Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playoffs Approaching

[Hodgy]

Please define "way better player".

Stone is 2-3 years younger, but also took assets to acquire. There's a trade off.

Stone is a unique player. He’s probably the best two way winger in the game, and is one of the few wingers in recent history to be nominated for a Selke and I think he’s been nominated multiple times. He drives his line as a winger, and is big, gritty, has a good shot and is good play maker. He scores at a near point per game pace.

Guentzel has always been the second best player on his line, doesn’t have anywhere near the defensive acumen as Stone and has scored at a similar rate. He’s not driving the line, Crosby is.

Stone was 26 when he was acquired and signed. Guentzel will be 30 by the time he plays his first game next year. There is massive difference between signing Stone to a long term contract for his prime verses signing Guentzel to a long term contract for years he’s likely to decline.

So you couldn’t be more wrong about comparing signing Guentzel to Vegas’ acquisition of Stone.

 

[David71]

would joel edmundson been a good fit for vancouver even though hes left handed, big physical stay at home guy. been to the finals won a cup.

 

[Coffee]

Probability of an American signing in Canada, one who has options, feels unlikely anyways to begin with.

He wants to play in Vancouver or New York

 

[Bleach Clean]

Stone is a unique player. He’s probably the best two way winger in the game, and is one of the few wingers in recent history to be nominated for a Selke and I think he’s been nominated multiple times. He drives his line as a winger, and is big, gritty, has a good shot and is good play maker. He scores at a near point per game pace.

Guentzel has always been the second best player on his line, doesn’t have anywhere near the defensive acumen as Stone and has scored at a similar rate. He’s not driving the line, Crosby is.

Stone was 26 when he was acquired and signed. Guentzel will be 30 by the time he plays his first game next year. There is massive difference between signing Stone to a long term contract for his prime verses signing Guentzel to a long term contract for years he’s likely to decline.

So you couldn’t be more wrong about comparing signing Guentzel to Vegas’ acquisition of Stone.

To recap what you've said (I want to make sure I get this right):

1. Stone was nominated for a Selke (2018-19, 2020-21).
2. Drives play as a winger.
3. Scores at a PPG pace.
4. Always been the best player on his line.
5. Acquired 3 years earlier.
6. Difference in signing in prime vs late prime.

Have I got this right?

 

[Hodgy]

To recap what you've said (I want to make sure I get this right):

1. Stone was nominated for a Selke (2018-19, 2020-21).
2. Drives play as a winger.
3. Scores at a PPG pace.
4. Always been the best player on his line.
5. Acquired 3 years earlier.
6. Difference in signing in prime vs late prime.

Have I got this right?

Ya, there could be other differences, but those are all noteworthy differences between the Canucks signing Guentzel and Vegas acquiring and signing Stone.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Ya, there could be other differences, but those are all noteworthy differences between the Canucks signing Guentzel and Vegas acquiring and signing Stone.

One more question before I respond: In order to quantify "way better player", is Guentzel elite (top 20 winger) or not elite in your opinion right now?

 

[VanillaCoke]

Rather Toffoli & Buchnevich than nine million guentz

 

[Hodgy]

One more question before I respond: In order to quantify "way better player", is Guentzel elite (top 20 winger) or not elite in your opinion right now?

“Elite” is ambiguous, and it’s semantics whether Guentzel is or isn’t. I’ve already given you the reasons why your initial comparison is poor.

And while I think Stone is way better, your initial statement was that:

“Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event”.

So let’s hear it: why is it?

 

[Dissonance Jr]

My son asked me this question and I thought I knew the answer but the more I thought about it, the more sure I was that I had no idea. I wasn't sure where to ask this question but this seemed like the most likely place.

Future considerations.

What exactly is this? When I google it, I am told that the team receiving future considerations will, at a later date, receive compensation in the form of a player or a pick in exchange for trading a player now.

For example, in March of 2023 Vancouver traded Wyatt Kalynuk to the New York Rangers in exchange for future considerations.

To the best of my knowledge, the Vancouver Canucks have not yet received anything in compensation.

Then I started thinking and I couldn't recall a single instance where I saw a team fulfilling the promise of future considerations.

Is this actually about future considerations or is it more about one team doing another team a solid by giving them a free player or helping free up a contract spot or cap relief?

I think “future considerations” used to be more tangible. At the 1993 deadline we traded Robert Kron and futures to Hartford for Murray Craven and then sent them Jim Sandlak after the playoffs to complete the deal—which in practice was just a fancy way for us to keep Sandlak for the playoffs.

But teams can’t do that anymore—the NHL explicitly cracked down on that particular move right after we did it. Nowadays “future considerations” often just seems like a fancy way of saying “nothing.”

 

[VanJack]

Preds win again and are now four points ahead of Vegas in the first wildcard position. If the standings don't change, it'll be a Vancouver-Vegas first round. Not liking that matchup for the Canucks.

 

[arttk]

Preds win again and are now four points ahead of Vegas in the first wildcard position. If the standings don't change, it'll be a Vancouver-Vegas first round. Not liking that matchup for the Canucks.

Mmm let’s hope for a long Vegas losing streak

 

[Vector]

I have no fear of other teams. Every team has a weakness this season. Wherever the chips fall, I am content that management halt the skid, righted the ship, and set the Canucks up for future success.

No matter what, every team has to go through the meat grinder.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Ya, there could be other differences, but those are all noteworthy differences between the Canucks signing Guentzel and Vegas acquiring and signing Stone.

Your base statement that Stone is a "way better player" remains undefined. And I didn't define "Mark Stone level event"... I think we'll talk past each other again without resolution, but let's give it a go:

1. While Stone has garnered Selke consideration, his actual SAT% Rel counts vary year to year. Sometimes they dip into the negatives. He is a better play driver than Guentzel overall, but not by the degree his reputation would suggest. For instance, Guentzel is way better this year (5.4 to 0.8).

2. Guentzel has also been the better scorer and producer over his career. If we account for pace, Stone is at three 30 goal seasons (though he has never hit the mark) and Guentzel is a five time 30 goal scorer (hitting that mark 3 times (40 goals twice)). Guentzel's 5 year running PPG is also better at 1.03 to 0.96.

3. Stone has never played with a generational talent on his line. Moot point.

4. There is a difference in acquiring a 2-3 year older elite winger via FA than there is in trading for a 2-3 younger elite winger with assets, yes. Both are elite though, which is the point of the statement. Would you have batted an eye if I had said "Panarin level event"?

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Your base statement that Stone is a "way better player" remains undefined. And I didn't define "Mark Stone level event"... I think we'll talk past each other again without resolution, but let's give it a go:

1. While Stone has garnered Selke consideration, his actual SAT% Rel counts vary year to year. Sometimes they dip into the negatives. He is a better play driver than Guentzel overall, but not by the degree his reputation would suggest. For instance, Guentzel is way better this year (5.4 to 0.8).

2. Guentzel has also been the better scorer and producer over his career. If we account for pace, Stone is at three 30 goal seasons (though he has never hit the mark) and Guentzel is a five time 30 goal scorer (hitting that mark 3 times (40 goals twice)). Guentzel's 5 year running PPG is also better at 1.03 to 0.96.

3. Stone has never played with a generational talent on his line. Moot point.

4. There is a difference in acquiring a 2-3 year older elite winger via FA than there is in trading for a 2-3 younger elite winger with assets, yes. Both are elite though, which is the point of the statement. Would you have batted an eye if I had said "Panarin level event"?

This is just debate-lord stuff though.

And leaning entirely too hard on 'advanced stats'.

Like this would be a credible argument on the hockey history board if we were using stats to figure out which of these players was better in 1932 without much or any video evidence.

But if you know hockey, just watch both players.

Now, Stone's injuries probably mean that on the whole Guentzel will be better moving forward. But based on the time of the Stone trade versus now?

It's not remotely close. I would wager that there isn't a person who gets a paycheque from an NHL team who thinks that Guentzel now is in the same class as Stone was when he was traded.

I like Guentzel and he's a really nice piece, but Stone impacts the game in all three zones in a way that Guentzel just doesn't.

I sort of think of Guentzel a bit like a Kyle Connor without the dynamic speed. A guy who is fantastic at putting the biscuit in the basket and has great hockey sense, but isn't remotely above average on his own side of center.

 

[oceanchild]

i was playing around on capfriendly

assuming blueger, joshua, and hronek combine around ~12.5, they have the space to make meaningful additions

not sure how much of a hometown discount you can convince tanev to take but i left 4.5 for a second pair RD. Also gave us 4 to acquire a top six forward (vatrano?) and 2 for a backup goalie (think we should just bring back desmith and not overcomplicate things), and about 2.5-3 for another bottom pair D.

i doubt all of mikheyev, garland, and boeser return but that’s a bridge i imagine they’ll cross in the summer.

Hoglander - EP - New Winger (4)
Mikheyev - Miller - Boeser
Joshua (3.25) - Blueger (2.25) - Garland
Podkolzin (1) - Suter - PDG
2 of Bains/Aman/Raty/etc

Hughes - Hronek (6.75)
Soucy - New 2nd Pair D (4.5)
New Bottom Pair D (2.5-3) - Juulsen
Depth D

Demko
DeSmith (1.8)

Toffoli/Guentzel/Lindholm will be looked at in the summer. They seem married to Mikheyev and I’m not sure it is because they expect him to recover and feel he meets a need or if it’s because he has limited or negative value.

I hope Hronek signed for $6.75 and given some contracts we just seen, it’s possible. I also think $3m is enough for a Joshua (he doesn’t have the same level of sustained play as Rasmusson).

Bluger is to much IMO and you can play Suter
In that spot. Your better to invest in your top 6.

Finally prepare yourself for Myers to be the 3rd RHD again next year. They love the guy.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Playing Vegas in Round 1 will be like playing Chicago in 2011.

 

[Hodgy]

This is just debate-lord stuff though.

And leaning entirely too hard on 'advanced stats'.

Like this would be a credible argument on the hockey history board if we were using stats to figure out which of these players was better in 1932 without much or any video evidence.

But if you know hockey, just watch both players.

Now, Stone's injuries probably mean that on the whole Guentzel will be better moving forward. But based on the time of the Stone trade versus now?

It's not remotely close. I would wager that there isn't a person who gets a paycheque from an NHL team who thinks that Guentzel now is in the same class as Stone was when he was traded.

I like Guentzel and he's a really nice piece, but Stone impacts the game in all three zones in a way that Guentzel just doesn't.

I sort of think of Guentzel a bit like a Kyle Connor without the dynamic speed. A guy who is fantastic at putting the biscuit in the basket and has great hockey sense, but isn't remotely above average on his own side of center.

This is it. Mark Stone is such a unique player, being a point per game, Selke calibre winger, that drives his line. Since being acquired by Vegas, Stone has essentially been in a class of his own. Marian Hossa was very similar before as well.

But you are absolutely right that not one credible person in hockey is taking prime Guentzel over prime Stone, and this isn’t even the comparison as we are talking prime Stone vs. 30 year old Guentzel. It just isn’t close. And the differences in ages make Stone’s signing with Vegas way more valuable and less risky than Guentzel’s next contract.

 

[JT Milker]

I’d re up Joshua, Hronek, and Zadorov. The rest can walk. I think Blueger can be replaced by making Suter the full time 3C next season and Raty/Sasson/cheap UFA as the 4C.

Joshua @ $3M x 3 or $2.25-2.65M x 6
Zadorov @ $4M x 4
Hronek @ $6.7M x 8

Term is subjective.

IMO, If they all ask for more money than the numbers above, you let them walk/trade Hronek. I would not be comfortable giving Hronek more than $7M.

Trade Mikheyev for Smith (might need to add a pick). The idea is to get out of Mikheyev’s last year by bringing in a player with a year left.

Sign Tanev and trade for Kovacevic

Hoglander-Pettersson-______
Smith-Miller-Boeser
Joshua-Suter-Garland
_______-prospect/UFA-______

Hughes-Tanev (4M x 2)
Soucy-Hronek
Zadorov-Kovacevic
Juulsen

Demko
Tolopilo or Silovs

So with 28.4M of cap space, with all those additions above, you’re looking at about 22.8M with 3-4 forward slots to fill with about $6M ish of cap space. If you want to create some more cap space, you’d have to find a way to dump Garland or you let Zadorov walk and sign Dillon for half price.

The 4th line would need to be filled out with league min contracts/prospects. Sign a cheap RW or trade for a core RW to fill that slot next to Pettersson.

I highly doubt we will sign a big name UFA player like Guentzel. There’s just no way you can fit his contract without absolutely gutting our ability to sign cheap depth.

Both Hronek and Joshua will get more than this, probably ~0.5M/year.

 

[krutovsdonut]

It's certaintly not my personal scouting assessment. It's my reading of the assessments of their play and my understanding of what their age/production means. On that basis, it'd be astounding if either of them played significant minutes for the Canucks next season. I've never read any credible source that thinks it a reasonable probability that either will play an important role for the Canucks in 24/25.

If you or any other poster has watched them play and you believe, based on what you've seen, that they'll prove the experts wrong, well, I'm skeptical, but I respect the position and hope you're right.

ok well that boils down to an appeal to authority. just to be clear, do any of these "experts" actually contradict me in saying it's a possibility, or am i wrong in your mind to contradict simply because they haven't said it's possible? are there any experts actually saying they definitely won't make the team next year? i have not read any.

the experts on canuck prospects, such as they are, are to me highly inexact and fallible. at best maybe right more than wrong, but still wrong a lot. i kind of think they'd equivocate on both these players' prospects at camp next year, though obviously more so with lekk. they'll both be 20 and d+3 next september. i think ep2 would be a bigger stretch but lekkermaki would be the kind of player i could easily see making a splash in the nhl based on the skillset and type of game he plays. the reason i named them though is both players are showing rapid development right now which points for me to interesting camps.

 

[arttk]

Both Hronek and Joshua will get more than this, probably ~0.5M/year.

I don’t think Joshua will get enough points to earn more than 3. If he didn’t get injured, yeah maybe but I don’t think there are enough games left for him to make a case.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I think people are overestimating Joshua contract. The track record isn't long enough to justify a bigger contract.

I think he will likely land in the 2-3 mil range.

 

[Lindgren]

ok well that boils down to an appeal to authority. just to be clear, do any of these "experts" actually contradict me in saying it's a possibility, or am i wrong in your mind to contradict simply because they haven't said it's possible? are there any experts actually saying they definitely won't make the team next year? i have not read any.

the experts on canuck prospects, such as they are, are to me highly inexact and fallible. at best maybe right more than wrong, but still wrong a lot. i kind of think they'd equivocate on both these players' prospects at camp next year, though obviously more so with lekk. they'll both be 20 and d+3 next september. i think ep2 would be a bigger stretch but lekkermaki would be the kind of player i could easily see making a splash in the nhl based on the skillset and type of game he plays. the reason i named them though is both players are showing rapid development right now which points for me to interesting camps.

I'm not thinking of posters on this board. I'm thinking that I've read no projections that put Lekkerimaki or Pettersson in the line-up next season, or that think it's a reasonable possibility.

Both EP and JL will be 20 through most of the 24/25 season. Run through the twenty-year-olds (or under 20) currently playing in the league. There are about a dozen. Eight of them were top four picks. They're mostly playing on non-playoff teams. EP would be a very extreme outlier, to the point of being shocking, if he were to make it. It'd be a very unusual outcome for JL as well.

Obviously, their making the NHL is a possibility. It's also possible that Jett Woo will be decent in a bottom pairing role next year, and that Raty will be a very good third-line centre. These possibilities are so slim that it would be flat out dumb for management to make decisions related to that outcome.

 

[StickShift]

I think people are overestimating Joshua contract. The track record isn't long enough to justify a bigger contract.

I think he will likely land in the 2-3 mil range.

It depends entirely on his playoffs. If he doesn’t stand out. I don’t think he gets more than 2.5 anywhere.

But… if he has a Blake Coleman/Barclay Goodrow/Ivan Barbashev type of playoffs where he demonstrates he can be an impact player… someone will overpay him significantly.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I don’t think Joshua will get enough points to earn more than 3. If he didn’t get injured, yeah maybe but I don’t think there are enough games left for him to make a case.

I also think people are underestimating how much players value term. Wouldn't be at all surprised if at least a few of our UFAs take less for longer term deals.

Someone I'd definitely consider bringing back is Cole. Ideally, at a lower cap hit given his age but he's played exceptionally well when not asked to carry #3 load of Soucy. Something in the 2M range would be fantastic.

 

[andora]

How do you figure? Podkolzin is a below average sized forward who isn't very physical. He is 6'1 - 190 pounds. The average size of an NHL forward in 2024 is 6'1 - 198.5 pounds (hortonbarbell.com).

The Canucks have a soft forward group and this should have been addressed at the TDL.

What are we defining physical as though, last night for example he consistently engaged in contact and board battles and several times used his body for position and gets the puck