Canucks Managerial Thread II

[Eddy Punch Clock]

That trade is a wash at worst

Ed-Zachary.

My only point was (which you may have gotten but I'm not sure....) that it cannot be assumed... which for some reason it usually is around here... that we would have drafted the exact same player our trading partner used to draft with said pick.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Agree.
It was a huge gamble. Trading a top 10 goalie for 1 pick/player was a move that could have backfired big time and if it did we would have every right to crap on Gillis for it. If the pick was Sam Morin there isn't a fan in this city that wouldn't lament the move and rightly so.

Gillis made a calculated gamble and right now it's looking solid.

Yup. He didn't make that trade knowing who he was going to get. He made the trade knowing there was a strong top half of the draft and he was obviously confident he would come away with a core building block. He was right.

Obviously things are different when you're talking about mid to late Rd picks and every player is a long shot, but that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about the 1st Rd, where every player is known inside and out leading up to the draft.

Wasn't necessarily going to be McCann - could have been a Larkin, Pastrnak, Fabrri, Scherbak. Point is, management may have come to the conclusion there was a lot of quality going to be on the board in the tail end of the 1st Rd. And it impacted the return they decided to take, going with a pick over a prospect like Etem for example.

To just disregard all the moving parts in that trade and deem it nothing more than a good draft pick is just a poor analysis. Or at best an incomplete one.

 

[Verviticus]

Same people complain about the Ballard trade

A cap dump, a guy on waivers and an AHLer. Phhtttt who cares, liabilities and duds for a guy that helped mentor the team to two presidents trophies and a SCF.

ballards mentorship was underrated. he was a really funny dude

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Ballard was a regular Obi-Wan

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Same people complain about the Ballard trade

A cap dump, a guy on waivers and an AHLer. Phhtttt who cares, liabilities and duds for a guy that helped mentor the team to two presidents trophies and a SCF.

People would complain if we picked Ballard up off waivers. Him eating up a big portion of the cap and not being able to outplay our #8 defensemen played a big role in Gillis' failures in adding secondary scoring.

We weren't going to draft Howden. We were dead set on coming away with one of Tinordi or Bennett IIRC. My god am I happy we've made more changes to that scouting staff. Bennett and Tinordi? Piss off.

 

[me2]

People would complain if we picked Ballard up off waivers. Him eating up a big portion of the cap and not being able to outplay our #8 defensemen played a big role in Gillis' failures in adding secondary scoring.

We weren't going to draft Howden. We were dead set on coming away with one of Tinordi or Bennett IIRC. My god am I happy we've made more changes to that scouting staff. Bennett and Tinordi? Piss off.

On please, don't we rate trades by who was picked now (*cough* McCann).

Ballard's intangibles and mentoring were invaluable for developing a young Tanev. Results speak for themselves.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

On please, don't we rate trades by who was picked now (*cough* McCann).

Ballard's intangibles and mentoring were invaluable for developing a young Tanev. Results speak for themselves.

Yes, we have always factored in who was picked when rating trades.

We didn't pick Howden. We wanted one of Tinordi or Bennett. So yes, our management would have ****ed it up either way.

Is that better?

 

[Intangibos]

He did get fleeced one for one but he turned the cash into Vrbata or Miller take your pick. Again it's what you make of it.

Nothing wrong with Gillis' trade either.

Your last rant doesn't even make sense (1000$ lottery ticket?)..what is a 24th pick with players like Barbashev, Pastrnak, Demko, McCann available worth? What would you want for that pick in terms of a player?

Vrbata was an excellent signing, are you saying that the 4.6M we freed up from Garrison was used for Sbisa at 2.175M, Vey at 0.735M, Miller at 6M and Vrbata at 5M? We should definitely keep Benning if he managed to turn 4.6M of capspace into just under 14M

like 60% of the Garrison cap space was used on Sbisa and Vey at 2.91M. That left us 1.7M in cap space from the trade. We could have not signed Miller to a huge contract, kept Garrison and signed Vrbata.

The rant does make sense. Just because something turned out doesn't mean it was a good decision. If you spend your entire savings at the track and you happen to get lucky and bet on the right horse, it was still a really stupid and irresponsible thing to do. We had no idea that McCann would still be available at 24.

Also, on top of that, even if we did, we still could have got more value from Kesler and that's what the problem is. Instead of targeting picks and prospects, setting our team up for the future, we targeted Bonino (who I like) and Sbisa. We then flip Bonino along with other picks and prospects to get Sutter and give a raise to Sbisa. As much as I like Bones and think Sutter is a fine NHL player, getting picks and prospects from Anaheim and filling holes temporarily through the FA market would have been much better for the team in the long run, and I'm really not sure how that's even debatable.

 

[Bleach Clean]

What Gillis made of that pick has affected how the trade is viewed, which should go without saying.

It does affect how the trade is viewed, I agree, but that highlights an error in judgement more than it does the proper way to perceive value.

MS's analogy is on point. What Schneider garnered at the time is key. That's what CS returned in 'universal' value. Remember, the 9th overall pick by itself is an asset that carries value. This is key. After that, it's up to Benning's scouting to 'prove' the baseline of that value (at the least) via scouting. This does not, however, mean the 9th pick itself is valueless or completely transitory.

Do you honestly think he wouldn't be torn to shreds if he wasted that pick on a nothing player? He absolutely would be. No questions asked. That player would ALWAYS be brought up when talking about the trade - not just the draft.

He would be torn to shreds... for his ability to evaluate players, yes. (Note: This is different from being torn to shreds about the value of assets themselves)

 

[sting101]

Yup. He didn't make that trade knowing who he was going to get. He made the trade knowing there was a strong top half of the draft and he was obviously confident he would come away with a core building block. He was right.

Obviously things are different when you're talking about mid to late Rd picks and every player is a long shot, but that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about the 1st Rd, where every player is known inside and out leading up to the draft.

Wasn't necessarily going to be McCann - could have been a Larkin, Pastrnak, Fabrri, Scherbak. Point is, management may have come to the conclusion there was a lot of quality going to be on the board in the tail end of the 1st Rd. And it impacted the return they decided to take, going with a pick over a prospect like Etem for example.

To just disregard all the moving parts in that trade and deem it nothing more than a good draft pick is just a poor analysis. Or at best an incomplete one.

That's it...
He would have had a good idea what he could have plucked at 24 in 2014.
Lots of good players available.....has the confidence to turn it into a good pick and does so. Is that not good execution or am I missing something.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

It does affect how the trade is viewed, I agree, but that highlights an error in judgement more than it does the proper way to perceive value.

He would be torn to shreds... for his ability to evaluate players, yes. (Note: This is different from being torn to shreds about the value of assets themselves)

It's management's job to decipher what type of asset will be available at that pick. Not all drafts are created equal. The Schneider trade is seen in a positive light because of the player they came away with - they came away with that player because they did a good job assessing what was going to be on the board at their selection.

Same goes for getting McCann. They very well could have targeted an Etem/Rakell instead of the 24th if they didn't think there was going to be première talents still available at 24. In the end, they opted to target the 24th pick, instead of opting to go with some pretty good young players in the Ducks system. Who they ultimately came away with was going to determine if that was the right course of action or not. On that front, early returns look good. Which is why credit is given for the decision they made.

 

[sting101]

Vrbata was an excellent signing, are you saying that the 4.6M we freed up from Garrison was used for Sbisa at 2.175M, Vey at 0.735M, Miller at 6M and Vrbata at 5M? We should definitely keep Benning if he managed to turn 4.6M of capspace into just under 14M

like 60% of the Garrison cap space was used on Sbisa and Vey at 2.91M. That left us 1.7M in cap space from the trade. We could have not signed Miller to a huge contract, kept Garrison and signed Vrbata.

The rant does make sense. Just because something turned out doesn't mean it was a good decision. If you spend your entire savings at the track and you happen to get lucky and bet on the right horse, it was still a really stupid and irresponsible thing to do. We had no idea that McCann would still be available at 24.

Also, on top of that, even if we did, we still could have got more value from Kesler and that's what the problem is. Instead of targeting picks and prospects, setting our team up for the future, we targeted Bonino (who I like) and Sbisa. We then flip Bonino along with other picks and prospects to get Sutter and give a raise to Sbisa. As much as I like Bones and think Sutter is a fine NHL player, getting picks and prospects from Anaheim and filling holes temporarily through the FA market would have been much better for the team in the long run, and I'm really not sure how that's even debatable.

Ok I said 1 of Miller or Vrbata.....5 or 6 million. Vey's contract was the same as Schroeder.....Sbisa's and difference gave us cap relief....it's called a re allocation of money. 2.5 million of it. Without it we don't sign one of them.

Why the race track or lottery analogy? Benning knew he'd get a good player at 24.....he was right when McCann fell. Would it matter that much if we took Pastrnak instead....point being he was confident he could get a top 6 forward with the pick and looks to have......again Kesler himself was a 23rd pick.

Your last part appears to be a philosophical difference with JB. With the way the team looks you still think we should have been fully focused on a futures only deal?

 

[Intangibos]

Ok I said 1 of Miller or Vrbata.....5 or 6 million. Vey's contract was the same as Schroeder.....Sbisa's and difference gave us cap relief....it's called a re allocation of money. 2.5 million of it. Without it we don't sign one of them.

Why the race track or lottery analogy? Benning knew he'd get a good player at 24.....he was right when McCann fell. Would it matter that much if we took Pastrnak instead....point being he was confident he could get a top 6 forward with the pick and looks to have......again Kesler himself was a 23rd pick.

Your last part appears to be a philosophical difference with JB. With the way the team looks you still think we should have been fully focused on a futures only deal?

He knew he'd get a good player at 24? Lots of teams don't get good players at 24, even though they're all usually somewhat confident in their picks.

If we traded Dan Hamhuis for the 1st overall pick, and then used that pick to draft like Taylor Ellington or something, was it a bad trade? No, it was an amazing trade and absolutely horrid scouting.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Not to derail... but I seriously can't remember some of the reasons people speculated as to why McCann fell so far in the draft.

He himself clearly wasn't impressed... I felt like we just drafted another Steve Francis in Vancouver.

Attitude? Injury?

 

[The Drop]

Not to derail... but I seriously can't remember some of the reasons people speculated as to why McCann fell so far in the draft.

He himself clearly wasn't impressed... I felt like we just drafted another Steve Francis in Vancouver.

Attitude? Injury?

Could be something as simple as a bad interview.

Also felt like he didn't want to come here but doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

Hoping he continues his progression

 

[Intangibos]

Nah, I don't think it's a big deal. "It is what it is" was scary at the time but looking back it's just funny, as it clearly wasn't what he meant. I think he was just disappointed he fell so far. The higher you're drafted, the larger your ELC usually is, right? Could have just been a kid disappointed on potential money he was missing out on due to slipping.

 

[RandV]

Yup. He didn't make that trade knowing who he was going to get. He made the trade knowing there was a strong top half of the draft and he was obviously confident he would come away with a core building block. He was right.

Obviously things are different when you're talking about mid to late Rd picks and every player is a long shot, but that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about the 1st Rd, where every player is known inside and out leading up to the draft.

Wasn't necessarily going to be McCann - could have been a Larkin, Pastrnak, Fabrri, Scherbak. Point is, management may have come to the conclusion there was a lot of quality going to be on the board in the tail end of the 1st Rd. And it impacted the return they decided to take, going with a pick over a prospect like Etem for example.

To just disregard all the moving parts in that trade and deem it nothing more than a good draft pick is just a poor analysis. Or at best an incomplete one.

There's almost always going to good quality at the end of the 1st, we're just looking at it a little over a year from the draft so the kids still look really good. Case in point, draft +1 Emerson Etem still looked like an amazing prospects. Starting with his draft year his WHL goal totals went 37->45->61. He's also been a PPG player in the AHL for two seasons, just hasn't been able to establish himself as a score in the NHL.

Give it 3-4 more years and we'll be saying a lot of the same thing about the 'quality' in the latter end of that 1st round.

 

[F A N]

It does affect how the trade is viewed, I agree, but that highlights an error in judgement more than it does the proper way to perceive value.

MS's analogy is on point. What Schneider garnered at the time is key. That's what CS returned in 'universal' value. Remember, the 9th overall pick by itself is an asset that carries value. This is key. After that, it's up to Benning's scouting to 'prove' the baseline of that value (at the least) via scouting. This does not, however, mean the 9th pick itself is valueless or completely transitory.

He would be torn to shreds... for his ability to evaluate players, yes. (Note: This is different from being torn to shreds about the value of assets themselves)

There's no doubt that a draft pick carries value. But you also assess the "value" of the pick based on what you can get out of it. Gillis felt the draft was deep enough where at #9 he's going to get a player that is worth trading Schneider for. Ever watch Shark Tank? Most of the Sharks invest in large part based on the value they can give to it. You have to play to your strengths.

This is professional sports. It's about winning. And a dime can be worth more than two nickels. I hate to make the Anthopoulos comparisons as it's a different sport, but there's similarity. When Anthopoulos first signed on, he made trades for prospects that played "premium" positions. Most of those guys didn't work out and ended up being traded, but in the process he rebuilt the farm (mostly drafting pitchers) enough to make the Dickey and Marlins trade (traded away a lot of arms). That didn't work out, he bid his time while the farm was rebuilt and he once again traded away his farm this year. Being a believer in "analytics" he spoke greatly about the importance of "culture." And inherent in the evaluation of those deals was the fact that the Blue Jays are in the playoffs and Anthopoulos' ability to rebuild the farm again. Had Anthopoulos not shown an ability to build a good farm system, his deals would be evaluated differently by fans. Again, this is sports. Not poker. Not business.

 

[Jyrki21]

3-0-1...... so not quite as good as you thought.

Which is also actually 2-0-2 (W/L/T) in "how the actual hockey games were played".

It still blows me away that people let shootout results color how well they see the team playing. You're letting Bettman win.

 

[Verviticus]

thats still a really good record though. im fairly sure no team post lockout has gotten over 75% of available points. even the 2011 canucks got 71.3%

 

[Verviticus]

i would like to note that keeping corrado is slowly looking like not only the right choice asset wise but also the right choice for that kids ****ing career. dude still hasn't gotten a game with the ****ing maple leafs, but at least babcock's "thought about it"

 

[coldsteel79]

I think the right choice was to send him down so he could be playing top 4 minutes. Which is what Jim wanted to do. Frank needs playing time not press box time. In jims interview about it he even said he hopes Frankie gets a lot of playing time in Toronto

 

[Jyrki21]

thats still a really good record though. im fairly sure no team post lockout has gotten over 75% of available points. even the 2011 canucks got 71.3%

For sure, but that's why it's also misleading to make it sound like the Canucks have outright won 3/4 of their games.

 

[WTG]

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1...rans-are-motivated-by-the-youngsters-1.378138

Benning's interview where he talks about the youngsters and Baertschi agent issue.

Seems like the Baertschi issue is a non-issue, Benning said that he and the agent were in agreement.

Also says that every youngster has passes their tests to stay in the lineup.

 

[Smokey McCanucks]

I had a dream that we traded away Burrows and Tanev for sweet f*** all...thank god it was only a dream, I was freaking out all like "dammit Benning this is the last straw." It seemed so real...