GDT: Canes at Bolts

[AhosDatsyukian]

If your goal was to win games, you wouldn't. In fact, I'm confident that no NHL coach would right now.

• Staal is miles better than KK defensively.
• Staal's line is the best possession line on the team.
• KK is scoring at a rate worse than every member of Staal's line, while playing with the two most productive players on the team.
• KK's individual possession numbers aren't any better than Staal's, Martinook's or Fast's while playing against inferior competition with more o-zone starts.

Any coach that looks both at stats and eye test would not play that line over Staal's line based on KK's play to date.

I disagree that there is that much of a difference (yes Staal and his line have been better but not significantly enough to hinder our chances of winning enough games to make the playoffs) and Koko needs playing time to develop, we can afford to use Staal less during the regular season to keep him more fresh and ready for the playoffs. We need to start looking at the regular season the way the Bolts have since they flipped a switch after getting swept in round 1 as Presiden't Trophy winners. As long as we comfortably make it in the playoffs every single other move and decision should just be about getting the team ready for the playoffs. And playing Staal less in the regular season early like this would support that. I'd even give him some nights off and rotate Drury in

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

For what it's worth, Aho's shootout move last night is in fact my one and only shootout move in the EA NHL Series. Against CPU goalies it works with significant frequency. Also my in-game breakaway move.

 

[MinJaBen]

I won't pile on Andersen's struggles in regulation but he's been pretty rock solid in these last 2 shootouts

Yeah, I was sure we were going to lose the shootout when Tampa could go (and then did) with Stammer, Kooch, and Point. Stoned all three of them....you can't ask any more than that on the shootout.

 

[Stickpucker]

I was expecting TT to be a waste of a shooter in the shootout with the way he's been playing so far this season, but I think it's fair to compare him scoring a beautiful goal in the shootout (the first from the team in the shootout) with this scene:



Is TT back? Or is it too soon to hope?

TT sure looks good when there is no one out there skating with him and he doesn't have to win puck battles.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I won't pile on Andersen's struggles in regulation but he's been pretty rock solid in these last 2 shootouts

Last night I was really impressed with how he read the shooters. He knew exactly where they were going and made it look easy to stop them. Especially when you consider the caliber of players he faced.

 

[Stickpucker]

Last night I was really impressed with how he read the shooters. He knew exactly where they were going and made it look easy to stop them. Especially when you consider the caliber of players he faced.

I don't think there is a way to know this but it made me wonder if there is a correlation between goalies that are really good at saving high danger shots and their shoot out performances.

 

[AD Skinner]

I don't think there is a way to know this but it made me wonder if there is a correlation between goalies that are really good at saving high danger shots and their shoot out performances.

These stats are probably kept somewhere i just don't know how to access, but it would definitely be cool to see "good shootout goalie" quantified a bit more as I'm sure there must be a wide variance across the league. Could really help dispel some narratives (or possibly create some) about goalie performance and its correlation to team defense

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't think there is a way to know this but it made me wonder if there is a correlation between goalies that are really good at saving high danger shots and their shoot out performances.

No idea whether that theory would hold up statistically, but I feel like the skill sets he displays in those situations are very different. Freddie’s good at even strength because he’s a big body and reads the flow of an attack well enough to play the percentages. He’ll cut off the opponent’s best shot and force them to make a more difficult play. Whereas in the shootout he seemed to actually know where they were going with the puck, like he had the book on each individual shooter. I guess there’s a common element in both situations (understanding where the shot is coming from) but it’s two different ways of getting there.

Maybe we can say Freddie is just a smart goalie.

 

[The Faulker 27]

For what it's worth, Aho's shootout move last night is in fact my one and only shootout move in the EA NHL Series. Against CPU goalies it works with significant frequency. Also my in-game breakaway move.

Vasilevskiy is probably a robot so that makes sense.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Last night I was really impressed with how he read the shooters. He knew exactly where they were going and made it look easy to stop them. Especially when you consider the caliber of players he faced.

I noticed that too. I thought maybe those 3 might just not be great at shootouts but they are statistically all over 35%. Svech is 3rd all time in Canes shootout goals behind the juice and Matt Cullen.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I disagree that there is that much of a difference (yes Staal and his line have been better but not significantly enough to hinder our chances of winning enough games to make the playoffs) and Koko needs playing time to develop, we can afford to use Staal less during the regular season to keep him more fresh and ready for the playoffs. We need to start looking at the regular season the way the Bolts have since they flipped a switch after getting swept in round 1 as Presiden't Trophy winners. As long as we comfortably make it in the playoffs every single other move and decision should just be about getting the team ready for the playoffs. And playing Staal less in the regular season early like this would support that. I'd even give him some nights off and rotate Drury

I think you might have "I want KK to succeed" rose colored glasses on. Staal makes the guys he plays with better. KK is being made to look better because of who he plays with. I'm not saying KK won't improve long term, but if an NHL coach were in a situation where you have to choose. Stastny-KK-Noesen vs. Martinook-Staal-Fast as the 3rd line, I confident 32 out of 32 coaches would pick Martinook-Staal-Fast based on how the players are performing today.

Other points.
1) It isn't our 5v5 letting us down in the playoffs. It's abysmal special teams, losing our starting goalie (last season), and other teams having superior goaltending.
2) I'm fine with giving Staal some time off and spreading the TOI around. That doesn't necessitate playing him on the 4th line for the rest of the season.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I think you might have "I want KK to succeed" rose colored glasses on. Staal makes the guys he plays with better. KK is being made to look better because of who he plays with. I'm not saying KK won't improve long term, but if an NHL coach were in a situation where you have to choose. Stastny-KK-Noesen vs. Martinook-Staal-Fast as the 3rd line, I confident 32 out of 32 coaches would pick Martinook-Staal-Fast based on how the players are performing today.

Other points.
1) It isn't our 5v5 letting us down in the playoffs. It's abysmal special teams, losing our starting goalie (last season), and other teams having superior goaltending.
2) I'm fine with giving Staal some time off and spreading the TOI around. That doesn't necessitate playing him on the 4th line for the rest of the season.

It's not that "I want KK to succeed" it's that we invested a lot in him and need to put him in a position to succeed and develop because whether we like it or not at this point we have him for a long time. By your logic we shouldn't even be playing KK on the 2nd line right now. Rod has him playing a minute and half more per game than Staal right now, if Staal were that much better he'd be centering Svech and Necas and playing more minutes. In fact, JK is playing more 5v5 time than Aho... He's doing plenty of great things that set Svech and Necas up to have success on that line, even if it isn't showing up on the stat sheets or when he has the puck.

We are going to have to move someone down when Patches comes back, or play Patches in the bottom 6 which I don't think makes any sense (sure maybe for a few games as he gets up to speed and conditioned, but once he's settled he should be in the top 6). Yes Turbo and Jarvis are options, but if not one of them and we consider moving Necas to C then it's Jesperi. And if it's Jesperi you don't move him from being our top 5v5 C to rotting away on the 4th line with no minutes, you move him down one line.

I think part of our struggles against the Rags was Staal slowing down. He was great vs Boston but nowhere near the same against the Rags. Anything we can do to keep him well rested and fresh for a long playoff run I think we should do it.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

I think you might have "I want KK to succeed" rose colored glasses on. Staal makes the guys he plays with better. KK is being made to look better because of who he plays with. I'm not saying KK won't improve long term, but if an NHL coach were in a situation where you have to choose. Stastny-KK-Noesen vs. Martinook-Staal-Fast as the 3rd line, I confident 32 out of 32 coaches would pick Martinook-Staal-Fast based on how the players are performing today.

Other points.
1) It isn't our 5v5 letting us down in the playoffs. It's abysmal special teams, losing our starting goalie (last season), and other teams having superior goaltending.
2) I'm fine with giving Staal some time off and spreading the TOI around. That doesn't necessitate playing him on the 4th line for the rest of the season.

I think you might have “im secretly a Habs fan and I hate KK” poop colored glasses on. Lol

 

[bleedgreen]

I disagree that there is that much of a difference (yes Staal and his line have been better but not significantly enough to hinder our chances of winning enough games to make the playoffs) and Koko needs playing time to develop, we can afford to use Staal less during the regular season to keep him more fresh and ready for the playoffs. We need to start looking at the regular season the way the Bolts have since they flipped a switch after getting swept in round 1 as Presiden't Trophy winners. As long as we comfortably make it in the playoffs every single other move and decision should just be about getting the team ready for the playoffs. And playing Staal less in the regular season early like this would support that. I'd even give him some nights off and rotate Drury in

I second the Koko rose colored desperately want him to succeed theory. Or poop glasses theory. They can both work.


I would sub Koko out for Drury before Staal and you know the coach agrees. When Patches come back I’d even try Necas at center. That’s what he wants and he’s earning it. Koko isn’t making that line better, he’s barely hanging on. He’s winning draws which is crucial. Other than that he’s just doing simple and smart things, and not finishing.

Great game last night, we keep answering the bell which is huge. Everyone was pitching in, and the shootout was amazing. Moving on.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's not that "I want KK to succeed" it's that we invested a lot in him and need to put him in a position to succeed and develop because whether we like it or not at this point we have him for a long time. By your logic we shouldn't even be playing KK on the 2nd line right now.

No, that's not at all what I said. I said if choosing between your two hypothetical 3rd/4th lines, that Rod and likely every other coach in the NHL would reverse what you put.

I don't want KK moved from the 2nd line right now. The line is effective and even though I don't think much of it has to do with him, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". I certainly want him to be successful and feel we need more production and impact on the game from a 2C to be a serious contender. Hopefully he'll hit a stride and it won't be an issue. That's where I'm coming from.

Rod has him playing a minute and half more per game than Staal right now, if Staal were that much better he'd be centering Svech and Necas and playing more minutes. In fact, JK is playing more 5v5 time than Aho... He's doing plenty of great things that set Svech and Necas up to have success on that line, even if it isn't showing up on the stat sheets or when he has the puck.

He's playing that much more 5v5 for 3 reasons.
1) he's playing with the two best wingers on the team and they are going to get the most 5v5 TOI, so thus he is also.
2) He is the only center that does not PK, so he many times comes out after a PK, and to balance out ice time.
3) He's on the 2nd unit PP time, thus special teams isn't creating too much TOI for him.

We'll disagree about what "great things" he's doing and leave it at that.

 

[Stickpucker]

No idea whether that theory would hold up statistically, but I feel like the skill sets he displays in those situations are very different. Freddie’s good at even strength because he’s a big body and reads the flow of an attack well enough to play the percentages. He’ll cut off the opponent’s best shot and force them to make a more difficult play. Whereas in the shootout he seemed to actually know where they were going with the puck, like he had the book on each individual shooter. I guess there’s a common element in both situations (understanding where the shot is coming from) but it’s two different ways of getting there.

Maybe we can say Freddie is just a smart goalie.

I'm getting old and my memory is fuzzy but I vaguely recall someone talking last season about how Andersen's GSAA(e?) in HD chances was highest % in the league and he's also been a really good shoot out goalie.

I would guess being a big goalie who can read the flow of the play and cut off an opponents best shot is a good thing in 5v5 and the shootout. Maybe not as much in 5v4 when you need to worry about one timers on the off side.

I was also thinking about Ward and how he seemed really bad in the shootout and was wondering how his numbers were at high danger chances.

Then it made me more curious about how it works across the league and if there is a fancy stat people are using to evaluate goalies for their potential shootout prowess. Going back didn't we lose a lot of points in the shootout seasons back?

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm getting old and my memory is fuzzy but I vaguely recall someone talking last season about how Andersen's GSAA(e?) in HD chances was highest % in the league and he's also been a really good shoot out goalie.

I would guess being a big goalie who can read the flow of the play and cut off an opponents best shot is a good thing in 5v5 and the shootout. Maybe not as much in 5v4 when you need to worry about one timers on the off side.

I was also thinking about Ward and how he seemed really bad in the shootout and was wondering how his numbers were at high danger chances.

Then it made me more curious about how it works across the league and if there is a fancy stat people are using to evaluate goalies for their potential shootout prowess. Going back didn't we lose a lot of points in the shootout seasons back?

Given the quality of teams he played behind, my guess is that Ward must have had a high save% in high danger situations because otherwise he would have been out of the league.

 

[Stickpucker]

I think you might have "I want KK to succeed" rose colored glasses on. Staal makes the guys he plays with better. KK is being made to look better because of who he plays with. I'm not saying KK won't improve long term, but if an NHL coach were in a situation where you have to choose. Stastny-KK-Noesen vs. Martinook-Staal-Fast as the 3rd line, I confident 32 out of 32 coaches would pick Martinook-Staal-Fast based on how the players are performing today.

Other points.
1) It isn't our 5v5 letting us down in the playoffs. It's abysmal special teams, losing our starting goalie (last season), and other teams having superior goaltending.
2) I'm fine with giving Staal some time off and spreading the TOI around. That doesn't necessitate playing him on the 4th line for the rest of the season.

I don't want to nitpick but I would split point one into two separate points.

Starting goalie -- losing Andersen probably hurt but Raanta was pretty damn good last season. The Avs won the cup with a below average starter. I will give you Shitsterkin and Vasi are superior to our starter...but that is something we likely won't remedy.

Special teams -- yep the fell off. I'm still concerned. Do you think it's more of a systems problem or personnel problem? Our PK was almost historically good in the regular season. Maybe we need to adjust more to what our opponent is doing with the PK? You mentioned Daniels has run the PP for the last few years and it seems a little lack luster all things considered. Do you think we should bring in another mind to run the PP? or do we need some personnel who are more PP specialists at the NHL level? I'd say that trotting someone other Pesce out on pp2 would be a step in the right direction but the only options on the roster are Coglan (hasn't looked good so far) or Skjei who I think has a more offensive mind than Pesce but isn't getting the time....I'm not sure why? Conditioning??

 

[Joe McGrath]

If you want to use the rose colored glasses on KK, he caused the turnover that lead to Jarvis’ goal. He didn’t get a point but that’s an example of the types of positive plays he’s making without getting on the scoresheet.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

the kk convo is now officially boring

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't want to nitpick but I would split point one into two separate points.

Starting goalie -- losing Andersen probably hurt but Raanta was pretty damn good last season. The Avs won the cup with a below average starter. I will give you Shitsterkin and Vasi are superior to our starter...but that is something we likely won't remedy.

that's fair.

Special teams -- yep the fell off. I'm still concerned. Do you think it's more of a systems problem or personnel problem? Our PK was almost historically good in the regular season. Maybe we need to adjust more to what our opponent is doing with the PK? You mentioned Daniels has run the PP for the last few years and it seems a little lack luster all things considered. Do you think we should bring in another mind to run the PP? or do we need some personnel who are more PP specialists at the NHL level? I'd say that trotting someone other Pesce out on pp2 would be a step in the right direction but the only options on the roster are Coglan (hasn't looked good so far) or Skjei who I think has a more offensive mind than Pesce but isn't getting the time....I'm not sure why? Conditioning??

I wish I knew why. Clearly in the playoffs you are going against the best, so it's going to be harder to maintain a high level of PK that you had in the regular season which is against, on average, worse competition. Also goaltending plays a role even if Raanta was pretty good, he was injured and struggled at times and Kuch wasn't as good as either.

I wonder both on the PK and PP (where we don't have elite talent), that when you get to the playoffs, teams have 7 games against you so they spend more time scouting out tendencies and adjust accordingly to take advantage of it? Just speculating.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

the kk convo is now officially boring

As is the Staal to the 4th line convo.

I know, I should just let it go, but right now with the team at 7-2-1, all we kinda have is boring.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

As is the Staal to the 4th line convo.

I know, I should just let it go, but right now with the team at 7-2-1, all we kinda have is boring.

Or, you know, satisfaction at being really f***ing good.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

We're a freaking good team. We're not even playing at our absolute best, and we're 7-2-1 with Turbo and KK both having unusually-bad shooting luck. If we win tonight (not guaranteed, because it's really difficult to cool down red-hot teams), our record will be better than the much-vaunted village-burning Devils. Now's not the time to bitch and complain.

The one thing that somewhat worries me is that the entire trio of Hamilton/Trocheck/DeAngelo went over to teams inside our division. They've done a really phenomenal job at getting reinforcements to stay on top, but it's still a bit risky as far as inter-divisional dynamics are concerned to have all of that talent directly feeding our main competitors.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Or, you know, satisfaction at being really f***ing good.

I am satisfied with them being really f***ing good. I also know there are areas they can still improve in, which is a positive.