Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playoffs Approaching

[LemonSauceD]

I’d re up Joshua, Hronek, and Zadorov. The rest can walk. I think Blueger can be replaced by making Suter the full time 3C next season and Raty/Sasson/cheap UFA as the 4C.

Joshua @ $3M x 3 or $2.25-2.65M x 6
Zadorov @ $4M x 4
Hronek @ $6.7M x 8

Term is subjective.

IMO, If they all ask for more money than the numbers above, you let them walk/trade Hronek. I would not be comfortable giving Hronek more than $7M.

Trade Mikheyev for Smith (might need to add a pick). The idea is to get out of Mikheyev’s last year by bringing in a player with a year left.

Sign Tanev and trade for Kovacevic

Hoglander-Pettersson-______
Smith-Miller-Boeser
Joshua-Suter-Garland
_______-prospect/UFA-______

Hughes-Tanev (4M x 2)
Soucy-Hronek
Zadorov-Kovacevic
Juulsen

Demko
Tolopilo or Silovs

So with 28.4M of cap space, with all those additions above, you’re looking at about 22.8M with 3-4 forward slots to fill with about $6M ish of cap space. If you want to create some more cap space, you’d have to find a way to dump Garland or you let Zadorov walk and sign Dillon for half price.

The 4th line would need to be filled out with league min contracts/prospects. Sign a cheap RW or trade for a core RW to fill that slot next to Pettersson.

I highly doubt we will sign a big name UFA player like Guentzel. There’s just no way you can fit his contract without absolutely gutting our ability to sign cheap depth.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I wouldn’t sign Guentzel for $9M. Thats a huge risk. I would focus on D. We could use a #3

What?

Guentzel is the 9th or 10th best winger in the game. Elite. Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event. They will not pass that up.

I'm surprised people see it as you do here, truly. For the next 3 years in FA, this is the best potential fit they could acquire based upon player quality, management history, and roster need.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I mean that when making their off-season decisions, they shouldn't be thinking about allowing for the possibility that either will make the team. That possibility is extremely remote, so making allowances of that sort would be a mistake. I'm pretty confident they won't make that mistake.

i think they absolutely should make sure they don't make roster moves that block prospects from stepping up. the way they are loading up the top of the roster they are going to desperately need to transition elc guys to sustain the team.

 

[StreetHawk]

What?

Guentzel is the 9th or 10th best winger in the game. Elite. Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event. They will not pass that up.

I'm surprised people see it as you do here, truly. For the next 3 years in FA, this is the best potential fit they could acquire based upon player quality, management history, and roster need.

Probability of an American signing in Canada, one who has options, feels unlikely anyways to begin with.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Can't retain more then 50% either unless you're looping in another team which just adds to the cost in trade assets.

Also buying out players on LTIR feels greasy. Like firing someone who gets hurt on the job.

Not trying to short change the player. But a player who is on LTIR and not likely to ever play another game shouldn't handicap a team for years. If a team is willing to spend the money to buy the player out, who loses?

For that matterI think there should be some sort or league mandated insurance so that if a player get hurt when they are something like 23, and it ends their career, they get some sort of payoff. Nothing outrageous, but like 5 - 6 years at $300K or something.

 

[arttk]

Probability of an American signing in Canada, one who has options, feels unlikely anyways to begin with.

Prior relationship with Allvin and JR might help? We also have a bunch of Americans on the team

 

[krutovsdonut]

I think even if he wasn't looking to sign Lindholm long term, Allvin would still indicate that he was.

the catch 22 with lindholm is that if he plays well enough to want to extend him we likely won't be able to afford him. we walked from horvat last year for the kind of money lindholm wants because we couldn't build a top 6 with that much cap dedicated to a 2c.

the only scenario i see that keeps him here long term is if he plays selke defence but is snake bit offensively and somehow comes in around $6m. i won't hold me breath.

Probability of an American signing in Canada, one who has options, feels unlikely anyways to begin with.

he wants to be ready to play with crosby when he comes here in 2025.

 

[StreetHawk]

Can't retain more then 50% either unless you're looping in another team which just adds to the cost in trade assets.

Also buying out players on LTIR feels greasy. Like firing someone who gets hurt on the job.

LTIR salary is mostly covered via insurance. And teams get to spend that cap elsewhere. Just a hinderance if you have bonuses to vets and rookies which can't be expensed in the current year if you are dipping into LTIR.

Not sure if the poster is looking at the NFL and Russ Wilson who is due $38 mill from Denver but will have that reduced by whatever he signs for with another club. But, most likely he's not signing for more than $2 mill as the vet minimum is like $1.2 mill for him and he'd likely want to stick it to his former club as he won't make more than $38 mill anyways.
But, this is the equivalent of Van/AZ paying OEL the full $10 mill then subtracting the $2.25 mill that FLA paid him. But, since he wouldn't get more than $10 mill, why ask for anything more than the minimum and have the buyout teams cover the balance?

 

[bandwagonesque]

How do you figure? Podkolzin is a below average sized forward who isn't very physical. He is 6'1 - 190 pounds. The average size of an NHL forward in 2024 is 6'1 - 198.5 pounds (hortonbarbell.com).

The Canucks have a soft forward group and this should have been addressed at the TDL.

Oh okay, I didn't realize that.

 

[rypper]

What?

Guentzel is the 9th or 10th best winger in the game. Elite. Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event. They will not pass that up.

I'm surprised people see it as you do here, truly. For the next 3 years in FA, this is the best potential fit they could acquire based upon player quality, management history, and roster need.

And he'll be 30 at the start of next season. We'll already have a 31 year old Miller who is bucking the aging curve.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Not trying to short change the player. But a player who is on LTIR and not likely to ever play another game shouldn't handicap a team for years. If a team is willing to spend the money to buy the player out, who loses?

For that matterI think there should be some sort or league mandated insurance so that if a player get hurt when they are something like 23, and it ends their career, they get some sort of payoff. Nothing outrageous, but like 5 - 6 years at $300K or something.

if you could buyout ltir guys without penalties, you could effectively backload contracts and circumvent the cap even if they only get paid out half the deal. you would suddenly see guys signing for 8 years at 32 with no intention of finishing their careers and perfectly fine if they only get half the contract amount the last 4 years. many players carry around injuries that with a little creativity could be ltir-retirement worthy.

 

[krutovsdonut]

salary retention question. assuming you could get teams to use a retention slot to do it, could you acquire a $1m player with 75% retention leaving him with a $250k cap hit?

also, can you retain salary on an elc?

 

[Bleach Clean]

And he'll be 30 at the start of next season. We'll already have a 31 year old Miller who is bucking the aging curve.

The fact that they committed long-term to Miller, at age 29, is even more reason to suggest that they would be willing to do the same with Guentzel.

Elite is elite. Age regression from a height few can touch is more manageable than from a height of the average top6F/top4D player.

 

[krutovsdonut]

What?

Guentzel is the 9th or 10th best winger in the game. Elite. Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event. They will not pass that up.

I'm surprised people see it as you do here, truly. For the next 3 years in FA, this is the best potential fit they could acquire based upon player quality, management history, and roster need.

is there no risk giving him 7 or 8 years at 29? what kind of mileage does he have on his body?

iirc, loui eriksson was considered a can't miss to have at least 3 good seasons at $6m. he also had a reputation for getting to the net and playing hard.

life comes at you fast.

 

[StreetHawk]

salary retention question. assuming you could get teams to use a retention slot to do it, could you acquire a $1m player with 75% retention leaving him with a $250k cap hit?

also, can you retain salary on an elc?

Correct. That is what has occurred.

For simplicity, an $8 mill player. With 1/4 of the year left, that is $2 mill. Original team retains 50% or $1 mill. 2nd retaining team gets the player and retains another 50% or $500K of the $1 mill. Sends him to the final destination who has to cover the remaining $500K cap hit for the final 1/4 of the season.

You could retain on an ELC, but you open yourself up to covering potential bonuses if they hit them I would imagine.

But, why would you need help to cover a $925K cap hit? Not realistic.

 

[ChilliBilly]

if you could buyout ltir guys without penalties, you could effectively backload contracts and circumvent the cap even if they only get paid out half the deal. you would suddenly see guys signing for 8 years at 32 with no intention of finishing their careers and perfectly fine if they only get half the contract amount the last 4 years. many players carry around injuries that with a little creativity could be ltir-retirement worthy.

Yeah, it might get abused. so write up an agreement that allows teams not to be penalized, but stops them from doing this sort of thing. Like say players over 34 are not eligible to be bought out. Or you can't buy out years after some set age, you have to live with the penalty. But it sucks if you have someone like Poolman on LTIR from the age of 28 - 32.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Correct. That is what has occurred.

For simplicity, an $8 mill player. With 1/4 of the year left, that is $2 mill. Original team retains 50% or $1 mill. 2nd retaining team gets the player and retains another 50% or $500K of the $1 mill. Sends him to the final destination who has to cover the remaining $500K cap hit for the final 1/4 of the season.

You could retain on an ELC, but you open yourself up to covering potential bonuses if they hit them I would imagine.

But, why would you need help to cover a $925K cap hit? Not realistic.

mostly a thought experiment but in an era where teams are dressing 21 or 22 man rosters to manage cap a $250k player could be valuable.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Yeah, it might get abused. so write up an agreement that allows teams not to be penalized, but stops them from doing this sort of thing. Like say players over 34 are not eligible to be bought out. Or you can't buy out years after some set age, you have to live with the penalty. But it sucks if you have someone like Poolman on LTIR from the age of 28 - 32.

that would create pressure to buy out ltir guys at 34.

 

[StreetHawk]

that would create pressure to buy out ltir guys at 34.

End of the day, a salary cap and its charges should be charging a team(s) for the amount of money that was paid to the player. NFL is the same way.

Major difference is that in the NFL, the amount of money you pay the player yourself, you are on the hook for taking a cap charge for the amount you have paid that player. So, for teams that hand out $20 mill in a Signing bonus, that get allocated over 5 years, after 2 years, they have only taken $8 mill against the cap for that $20 mill and are then on the hook for the final $12 mill of that SB if they opt to cut the player. Seahawks, going into 2024 was under $1 mill in dead salary cap charges, but cut 3 players and will incur 8 figures in dead cap. Just how it works. I think Cincy was the low for last season at like $3 mill in dead cap while TB was pushing $80 mill in dead cap.

NHL, whether you front or back load a contract, the NHL factors in the cap charges already taken. Thus, when Van bought out Jake, they got a credit back as they took a higher cap charge of $2.55 mill vs the $1.9 mill in cash they paid him that year and their buyout was like $1 mill of the balance of the $3 mill owing.

I recall when Orpik was dealt from Wash to Col, he was on like a 5 year $20 mill deal. Was paid $17 mill over first 4 years. When dealt to Col, they bought him out for $2 mill of the $3 mill owing. But, the Avs had to account for the extra $1 mill paid by Wash that had not hit the cap, so in the 2 years of the buyout, one year they ate $2 mill and one they ate $1 mill in dead cap. There was no charging Wash for that extra $1 mill. Col ate that when they did the buyout.

 

[Hodgy]

What?

Guentzel is the 9th or 10th best winger in the game. Elite. Getting him would be a Mark Stone level event. They will not pass that up.

I'm surprised people see it as you do here, truly. For the next 3 years in FA, this is the best potential fit they could acquire based upon player quality, management history, and roster need.

Mark Stone was a way better player than Guentzel when acquired, and was like 2-3 years younger.

 

[Lindgren]

i think they absolutely should make sure they don't make roster moves that block prospects from stepping up. the way they are loading up the top of the roster they are going to desperately need to transition elc guys to sustain the team.

They shouldn't be worrying to any degree about blocking Lekkerimaki or Pettersson in 24/25.

 

[krutovsdonut]

End of the day, a salary cap and its charges should be charging a team(s) for the amount of money that was paid to the player. NFL is the same way.

i don't see that comparison.

contract money in the nfl is not guaranteed. teams can usually cut players and walk away from deals.

if nhl teams could do that, totally different ballgame. so to speak.

They shouldn't be worrying to any degree about blocking Lekkerimaki or Pettersson in 24/25.

is this some kind of general philosophy or based on your scouting assessment of those players?

 

[StreetHawk]

i don't see that comparison.

contract money in the nfl is not guaranteed. teams can usually cut players and walk away from deals.

if nhl teams could do that, totally different ballgame. so to speak.


is this some kind of general philosophy or based on your scouting assessment of those players?

NFL teams don't buyout players. They cut them as, like you said, their contracts are not fully guaranteed. But, in the NFL, these isn't the same concern about "Dead Cap" as it's expected in the NFL as they adopt the Borrow from Peter to pay Paul saying, as they constantly have a rising cap.
Team signs a player for 4 years for $100 mill, but the details end up being that the team pays the player $55 mill over first 2 years, but only have taken $40 mill in cap charges. Thus, they are on the hook for the balance of the $15 mill of cap charges for the money they paid the player if they cut the player after year 2.

 

[Lindgren]

i don't see that comparison.

contract money in the nfl is not guaranteed. teams can usually cut players and walk away from deals.

if nhl teams could do that, totally different ballgame. so to speak.


is this some kind of general philosophy or based on your scouting assessment of those players?

It's certaintly not my personal scouting assessment. It's my reading of the assessments of their play and my understanding of what their age/production means. On that basis, it'd be astounding if either of them played significant minutes for the Canucks next season. I've never read any credible source that thinks it a reasonable probability that either will play an important role for the Canucks in 24/25.

If you or any other poster has watched them play and you believe, based on what you've seen, that they'll prove the experts wrong, well, I'm skeptical, but I respect the position and hope you're right.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Mark Stone was a way better player than Guentzel when acquired, and was like 2-3 years younger.

Please define "way better player".

Stone is 2-3 years younger, but also took assets to acquire. There's a trade off.