Prospect Info: Can the Canes find another Pesce/Slavin

[emptyNedder]

I did miss that, but not sure if anyone has come in and passed their scores since then?

It is a model that I am still improving.

To answer your question directly, others have scored better than both Slavin and Pesce. It is not a perfect tool—as someone mentioned when I first discussed it, if the tool identified every Pesce and Slavin and only those D-men, I should be a multimillionaire.

That said, I have looked at drafts back to 2008 and what the tool does is reduce the number of picks that don't turn into NHLers. In some drafts it is up to 75% better, in others about 30%. For example, in 2012 the model suggested that only 2 of the 12 d-men available in the fourth round should be selected: Brett Kulak and Slavin. The model did miss Gustafsson. Slavin scored slightly better than Kulak.

That round is the best performance for the model. It is not perfect—PSF would have indicated not to draft Klingberg in 2010 and Parayko in the 3rd in 2012—though both Lindell and Gostisbehere were high in the model for that round. Just want to be transparent.

Also, because the model uses low PIM as a proxy for positioning/reading the play, it misses players such as Gudas and Colin Miller.

Finally (I know probably more than you cared to know), the model was not very good last draft. PSF indicated that Ryan Siedem would be a good 3rd/4th round pick. He went undrafted and was clearly outperformed this year by Henry Thrun, a player the model still indicated draft but didn't score quite as high as Siedem. So I realized I needed to somehow add skating and compete level into the model. What I am using currently are the Skating and Compete ratings at HokeyProspect.com and the Skating and Smarts scores from McKeen's. I am pretty sure those have greatly improved the model.

Again, sorry for all the points, but I am trying to create something of value.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

It is a model that I am still improving.

To answer your question directly, others have scored better than both Slavin and Pesce. It is not a perfect tool—as someone mentioned when I first discussed it, if the tool identified every Pesce and Slavin and only those D-men, I should be a multimillionaire.

That said, I have looked at drafts back to 2008 and what the tool does is reduce the number of picks that don't turn into NHLers. In some drafts it is up to 75% better, in others about 30%. For example, in 2012 the model suggested that only 2 of the 12 d-men available in the fourth round should be selected: Brett Kulak and Slavin. The model did miss Gustafsson. Slavin scored slightly better than Kulak.

That round is the best performance for the model. It is not perfect—PSF would have indicated not to draft Klingberg in 2010 and Parayko in the 3rd in 2012—though both Lindell and Gostisbehere were high in the model for that round. Just want to be transparent.

Also, because the model uses low PIM as a proxy for positioning/reading the play, it misses players such as Gudas and Colin Miller.

Finally (I know probably more than you cared to know), the model was not very good last draft. PSF indicated that Ryan Siedem would be a good 3rd/4th round pick. He went undrafted and was clearly outperformed this year by Henry Thrun, a player the model still indicated draft but didn't score quite as high as Siedem. So I realized I needed to somehow add skating and compete level into the model. What I am using currently are the Skating and Compete ratings at HokeyProspect.com and the Skating and Smarts scores from McKeen's. I am pretty sure those have greatly improved the model.

Again, sorry for all the points, but I am trying to create something of value.

All makes sense and I love seeing the updates! Just wondering who the absolutely top scores were so that we know who to expect to rise the next few years!

 

[emptyNedder]

All makes sense and I love seeing the updates! Just wondering who the absolutely top scores were so that we know who to expect to rise the next few years!

Because I completely missed the need for some scouting information (skating/compete), I am not sure my list from last season is worth much. And because I don't have that information for prior drafts I can't tell you for sure what even Pesce and Slavin's score would have been. Slavin's skating is near elite—but not sure it was considered that in 2012. Likewise I am not sure Pesce was considered as competitive his draft year as he is now (though Dave G has said he was sold on Pesce at the draft). What I will likely do is give them both scores correlated with "above-average" and then re-calculate their scores. I will use that as the upper bound for prospects.

I will post scores for the top 5 or so for this draft.

 

[spockBokk]

Jurmo, Joni?

 

[emptyNedder]

Jurmo, Joni?

In some ways, Jurmo is the model's biggest success to date. Around a month into the season I was suggesting Jurmo was special. More scouts/pundits/analysts are coming to that conclusion. I see Larry Fisher has Jurmo at 26 in the list he posted today.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The thing I always wonder about this is how many prospects could have been good NHL players but due to mis-management/coaching they never progressed as they should have?

Or is it possible that there were some truly great players that just for whatever reason didn’t get a fair shake and they rotted on some AHL team or ECHL team or Swiss league team and eventually just gave up hockey.

I guess you can’t quantify any of that and at a certain point you have to trust the process and go based off what comes to be.

I think this is a worthwhile pursuit though. If you can go back and identify what are the common traits/skillsets/pedigree of some of these lower drafted successes then it could prove to be quite beneficial.

The tough thing though is hockey isn’t played in a vacuum like baseball where you can dissect a player and their skills and if they have a + arm or bat or glove or whatever it is you can reasonably predict their success at a higher level. In hockey you could be slow with a bad shot but if your hockey IQ and positional awareness and ability to read plays is high then you can carve out a decent career.

 

[emptyNedder]

In hockey you could be slow with a bad shot but if your hockey IQ and positional awareness and ability to read plays is high then you can carve out a decent career.

The tough thing though is hockey isn’t played in a vacuum

You have summarized the challenges. That is where the proxy for hockey IQ and positional awareness comes in. Also, I may not have done a great job of describing what the model does.

It doesn't really identify every Pesce/Slavin, it identifies 3 or 4 possible Pesce/Slavin types from a group of 10 by eliminating the Calle Anderssons and Keegan Kanzigs from consideration.

I do hope with more tinkering and better inputs it can get closer to actually identifying the best possible D-men available after the first two rounds of each draft.

 

[emptyNedder]

With all the time spent walking the dog during COVID, I have thought about what other factors might improve the model. As I mentioned, factoring in skating ability and compete level has (I hope) improved the false positive problem. Obviously, the fact that both Pesce and Slavin are 6'3" has helped them succeed, so I have weighted for height/size, which is important this year as the majority of the top PSF scorers are 6'0" or shorter.

Again, the model is still a work-in-progress. But I think it is better than last season. For a baseline the current model would produce this for Pesce and Slavin in their draft years:
Pesce = 1.55
Slavin = 1.80

With that said, here are my top D prospects who should be available after pick 50.

1. Ronan Seeley started in the top 3 based on the pre-modified model. He is now clearly #1 with a PSF of 1.95.
2. Samuel Knazko has also remained near the top of the list all season. He finished with a PSF of 1.52.
3. Brock Faber scores 1.16.
4. Eamon Powell scores 1.10.
5. Viktor Persson scores 1.04 (the one player in the top five with some height at 6'2")
6. Axel Kumlin scores 1.00 HM: Mans Forsfjall and Lleyton Moore score .98.

Interesting notes: I don't (yet) know how to factor in extra height or overage production. That said both Louis Crevier who is 6'8" and Axel Rindell who is 20 could be excellent late round options.
I am not sure how to factor in some junior leagues. Maximillian Glotzl is another player who would make sense with one of the Canes 7th round picks.
Finally, two d-men who were inside the top 50 to begin the season have dropped in most lists due to injury, but the model likes both Justin Barron (who I have to believe still goes 25-40) and Daemon Hunt (who could be available in the late 2nd round).

 

[emptyNedder]

With that said, here are my top D prospects who should be available after pick 50.

1. Ronan Seeley started in the top 3 based on the pre-modified model. He is now clearly #1 with a PSF of 1.95.
2. Samuel Knazko has also remained near the top of the list all season. He finished with a PSF of 1.52.
3. Brock Faber scores 1.16.
4. Eamon Powell scores 1.10.
5. Viktor Persson scores 1.04 (the one player in the top five with some height at 6'2")
6. Axel Kumlin scores 1.00 HM: Mans Forsfjall and Lleyton Moore score .98.

With European leagues in action I am checking this list against very early progress.

Knazko has 3g/4a +9 in 11 games for TPS in Finnish U20. The +9 is tied for second on the team.

Persson has 3g/1a +5 in 9 games for Brynas in Swedish U20. The + 5 is tied for second on the team.

Kumlin is the standout so far with 7g/1a + 11 in 12 games for Frolunda in Swedish U20. The 7g leads the team, which includes Niederbach, Torgersson, and top 2022 prospect Ludwig Persson. The +11 is second to Niederbach.

 

[MinJaBen]

With European leagues in action I am checking this list against very early progress.

Knazko has 3g/4a +9 in 11 games for TPS in Finnish U20. The +9 is tied for second on the team.

Persson has 3g/1a +5 in 9 games for Brynas in Swedish U20. The + 5 is tied for second on the team.

Kumlin is the standout so far with 7g/1a + 11 in 12 games for Frolunda in Swedish U20. The 7g leads the team, which includes Niederbach, Torgersson, and top 2022 prospect Ludwig Persson. The +11 is second to Niederbach.

Any go undrafted?

 

[emptyNedder]

Any go undrafted?

Kumlin didn't get drafted. Knazko went in the 3rd, Persson in the 7th.

Faber went in the 2nd, Powell in the 4th, Forsfjall and Moore went undrafted as well.

 

[2Minutes4Surging]

What were the chances we take Seeley in the 7th at 208 OA? This seems like a huge coincidence..

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

What were the chances we take Seeley in the 7th at 208 OA? This seems like a huge coincidence..

Yeah, that is kind of crazy. Regardless if he pans out that's a pretty amazing dart to have thrown and have it hit the board.

If it does work out then I think we all know who the next director of scouting or assistant GM should be...

 

[emptyNedder]

Early look at 2021 D class. Obviously missing a few since OHL and WHL haven't played.

Right now PSF likes three smaller D men.

Oscar Plandowski—who is showing up on longer lists around 75. Apparently a near elite skater.
Jacob Guevin
Jack Peart

Using data from last season as well as this, Peart is the early favorite for PSF darling in the 2021 draft.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Ok, but what about Jacob Blavin, or Jacob Veayvin?

 

[AD Skinner]

Jack Peart

Using data from last season as well as this, Peart is the early favorite for PSF darling in the 2021 draft.

Any relation to Neil I wonder?

 

[ONO94]

Any relation to Neil I wonder?

The next Alexander Semin maybe?

 

[emptyNedder]

Using data from last season as well as this, Peart is the early favorite for PSF darling in the 2021 draft.

Hadn't seen Peart in most early top 100 lists. Then he shows up in a few around 65. Now Wheeler has him in the top 50.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Time to start applying for front office jobs?

 

[emptyNedder]

Listened to an episode of "Hidden Brain" while running errands this morning—for some it reason it made me want to update the 2021 list.

Peart—still tops the list, but he went back to play HS hockey and that data just isn't applicable.

Plandowski—his PSF is hovering around 1.00, but the comments from scouts and knowledgable fans about his electric skating means he will also stay high on the list.

Guevin—actually has the best PSF score and his skating is called above-average, but his defensive commitment/strength has received mixed reviews. So I need to determine a way to add that type of feedback to the model.

Tyson Hinds—in looking at eligible D-men, Hinds combination of PSF and scouting comments kept improving. He was traded in the Q and has found previously unknown offense (6g/9a in 23 games). He is the tallest (6'3", 179) of the group that is currently hovering around 1.00.

Owen Murray—is on the opposite of the height spectrum (5'10") but is solidly built (181 lbs) and again gets praised as an above-average skater. His raw PSF is second highest.

Vladislav Lukashevich—is the foreign defenseman who is scoring highest right now.

Edit: Forgot
Guillaume Richard—another defensive with an ideal combination of height (6'2") and high-end skating. He has been one of the better producing defensemen on tournament teams (WHC-17 and CWG).

An interesting development is that Seeley's teammate Olen Zellweger is looking really good in the model 6 games into an abbreviated season. I will need to find some more information before deciding if he gets listed.

My original idea several years ago was to identify D-men outside the first two rounds—more accurately the top 50. With all the chaos this year, I think it is likely several of these players are ranked in the top 64 by draft day.

 

[emptyNedder]

My original idea several years ago was to identify D-men outside the first two rounds—more accurately the top 50. With all the chaos this year, I think it is likely several of these players are ranked in the top 64 by draft day.

The model did a great job in identifying Peart when he was not in anyone's preseason top 100 list. However, he appears to be this season's Brock Faber, so he will likely be drafted in the top 50. In fact, I could see him going as high as 35 or so. He has really been a standout in the USHL playoffs (based on game reports) with 6 points in 6 games. Last night he was instrumental in Fargo shutting out the Chicago Steel--the first time in 121 USHL games that Chicago didn't score. The Steel has the USHL's version of McDavid/Draisaitl in Farrell/Coronato. Peart also scored a goal in the first game of the USHL finals. Unless the Canes decide to bend their rule of not picking D in round 1, I don't see the Canes landing Peart.

With the down time this past week, I have been watching some shift-by-shift videos. The one D-man who PSF identifies that I came away most impressed with was Guillaume Richard. In watching Richard, I kept thinking about Tripp stating that a goalie is doing well because his game is "quiet." Richard never seemed hurried; he made numerous quick plays but it looked like he had envisioned them beforehand. His defensive positioning was excellent. While he didn't get much past the blue line in the offensive zone, the 3 times he went lower created dangerous chances. Richard would be ideal with the Canes' 3rd round pick.

There is one new entry based on PSF: Kalle Ervasti. I haven't been able to find any video, but did find some tracking data--really good information on Finnish prospects from Lassi Alanen--that shows that Ervasti led all players in the Finnish U20 league in breakups. Ervasti isn't showing up in many lists so he could be another 7th round gem.

 

[emptyNedder]

There is one new entry based on PSF: Kalle Ervasti. I haven't been able to find any video, but did find some tracking data--really good information on Finnish prospects from Lassi Alanen--that shows that Ervasti led all players in the Finnish U20 league in breakups. Ervasti isn't showing up in many lists so he could be another 7th round gem.

Scott Wheeler just released his top 100.

His is the first well-known list to have Ervasti.

Wheeler also had Peart the highest I have seen him so far. I would actually be fine with the Canes taking Peart at 26.

Wheeler likes Zellweger, having him in the top 50. The analysis of Richard is really close to what I saw in viewing shift-by-shift video.

If I pretend that the organization would listen, I would suggest:

1st: Peart
4th: Richard if available
6th or 7th: Ervasti

Of the forwards on Wheeler's list, Arcuri would be a terrific pick up if he makes it until the end of the 6th.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Scott Wheeler just released his top 100.

His is the first well-known list to have Ervasti.

Wheeler also had Peart the highest I have seen him so far. I would actually be fine with the Canes taking Peart at 26.

Wheeler likes Zellweger, having him in the top 50. The analysis of Richard is really close to what I saw in viewing shift-by-shift video.

If I pretend that the organization would listen, I would suggest:

1st: Peart
4th: Richard if available
6th or 7th: Ervasti

Of the forwards on Wheeler's list, Arcuri would be a terrific pick up if he makes it until the end of the 6th.

I liked this post, not because I agree with it, nor do I disagree with it. It's because I have zero knowledge of the prospects so I appreciate when posters provide input.

 

[emptyNedder]

I liked this post, not because I agree with it, nor do I disagree with it. It's because I have zero knowledge of the prospects so I appreciate when posters provide input.

I liked this post because most of us have zero knowledge and still vehemently disagree or fulsomely support almost every opinion.

 

[MinJaBen]

I liked this post, not because I agree with it, nor do I disagree with it. It's because I have zero knowledge of the prospects so I appreciate when posters provide input.

I liked this post because most of us have zero knowledge and still vehemently disagree or fulsomely support almost every opinion.

I liked these posts because there was a like button and they were talking about likes.