Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[habsfan891]

How do you figure that's his absolute best case projection?

30+ guys scored 80 or more points last season.

59 scored 70 or more.

Take a look at the list. In his draft year, Leonard is way ahead of tonnes of them with, I would argue, more potential/likelihood of reaching his potential.

The kid has decent size, strong skating, a good shot, good hands, obvious playmaking skills, and obvious talent. He also attacks the middle. I think that alone gives him obvious top 60 scoring upside, and not pie in the sky there's a sliver of a chance he can do it upside.

Throw in his obvious drive/will and he's the kind of guy who can out produce his perceived upside. He's unlikely to ever challenge for the Art Ross (though who the hell would have thought Jamie Benn would win one), but I think there's a very realistic chance for him to be a ppg type guy (based on current scoring levels).

I hope your right if we pick him but I think your overrating his playmaking and I don't see him scoring 60 goals a season to reach ppg level

 

[Skip Bayless]

Arpon was on the radio here in Vancouver (starts around the 49:45 mark):

Canucks Talk

Jamie Dodd and Canucks Reporter Thomas Drance combine to bring you the most in-depth Canucks coverage in Vancouver. They dive into all the issues that matter for any Canucks fan. Plus, hear exclusive interviews from the players and the team to stay up to date all season long.

www.sportsnet.ca

- one interesting tidbit was the thought is Arizona wants Reinbacher bad. If you make them think you're taking him, could be a pick swap opportunity here. My thought: maybe try to get our 2024 2nd back that we pissed away in the Dvorak deal? We then take Leonard at 6.

I can see this happening.

If you see the Reinbacher talk ramp up hours before the draft, think of this. It would take more than our 2nd rounder in 2024 though.

 

[ReHabs]

They definitely think he has PPG upside. Many might not project it but nobody out there thinks he doesn't have the potential to do it. He's too skilled and determined.

Going by probability, most of the top 5 won't achieve consistent year-to-year PPG production.

But seriously, imagine if he has something close to a Joe Pavelski type of career with consistent 75+ points seasons (had 77 this year) and provides great leadership and other intangibles such as extreme grit. You'd take that any day at #5. We're really splitting hairs on the magical PPG benchmark for success.

Joe Pavelski and Brad Marchand are two of the best players of the modern era. It's a bit rich to compare this prospect to them and expect to be taken seriously when you downplay other prospects' top-end ceiling. If Leonard can be Pavelski, Reinbacher can be Ryan Suter, and Smith can be, oh I dunno, you name it.

 

[AHShadow]

If the Habs do pass on Michkov, that won't be the only reason. It won't even be a primary reason.

Obviously it doesn't mean it's 100% true, but from what Arpon said, it's mainly cause of his hockey evaluation that they don't want to draft him. I'd also add that the fact they can't control his development as much also plays into this, but not the rest of the non-hockey stuff.

 

[David Suzuki]

I can see this happening.

If you see the Reinbacher talk ramp up hours before the draft, think of this. It would take more than our 2nd rounder in 2024 though.

maybe they can take dvorak back so i don’t have to see him lol

 

[AHShadow]

The preponderance of scouts and analysts do not think Leonard has PPG+ upside. It might happen, like it did with Marchand, but it isn't likely that every prospect ends up beyond his expected pre-draft ceiling -- so what are the odds that OUR prospect ends up beyond his pre-draft ceiling.

If we pick him, I sure hope it happens.

I do think Leonard has a PPG ceiling, albeit I don't think it'll be easy to reach. EP did a great analysis on him saying that he's almost a surefire top 6 winger that will control play, but if he's able to improve on some stuff like playmaking, he can definitely become that #1 winger ala Marchand.

If you think about it, maybe Hughes does want to create the Pastrnak - Bergeron and Marchand line, but realistically, all of Caufield/Slaf and Suzuki and Leonard will need to significantly improve to be anywhere close to this line.

That's why I'm still on the Michkov camp as cause his ceiling is higher than any of our current players and prospects.

 

[yianik]

I don't see why not, he's 18 so it's not like he's going to be this size when he's 25.

He knocks guys flat. If he puts on a few inches and some pounds then sure, but if he stays at 5'11" it's not a good idea to play at 220.

I mean he's bigger, faster and more skilled than Gallagher. So there is potential for sure. I'm just wondering if he can't continue playing as physical a game, will that throw off the rest of the game. For Gallagher it was no, but he just took on severe punishment to hang in and score, but that's not Leonard or anybody else. You suggest he is like Marchand which would be great. Just wondering.

 

[HabbyGuy]

I do think Leonard has a PPG ceiling, albeit I don't think it'll be easy to reach. EP did a great analysis on him saying that he's almost a surefire top 6 winger that will control play, but if he's able to improve on some stuff like playmaking, he can definitely become that #1 winger ala Marchand.

If you think about it, maybe Hughes does want to create the Pastrnak - Bergeron and Marchand line, but realistically, all of Caufield/Slaf and Suzuki and Leonard will need to significantly improve to be anywhere close to this line.

That's why I'm still on the Michkov camp as cause his ceiling is higher than any of our current players and prospects.

This! 100 percent. This is the perfect summation.

 

[ReHabs]

Says who? As I mentioned above, is Lehkonen some big hulking bruiser? You've brought up Shaw before, he's about the same size or a little smaller than Lehkonen and Leonard too, and Shaw never struggled to engage physically as an NHLer. You don't need to blow people up to create separation, cut to the middle, or play physically, there are tons of players around 5'11 or 6'0 who are very effective forecheckers who use physical play to create space and then skate into it.

Physicality is part of his game, but Leonard is not being drafted "for" his size or to be a "big" player in the same way as Wood or Anderson or Slaf or whoever else we could care to mention. His projection/upside is primarily about his skill/skating/hands, and the physical element is an additional piece which allows him to unlock more value from his skating, shot, and hands than if he were RHP's size and forced to rely predominantly on elusiveness. He's big enough to get a step or a half-step ahead where he'll outskate defenders, he doesn't need to put a defender on his ass every single play to have success.

Shaw gave himself brain damage from his play style. Because he wasn't strong and large enough to play like he intended to play.

In terms of stats, Leonard's hands and skills got him to be third of three on his line. Incredible.

Maybe it's worth remembering: we tanked to get the 5OA pick. Is Leonard really the sort of prospect you tank to get? Maybe he is.

Get a grip. I never compared Crosby to Leonard stop making ridiculous claim and make it sounds smart. The point was about thr incredible strength that showcased at 5'11 and nothing to do with their ability. Your agenda is tiresome, one minute you claim he is too small but I provide you of evidence about players smaller than your average NHL that are strong on ice and you claim this is not the norm? Guess what, Leonard is not the norm either, he is not ranked 6th overall by NHL scouts because he can deliver hits. There are way more nuance to his game.

To answer your question about him possible being more than ppg. 100% yes. No doubt in my mind, he is not less talented than Marchand and his compete is at the highest level.

How can you be definitive that Leonard could not play a power game in the NHL? From everything I have read and learn about the kid show unparraled work ethic and competitiveness.

Well, since you're so sure he's a PPG, it's bound to happen. Who cares that he physically will not be able to play 82 games and playoff series like he does in his current league, or that he scored a whole 1/4th less points than his linemates. Small stuff.

 

[habdynasty]

Benson will be available.

A good Canadian boy who does what he's told and never complains.

Maybe he would like to play on a Canadian team. You know the Canadiens

 

[Schooner Guy]

View attachment 720223
Obviously it doesn't mean it's 100% true, but from what Arpon said, it's mainly cause of his hockey evaluation that they don't want to draft him. I'd also add that the fact they can't control his development as much also plays into this, but not the rest of the non-hockey stuff.

Agreed that even without the Russian factor, their hockey evaluation of him may be enough for the Habs to prefer a different option at #5. I just don't think the Cole Caufield similarities is a primary reason and has more to do with the high quality options that will be on the table at #5. The high degree of uncertainty will also always be there.

 

[Schooner Guy]

In terms of stats, Leonard's hands and skills got him to be third of three on his line. Incredible.

Again, you're caught up and lost in the offensive stats of 18 year olds because you seem unwilling or unable to grasp that so many other factors in a prospect's attributes determine projection at the next level. In his draft year, Jonathan Drouin had 105 points and was CHL player of the year. His Mooseheads linemate Nathan MacKinnon had 75 points. MacKinnon went #1 overall because of where evaluators projected his game at the NHL level. Number 29 was hands down the right choice at pick #1.

Guess who was 3rd in points on that aforementioned Mooseheads line? The hometown boy MacKinnon was.

 

[Runner77]

Arpon was on the radio here in Vancouver (starts around the 49:45 mark):

Canucks Talk

Jamie Dodd and Canucks Reporter Thomas Drance combine to bring you the most in-depth Canucks coverage in Vancouver. They dive into all the issues that matter for any Canucks fan. Plus, hear exclusive interviews from the players and the team to stay up to date all season long.

www.sportsnet.ca

- if they do pick Michkov, hats off to them because it will be one of the greatest smokescreens ever
- one interesting tidbit was the thought is Arizona wants Reinbacher bad. If you make them think you're taking him, could be a pick swap opportunity here. My thought: maybe try to get our 2024 2nd back that we pissed away in the Dvorak deal? We then take Leonard at 6.

Good find.

So basically, while our guys are playing 5D chess and not revealing anything, the poverty franchise in Arizona runs a leaky ship that gave their game plan away? If reliable, you gotta love it.

Although, what if it doesn’t matter and the Habs are set on selecting Reinbacher? This draft could go so many ways for us, I’m loving the intrigue.

 

[Runner77]

maybe they can take dvorak back so i don’t have to see him lol

There isn’t enough crater filler to make Dvorak’s fugly mug remotely digestible.

Where’s a good repellent when you need one.

 

[Gravity]

View attachment 720223
Obviously it doesn't mean it's 100% true, but from what Arpon said, it's mainly cause of his hockey evaluation that they don't want to draft him. I'd also add that the fact they can't control his development as much also plays into this, but not the rest of the non-hockey stuff.

Neither is Kucherov, guess we shouldn't want him either.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Shaw gave himself brain damage from his play style. Because he wasn't strong and large enough to play like he intended to play.

In terms of stats, Leonard's hands and skills got him to be third of three on his line. Incredible.

Maybe it's worth remembering: we tanked to get the 5OA pick. Is Leonard really the sort of prospect you tank to get? Maybe he is.

Well, since you're so sure he's a PPG, it's bound to happen. Who cares that he physically will not be able to play 82 games and playoff series like he does in his current league, or that he scored a whole 1/4th less points than his linemates. Small stuff.

Yes just like Matthew Tkachuk was so bad because he was the less productive player on his line (Dvorak & Marner), how can people rated him? Just a glorified grinder.

Or what about the key role he has to play on his line?

 

[ReHabs]

Yes just like Matthew Tkachuk was so bad because he was the less productive player on his line (Dvorak & Marner), how can people rated him? Just a glorified grinder.

Or what about the key role he has to play on his line?

Matthew Tkachuk, Joe Pavelski, Brad Marchand. Do you accept these players are all exceptional?

Can we extend these generous projections toward Will Smith or Matvei Michkov, perhaps?

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Matthew Tkachuk, Joe Pavelski, Brad Marchand. Do you accept these players are all exceptional?

Can we extend these generous projections toward Will Smith or Matvei Michkov, perhaps?

Wow! Who here said Michkov or Smith were bad? They are awesome and I would love to have them on the team. I would also love to have Leonard on that team. You are the one making it a big deal if they decide to go with Leonard instead of your prefered choice.

 

[SlafySZN]

Once and for all, Leonard is not small.

He is 6’ 192lbs.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Wow! Who here said Michkov or Smith were bad? They are awesome and I would love to have them on the team. I would also love to have Leonard on that team. You are the one making it a big deal if they decide to go with Leonard instead of your prefered choice.

I just don't see Leonard having the playmaking, creativity, and hockey sense to be a huge producer at the NHL level. He'll be useful, and he'll probably be a good player, but do you draft the potential good player or do you draft a superstar?

I've heard the Matthew Tkachuk comparables and I don't see it. I just don't see a 5'11" guy being a dominant physical force in the NHL. Highly, highly unlikely.

 

[Andrei79]

View attachment 720223
Obviously it doesn't mean it's 100% true, but from what Arpon said, it's mainly cause of his hockey evaluation that they don't want to draft him. I'd also add that the fact they can't control his development as much also plays into this, but not the rest of the non-hockey stuff.

This line of reasoning is hard for me to get behind. They won't get the benefit of the doubt if Michkov goes on to be a star.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I just don't see Leonard having the playmaking, creativity, and hockey sense to be a huged producer at the NHL level. He'll be useful, and he'll probably be a good player, but do you draft the potential good player or do you draft a superstar?

I've heard the Matthew Tkachuk comparables and I don't see it. I just don't see a 5'11" guy being a dominant physical force in the NHL. Highly, highly unlikely.

I disagree, it's not truly about size, it's about the mentality and desire. Leonard has that in him, he plays larger than he is and he is 6' 190+ people here talk about him like he is gallagher size. He has enough size to be effective because of his competitive nature. If you put him in a corner he will most often than not get away with the puck. His shot is also very good, quick with deceptiveness.
If you ask me who I chose between Michkov or Leonard, I would go with the Russian that being said of they go with Leonard I would not lose sleep about it.

 

[Andrei79]

I disagree, it's not truly about size, it's about the mentality and desire. Leonard has that in him, he plays larger than he is and he is 6' 190+ people here talk about him like he is gallagher size. He has enough size to be effective because of his competitive nature. If you put him in a corner he will most often than not get away with the puck. His shot is also very good, quick with deceptiveness.
If you ask me who I chose between Michkov or Leonard, I would go with the Russian that being said of they go with Leonard I would not lose sleep about it.

He's built like Adam Deadmarsh and Peter Forsberg, guys the same size who were extremely hard to contain.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

I’m not sure about anyone here but I don’t have much confidence in this management and scouting group.

 

[Runner77]

How the plot thickens. I believe this is usually a Kings pundit: