Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[authentic]

That obviously fair enough when comparing league wide but every Oilers had to deal with the same goaltending.

#	Name	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	Birthdate	Age	Birthplace	Hght	Wght
25	Darnell Nurse	D	65	6	27	33	58	19	1995-02-04	27	Hamilton, ONT	6.04	221
18	Zach Hyman	L	64	29	43	72	35	14	1992-06-09	30	Toronto, ONT	6.01	211
21	Klim Kostin	C	42	10	8	18	55	12	1999-05-05	23	Penza, Russia	6.03	215
5	Cody Ceci	D	65	1	11	12	22	10	1993-12-21	28	Ottawa, ONT	6.02	210
97	Connor McDavid	C	65	54	70	124	26	10	1997-01-13	25	Richmond Hill, ONT	6.01	193
73	Vincent Desharnais	D	20	0	4	4	21	9	1996-05-29	26	Laval, PQ	6.06	21

Peak Mario was on team where it was easy to be -22, -35 with enough ice time with many of the games being Frank Peitrangelo, Steve Guenette, Wendell Young in goals.

Still, his line was a dominating force of nature:

#	Player Name	Pos.	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Birthplace	Age
66	Mario Lemieux	F	76	85	114	199	100	41	11	12	7	19	16	PQ: Montreal	22
12	Bob Errey	L	76	26	32	58	124	40	11	1	2	3	12	PQ: Montreal	23
44	Rob Brown	R	68	49	66	115	118	27	11	5	3	8	22	ONT: Kingston	20
33	Zarley Zalapski	D	58	12	33	45	57	9	11	1	8	9	13	ALTA: Edmonton	20
6	Jim Johnson	D	76	2	14	16	163	7	11	0	5	5	44	MN: New Hope	2

The others center of the teams were like -12, -25 and -37 that year, Bob Errey was a marginal nhler before that season, Brown had a lot of talent but not a 2 way force by any mean.

It is not fair maybe, but to get to be considered to be at helping a team outscore and win hockey game than peak Bobby Orr/Mario was, I think many would want for him to show it.

And specially in a context without great teammate-goaltending-system, great tend to have did it.

20 years old Gretzky was +41 on a team that was quite the minus team without him on the ice (Messier was -12) with terrible below league average .861 save percentage goaltending from a combinaison Eddie Mio, Ron Low and Gary Edwards. The year after he was +80 on a team with no one else above +45

If you want to be in that type of player talk, your team should score significantly more goals than the other team because of you, specially if you get mediocre and not terrible goaltending like the oilers are this year.

Actually you're right, it's a bit strange that he has a lower +/- than Hyman and Nurse. Could it be a case of a low on ice save%? That was the case with Matthews last season when he had high goals against numbers.

 

[MadLuke]

Actually you're right, it's a bit strange that he has a lower +/- than Hyman and Nurse. Could it be a case of a low on ice save%? That was the case with Matthews last season when he had high goals against numbers.

McDavid PDO of .99 is virtually the average 1.0, really close to Nurse 1.005 or hyman 101, it is not like Crosby 97.3 in 2020

(5v5) on ice save percentage

Nurse......: 89.5% pdo: 100.0
McDavid: 90.1% pdo: 99.2
Hyman...: 89.9% pdo: 101.0

 

[Staniowski]

There's an increasing number of hockey people - though still a minority - who think McDavid is the best hockey player ever, so, for these people, presumably he'll be #1. For everybody else, if McDavid scores, etc. at roughly the same level he's at right now, he'll be evaluated very highly obviously. It will be interesting, for sure.

 

[Staniowski]

...McDavid would need at least 2 cups...to threaten Lemieux's place IMO.

That's crazy. There are things you can glean from players when they play for good teams (or bad teams), but players are essentially the same whether they play with a bunch of other good players, or they don't. When they do play with a bunch of other good players (or an elite functioning team), they can win a Stanley Cup; when they don't, they generally can't. This is true for all hockey players.

 

[MXD]

To the question : Yes. Or make it a Big-5.

But what I'm not quite sure about is whether he'll need better competition.

 

[The Panther]

You mentioned Ovi and that's a good comparison. Do you think Ovi was ever more than an indifferent checking forward? Yet he still ended up around +40 one season. Because they had solid goaltending and more competent D.

I'm wondering if you've watched McDavid play since 2021? He is quite good defensively these days. Often, he's excellent, in fact.

The usual pattern at 5-on-5 with the Oilers these days is that when the opposition has the puck, McDavid is down low, in the trenches, often bodying players to get puck possession, while Zach Hyman is up high, waiting for the outlet pass.

McDavid has also been killing penalties since mid-season, and since he started doing it, the Oilers PK has improved (though there are other reasons for that).

The only time McDavid looks bad defensively is when he and Draisaitl are playing on the same line. This problem goes back to 2018 or so, and it seems to be that they get confused as to whose role it is to play the winger's defensive position and whose role it is to play the center's. But when McDavid centers his own line with actual wingers (or Nugent-Hopkins), he is very good defensively. Like, if you compare him to Gretzky or Lemieux, he looks like Gainey or Bergeron.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Don't even bring this up unless there is cups and smythes

 

[The Panther]

The McDavid for/against argument regarding Even Strength results (plus/minus, basically) is interesting. I can see legit arguments both ways.

I will say that I don't think Mario Lemieux in general (or post-prime Gretzky, for obvious reasons) are good standards of excellence in plus/minus. It was noted that Lemieux was +41 in his great 1988-89 season on a leaky team. That does sound good (and is), but Lemieux also had 120 scoring points at evens or short-handed that season, on a club that scored 347 goals. He was on the ice for 103 ES/SH goals against, which is a lot. (McDavid is currently pacing to be on ice for 87 such goals-against this season, which, given era differences, is probably about the same.) Don't get me wrong, Lemieux's +41 that season is still very, very good, as is (of course) his +55 (in only sixty games!) in 1992-93. But outside of those two seasons, he was just... okay at evens, never dominant at all. Really, in sum, Lemieux had one complete season where he was dominant at even strength.

As of today, after nearly eight regular seasons, McDavid sits at +15 per 82 games in his career. For Mario, after eight regular seasons, he was +8 per 82 games in his career. (McDavid +38 per 82 in the playoffs, Lemieux +32, and that included TWO Stanley Cups.) I don't state this with any judgement meant, as it was "easier" to score higher pluses and lower minuses in Lemieux's first-half of career than subsequently, but if the argument is that Lemieux had a peak even strength dominance greater than McDavid's after eight seasons, I don't see it, and also we obviously need to wait a few more years to judge McDavid against Mario's post-1992 career.

Overall, since McDavid's second season (his first full season), he is handily first in ES points, by a margin of 96 points over the next non-teammate (Draisaitl is actually second and is still 88 behind McDavid in more games played).

But one thing I do find a bit odd is how McDavid---still very much in his physical prime---became less dominant scoring at ES after he was 21 or 22 years old. At 20 and 21, he completely dominated the League at ES. Mario Lemieux never did so at that age (in fact, he only occasionally did so later at his peak). Gretzky did so by enormous margins for his first 12 years, but then, as many players do after their physical primes end, he fell off and depended much more on PP scoring from age 30-31 onward.

Having watched the Oilers through McDavid's career, my feeling is that McDavid killed himself (so to speak) to score at ES circa 2016-2019, only to mostly see the team fall flat. Their PP started going supernova around midway through 2019-20, which is also when the team re-entered the playoff picture. As with Mario on the late-80s Penguins, the Oilers the past few years have probably consciously realized that their PP is their best chance to win, even if this is somewhat unsustainable in the playoffs. But, as we all saw last spring, McDavid still had that "5th gear" at ES when he needs it.

Finally, let's remember that plus/minus is always 80% dependent on players on the ice besides the player we're talking about. I mean, Kucherov is -3 right now. What's his excuse?

 

[Nerowoy nora tolad]

In terms of player comparisons across eras (not my favorite thing to begin with), one thing that I've kind of thrown out in the salary cap era is Cup counting. Like, @ResilientBeast said McDavid would need 2 Cups and then a handful more of peak-level seasons to threaten Lemieux. The peak level seasons I agree with, but "2 Cups"?

Not to overstate it, but it is harder than at any time in history right now to win 1 Cup, let alone two. I mean, since 2004, how many superstar players have won multiple Cups? I guess, Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov....

Of course, if the given star player does win many Cups, it's great, and assuming his performance was key to these, it adds a lot to his legacy.

But I just don't think we can realistically expect the same championship achievement of most superstar players today that we might have done in the 70s or 90s.

The group of Robitaille, Hasek, Francis, Bourque, Belfour are all excellent players that probably wouldnt have cup rings at all in an era where you usually stay with the team that drafted you for the first 6-7 years of your career, stacking a roster is impossible with the cap, and picking the cup winner is a crapshoot when you finally hit free agency (see Perry, Corey, 2022)

Another reason why cup counting is silly. Players should be sharply graded based on their playoff performances more than regular season, but theres no meaningful difference between mcdavids playoffs last year and if he puts up the same numbers in a cup winning effort in the finals against Tampa

 

[MadLuke]

, stacking a roster is impossible with the cap

That goes a bit both ways, you do not face the stacked roster (well peak Tampa could have an argument), winning a cup now could be argued to be easier than for non Wings-Canadian players in a different time.

And has for the cap, because individual player have a maximum cap, the bset player by a good margin team start with a nice advantage.

In a world were Tavares cost 11 millions on the cap, Seguin-Benn-Stone-Backstrom 9.x paying McDavid 12 million instead of his actual value give you an head start and no one can stack a team in a way that make it impossible for a super talent to not win because he face a 1976 Montreal type team year after year

 

[The Macho King]

I'm wondering if you've watched McDavid play since 2021? He is quite good defensively these days. Often, he's excellent, in fact.

The usual pattern at 5-on-5 with the Oilers these days is that when the opposition has the puck, McDavid is down low, in the trenches, often bodying players to get puck possession, while Zach Hyman is up high, waiting for the outlet pass.

McDavid has also been killing penalties since mid-season, and since he started doing it, the Oilers PK has improved (though there are other reasons for that).

The only time McDavid looks bad defensively is when he and Draisaitl are playing on the same line. This problem goes back to 2018 or so, and it seems to be that they get confused as to whose role it is to play the winger's defensive position and whose role it is to play the center's. But when McDavid centers his own line with actual wingers (or Nugent-Hopkins), he is very good defensively. Like, if you compare him to Gretzky or Lemieux, he looks like Gainey or Bergeron.

He's not and you're lying to yourself but I'll let fans cook.

 

[FinProspects]

The interesting thing is, what Connor will do after 25-26 season? He is 29 then. If Edm has not found a way to build championship team by then, I think it would be quite obvious for him to move elsewhere.

The guy has done everything in his power to win - I think change of scenery would be reasonable choice. 4 chances for edm to win the cup before the contract expiry.

 

[sr edler]

The only time McDavid looks bad defensively is when he and Draisaitl are playing on the same line. This problem goes back to 2018 or so, and it seems to be that they get confused as to whose role it is to play the winger's defensive position and whose role it is to play the center's.

They get confused?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

He's not and you're lying to yourself but I'll let fans cook.

He's better defensively than 2 of the Big 4.

 

[MadLuke]

Can make us wonder a little bit, what would that mean for Jagr legacy if McDavid would to stop to play right now.

94-95 to 2000-2001 NHL, min 250. games played
PPG
Jagr....: 1.54
Lindros.: 1.35
Sakic...: 1.30
Forsberg: 1.24
Selanne.: 1.23
Kariya..: 1.20


2016-2017 to today NHL, min 250. games played
PPG
McDavid..: 1.52
Kucherov.: 1.34
Draisaitl: 1.27
MacKinnon: 1.21
Marchand.: 1.18
Crosby...: 1.18

Virtually the same domination point wise if we say that Lindros-Sakic-Forsberg-Selanne-Kariya (playing together) is similar competition to Kucherov-Drai-Mack-Marchand and old Crosby.

5 art ross for Jagr, loosing one to Mario 160 points, McDavid will win his 5th one, Jagr was second to Gretzky in playoff ppg first among those with high volume of game in the playoff has well during that time frame. Jagr was +154 while doing that, third in the league and very close to number 1, McDavid an impressive but lower +103, 11th in the league with a large separation from the top.

One big difference, winning 5 Art Ross in a short windows was took for granted when Jagr did it, McDavid is doing it when people just restarted to think that it was impossible in modern hockey environment again and he is a bit younger and seem to still be going in a positive direction so his likely to end up doing it for longer.

 

[GMR]

The interesting thing is, what Connor will do after 25-26 season? He is 29 then. If Edm has not found a way to build championship team by then, I think it would be quite obvious for him to move elsewhere.

The guy has done everything in his power to win - I think change of scenery would be reasonable choice. 4 chances for edm to win the cup before the contract expiry.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Can make us wonder a little bit, what would that mean for Jagr legacy if McDavid would to stop to play right now.

94-95 to 2000-2001 NHL, min 250. games played
PPG
Jagr: 1.54
Lindros: 1.35
Sakic: 1.30
Forsberg: 1.24
Selanne: 1.23
Kariya: 1.20


2016-2017 to today NHL, min 250. games played
PPG
McDavid: 1.52
Kucherov: 1.34
Draisaitl: 1.27
MacKinnon: 1.21
Marchand/Crosby: 1.18

Virtually the same domination point wise if we say that Lindros-Sakic-Forsberg-Selanne-Kariya (playing together) is similar competition to Kucherov-Drai-Mack-Marchand and old Crosby.

5 art ross for Jagr, loosing one to Mario 160 points, McDavid will win his 5th one, Jagr was second to Gretzky in playoff ppg first among those with high volume of game in the playoff has well during that time frame. Jagr was +154 while doing that, third in the league and very close to number 1, McDavid an impressive but lower +103, 11th in the league with a large separation from the top.

One big difference, winning 5 Art Ross in a short windows was took for granted when Jagr did it, McDavid is doing it when people just restarted to think that it was impossible in modern hockey environment again and he is a bit younger and seem to still be going in a positive direction so his likely to end up doing it for longer.

There a couple of thing that will work in McDavid's factor.

1) No Lemieux. Jagr doesn't guy the eye popping numbers in 1996 or win the Art Ross in 2001 without Lemieux. Having not just a near contemporary, but a teammate so widely outperform Jagr will always put a damper on his reputation
2) McDavid's consistency. 7 top 2 finishes in 7 years is only bested by Gretzky. Jagr gets close, but having one of his wins be a tie and another of his top 2 being outside the time frame hurts the director comparison.
3) Better single season. Whether we count 2021 or 2023, McDavid will be remembered as having the higher peak. Outright leading in goals and assists is such a rare accomplishment.
4) Better single playoffs. Jagr straight up does not have a playoffs of the caliber of McDavid 2022

 

[MadLuke]

No Lemieux. Jagr doesn't guy the eye popping numbers in 1996 or win the Art Ross in 2001 without Lemieux

He probably win the 1996 Art Ross with no Lemieux too, he lead the league in even strength point by a giant amount (20 over Lindros) on Francis line like he would have without Lemieux.

Loose the Ross in 2001 to Sakic to make up for it, but having Art Ross-Hart Drai on your line a lot of the time/PP is not playing with Mario Lemieux but still quite something.

96-97 hole do hurt jagr (the only season someone that his not Lemieux scoring more points than him), but:
Points Per Game

1.	Mario Lemieux* • PIT	1.61
2.	Eric Lindros* • PHI	1.52
3.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	1.51
4.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	1.43

3) Better single season. Whether we count 2021 or 2023, McDavid will be remembered as having the higher peak.

Will see how it would go, 98-99 is hard to say versus 2021, with my adjustment cooking:

players	season	Game played	Adjusted ppg
Wayne Gretzky	19831984	74	2.63
Wayne Gretzky	19851986	80	2.62
Mario Lemieux	19921993	60	2.58
Mario Lemieux	19881989	76	2.54
Mario Lemieux	19951996	70	2.5
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	80	2.48
Wayne Gretzky	19861987	79	2.46
Wayne Gretzky	19821983	80	2.45
Wayne Gretzky	19811982	80	2.4
Connor McDavid	20202021	56	2.36
Wayne Gretzky	19871988	64	2.32
Jaromir Jagr	19981999	81	2.29
Gordie Howe	19521953	70	2.17
Mario Lemieux	19871988	77	2.17
Jaromir Jagr	19992000	63	2.17

1999 was a full regular season, which would make many call it a tie, this year could see McDavid take that title for sure, the retire now being a bit litteral.

If McDavid retire now, I feel his prime is incredibly close to Jagr (not sure there is a case of 2 all time great being so much on the nose, until now Crosby-McDavid were per game close to a point to be strange, but Crosby missed games made it significantly different by whole season reasons, with Jagr it is 5 art ross to 5 art ross run in 7 season).

And I feel McDavid prime is really up there for the best non Gretzky ever already, which by that logic should put Jagr has well in that tier.

 

[JackSlater]

He's better defensively than 2 of the Big 4.

He is, but I'm not sure that it matters at all in an all time discussion where the players are in such rarified air and being better defensively than Gretzky and Lemieux requires so little. Howe gets a boost for defensive play relative to the other very top forwards and obviously Orr is a completely different class than the others when it comes to defence.

There a couple of thing that will work in McDavid's factor.

1) No Lemieux. Jagr doesn't guy the eye popping numbers in 1996 or win the Art Ross in 2001 without Lemieux. Having not just a near contemporary, but a teammate so widely outperform Jagr will always put a damper on his reputation
2) McDavid's consistency. 7 top 2 finishes in 7 years is only bested by Gretzky. Jagr gets close, but having one of his wins be a tie and another of his top 2 being outside the time frame hurts the director comparison.
3) Better single season. Whether we count 2021 or 2023, McDavid will be remembered as having the higher peak. Outright leading in goals and assists is such a rare accomplishment.
4) Better single playoffs. Jagr straight up does not have a playoffs of the caliber of McDavid 2022

At this point it's pretty unthinkable that Jagr will end up ranked above McDavid by more than a small fringe barring some disastrous injury. I see them as fairly similar players in terms of calibre but McDavid's case looks better, especially if this season ends up being as strong as it looks thus far for McDavid.

 

[ResilientBeast]

That's crazy. There are things you can glean from players when they play for good teams (or bad teams), but players are essentially the same whether they play with a bunch of other good players, or they don't. When they do play with a bunch of other good players (or an elite functioning team), they can win a Stanley Cup; when they don't, they generally can't. This is true for all hockey players.

He's going to need to win at least one.

I agree with you wholeheartedly in principal but he will never make it into a big 5 without winning cups.

 

[MadLuke]

At this point it's pretty unthinkable that Jagr will end up ranked above McDavid by more than a small fringe barring some disastrous injury.

I think be the end of this season with a strong playoff McDavid pass Jagr prime wise already.

The point was more McDavid prime his already feel like it is up there competing with the best non Gretzky can offer and right now, if he retire today do feel to me almost on the nose the same has Jagr.

 

[The Macho King]

He's better defensively than 2 of the Big 4.

Probably. Not enough to matter.

BTW I also don't care - his resume speaks for itself and it's fantastic.

 

[Pi]

McDavid for me will be top 3. Only question is if he will be above Lemieux or below.

He's going to put up over 2000 points.

 

[Video Nasty]

With health, absolutely.

We’re beginning to see the idea of him being a clear #5 gain steam. There is also more talk of him remolding the Big Four into a Big Five.

What isn’t being mentioned is that much like the Big Four, while there is a widely agreed upon ranking of the four players, there are still supporters of each of them over the other three and cases can be made. For the Big Five to live up to its name, it would be the same for McDavid.

If he remains fairly healthy, continues to rack up the amount of hardware that is only rivaled by Gretzky, joins Gretzky in the 2000 point club, wins the Cups with more strong Conn Smythe worthy runs, and whatever other dominance he ends up displaying, his case is going to be really strong, especially for those who favor players with both insane peaks and longevity.

And when more of the old guard pass on, the ones who go into paralysis at the mere mention of the Big Four being remolded, you’ll see more acceptance of rearranging the rankings.

Maybe he’ll always “just” be #5, similar to how Lemieux is commonly ranked #4, but just like Mario, there will be a very vocal crowd that will say he deserves higher.

And if he continues the masterpiece symphony in progress, I will be amongst them.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think he's quite possibly going to end up being that guy.

BUT, he very badly needs to win at least one Stanley Cup or we're going to have a rich-man's-Dionne argument on our hands forever. Especially in the media where narratives get simplified.