m player than it is to replace a 12m player with an 8m player given the way nhl salaries are depressed/compressed at the low end

 

[pitseleh]

These players were signed to contracts with AAVs around 13% of the cap at the time, which is in line with most top players. Marian Hossa signed his 1 year deal with Detroit at a 7.45M AAV, which was 13.14% of the cap at the time. Scott Gomez's contract at 7.35M AAV was a shocking 14.63% of the cap. For reference, Tavares's deal was 13.84%, and Nylander's new deal is 13.77%.

12M for Petey would be 14.37%, which isn't outrageous at all.

Also I just looked up the Sedins' deal when Gillis was first hired, and it was 10.74% of the cap. They definitely did us a solid with that massive discount. JTM's cap hit is 9.70%, which is also kind of insane given how he's played.

Have to factor in length/age when considering these things too, since we know decline accelerates after 30. I haven’t done the math but getting a couple extra years in a player’s twenties rather than their thirties is probably worth a 5-15% premium, all else equal.

The Sedins deal was nuts because it was both cheap and didn’t saddle the team for what would have been most players decline years, though in hindsight longer deals would have been fine.

 

[Bleach Clean]

IMO all Seravalli did was use common sense to figure out that the team HAS to know very soon what EP is doing before the TDL, he has already been hearing that the Canucks had the 8yr 12 mil contract since summer and he filled in from there.

That's not correct. Serravelli specifically states that 12m AAV was not there for Pettersson in the summer. This, I think, was the main sticking point for the Pettersson camp. The team took a 'show me' stance and when Pettersson did, the team rushed back to the table where Pettersson decided to delay, needlessly.

 

[pitseleh]

no, the reason is that salary "value" isn't linear. a "fair" 12m player is way more valuable than two "fair" 6m players or 3 "fair" 4m players (even after you account for the extra roster spots you need to fill)

you would never trade nate mackinnon or mitch marner for cam fowler or ryan pulock and claude giroux or chris krieder

it's also much easier to replace a 5m player with a 1m player than it is to replace a 12m player with an 8m player given the way nhl salaries are depressed/compressed at the low end

I think you have to consider the best of the best as a separate class, since they invariably sign for less than what they’re worth given the salary max, cultural norms, wanting to spread money around, etc. A guy like MacKinnon could probably be paid twice as much and still be worth it.

But there’s still the Gaudreau, Huberdeau, etc. level of player in that higher salary range (even ignoring their recent regression) that you’d be fine trading two $5 million players for.

There’s just not a lot of Mackinnons outside that top tier on UFA deals.

 

[Jerry the great]

I do too, but in the end analysis, I don't think it's the case. There has to be an awareness in management that A) A bluff could backfire and B) Trading him is an auto-loss. Those things together with their position of "we're not in a rush, he's an RFA this offseason", lends me to believe that they were working off of his timeline.

Piecing this together, I think the team took a 'show me' stance in the offseason. Serravelli reports that the offer in the offseason was believed to be in the 11m~ range. The Pettersson camp balked, went into the season to get more, played well and then when the team realized time was against them, tried to reengage. Pettersson left them waiting at that point.

Now, when he knows the speculation and distraction will only increase, he's back at the table ready to talk. I'm not sure what he was thinking was going to happen? But I'm glad he woke up and is ready to deal.

that's assuming there was an outright bluff....which i don't believe there was. management had been trying to sit down for months and wasn't getting anywhere. Then all of a sudden there were leaks of an open (but not accepted nor rejected) $12x8 offer and a growing level of frustration from Canucks' brass; "we're trying to sign him" Then other teams were "calling". None of this was a mistake and it absolutely worked to at least get a fresh dialogue going, which hopefully leads to an extension. Rutherford's fingerprints are all over the means to an end here.

 

[Vector]

My only hope is that he signs soon and returns to the incredible form we saw last season and a little bit this season. Takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the roster and turns the Canucks into an actual contender.

 

[TruGr1t]

Sounds it's going to be 8 years between $12-12.5M AAV. Seravelli said it's "approaching $100M" total comp.

 

[credulous]

I think you have to consider the best of the best as a separate class, since they invariably sign for less than what they’re worth given the salary max, cultural norms, wanting to spread money around, etc. A guy like MacKinnon could probably be paid twice as much and still be worth it.

But there’s still the Gaudreau, Huberdeau, etc. level of player in that higher salary range (even ignoring their recent regression) that you’d be fine trading two $5 million players for.

There’s just not a lot of Mackinnons outside that top tier on UFA deals.

sure, but it's not like gaudreau or huberdeau would be on fair deals if they made 1-2m less. they'd still be bad contracts. if pettersson isn't valuable at 12m he's probably still not going to be valuable at 10.5m. and yeah, there's lots of players who make in the 6-8m you'd be happy to trade pettersson for but that's because those players are really 9m+ players on great contracts not because they are also on fair contracts. on average a 6m player just isn't that good really -- not when compared with the nhl elite

it's also better to "overpay" your stars than your middle tier players because even if you pay huberdeau 10.5m and he performs like a 7m player you're still getting 7m of value out of him that is hard to replace. it's very difficult to just go out and get a 7m player on a fair contract in the nhl. if you pay someone 5m and they can be replaced by pius suter or dakota joshua or nils hoglander at less than 2m that's really terrible for you because getting a pius suter or dakota joshua is relatively easy

your point about stars taking less is true but that's just an artifact of how the nhl salary cap works and why you ideally want like six 12m players and then seventeen 1m players. salaries are artificially depressed at the top and the bottom so that's where you get the best value. just look around the league at "bad" contracts. except for a few ex-stars that have completely fallen off almost all of them are in the 3-7m range and are middle of the lineup players being paid far more than their actual on ice value

 

[Bleach Clean]

that's assuming there was an outright bluff....which i don't believe there was. management had been trying to sit down for months and wasn't getting anywhere. Then all of a sudden there were leaks of an open (but not accepted nor rejected) $12x8 offer and a growing level of frustration from Canucks' brass; "we're trying to sign him" Then other teams were "calling". None of this was a mistake and it absolutely worked to at least get a fresh dialogue going, which hopefully leads to an extension. Rutherford's fingerprints are all over the means to an end here.

If the team is not bluffing, then you would say there's a non-0% chance they would move Pettersson at the deadline. There was a 0% chance of this happening (short of miracle).

The speculation and distraction reaching a fever pitch now is a delayed reaction. This has been building toward very bad PR for Pettersson already, and it took Friedman talking about teams calling to light the fire. The local media completely dropped the ball. So what we're hearing now is what we should have been hearing all along. It was just delayed because the local media refused to light that fire. (Scared of running Pettersson out of town)

 

[Jerry the great]

If the team is not bluffing, then you would say there's a non-0% chance they would move Pettersson at the deadline. There was a 0% chance of this happening (short of miracle).

The speculation and distraction reaching a fever pitch now, is a delayed reaction. This has been building toward very bad PR for Pettersson already, and it took Friedman talking about teams calling to light the fire. The local media completely dropped the ball. So what we're hearing now is what we should have been hearing all along. It was just delayed because the local media refused to light that fire. (Scared of running Pettersson out of town)

who do you think was in Friedman's ear?

 

[Bleach Clean]

who do you think was in Friedman's ear?

Other GMs asking about Pettersson.

Edit: I don't think Rutherford is stupid enough to believe that the bluff was worth the risk of souring negotiations with Pettersson. Just imo.

 

[Vector]

-management met with Pettersson the last few days
-certainly not done but are talking contract
-trade deadline and the noise in the market contributed to starting talks
-haven't talked contract in a long time
-even Pettersson admitted there was too much noise
-could be 8 years or fewer; talking 6,7,8
-if they go less years then the AAV will go up
-number is going to be higher than 12

I had to stop listening around 7 minutes but should have stopped at 2 or 3.

 

[Jerry the great]

Other GMs asking about Pettersson.

Edit: I don't think Rutherford is stupid enough to believe that the bluff was worth the risk of souring negotiations with Pettersson. Just imo.

Friedman was late to this feeding frenzy which was all started by Dave Pagnotta's Feb 22nd tweet, which everyone here said was BS and now looks bang on. Who fed the story to Pagnotta, that resulted in Canucks brass having to say their intention wasn't to trade him, rather to sign him? Someone (whoever fed Pagnotta) started a media shitstorm that resulted in Pettersson getting tired of the noise and agreeing to sit down and "get something done". It absolutely was not "other GMs" IMO.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Friedman was late to this feeding frenzy which was all started by Dave Pagnotta's Feb 22nd tweet, which everyone here said was BS and now looks bang on. Who fed the story to Pagnotta, that resulted in Canucks brass having to say their intention wasn't to trade him, rather to sign him? Someone (whoever fed Pagnotta) started a media shitstorm that resulted in Pettersson getting tired of the noise and agreeing to sit down and "get something done". It absolutely was not "other GMs" IMO.

The Pagnotta tweet, specifically, has been directly refuted by Serravelli. He said the Canucks were in the 11m~ range in the summer. They were in a 'show me' position.

But following your logic, can I ask you: Why wasn't the 12/8yr information and management's frustration leaked to Pagnotta in November/December? If the goal was to create a media frenzy, why wait to the deadline? To my knowledge, they met Pettersson and tabled an offer at that time. Wouldn't it have helped them get to an agreement then instead of being left on red?

 

[Jay26]

Wow. The most surprising thing is that he apparently went to management.

If this does happen then I was obviously waaaaay off in my reading of him and I won't be making any crazy declarations for awhile.

 

[Nucker101]

-management met with Pettersson the last few days
-certainly not done but are talking contract
-trade deadline and the noise in the market contributed to starting talks
-haven't talked contract in a long time
-even Pettersson admitted there was too much noise
-could be 8 years or fewer; talking 6,7,8
-if they go less years then the AAV will go up
-number is going to be higher than 12

I had to stop listening around 7 minutes but should have stopped at 2 or 3.

I watched this clip on youtube, man is Don Taylor out of touch. He's trying to compare the Pettersson contract to deals like the McDavid one that were signed 6 freakin years ago or to the J.T. Miller deal, comparing signing a 25 year old to a 29 year old.

Imagine going to a realtor selling a house listed for $2M and telling them that you feel like it's an overpay because the nicer house next door sold for $1.6M 6 years ago. They'd laugh in your face.

Guys like Taylor will be praising the Petey deal 2-3 years from now when Dylan Larkin caliber players start demanding $12M deals.

 

[EpochLink]

-management met with Pettersson the last few days
-certainly not done but are talking contract
-trade deadline and the noise in the market contributed to starting talks
-haven't talked contract in a long time
-even Pettersson admitted there was too much noise
-could be 8 years or fewer; talking 6,7,8
-if they go less years then the AAV will go up
-number is going to be higher than 12

I had to stop listening around 7 minutes but should have stopped at 2 or 3.

More nonsense from Dhaliwal, I'm surprised he didn't do another Jack Daniel's handle reference.