Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[Shutdown]

It's not important who from 9 to 19. In a normal situation, a player like him (with poor skating) should not be ranked suddently that high just for the reason of recent success. It just show how bad that administration was and how desperate they were drafting from position center vs BPA.

I guess from 9 to 19 half of these players became busts. Drafting is a lottery.

You realize this makes no sense? You're saying he shouldn't have been ranked in the top 10-20 because guys who have proven to be busts deserved to be ranked higher.

 

[OnTheRun]

It's not important who from 9 to 19. In a normal situation, a player like him (with poor skating) should not be ranked suddently that high just for the reason of recent success. It just show how bad that administration was and how desperate they were drafting from position center vs BPA.

I guess from 9 to 19 half of these players became busts. Drafting is a lottery.

I mean, c'mon... That's how the draft always worked. Player have ONE year to make their mark, with 2~3 event during that calendar year that will have a huge positive or negative impact on their final perceived value/ranking.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

You realize this makes no sense? You're saying he shouldn't have been ranked in the top 10-20 because guys who have proven to be busts deserved to be ranked higher.

Maybe I made a typing mistake. I wrote he should have been ranked 10 to 20. His skills, coupled with his flaws makes him a candidate between 10 to 20.

 

[CHwest]

Hughes, Romanov for Da

Kopitar, Bergeron are not true superstar forward in the offense sense of the word but I take them over many pure offense star forwards like Marner for sure.

Sure let's play:
Crosby, Ovechkin, MacKinnon, Stamkos, Modano, Lecavalier, Staal, Kane were all 1st overall.
Malkin 2nd overall.

In all the players you listed for what? 3 decades+ Only Rantanen, Forsberg, Kopitar, Sakic were drafted outside the top 5 and were 1st round pick.

All the other names you listed were drafted outside the 1st round. So the chances are about 4 out of around 600 hundred to land a superstar forward outside the top 5 that won a cup. There is a very slim chances.

Let's say in 2023 the players who become superstar in the 1st round are Wood or a Stenberg and are both drafted outside top 10 are we going to re-visit this draft and say with clear certainty we missed the boat by not drafting them at 5th overall instead of higher rated prospect like Smith, Benson or Dvorsky?

The key is finding gems outside the 1st round, this is were you can accelerate a rebuild. You listed many players, we just need one or two to reach that level.

Like Stone from Vegas.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

I mean, c'mon... That's how the draft always worked. Player have ONE year to make their mark, with 2~3 event during that calendar year that will have a huge positive or negative impact on their final perceived value/ranking.

Well, I will bring a new word : Intangible. There are players with intangibles, it's a quality we can't strip or remove from a player. Some are very fast skaters and nobody in the world would say the opposite. Some are built strong (Tkachuk), some have high IQ on the ice (Suzuki), some are defensive specialits, some have leadership, etc. In the case of Kotkaniemi ; I can't name one intangible. Not one thing I can say for sure about him, except his size and his center position.

I wasn't a scout at the time, neither you were and all the posters here. But I like to put a tag on a players, his intangible, something I'm 100% sure about him. And from there, we can make projections and built something with a plan.

 

[OnTheRun]

Well, I will bring a new word : Intangible. There are players with intangibles, it's a quality we can't strip or remove from a player. Some are very fast skaters and nobody in the world would say the opposite. Some are built strong (Tkachuk), some have high IQ on the ice (Suzuki), some are defensive specialits, some have leadership, etc. In the case of Kotkaniemi ; I can't name one intangible. Not one thing I can say for sure about him, except his size and his center position.

I wasn't a scout at the time, neither you were and all the posters here. But I like to put a tag on a players, his intangible, something I'm 100% sure about him. And from there, we can make projections and built something with a plan.

That is literally the opposite of the definition of intangible.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I'm not advocating that we need to keep rebuilding until we get a top 5 player in the league, but we absolutely need at least one player at any position being top 10 in the league. The Blues roster clearly wasn't sustainable as they haven't even gotten close to that success afterwards.

Yeah the thing with the Blues was they won in a year where Pietrangelo and O'Reilly both played like top 10 players at their position (and ROR was a top 5C that year, who you could realistically argue as high as top 2 in that season) but since that year they haven't had a player reach that same level and the results are pretty clear.

Blues, Bruins, Kings, Red Wings, Ducks.
Maybe Vegas this year.

Blues are the only one you could argue and they had Pietrangelo and ROR having career years in the season they won. The other four absolutely do not count. Bruins had Chara who is one of the best pure defenders to ever play the game, they got a supernova performance from Tim Thomas, and had Bergeron who's the best two way forward of all time. The Kings had Quick, Kopitar, and Doughty who were all top 5 at their positions during their peak window.

Detroit I have no idea how you'd say this, they had Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Niklas Lidstrom. If the 2nd best defenceman of all time is "no distinct superstar" I'm not really sure what we're even talking about at this point. Same with the Ducks, they had Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. Both were first ballot hall of famers, Niedermayer inside the top 20 all time at his position and you could put Pronger as high as the top 10. I get that you were talking about forwards but that's pretty arbitrary if your argument is that roster balance is more important when you're talking about a team that had the 2nd best defenceman of all time, or a team with two all-time greats who are both easily inside the top 20 dmen of all time.

 

[SlafySZN]

What the hell are you talking about?

I'm just pushing back against the stupid hindsight shit this board loves to do. Every pick that isn't the best pick they could have possibly made at that spot is stupid, and 5 years later everyone knew that that was the guy. The majority of this fan base was all in on Zadina. There were very few Brady supporters and I know who they are/were. Zadinas comments on filling the Habs and Sens nets with pucks didn't come from being ranked below Brady and KK in most rankings. He "fell" to Detroit.

I think they should do the easy thing and take one of the top 5 that is left and call it a day, but no the Habs made the right call on Galchenyuk and nobody was pushing for Filip Forsberg or Morgan Rielly. Most of the board wanted Zadina, a few wanted Kotkaniemi, a few wanted Hughes, a few wanted Tkachuk and a few wanted Boqvist.

The Habs also tried to trade down to take KK and couldn't because Ottawa wasn't moving and Arizona was taking a center, specifically. They reached further on Hayton than we did on KK.

The hindsight on this board just gets nauseating. Everyone seemingly knew better at the time now that the progression and careers have played out.

Also NHL teams scouts don’t look at internet scouts lists and say to themselves omg twitter tells me the concensus is so and so we absolutely should ignore our own lists and take this guy lol

 

[WeThreeKings]

Also NHL teams scouts don’t look at internet scouts lists and say to themselves omg twitter tells me the concensus is so and so we absolutely should ignore our own lists and take this guy lol

I guess the NHL should just follow Bob's list and then no one here would complain. Until of course, who they got busted or was outperformed by someone later on.

 

[Belial]

HF Habs: - Draft 2018: What are your immediate draft class feelings?

Early and reactionary I know, but what are your initial feelings? Thrilled: Kotkaniemi Fonstad (great value) Happy: Ylonen Olofsson (not much offensive upside but safe bet) Hillis McShane Meh: Gorniak Harris What?: Romanov (too early) Houde

forums.hfboards.com

Go through and see how many people were mad or saying we didn't take BPA for Tkachuk.

And you can stop by and laugh at me for liking Olofsson and Hillis so much.

Good old Nikita, the Shark!... Eh

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I guess the NHL should just follow Bob's list and then no one here would complain. Until of course, who they got busted or was outperformed by someone later on.

Actually Bob's list is attempting to follow the NHL's list since it is a compilation of scouts ratings.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Russians young players who died mysteriously over the years. 30 cases here exposed.
Journal de Montreal link (in french)

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2023/05/25/pourquoi-ces-30-joueurs-russes-sont-ils-morts

So many heart attacks/problems is a sign of a stressful environment. These kids probably had generalized anxiety, lack of response from the parasympathetic side of the CNS.

 

[sampollock]

to this day... KK pick stills ticks me off

 

[WeThreeKings]

Good old Nikita, the Shark!... Eh

When Boston was at the podium I was stoked, we were getting Pasta or Scherbak.

 

[Belial]

When Boston was at the podium I was stoked, we were getting Pasta or Scherbak.

What a potential historical change pick that was...

Shit like this makes me believe in karma and gullible stuff lmao

 

[OnTheRun]

Actually Bob's list is attempting to follow the NHL's list since it is a compilation of scouts ratings.

Yes and no, Bob's list is loose coalition of anonymous NHL scouts, there is merit in that since they can give their unfiltered opinions, but it cannot fully emulate team's list that is result of their own internal consensus and come with their own internal bias.

 

[Runner77]

to this day... KK pick stills ticks me off

You ought to be more ticked off at the poster who dubbed him “KoKo”.

If you’re ticked off by that, plenty more where it came from. Sometimes it’s just best to look ahead.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Yes and no, Bob's list is loose coalition of anonymous NHL scouts, there is merit in that since they can give their unfiltered opinions, but it cannot fully emulate team'sd list that is result of their own internal consensus and come with their own internal bias.

Exactly. That's why I said attempting. If he is using around 10 scouts ratings and even those scouts haven't seen all the potential draftees it's going to be a very broad approximation. The top 3-5 he can relatively accurately predict like Slafkovsky/Wright but the rest may vary considerably.
I wonder where Michkov will appear on his list?

 

[Colezuki]

Yes and no, Bob's list is loose coalition of anonymous NHL scouts, there is merit in that since they can give their unfiltered opinions, but it cannot fully emulate team's list that is result of their own internal consensus and come with their own internal bias.

To echo this, last year 5 teams had slaf first, 4 had wright and 1 had Cooley. Bob's list says Slaf, But one of the other 5 gets to the podium and takes Cooley else and suddenly there off the board but they're was never a consensus. Now go look at that for Pick 5-10 and it starts to break down harder and harder.

Edit: These are people too, what happens if a kid during his interview tells the GM to F off but in another he's perfect. His talent says he's 5th but for one GM now he's a 3 and for the other hes a DND

 

[OnTheRun]

To echo this, last year 5 teams had slaf first, 4 had wright and 1 had Cooley. Bob's list says Slaf, But one of the other 5 gets to the podium and takes Cooley else and suddenly there off the board but they're was never a consensus. Now go look at that for Pick 5-10 and it starts to break down harder and harder.

Edit: These are people too, what happens if a kid during his interview tells the GM to F off but in another he's perfect. His talent says he's 5th but for one GM now he's a 3 and for the other hes a DND

It is something fans tend to be oblivious to. It's guarantee that every single guy projected to go in the first 2 rounds will have had multiple informal interaction with regional scouts, if the kid left a bad impression then it will hurt his stock with that team. Same with the formal pre-draft interview, if the guy come across as borderline hostile or disinterested during the interview, the team will take that in consideration.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

It is something fans tend to be oblivious to. It's guarantee that every single guy projected to go in the first 2 rounds will have had multiple informal interaction with regional scouts, if the kid left a bad impression then it will hurt his stock with that team. Same with the formal pre-draft interview, if the guy come across as borderline hostile or disinterested during the interview, the team will take that in consideration.

It will be taken into account by smart GM's. Who was the player that Habs drafted in the first round that other teams that hr interviewed with considered him to be an idiot..
Edit: I believe it might have been Fischer.

 

[OnTheRun]

It will be taken into account by smart GM's. Who was the player that Habs drafted in the first round that other teams that hr interviewed with considered him to be an idiot..
Edit: I believe it might have been Fischer.

The only thing I remember about Fischer is the Habs regional scout was supposely very high on him, so yeah good impression will also play a role into one team's list.

 

[WinterLion]

It will be taken into account by smart GM's. Who was the player that Habs drafted in the first round that other teams that hr interviewed with considered him to be an idiot..
Edit: I believe it might have been Fischer.

Yes that was Fischer 100%. Bad pick, but at least we got a 2nd when we didn't sign him.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I swear... if we pick Leonard or Reinbacher or anyone NOT top 5 consensus, I will flip my shit.

Remember how well Kotkaniemi turned out for us, since we were too smart for BPA consensus? "Ew, avoid Tkachuk, he sucked with Boston University".

It's one of Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith. That's it. No others.

These aren't really comparable situations, and this kind of cherry picking goes both ways. Remember how well Zadina turned out for Detroit, who was able to snag a consensus BPA (who most on this board wanted to take at 3) at 6th overall? There just isn't really any comparison between KK and Leonard or Reinbacher or Benson as prospects, and there's even less similarity between Smith and Tkachuk (if anything Leonard is the closest thing to a "Tkachuk" pick where you're valuing pro traits over flash and numbers). That doesn't mean I think they're all guaranteed to be better either, I just don't think there's any real similarities between the situations. We may as well compare Drouin and E. Lindholm or any other random two prospects to support whatever point either of us feel like making.

But you know what? I hope we pick Reinbacher or whoever else outside of the "big 5", just to please you. Because you clearly know so much more, and are fully invested in the mediocrity this team has been feeding its fans for so long.

Reinbacher is not a "mediocrity" pick. I have no idea where this idea that he has a low ceiling is coming from. We just watched Jeff Petry and Shea Weber play as top pair defencemen for the better part of a decade and neither player is what anyone would call "dynamic", yet when drafting for the future we're writing off anyone that isn't just doing dipsy doodles in the CHL? You are asserting a "tier" drop that isn't actually there and getting upset about "mediocrity" based on a flawed premise. Smith is a very good prospect and I will be absolutely thrilled to have him, but he is not some rock solid slam dunk that is a clear tier above Reinbacher, Benson, or possibly even Leonard in my opinion. FWIW I would personally have Smith 2nd behind Reinbacher if Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov end up being the first 4 picks, I really like him a lot I just don't see him as a tier above personally.

I don't get this line of argument with Reinbacher specifically, because the numbers are there with him! It's not even like Reinbacher is one of those "you have to trust the scouts" guys, even if you're just stat watching and haven't watched a second of his tape, he put up 22P in 46 games playing 1st pair minutes in a legitimate pro league as a draft eligible defenceman with size (in the same league where Josi had 8P in his draft year).

I think it's all a moot point anyway. I am extremely doubtful that the Habs would pass on Smith if he's available and that's fine. Michkov we'll see, but I don't think we'll have any way of knowing where they sit on him before the draft actually happens and they would not be passing on him for on-ice reasons anyway so I'm just not going to bother getting wound up about it.

 

[Runner77]

Yes that was Fischer 100%. Bad pick, but at least we got a 2nd when we didn't sign him.

Fischer Price was never to be.

Both taken in the first round of successive drafts.