retention can increase value. i fully agree. but not because of the money and cap retained. it's all about how attractive the remaining contract/cap hit is on the market.
if you have player a signed for 3 years at 9m, but performing like a 4 million player and you retain 2m for the remaining term, the negative value gets smaller for sure. but only mildly because you won't find many suitors even if you are ready to compensate the taker of the cap dump.
if you have player b signed for 3 years at 4.5m, but performing like a 5 million player and you retain the same 2m, the positive values spikes. at 2.5m most teams in the league will be interested, as such a contract can be easily accommodated under nearly every teams cap structure and there will be a bidding war to acquire such a valuable piece, which increases the price.
the retention is in both cases the same. the value increase definitely not. therefore the value is not driven by the retention, it's driven by the remaining contract and the players current (and expected) ability/performance.
you still don't believe?
player c is paid 6m for 2 more years and he plays like a 6m player. the selling team is ready to retain 2m.
player d is paid 4m for 2 more years and plays like a 6m player. no retention is offered.
which player has more market value? why?
i would say, they have the same market value, as both are offering the same value for the same price. retention has zero effect for the buying party.
