Proposal: Calvin Pickard to Ottawa

[Hale The Villain]

NOTE: This deal doesn't have to happen right now. Could happen any time during or after the season (as long as it is before the expansion draft).

Gabriel Gagne/Filip Chlapik, Hammond

Calvin Pickard

With Anderson already being 35 and no top prospects at the goaltending position in the organization after trading Lehner, the Sens are in need of a future #1 goalie. Hogberg, O'Connor and Driedger have NHL potential but none of them realistically look like future #1 goaltenders at this time. Even if one of them does end up a starting goalie, it will likely be many years down the road. Anderson is going to be a 37 year old UFA in a couple seasons and the Sens will need to replace him. Pickard has had very solid numbers behind Varlamov the past two seasons and looks to have #1 potential. Pickard can split starts with Anderson and take over as the #1 goalie when he leaves via UFA or retires at the end of the 2017/18 season.

With the expansion draft coming up, Avs can only protect one goalie, and I think most are in agreement that Varlamov will be that goalie. If Pickard is traded it will probably be for futures (just like in the case of 90% of goalie trades). Since the Avs have a good future on the blueline with Barrie, Johnson, Bigras, Zadorov, Meloche etc... a good forward prospect or a high pick would probably be the ideal piece going back. Gagne/Chlapik are good forward prospects that were recently drafted in the 2nd round. Having not done much to increase or decrease their worth since then, their value is probably that of a 2nd round pick. Hammond goes the other way as Pickard's replacement as Varlamov's backup goalie. Not that he's a cap dump at 1.35M, but Sens could probably throw in a mid-round pick as compensation for taking Hammond as well.

Thoughts?

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[Vatican Roulette]

Counter; Lazar.

 

[Avs44]

The Avs are not moving Pickard right now...and I don't think there is any consensus the protected goalie will be Varly. This year will be a big year to determine that, but Varly has injury concerns and consistency issues, not to mention costing 5.9 million. Pickard might very easily be the protected goalie, and certainly the Avs won't be making that decision until they've at least got a good idea of where they are both at this season. Therefore, no, and the value isn't tempting whatsoever either.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Counter; Lazar.

Overpayment.

Goalies rarely return values equivalent to 1st round picks, especially those that don't have a history of being a starting goalie. Plus expansion will hurt Pickard's value. Limited number of suitors typically means a limited return.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Overpayment.

Goalies rarely return values equivalent to 1st round picks, especially those that don't have a history of being a starting goalie. Plus expansion will hurt Pickard's value. Limited number of suitors typically means a limited return.

Really. I mean really?

Isn't there a guy in Buffalo...

 

[Hale The Villain]

The Avs are not moving Pickard right now...and I don't think there is any consensus the protected goalie will be Varly. This year will be a big year to determine that, but Varly has injury concerns and consistency issues, not to mention costing 5.9 million. Pickard might very easily be the protected goalie, and certainly the Avs won't be making that decision until they've at least got a good idea of where they are both at this season. Therefore, no, and the value isn't tempting whatsoever either.

Like I said at the top of the post, a Pickard trade doesn't have to take place right now. Can take place at the end of the season for all I care.

If the Avs decide to protect Pickard than I'm sure the Sens would be interested in acquiring an established #1 goaltender in Varlamov, who's still young at 28. Either goalie works for me.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

The Avs are not moving Pickard right now...and I don't think there is any consensus the protected goalie will be Varly. This year will be a big year to determine that, but Varly has injury concerns and consistency issues, not to mention costing 5.9 million. Pickard might very easily be the protected goalie, and certainly the Avs won't be making that decision until they've at least got a good idea of where they are both at this season. Therefore, no, and the value isn't tempting whatsoever either.

Pretty much this exactly.

They have all season to see who they want for the future. I think when its all said and done, Pickard will be the one protected and Varly exposed or traded for anything if they feel they would lose him.

 

[Avs44]

Like I said at the top of the post, a Pickard trade doesn't have to take place right now. Can take place at the end of the season for all I care.

If the Avs decide to protect Pickard than I'm sure the Sens would be interested in acquiring an established #1 goaltender in Varlamov, who's still young at 28. Either goalie works for me.

Well then we hit the debate of....what's more valuable to the Avs? Losing one of their two goalies to expansion for nothing, BUT getting to keep everyone else on the team they might otherwise lose (Soderberg / Grigorenko), or the return for a goalie you're offering, but losing a pretty good roster player to LV for nothing? Again, your offer isn't at all good enough. It's not just 'is the return you're offering good enough for X considering the market for X is poor,' it's about incentivizing the Avs to accept that not only are they trading away a goalie due to expansion, but they'll also lose another roster player to expansion on top of that.


The question to me then as an Avs fan in the worst case scenario is would I rather have Gagne / Chlapik, or would I rather have Soderberg or Grigorenko? In both scenario's the Avs lose a goalie...and that is a really easy decision.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Really. I mean really?

Isn't there a guy in Buffalo...

Like I said, it rarely happens.

Lehner was a special case really. Was traded inside the division at a premium, and the guy trading for him was a big fan of him, having drafted him years before when he was in the Sens organization.

Are there any former Avs scouts who drafted Pickard that now run an organization in the Pacific division that have an abundance of picks, an open goalie spot to protect and a desperate need for a future #1 goalie?

 

[Avs44]

Like I said, it rarely happens.

Lehner was a special case really. Was traded inside the division at a premium, and the guy trading for him was a big fan of him, having drafted him years before when he was in the Sens organization.

Are there any former Avs scouts who drafted Pickard that now run an organization in the Pacific division that have an abundance of picks, an open goalie spot to protect and a desperate need for a future #1 goalie?

Okay....Jones from Boston for a first round pick to SJ. Cross conference, Jones had practically identical stats to Pickard now when he was traded.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Like I said, it rarely happens.

Lehner was a special case really. Was traded inside the division at a premium, and the guy trading for him was a big fan of him, having drafted him years before when he was in the Sens organization.

Are there any former Avs scouts who drafted Pickard that now run an organization in the Pacific division that have an abundance of picks, an open goalie spot to protect and a desperate need for a future #1 goalie?

Don't forget, they tagged on Legwand's useless butt to Lehner.

Jones went for a 1st
Varlamov went for a 1st
Schneider went for a high 1st.
And...Lehner.

Goalies go for 1st's.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Well then we hit the debate of....what's more valuable to the Avs? Losing one of their two goalies to expansion for nothing, BUT getting to keep everyone else on the team they might otherwise lose (Soderberg / Grigorenko), or the return for a goalie you're offering, but losing a pretty good roster player to LV for nothing? Again, your offer isn't at all good enough. It's not just 'is the return you're offering good enough for X considering the market for X is poor,' it's about incentivizing the Avs to accept that not only are they trading away a goalie due to expansion, but they'll also lose another roster player to expansion on top of that.


The question to me then as an Avs fan in the worst case scenario is would I rather have Gagne / Chlapik, or would I rather have Soderberg or Grigorenko? In both scenario's the Avs lose a goalie...and that is a really easy decision.

You raise a good point. Maybe expansion isn't a reason for the Avs to trade Pickard if it prevents Vegas from taking another player on the team.

If Vegas passes on Pickard, which I could definitely see happening if Grigorenko or Soderberg are available, would that be a time when the Avs would consider trading one of their goalies?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Don't forget, they tagged on Legwand's useless butt to Lehner.

Jones went for a 1st
Varlamov went for a 1st
Schneider went for a high 1st.
And...Lehner.

Goalies go for 1st's.

Again, I didn't say goalies don't go for 1sts, I said it rarely happens. When it does rarely happen it's usually a better goalie than Pickard going the other way.

If the decision is made to trade Pickard, it's probably optimistic to expect a 1st round pick (or player with comparative value) coming back, especially considering the timing.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Again, I didn't say goalies don't go for 1sts, I said it rarely happens. When it does rarely happen it's usually a better goalie than Pickard going the other way.

If the decision is made to trade Pickard, it's probably optimistic to expect a 1st round pick (or player with comparative value) coming back, especially considering the timing.

I'm not an Avs fan to say the least.

Pickard would bring back a 1st.

Also, in trading Pickard, the Avs have to keep Valarmov at 5.9 mill.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Keeping in mind the the Avalanche are my "other" favourite team, I think something around Methot for Pickard with other moving pieces could be a good basis for a trade after the 2017 season but before the expansion draft.

Colorado will lose Pickard, Ottawa will lose Methot. Why not swap them?

Beachemin played big minutes for Colorado last season, but at his age every year that goes by can have a big effect on a player's ability. Colorado will need another steady LD to play big minutes, and there is no guarantee that Zadorov or Bigras will be ready for top pairing duties next year.

This would hinge on both teams feeling that there is a good chance they'll lose Methot and Pickard, as well as Beauchemin's willingness to waive his NMC instead of being bought out (there's a buyout period before the expansion draft, right?). Lastly it would hinge on Grigorenko not breaking out this upcoming season because he'd have to be left exposed.

Colorado would go 4-4 and protect Landeskog/Mack/Soderberg/Duchene-Johnson/Barrie/Zadorov/Methot-Varlamov. They'd lose either Grigorenko or Colborne. Bigras is exempt.

Ottawa would leave Anderson unprotected, but LV isn't likely to take a 36 year old goalie on the final year of his contract who probably has little interest in moving away from Ottawa.

Colorado gets a #3 LD who has played on Ottawa's top pair next to Karlsson, Ottawa gets their goalie of the future while keeping Anderson for another year.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Overpayment.

Goalies rarely return values equivalent to 1st round picks, especially those that don't have a history of being a starting goalie. Plus expansion will hurt Pickard's value. Limited number of suitors typically means a limited return.

I don't buy this. We just saw Jones and Lehner both fetch 1st round picks. There is a long history of other young goalies getting similar returns (Lindback, Schneider, Halak). Even an unproven Bishop got a 2nd from Ottawa when he was originally traded by STL.

Pickard is a blue chip goalie almost ready to start. It is a fair point that the timing of the trade could hurt his value since there'll be multiple goalies on the market but it is hard to say. If Colorado stands pat, and someone really wants him, a 1st isn't that farfetched.

I don't think Ottawa would move Lazar, but Lazar for Pickard seems very fair to me. I think Pickard would be worth more than Lazar if Colorado wasn't forced to move him because of the expansion draft.

 

[strictlyrandy]

With all the goalies that will be exposed, I don't think Picks will be the one to get claimed. Regardless, I think the Avs will either trade a pick or two to Vegas and in return the Avs keep Picks. That or either of them get traded before then. Varly knows it's a battle for the crease right now and Picks is a gamer. Definitely one of the more interesting years to watch goalies in Colorado.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

With all the goalies that will be exposed, I don't think Picks will be the one to get claimed. Regardless, I think the Avs will either trade a pick or two to Vegas and in return the Avs keep Picks. That or either of them get traded before then. Varly knows it's a battle for the crease right now and Picks is a gamer. Definitely one of the more interesting years to watch goalies in Colorado.

Assuming Beauchemin waives his NMC or gets bought out, I think there is a good chance Pickard gets selected from Colorado if they hold steady. If they are able to protect 7-3-1, their exposed players won't be very good.

On defense Johnson, Barrie, and Zadorov will be protected with Bigras exempt.

At forward the Avalanche don't have a lot of depth so 7 protection spots allows them to protect MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, Soderberg, Grigorenko, Colborne, and Comeau.

There's really no one that useful to take once those players are out of the equation. So if it comes down to taking a future starter like Pickard from Colorado, or taking it from a second team that has something else useful unprotected, from a strategic standpoint Vegas would have to take it from COL.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Assuming Beauchemin waives his NMC or gets bought out, I think there is a good chance Pickard gets selected from Colorado if they hold steady. If they are able to protect 7-3-1, their exposed players won't be very good.

On defense Johnson, Barrie, and Zadorov will be protected with Bigras exempt.

At forward the Avalanche don't have a lot of depth so 7 protection spots allows them to protect MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, Soderberg, Grigorenko, Colborne, and Comeau.

There's really no one that useful to take once those players are out of the equation. So if it comes down to taking a future starter like Pickard from Colorado, or taking it from a second team that has something else useful unprotected, from a strategic standpoint Vegas would have to take it from COL.

MacK, Duchene, Landeskog, EJ, Barrie, Zads, Grigs are really the only ones worth protecting. Soderberg is destined to be 3rd C on this team and while losing him hurts depth, it also would clear up some valuable cap space.

As I said, I think the Avs are bent on keeping Picks. This will be interesting to watch develop as I think they do everything they can to keep from losing him.

 

[Freudian]

2000 Expansion draft


* San Jose traded Jan Caloun, a ninth-round pick (Martin Paroulek) in the 2000 NHL Entry Draft, and a conditional pick (Aaron Johnson) in the 2001 NHL Entry Draft to Columbus on June 11, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Evgeni Nabokov.

* Buffalo traded Jean-Luc Grand-Pierre, Matt Davidson, and two fifth-round draft picks, one each in the 2000 (Tyler Kolarik) and 2001 (Andreas Jämtin) Entry Drafts, to Columbus on June 23, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Dominik Hasek or Martin Biron.

Teams aren't going to make bad trades out of fear one of their players will get picked.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

So would the Avs be interested in dealing Varlamov?

 

[BK201]

They like OConnor, Hogberg and Dreidger. We don't need a goaltending prospect.

 

[strictlyrandy]

So would the Avs be interested in dealing Varlamov?

If I recall there was a rumor they were shopping him at the draft. I think they're open to hearing offers on him as of right now anyway. I don't think they're in a rush to make a move, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was moved.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

They like OConnor, Hogberg and Dreidger. We don't need a goaltending prospect.

O'Connor is falling out of favour quickly. Another lackluster season and he's done.

 

[Avsblitzkrieg]

If I recall there was a rumor they were shopping him at the draft. I think they're open to hearing offers on him as of right now anyway. I don't think they're in a rush to make a move, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was moved.

How mich of that was Roy? I don't see the avs trading much this year.

To the OP; thanks, but no thanks.