Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[Midnight Judges]

McDavid hasn't surpassed Jagr or Richard or Beliveau or the two goalies yet, let alone Bourque and Harvey.

Marginal top 10? (with POTENTIAL upside)

... sounds about right...

A career takes -well- a career to make!

No it doesn't - at least not according to many (I don't personally concur). Bobby Orr played less than half a career. Mario Lemieux played only 54% as many games as Gordie howe.

For many people, these massive deficiencies amount to basically nothing.

So to those people, McDavid must already be a top 5 ish player. At least, if they were consistent that would be the base.

 

[daver]

McDavid hasn't surpassed Jagr or Richard or Beliveau or the two goalies yet, let alone Bourque and Harvey.

Marginal top 10? (with POTENTIAL upside)

... sounds about right...

A career takes -well- a career to make!

The guy ain't 28 yet (so marginal top 10 all time should be a COMPLIMENT!). He could Orr it out of the league with injuries or hammer it like Howe, Gretzky.

We're here for it!

If Crosby, who has as much a claim for #5 as anyone, wasn't Top 10 after his 3rd Cup in 2017 then just outside of the Top 10 for McDavid at this point seems about right.

 

[jigglysquishy]

If Crosby, who has as much a claim for #5 as anyone, wasn't Top 10 after his 3rd Cup in 2017 then just outside of the Top 10 for McDavid at this point seems about right.

I don't think a lot separates Crosby and McDavid now, but I would certainly have post 2024 McDavid over post 2017 Crosby.

He had the better single season. Better single playoffs. And arguably second best single season and second best single playoffs.

I get the PPG argument, but McDavid showing up and doing it day in day out is just plain worth way more than coulda shoulda woulda.

McDavid just finished his 9th year. We've seen enough where including him top 10 should hardly be controversial.

 

[daver]

I don't think a lot separates Crosby and McDavid now, but I would certainly have post 2024 McDavid over post 2017 Crosby.

He had the better single season. Better single playoffs. And arguably second best single season and second best single playoffs.

I get the PPG argument, but McDavid showing up and doing it day in day out is just plain worth way more than coulda shoulda woulda.

McDavid just finished his 9th year. We've seen enough where including him top 10 should hardly be controversial.

Crosby doesn't need a PPG argument to be rated at #5 and/or above McDavid. A PPG argument would make him the undisputed #5 at this point.

Crosby's 2009 run through 3 rounds is as good as McDavid's 2022 run and better than McDavid's 2024 through 3 rounds. His 2008 SCF was as good as McDavid's SCF. His 2009 series against the Cap is arguably the best run between the two.

At this point, part of the argument for McDavid is "if he had a better supporting cast, he WOULD have won a Cup by now".

Crosby, and Malkin, won their first Cup with an arguably worse supporting roster than the 2022 or 2023 Oilers.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Crosby's 2009 run through 3 rounds is as good as McDavid's 2022 run and better than McDavid's 2024 through 3 rounds. His 2008 SCF was as good as McDavid's SCF. His 2009 series against the Cap is arguably the best run between the two.

At this point, part of the argument for McDavid is "if he had a better supporting cast, he WOULD have won a Cup by now".

Crosby, and Malkin, won their first Cup with an arguably worse supporting roster than the 2022 or 2023 Oilers.

I don't think this is necessarily true.

Through 3 rounds 2009

NHL Stats

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www.nhl.com

Crosby and Malkin each had 28 points through 3 rounds, out of 65 Penguins goals (43.1%)

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

McDavid had 31 points and Draisaitl 28 points through 3 rounds, out of 63 Oilers goals (49.2% and 44.4%)

McDavid then followed it up with 11 points in 7 games in the final while Crosby had 3 points in 7 games.

Most importantly, Malkin had 8 points in 7 games while Draisailt only had 3 points in 7 games.

The supporting casts are a wash (I might even lean Edmonton), but it's clear that Malkin 2009 SCF was just plain a different level than Draisailt 2024 SCF. Even if we blame it all on injuries.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

I wouldn't take Crosby's 6 points in 6 games (Hossa had 7 in 6) over McDavid's 11 in 7 (Bouchard and Foegele each had 5 in 7).

I just don't think Crosby ever had a complete playoff run on the level of McDavid 2024.

Full props to Crosby's 2009 vs. Caps. It was a tremendous series.

 

[Sentinel]

I get what @JackSlater is saying. Jágr is typically under-rated for his playoff performance, and I think too many people lazily look at point totals in his prime, forgetting that (a) it was the DPE and (b) he was on a bit of an island in Pittsburgh after 1997 (and even the 1997 team, with Mario, wasn't great).

If you look at Jágr's points in the first three playoffs after Mario retired (which is sort of Jagr's peak), he put up 37 points in 26 games, which is a pace of 117 points over 82 games. (The club was 14-16 over these three playoffs.) Those are exceptionally good numbers for the DPE.

Jágr's enormous contribution to the 1992 Cup is often overlooked, I find, or it's dismissed as "he was on a stacked team". Yeah, he was on a stacked team, but he scored 11 goals and 24 points. Even more impressively, he was easily #1 in the entire playoff in ES points, with 19. (Mario Lemieux had 14.) He was still second-unit PP, was age-eligible for junior hockey, and yet led the entire NHL playoffs in ES scoring. That's staggering.

So, yeah, imagine if the 1998, 1999, and 2000 Penguins had had a second-line like the Avs and Red Wings had (or the '92 Pens), and then checkers couldn't have entirely focused on Jágr. Instead of a 117 point pace, he might have scored at a 140-point pace...

Players on one-line teams always suffer in production in the playoffs.

IIRC in the late 90s Penguins second line was Straka-Lang-Kovalev, which is as good of a second line as you can hope for. And then it was Morozov, who was no slouch either.

 

[Sentinel]

FWIW both Crosby and McDavid have handily surpassed Maurice Richard IMO.

 

[JackSlater]

No it doesn't - at least not according to many (I don't personally concur). Bobby Orr played less than half a career. Mario Lemieux played only 54% as many games as Gordie howe.

For many people, these massive deficiencies amount to basically nothing.

So to those people, McDavid must already be a top 5 ish player. At least, if they were consistent that would be the base.

McDavid should be in that discussion already. He's unlikely to get any better as a player at this point (it could happen I suppose) so we should probably be able to assess how good he is. If he hangs around and adds some elite seasons that's good for career value but doesn't make him a better player.

So I agree with your opinion that you disagree with. You at least admit that you are basically ranking careers, some won't.

 

[67 others]

all while I see McDavid be called a “PP merchant.”

How dare he only have 81 and 88 ES points in the last 2 seasons

 

[Midnight Judges]

McDavid should be in that discussion already. He's unlikely to get any better as a player at this point (it could happen I suppose) so we should probably be able to assess how good he is. If he hangs around and adds some elite seasons that's good for career value but doesn't make him a better player.

So I agree with your opinion that you disagree with. You at least admit that you are basically ranking careers, some won't.

That’s the thing though -career value is what actually matters.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Crosby doesn't need a PPG argument to be rated at #5 and/or above McDavid. A PPG argument would make him the undisputed #5 at this point.

Crosby's 2009 run through 3 rounds is as good as McDavid's 2022 run and better than McDavid's 2024 through 3 rounds. His 2008 SCF was as good as McDavid's SCF. His 2009 series against the Cap is arguably the best run between the two.

At this point, part of the argument for McDavid is "if he had a better supporting cast, he WOULD have won a Cup by now".

Crosby, and Malkin, won their first Cup with an arguably worse supporting roster than the 2022 or 2023 Oilers.

Crosby: 17-14-14-28
McDavid: 16-10-23-33

Crosby: 17-14-14-28
McDavid: 18-5-26-31

Crosby: 6-2-4-6
McDavid: 7-3-8-11

A lot of reaching going on here.

Considering that the Pens won with Crosby not even leading his own team in points while only having 3 points in the finals, ya I’d say supporting cast is a big factor here.

 

[JackSlater]

That’s the thing though -career value is what actually matters.

Eh not really. More importantly in this context it's a very boring discussion, hence why so much general discussion in sports is around who/what is best. At least you are open with what you are discussing though, I don't understand people comparing players (as opposed to careers) and saying that a player needs to wait a few years and basically just accumulate some points before they reach X level.

At this point if someone doesn't think McDavid is in contention for top five then they probably shouldn't have him in that discussion in 15 years. The Orr analogy works.

 

[MadLuke]

At this point if someone doesn't think McDavid is in contention for top five then they probably shouldn't have him in that discussion in 15 years. The Orr analogy works.

I feel like McDavid > Turgeon was clear way before (say McDavid first complete season) any notion of McDavid had a better career than him was clear. And those 2 are a bit 2 different conversation.

What the soviet player career value vs Lafleur look like, can become quickly a bit strange vs who was better at hockey than the other.

Greatness, career value, who was better at hockey, will be strongly correlated, sometime hard to distinguish, but the 3 can have a different answer.

McDavid scoring that game 7 goal instead of having is stick pickup by a great D play and win it all, that add a lot to his greatness, has nothing to do with being better or not at hockey.

A good goaltender being stuck as a number 2 being a great one, can hurt a lot of his career value, has nothing to do with how good he was at hockey. Lock-out year during your peak... and so on. Loosing an Art Ross or Hart to Gretzky.... someone can say it hurt your greatness, but that zero to do with your career value or how good you were at hockey. Stuck on a bad team all your career vs a good one, list goes on.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I think the answer is ultimately in the middle. There's a reason we talk about peak, prime, and career.

The baseline is how good they were at their best. But longevity is still very important. Lemieux was a bit better than Howe at his best, but that Howe did it for twice as long is still very relevant.

Conversely, Orr at his best was so much stronger than Bourque at his best that no one will rank Bourque ahead.

It's not an exact science, but that's part of the fun. We use the word top instead of best or greatest for that reason.

 

[JackSlater]

I feel like McDavid > Turgeon was clear way before (say McDavid first complete season) any notion of McDavid had a better career than him was clear. And those 2 are a bit 2 different conversation.

What the soviet player career value vs Lafleur look like, can become quickly a bit strange vs who was better at hockey than the other.

Greatness, career value, who was better at hockey, will be strongly correlated, sometime hard to distinguish, but the 3 can have a different answer.

McDavid scoring that game 7 goal instead of having is stick pickup by a great D play and win it all, that add a lot to his greatness, has nothing to do with being better or not at hockey.

A good goaltender being stuck as a number 2 being a great one, can hurt a lot of his career value, has nothing to do with how good he was at hockey. Lock-out year during your peak... and so on. Loosing an Art Ross or Hart to Gretzky.... someone can say it hurt your greatness, but that zero to do with your career value or how good you were at hockey. Stuck on a bad team all your career vs a good one, list goes on.

I understand all this, and I like the casual Turgeon reference. Turgeon very likely has more career value than McDavid does, at least if we keep it exclusively to the regular season... but I don't see why anyone would care. McDavid passed Turgeon long ago.

I also like the references to a lockout or competition. It seems crazy to me that Brad Park is greater if Orr never existed or that Red Kelly is greater if they made the Norris a few years earlier or that the best players circa 2005 would be greater if only the owners and union could get along better. It's not much different to me than suggesting that McDavid is greater if Skinner has a shutout in game 7 of the 2024 finals.

 

[daver]

I don't think this is necessarily true.

Through 3 rounds 2009

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Crosby and Malkin each had 28 points through 3 rounds, out of 65 Penguins goals (43.1%)

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

McDavid had 31 points and Draisaitl 28 points through 3 rounds, out of 63 Oilers goals (49.2% and 44.4%)

Crosby's PPG - 1.65, plus 12, 14 goals, leading goalscorer, 1 teammate within 100% of his point total

McDavid's PPG - 1.72 plus 7, 5 goals, 5th in goals, 5 linemates and/or teammates within 100% of his point total

Looks clear to me.

 

[daver]

I wouldn't take Crosby's 6 points in 6 games (Hossa had 7 in 6) over McDavid's 11 in 7 (Bouchard and Foegele each had 5 in 7).

I just don't think Crosby ever had a complete playoff run on the level of McDavid 2024.

Full props to Crosby's 2009 vs. Caps. It was a tremendous series.

If you want to keep on breaking things down, you should take Crosby over McDavid in the first 3 games of their respective SCFs.

Crosby's line was the most effective in the first two games and he scores twice and early in Game 3. McDavid was effective in Game 1, was ineffective in Game 2, and didn't produce until it was too late in Game 3. After Game 3, Florida has effectively won the Cup. If you want to give McDavid some credit for joining the rest of team for a not unexpected Game 4 win and give him full credit for winning Game 5, fine. But then you have to critique him for not producing in Game 6 and Game 7.

As I said, noone is critiquing the Pens for getting to the SCF two years after being one the worst teams of the post lockout era and losing to the clear best post lockout Cup winner. McDavid and the Oilers have to be left wondering a bit what might have been if they had gotten off to a stronger start.

Hossa played great in 2008 but was not on Draisaitl's level as a player. This is not as relevant for McDavid's 2024 run but is for 2022.

All that being said, I have no issue with McDavid be rated ahead thru 9 seasons primarily due to McDavid being more fortunate with injuries.

 

[Video Nasty]

Crosby's PPG - 1.65, plus 12, 14 goals, leading goalscorer, 1 teammate within 100% of his point total

McDavid's PPG - 1.72 plus 7, 5 goals, 5th in goals, 5 linemates and/or teammates within 100% of his point total

Looks clear to me.

Oilers faced tougher opponents. Two seeds were higher. Their Western Conference foes ranked 3rd, 5th, and 8th in GA out of 32 teams. Penguins foes, who were all below them in the standings, were 8th, 16th, and 20th out of 30 teams.

 

[VanIslander]

Eddie Shore had 4 Hart trophies.
McDavid has yet to.

There are clearly 6 to 8 players more accomplished.

Is McDavid really better than Patrick Roy?

... he is top-10 material.... maybe, not in my books, but whatever... he at his age is ascending. Let's just not be quick to kick the past under the bus.

And Red Kelly was awesome as D & C.

History should remember Red Kelly before McDavid. AT THIS POINT IN TIME. The future is open... (why don't youth recognize this? .. they're too quick to project. Optimism. K. But the best laid plans often...)

LITMUS TEST: If McDavid had a career-ending injury tomorrow, how would he be remembered 50 years on?

 

[MadLuke]

(why don't youth recognize this? .. they're too quick to project. Optimism.

I think as we age, time past incredibly faster, remember how long high school felt to be versus covid to now just felt ?

McDavid 720 nhl games, that more than Orr pre-chicago, about Lafleur whole relevant career, more than Forsberg has an Avs-Nordique.

It is about what Lemieux had played after his 1996 season comeback, after Lemieux first retirement did it felt he did not had a body of work to judge him ?

9 years is not that quick for a young mind and they are not necessarily wrong, it is for us that it goes ways too fast. Judging Lindros, Bure, Jagr, Forsberg, Kariya by 2002 did not felt specially quick to me back in the days. Judging McDavid after about the same time now, do.... because time went so much quicker.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Ya McDavid isn't 22 anymore. We've seen enough. He's at what, 6 or 7 years now as the consensus best player in the world? How many guys have even achieved that?

He's led the league in scoring 5 times and playoffs twice. That is the kind of thing that will be remembered 100 years from now. We're not talking about a young unproven McDavid.

At worst, he's fourth best forward born 1966-2005. He will overtake Gretzky for games played as an Oiler this season.

 

[MadLuke]

He will overtake Gretzky for games played as an Oiler this season.

That quite the way to put, both have 9 seasons as an Oiler, if McDavid > Gretzky, should have been able to show it by now.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

Some other random stats for McDavid:

6th fastest player to 700 points
5th fastest player to 800 points
5th fastest player to 900 points

He could also be 5th fastest to 1,000 points this upcoming season. Aside from his first season, we have seen a fairly healthy McDavid so far. I would have zero problem placing him 5th given his dominant play, widely regarded as one of the greatest skaters and fastest of all time, highlight reel goals and plays (yes this counts), his 5 scoring titles, 153 point season, and this past playoff run + a Conn Smythe. Not many players have these sort of achievements or accolades.

To be totally truthful I'd be lying that I would have hoped that Crosby would be the "next one." Sadly his health got the better of him (not as bad as Lindros), and we were robbed of seeing him reach his full potential. He still had a fantastic career and is still a great player (ironically he is having great longevity). I also think we wanted a megastar so badly post Wayne and Mario (to lesser extent Jagr) that there was unfair pressure on Crosby to be "that guy." McDavid on the other hand is mostly "as advertised," and let's hope we see more of his brilliance in the next few years.

 

[DitchMarner]

LITMUS TEST: If McDavid had a career-ending injury tomorrow, how would he be remembered 50 years on?

He's already won as many scoring Titles as Jagr and Esposito and more than Mikita, Messier, Crosby. He's led the playoffs in points twice. He would be considered one of the best and most accomplished to ever play. If anything, people would be asking how much more he could have done like some do with Orr and Mario now.

 

[Sentinel]

He's already won as many scoring Titles as Jagr and Esposito and more than Mikita, Messier, Crosby. He's led the playoffs in points twice. He would be considered one of the best and most accomplished to ever play. If anything, people would be asking how much more he could have done like some do with Orr and Mario now.

The only question they would be asking is "Why doesn't he have a Cup? Orr and Lemieux did!"