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Prospect Info: Can the Canes find another Pesce/Slavin

SvechniCanesCup2019 said:


Canes interviewing a Defenseman ranked in the late 1st or early 2nd. What does your PSF say about Ryan Johnson? The scouting reports I find sound... familiar.

Effortless 4-way skater known for his gap control, an active stick, and his defensive awareness in shutting down passing lanes.
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A team interviewing a player doesn't necessarily mean that the team is looking to draft that player. They may be asking him about certain other players the team is more interested about and this guy may have intel on those guys, or they may be doing some general variety scouting.

Hughes has, was, fifteen interviews, but 13+ of those teams aren't expecting to draft him.
 
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WreckingCrew said:
Anyone have any info / insight on Ronnie Attard? Maybe he's a late bloomer or maybe it's because he's older (20 y/o) than much of his competition, but he lit it up from the blueline this year in the USHL. 6'3" RHD got 30G / 64PTS and a +46 this year for Tri-City...after last year having only 8G / 15PTS / -9 and LOTS of penalties.
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Did a little research on this kid and he seems like a guy it would make sense to reach for. He's cleaned up his game considerably, but still plays a solid physical game. He's a above average skater, possesses a good shot (especially when on his off side). His real benefit, apparently, is that he's a super cerebral player, always a step ahead. There was also a good deal of mention of his reach and his overall stick work. Looks like a guy we could go for if he's still there in the 3rd round.
 
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Draft day. Here are the defensemen that should be available after the first 57 picks and have a PSF above 1.

Bolduc
Zach Jones (I have seen him anywhere from 40 to 110 in mock drafts)
Lundmark
Norlinder
Siedem
A. Lundqvist
Ladd
Thomas Pelletier
 
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42 jerks said:
Draft day. Here are the defensemen that should be available after the first 57 picks and have a PSF above 1.

Bolduc
Zach Jones (I have seen him anywhere from 40 to 110 in mock drafts)
Lundmark
Norlinder
Siedem
A. Lundqvist
Ladd
Thomas Pelletier
Click to expand...
*Caveats at the end.

Not quite one month into the season here is a look at the d-men the Canes could have drafted in the late rounds:

Lundqvist has 3g/7a in 11 games in SuperElit and has been moved up to the SHL.

Ladd has 1g/4a in 9 games and is +11 (tied for 3rd in the OHL) on a team that has only scored two more goals than it has allowed.

Pelletier (the Canes did invite him to camp) has 2g/7a in 9 games. He is in the top ten in D-man scoring in the QMJHL.

*It is less than a month into all these players' D+1 season.
Scoring doesn't tell everything.

Given the caveats, I am still excited that the model has at least done a good job of predicting players who significantly improve their offensive production.
 
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With the 6 days before another game, I am going to waste time looking at prospects.

Early in the season there are 5 D-men who score well on PSF, I like them in this order:

Daemon Hunt
Samuel Knazko
Theo Norlund
Ronan Seeley
Ivan Zivlak

Early prospect rankings have Hunt and Knazko in the 40-55 range, so one might be available with the later 2nd round pick (I am presuming the NYR pick becomes a 2nd around 45th overall).
Nordlund could be available in the 3rd round, Seeley and Zivlak in the 4th.
 
Spending some more time playing with the model. This year there is a bumper crop of D-men who rate up around or above 1.0 PSF. I would appreciate insights from any of you (especially our European regulars) might have on the following D prospects:

Joni Jurmo—Finland
Axel Kumlin, Theo Nordlund, Ivan Zivlak, Lucas Ramberg—Sweden
Samuel Knazko—Slovak, playing in Finland
Brock Faber—U.S.
 
If Justin Barron falls to our pick in the 1st, due to the blood clot keeping him out, do we take him? I know Dundon said we wouldn’t take a D in the 1st, but with 2 picks there does that change anything? :dunno:
 
With significantly more of the junior season complete, I can update two players the model raises above the others. There is also some scouting on both these D prospects. .

As I have mentioned in the draft thread, Joni Jurmo is getting quite a bit of attention. Steve K. at The Draft Analyst is really high on the big Finn:
Jurmo has everything you would want in a potential top-pairing defenseman. He is an effortless skater with a long, clean stride who doesn’t buckle under the first sign of pressure. When it comes to the breakout, Jurmo utilizes quick thinking and a series of deceptive moves to either peel away from a forechecker or trap him with a bank pass. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, Jurmo can be an intimidating presence as he powers through the zone at top speed. His decision making with the puck is more clean than it is creative, but he has excellent vision and will delay in the offensive zone to open up a line for either a hard shot or an on-the-tape seam pass. And good luck trying to dance around him in a one-on-one scenario — Jurmo closes on rushing forwards in a hurry and will neutralize an entry attempt with either a strong body check or well-timed stick-on-puck.

The one d-man who scores even higher in PSF is Ronan Seeley. While I am not familiar with Alex Taxman at Future Scope, he makes Seeley sound like a possible 3rd round steal:
Seeley is your prototypical puck moving defenseman. He’s a strong skater, with great mobility in transition. Seeley’s also able to keep pretty tight gaps with his skating, and it’s rare for him to get beat straight up. He’s not overly physical in his own end, but most of the time he doesn’t need to be. He would rather win a board battle with his stick than by trying to body the other guy out.

HockeyProspect.com has similar comments:
Ronan is a very good skater and can rush the puck up ice with speed consistently. He is excellent on puck retrieval making smart, quick decisions and will take the hit to make the play. Pretty explosive backwards skating too and will use it to close down opponents who are on a ten or two o’clock angle on the rush rather than turning and chasing forward.

I am pleased that the two highest scorers in the model are having their skills verified by the eye test. My hope is both hear their names called by the Canes.
 
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A D-man named Joni who is smooth on the skates, and can pass. Pitkanen 2.0?

42 jerks said:
With significantly more of the junior season complete, I can update two players the model raises above the others. There is also some scouting on both these D prospects. .

As I have mentioned in the draft thread, Joni Jurmo is getting quite a bit of attention. Steve K. at The Draft Analyst is really high on the big Finn:
Jurmo has everything you would want in a potential top-pairing defenseman. He is an effortless skater with a long, clean stride who doesn’t buckle under the first sign of pressure. When it comes to the breakout, Jurmo utilizes quick thinking and a series of deceptive moves to either peel away from a forechecker or trap him with a bank pass. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, Jurmo can be an intimidating presence as he powers through the zone at top speed. His decision making with the puck is more clean than it is creative, but he has excellent vision and will delay in the offensive zone to open up a line for either a hard shot or an on-the-tape seam pass. And good luck trying to dance around him in a one-on-one scenario — Jurmo closes on rushing forwards in a hurry and will neutralize an entry attempt with either a strong body check or well-timed stick-on-puck.
Click to expand...
 
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So I haven't updated this in six week.

Finding another D-man in the 3rd round or later who turns into a 20-minute per game, solid performer is still the goal of my model. Jurmo is starting to be listed in the early 2nd by many, so I have removed him. This is the current list:

Ronan Seeley (see above post) is on top and looks to be available in the 3rd round. If he were 6'2" or taller, I would actually compare him to Slavin at the same age. As it is, I think Seeley has a better than even chance of becoming a version of Nate Schmidt—really solid player who doesn't take penalties and has decent point production.

Brock Faber is often praised by scouts for his strong defensive positioning and IQ. He scores well in PSF and seems to be another where the eye-test and model agree.

Jack Thompson is a d-man who has shown some decent offense this season. He has decent size (6'1", 172) and is considered a strong skater.

The two d-men who could be available in the 4th (presuming the Canes retain it) are:

Jake Ratzlaff: A bigger defender (6'3", 185) who is consider raw but full of potential. The PSF model doesn't really work for players who were in high school, but it does give extra weight to performance at big tournaments like Hlinka where Ratzalff showed a little offense.

Maximilian Glotzl: After Seeley, this is my favorite middle-round D prospect. There is not a lot available other than statistics, but the one report I could find at HockeyProspect.com said this: "A pro frame, with excellent skating and strong offensive upside."
 
I've been thinking about this for a while, but I actually think that if a June Draft is held and it's done by points percentage, it may actually be a boon for the Canes' situation. Sure, the Rangers could get a lower pick in the September scenario, but who knows if we go deep in the playoffs or not. Not only that, but we will likely keep our 4th AND play Vatanen in July, as well.
 
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42 jerks said:
So I haven't updated this in six week.

Finding another D-man in the 3rd round or later who turns into a 20-minute per game, solid performer is still the goal of my model. Jurmo is starting to be listed in the early 2nd by many, so I have removed him. This is the current list:

Ronan Seeley (see above post) is on top and looks to be available in the 3rd round. If he were 6'2" or taller, I would actually compare him to Slavin at the same age. As it is, I think Seeley has a better than even chance of becoming a version of Nate Schmidt—really solid player who doesn't take penalties and has decent point production.

Brock Faber is often praised by scouts for his strong defensive positioning and IQ. He scores well in PSF and seems to be another where the eye-test and model agree.

Jack Thompson is a d-man who has shown some decent offense this season. He has decent size (6'1", 172) and is considered a strong skater.

The two d-men who could be available in the 4th (presuming the Canes retain it) are:

Jake Ratzlaff: A bigger defender (6'3", 185) who is consider raw but full of potential. The PSF model doesn't really work for players who were in high school, but it does give extra weight to performance at big tournaments like Hlinka where Ratzalff showed a little offense.

Maximilian Glotzl: After Seeley, this is my favorite middle-round D prospect. There is not a lot available other than statistics, but the one report I could find at HockeyProspect.com said this: "A pro frame, with excellent skating and strong offensive upside."
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity, how well did Pesce and Slavin themselves finish in PSF? Is it named after them because they were truly the cream of the crop? Or just because they fit the theory pretty well and are the Canes best later round steals?
 
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Anton Dubinchuk said:
Out of curiosity, how well did Pesce and Slavin themselves finish in PSF? Is it named after them because they were truly the cream of the crop? Or just because they fit the theory pretty well and are the Canes best later round steals?
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I think he has that in the OP of this thread.
 
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