Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[The Macho King]

I think he's quite possibly going to end up being that guy.

BUT, he very badly needs to win at least one Stanley Cup or we're going to have a rich-man's-Dionne argument on our hands forever. Especially in the media where narratives get simplified.

I tank Dionne because Dionne has poor playoff performances, not results.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I tank Dionne because Dionne has poor playoff performances, not results.

Dionne also just wasn't as good as McDavid. But he will be the name people bring up, same as it was with Thornton.

 

[ViD]

I think it’s more likely the big 4 will become the big 5

 

[JackSlater]

I think he's quite possibly going to end up being that guy.

BUT, he very badly needs to win at least one Stanley Cup or we're going to have a rich-man's-Dionne argument on our hands forever. Especially in the media where narratives get simplified.

It's true and I'd honestly rather him win a Stanley Cup just to get rid of that story down the road. I couldn't care less about Washington or even Ovechkin but I was glad when Washington won the 2018 Stanley Cup just so that the mindless talk of Ovechkin not being able to win a Stanley Cup would be gone. At some point one of the best players ever is going to retire without a Stanley Cup and it's going to be so tedious to hear the arguments that will ensue.

 

[McPoyle]

I think he has a chance to reshape the big four into the big 5.

 

[BraveCanadian]

It's possible.. but I doubt it. He might become the clear number 5 over the current logjam of players who all have a case.

 

[FinProspects]

After 2008 I thought Ovechkin was a lock for 60 goals many more times. Never hit it again. In 2010, I thought he hit a new level and would repeatedly win Art Rosses. Never again.

In 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 I thought Crosby would hit a run like Jagr 1996-2001. Never happened.

I thought Stamkos would hit 60 again. Never happened.

Who here predicted Jagr to have his 2002-2004 run? Or Lemieux to retire in 1997?

How many people thought Matthews wouldn't hit 40 this year?

I hope he pulls it off, but injuries happen. Kucherov happened. We saw last year he was at risk of losing to Huberdeau until game 75.

He's clearly peaking below Gretzky/Orr/Lemieux. But he's contending Howe for 4th greatest peak ever.

What he does from here on out is a complete guessing game.

What an interesting post.

To me, its absolutely not a guessing game McDavid's resume is second to none already - we dont have to guess. He is 1st and foremost favorite to win Art/Hart every single year until someone clearly surpasses him. It might take 4-5 years.

As I've written many times - Connor generates offense with such ease, its almost non comparable (outside of big4). He doesnt sacrifice his body to the extent that Crosby did. His playing style isnt as reckless as peak Ovie. He is also more skilled than anyone since Mario.

If Connor stays healthy, we can give him at least 2-3 more Art Rosses - maybe Bedard can challenge him at some point. I'd say Connor will be closer to 10 Art's than 5, when its all said and done.

And to the topic - if its someone who can break big 4, its him. I have him as projected #5 already.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

It's possible.. but I doubt it. He might become the clear number 5 over the current logjam of players who all have a case.

There may be a current logjam of players with a case, but McDavid isn't part of it. He's above it.

 

[jigglysquishy]

There may be a current logjam of players with a case, but McDavid isn't part of it. He's above it.

I mean today yes he's a part of it, in fact below in. He hasn't separated himself offensively to a level different than Jagr or Hull (at least, until this year). He doesn't have the insane prime length and playoffs of a Beliveau or Crosby.

He's not going to retire this year. But if he did he would not have a good argument for 5.

We ran into the same issue 10 years ago with Crosby. People (myself included) were eager to throw him at the 5 spot before he earned it. And maybe he's there now, but he sure as hell wasn't there in 2014.

He's not a case like Orr 1970 or Gretzky 1982 where the peak was so outrageously high that it could be justified. This is really the first full year where we can argue he's clearly peaking above a Jagr or Hull.

We explicitly do not allow projecting in the rankings projects. And without a projection, no, McDavid is not at the 5 spot.

But we can also recognize he almost certainly will. Things like >6 Art Rosses, Vsx7>120, 2000+ points, the 4th Hart. These were looked at as near impossible in 2015, and are becoming increasingly likely. Hell, 2 of those 4 could happen in 14 months.

Or we could get Crosby 2015, Jagr 2002, Ovechkin 2011. I just don't see the point in proclaiming it before it happens.

 

[jcbio11]

It's true and I'd honestly rather him win a Stanley Cup just to get rid of that story down the road. I couldn't care less about Washington or even Ovechkin but I was glad when Washington won the 2018 Stanley Cup just so that the mindless talk of Ovechkin not being able to win a Stanley Cup would be gone. At some point one of the best players ever is going to retire without a Stanley Cup and it's going to be so tedious to hear the arguments that will ensue.

Yup. In a league with 32 teams no less. Plus salary cap, draft and all the other tools to even out the competition.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I mean today yes he's a part of it, in fact below in. He hasn't separated himself offensively to a level different than Jagr or Hull (at least, until this year). He doesn't have the insane prime length and playoffs of a Beliveau or Crosby.

He's not going to retire this year. But if he did he would not have a good argument for 5.

We ran into the same issue 10 years ago with Crosby. People (myself included) were eager to throw him at the 5 spot before he earned it. And maybe he's there now, but he sure as hell wasn't there in 2014.

He's not a case like Orr 1970 or Gretzky 1982 where the peak was so outrageously high that it could be justified. This is really the first full year where we can argue he's clearly peaking above a Jagr or Hull.

We explicitly do not allow projecting in the rankings projects. And without a projection, no, McDavid is not at the 5 spot.

But we can also recognize he almost certainly will. Things like >6 Art Rosses, Vsx7>120, 2000+ points, the 4th Hart. These were looked at as near impossible in 2015, and are becoming increasingly likely. Hell, 2 of those 4 could happen in 14 months.

Or we could get Crosby 2015, Jagr 2002, Ovechkin 2011. I just don't see the point in proclaiming it before it happens.

Agreed, he gets a career ending injury today he won't be ranked 5th all-time by many.

I'll just say, in my opinion, none of the players mentioned ever looked to be on the Big 4 level as players. But McDavid does.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Agreed, he gets a career ending injury today he won't be ranked 5th all-time by many.

I'll just say, in my opinion, none of the players mentioned ever looked to be on the Big 4 level as players. But McDavid does.

I mean, people were absolutely arguing Crosby was at game like 40 in 2010-11. Or in 2014, when he lead the league in PPG for the 4th time in a row. Even into 2017 when he repeated the Smythe and finished 2nd in points/Hart. Winning Art Ross/Hart at age 19 is crazy.

Where were people sitting in 2000 or 2001 with Jagr? As a kid I thought he was just going to keep winning forever. I had never seen anyone besides Lemieux or Jagr win an Art Ross.

2021 McDavid is such a exceptional circumstance that it will always be an asterisk. But this year is really the first year where I think he's created that insane separation above the Jagr/Crosby/Beliveau/Hull/Richard level of forwards. He is currently posting the largest margin of point lead (%) by anyone outside Gretzky/Howe/Morenz. Cleanly leading in assists/goals was done by Morenz x1, Gretzky x4, Howe x1. That's it. And McDavid is likely to join them. It's a level of peak dominance that will skyrocket him up any list.

12 months ago, when he was leading in points by 3, it certainly did not feel like a Big Four level resume. Does he repeat this performance in playoffs 2023 and 2023-24 season? Then yes, I think he joins that group. Or does he 2018-19/2021-22 where he is part of the "pack"?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I mean, people were absolutely arguing Crosby was at game like 40 in 2010-11. Or in 2014, when he lead the league in PPG for the 4th time in a row. Even into 2017 when he repeated the Smythe and finished 2nd in points/Hart. Winning Art Ross/Hart at age 19 is crazy.

Where were people sitting in 2000 or 2001 with Jagr? As a kid I thought he was just going to keep winning forever. I had never seen anyone besides Lemieux or Jagr win an Art Ross.

2021 McDavid is such a exceptional circumstance that it will always be an asterisk. But this year is really the first year where I think he's created that insane separation above the Jagr/Crosby/Beliveau/Hull/Richard level of forwards. He is currently posting the largest margin of point lead (%) by anyone outside Gretzky/Howe/Morenz. Cleanly leading in assists/goals was done by Morenz x1, Gretzky x4, Howe x1. That's it. And McDavid is likely to join them. It's a level of peak dominance that will skyrocket him up any list.

12 months ago, when he was leading in points by 3, it certainly did not feel like a Big Four level resume. Does he repeat this performance in playoffs 2023 and 2023-24 season? Then yes, I think he joins that group. Or does he 2018-19/2021-22 where he is part of the "pack"?

I'm not really basing my opinion on resume.

Simply saying he is the only player I've seen that looks (eye test) to be on a level with the Big 4.

 

[BraveCanadian]

There may be a current logjam of players with a case, but McDavid isn't part of it. He's above it.

I don't think he is there yet. If he can keep up what he is doing for a few more seasons than I'd agree.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I don't think he is there yet. If he can keep up what he is doing for a few more seasons than I'd agree.

If McDavid wins the scoring title and Hart Trophy (both very likely):

Only Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux would have more Ross trophies.

Only Gretzky, Howe and Shore would have more Hart trophies.

And he's only 26 years old.

 

[JackSlater]

I'm not really basing my opinion on resume.

Simply saying he is the only player I've seen that looks (eye test) to be on a level with the Big 4.

You're a mad man. Check out his hockey reference page instead, or at least wikipedia.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, I think mainly because give it another ~15 years and I doubt you'll have a new generation of fans as keen to the idea that all of the best players in the game's history are ones whose primes were about 50 years ago.

It's just natural, more and more people that saw, say, Gordie Howe or Bobby Orr play will no longer be part of the earth, people will still acknowledge that they were the best in the era that they played in, but with trophy cases that look similar to theirs, McDavid will be given the edge for having done it in a more modern era.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It's true and I'd honestly rather him win a Stanley Cup just to get rid of that story down the road. I couldn't care less about Washington or even Ovechkin but I was glad when Washington won the 2018 Stanley Cup just so that the mindless talk of Ovechkin not being able to win a Stanley Cup would be gone. At some point one of the best players ever is going to retire without a Stanley Cup and it's going to be so tedious to hear the arguments that will ensue.

Oh it's very inevitable. You can even just compare the list of "non-Cup winners" that have retired recently versus in an all time historical sense.

Hockey is a sport, whether due to having 6 teams for a long time, and then like 12 where a lot of those teams were jokes, where pretty much every historical great got their Cups. Historically, the "best without a Cup" list was like Marcel Dionne and then....... Brad Park? Before Dionne and Park came into the League (both baby boomers born a few years apart), I have no idea who it even would have been.

You also had the no salary cap era of the 1990s, where the best players would generally find their way onto the stacked superteams at some point or another to get one, even if it wasn't the team they started with. Obviously Ray Bourque came ridiculously close to not getting one, but he was able to get one right at the end when he joined a stacked Avalanche team.

Now is the era of hyper-parity with the very hard salary cap and continued expansion has pushed the League up to 32 teams (even in say Gretzky's era, it was around 21) making it that much more statistically difficult for a given team, and thus any player on a given team, to win a Cup.

Just look at the recent retirees, team "never won the Cup" is getting stronger and stronger. Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton, Daniel Alfredsson, Patrick Marleau, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price. It's just not a guy here or there, a lot of great players are not getting Cups just due to how things have changed.

It's pretty inevitable a consensus top 20 all time player will go Cup-less pretty soon, hockey is too much of a depth-driven sport to assume a great player is inevitably going to get a Cup now.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone think that Connor's output this year may have something to due with Bedard's performance, especially following Christmas?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone think that Connor's output this year may have something to due with Bedard's performance, especially following Christmas?

Huh? Why would a player in Juniors have an effect on what McDavid does?

 

[Hockeyholic]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone think that Connor's output this year may have something to due with Bedard's performance, especially following Christmas?

No.....

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

Huh? Why would a player in Juniors have an effect on what McDavid does?

Just an idea, but what if CB comes in next year and drops 40-50? The thing is, with all due respect, CB is not some player in juniors. He's in the same extremely rarified pre-NHL class that McDavid was. For that, the two already command comparison to each other. Unless CB is a bust, I expect this will intensify. So maybe McDavid feels that coming, and that has some sort of affect his goal scoring production.

No.....

I like your directness.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Just an idea, but what if CB comes in next year and drops 40-50? The thing is, with all due respect, CB is not some player in juniors. He's in the same extremely rarified pre-NHL class that McDavid was. For that, the two already command comparison to each other. Unless CB is a bust, I expect this will intensify. So maybe McDavid feels that coming, and that has some sort of affect his goal scoring production.


I like your directness.

I just do not think Bedard is a concern for McDavid.

He's in junior and McDavid has the pressure of winning a cup. McDavid also had huge years before Bedard became a household name.

McDavid is probably aware of who Bedard is though. And vice versa. The first time they face off will be a glorious game.

As for the thread, McDavid has to win a cup. Is it fair? No. But cups will put Crosby etc over McDavid's 0.

 

[jigglysquishy]

McDavid has basically been playing at 140-150 point pace for 3 seasons now, with the exception of a 20 game stretch last season before the coaching change.

This year is exceptional from a goal scoring standpoint, largely from a newfound success at 5 hole. And no longer being pass first so just plain shooting more.

The Oilers powerplay going from awful to all time largely explains the interseason change. In 2018, McDavid won the Art Ross by 6 points. Fairly boring at first glance, until you see the Oilers had the worst powerplay in the league. Even a 15th place powerplay transforms his 108 points to 120 and the 6 point margin into a very strong 18 point margin. I believe that's the only Art Ross in history to come from a league worst powerplay.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Just an idea, but what if CB comes in next year and drops 40-50? The thing is, with all due respect, CB is not some player in juniors. He's in the same extremely rarified pre-NHL class that McDavid was. For that, the two already command comparison to each other. Unless CB is a bust, I expect this will intensify. So maybe McDavid feels that coming, and that has some sort of affect his goal scoring production.

I guarantee that he is not playing with some extra motivation to flex on a kid in Juniors. Maybe once Bedard makes the NHL and if he starts living up to the hype, McDavid will want to keep up the pressure to assure he wins the Art Ross, but as of now, Bedard shouldn't really be on McDavid's radar (although he's likely heard of him).