Proposal: Calvin Pickard to Ottawa

[strictlyrandy]

How mich of that was Roy? I don't see the avs trading much this year.

To the OP; thanks, but no thanks.

That's a good question to be honest. I see the goalies as really the only players that could be traded. I think with the new coach, they're gonna see what they have this year and tweak. Also wouldn't be surprised if Sakic made a big move either. Who knows with the Avs, they're so secret that it's hard to predict. I know the Dutchy rumors got spun up last season because of Roy. Really happy they didn't listen to him.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Teams aren't going to make bad trades out of fear one of their players will get picked.

You can't compare this expansion draft to the previous ones where the expansions teams options from each team were extremely limited. When choosing between junk-a and junk-b getting a late draft pick is more valuable because the expansion team was going to end up with a mostly useless player anyway.

This draft, there'll be lots of valuable assets and solid mid level NHL players exposed. What a team will have to offer to Vegas in a trade in order to convince them not to select a player will be higher than just a late pick. It will depend on how much Vegas wants the best unexposed player and how great the difference in value is between the best exposed player and the second best exposed player. If Beauchemin waives and COL is able to go 7-3-1, the difference between Pickard and whoever else is exposed will be big. Colorado could strategically expose someone like Colborne or Grigorenko (although I am high on him) and hope LV bites on one of them instead of Pickard, but it still isn't a sure thing.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

They like OConnor, Hogberg and Dreidger. We don't need a goaltending prospect.

Right.

Except Pickard isn't a prospect anymore, and on top of that he is significantly further along in development and in skill over all 3 of those guys.

Pickard is potentially one of the top available goalies this year(If he's even available). He's still young, on a very cheap contract, already has shown some really good skill at the NHL level, and has lots more room to grow.


As for the OPs deal, it would take a lot more then that for us to move him. We'd easily rather keep Pick and just offer LV a 6th or 7th rounder for them not to take Pickard if we dont want to protect him and protect Varly instead.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

They like OConnor, Hogberg and Dreidger. We don't need a goaltending prospect.

Those prospects are all fine and good if Anderson can keep up his level of play until he is nearly 40. O'Connor is the closest age wise to the NHL, and although he isn't a bust (yet) he is far from a sure thing. Hogberg hasn't even played a season in a North American league, and Driedger is still only 22.

I don't think Anderson is done yet, but Pickard's timeline and contract works perfectly with Anderson's. I'd love to see Anderson stay as a solid starter until he is nearly 40, and maybe it'll happen, but at one point the Senators are going to have to start preparing for a time when Anderson is no longer able to carry the team in net. That time could come as soon as the next two or so seasons, and there is a significant chance that no one in the system will be ready to take over. Because teams can only protect one goalie, the expansion draft presents an opportunity for Ottawa to get a goalie who otherwise might not have been traded.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Right.

Except Pickard isn't a prospect anymore, and on top of that he is significantly further along in development and in skill over all 3 of those guys.

Pickard is potentially one of the top available goalies this year(If he's even available). He's still young, on a very cheap contract, already has shown some really good skill at the NHL level, and has lots more room to grow.


As for the OPs deal, it would take a lot more then that for us to move him. We'd easily rather keep Pick and just offer LV a 6th or 7th rounder for them not to take Pickard if we dont want to protect him and protect Varly instead.

This is a very unrealistic expectation. Just because teams got away with offering late picks for 90s expansion teams to take scrub a instead of scrub b doesn't mean Vegas will be stupid enough to accept a 7th rounder to potentially take a depth forward or a b-level prospect instead of Calvin Pickard.

 

[Devils820]

Don't forget, they tagged on Legwand's useless butt to Lehner.

Jones went for a 1st
Varlamov went for a 1st
Schneider went for a high 1st.
And...Lehner.

Goalies go for 1st's.

Bobrovsky went for a 2nd.
Elliot went for a 2nd.
Bernier went for a 2nd.
Talbot went for a 2nd
Hell, Mason went for a 3rd.


Better goalies have gone for less

Pickard has played roughly 30 NHL games, I don't see him having that kind of value yet

 

[Avs44]

Bobrovsky went for a 2nd.
Elliot went for a 2nd.
Bernier went for a 2nd.
Talbot went for a 2nd
Hell, Mason went for a 3rd.


Better goalies have gone for less

Pickard has played roughly 30 NHL games, I don't see him having that kind of value yet

36 games. Martin Jones had played 34 games, very similiar stats, he got a first round pick. Did he not have that kind of value yet?

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

This is a very unrealistic expectation. Just because teams got away with offering late picks for 90s expansion teams to take scrub a instead of scrub b doesn't mean Vegas will be stupid enough to accept a 7th rounder to potentially take a depth forward or a b-level prospect instead of Calvin Pickard.

or maybe there will be better goalies available? like fleury or bishop? the odds of pickard being a top 2 goalie avaible is also kind of low, now that doesnt mean he wont be picked, but there is a lot of variables that go into who gets chosen from each team.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

or maybe there will be better goalies available? like fleury or bishop? the odds of pickard being a top 2 goalie avaible is also kind of low, now that doesnt mean he wont be picked, but there is a lot of variables that go into who gets chosen from each team.

Fleury has a NMC and Bishop is a UFA meaning he'd have to want to sign with Vegas. Even if Vegas chooses Fleury or Bishop as their cornerstone goalie, that doesn't stop them from choosing Pickard as their 1B. Even if Vegas could have both Fleury and Bishop, Vegas isn't going to choose two expensive veteran starters. They'd choose one or the other, and then take a goalie like Pickard who is still cheap and RFA controlled but has starter potential which would give them options and value down the line.

Pickard will be signed for another year at 1M per and then Vegas can trade him for a decent return or depending on the contract status of their starter move on from him and give the reigns to Pickard. Basically, the exact same thing Colorado would have done with the Varlamov/Pickard tandem going forward had they not had their hand forced with an expansion draft.

If Beauchemin isn't bought out or doesn't waive his NMC, Colorado will at least have Grigorenko unprotected since they'll have to go 4-4 to protect all 4 defensemen. In that case, it is plausible that LV could pass on Pickard, but it isn't a sure thing. If Beauchemin waives and Colorado is able to protect 7 forwards, I can't see there being any way LV pass on Pickard. Colorado doesn't really have anything close to him in both value and practical usefulness unprotected.

There's a very good chance Colorado will be forced to choose between Varlamov or Pickard earlier than they otherwise would have liked to because of the expansion draft. It sucks, but I can't see any solution that gives Colorado an easy out for this.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

The simple fact is that the Avs have zero incentive to move Pickard for a value which does not make them a better team. Speculating on this occurring a year from now is pointless, teams can change drastically within a single season.

For the first time in a long, long time, the Avs have a stable and strong goaltending pipeline with Varlamov, Pickard and Martin.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

Fleury has a NMC and Bishop is a UFA meaning he'd have to want to sign with Vegas. Even if Vegas chooses Fleury or Bishop as their cornerstone goalie, that doesn't stop them from choosing Pickard as their 1B. Even if Vegas could have both Fleury and Bishop, Vegas isn't going to choose two expensive veteran starters. They'd choose one or the other, and then take a goalie like Pickard who is still cheap and RFA controlled but has starter potential which would give them options and value down the line.

Pickard will be signed for another year at 1M per and then Vegas can trade him for a decent return or depending on the contract status of their starter move on from him and give the reigns to Pickard. Basically, the exact same thing Colorado would have done with the Varlamov/Pickard tandem going forward had they not had their hand forced with an expansion draft.

If Beauchemin isn't bought out or doesn't waive his NMC, Colorado will at least have Grigorenko unprotected since they'll have to go 4-4 to protect all 4 defensemen. In that case, it is plausible that LV could pass on Pickard, but it isn't a sure thing. If Beauchemin waives and Colorado is able to protect 7 forwards, I can't see there being any way LV pass on Pickard. Colorado doesn't really have anything close to him in both value and practical usefulness unprotected.

There's a very good chance Colorado will be forced to choose between Varlamov or Pickard earlier than they otherwise would have liked to because of the expansion draft. It sucks, but I can't see any solution that gives Colorado an easy out for this.

no it really doesnt though. every team knows they will loose ONE player. unless colorado can get market value for pickard, or varly, there is ZERO insentive to move either otherwise. sure they may be taken for nothing, but colorado will also no lose another player.

the fact is one player from every team will go to vegas. trading a player for a low value because you may lose him is dumb because you will then lose another player anyways.

and again, even if one is exposed there is never a guarantee that one will be taken. maybe LV really likes cody mcleod

 

[danielpalfredsson]

no it really doesnt though. every team knows they will loose ONE player. unless colorado can get market value for pickard, or varly, there is ZERO insentive to move either otherwise. sure they may be taken for nothing, but colorado will also no lose another player.

the fact is one player from every team will go to vegas. trading a player for a low value because you may lose him is dumb because you will then lose another player anyways.

and again, even if one is exposed there is never a guarantee that one will be taken. maybe LV really likes cody mcleod

For teams with two players exposed of similar value, this is true. If Colorado is able to protect 7-3 (Beauchemin waiving or bought out) that won't be the case. The difference between Pickard and Colorado's number 2 exposed player will be big.

Keep in mind, I am just commenting on the wider topic of a Pickard trade and I agree that unless the Avalanche had Gagne really high on their draft list, the proposal in the OP isn't good for Colorado, even with an expansion draft looming.

 

[SenzZen]

People are just posting "Jones got a first" without acknowledging just how unusual the Jones trade was?

Think a little harder, people.

 

[Avs44]

People are just posting "Jones got a first" without acknowledging just how unusual the Jones trade was?

Think a little harder, people.

Well your illuminating post certainly got me thinking, great contribution.

 

[landy92mack29]

Don't want to move Pickard over Varly but Francis Perron would be a good starting point

 

[Hale The Villain]

36 games. Martin Jones had played 34 games, very similiar stats, he got a first round pick. Did he not have that kind of value yet?

If Pickard has another excellent season with an above average SV%, solid GAA, and, preferably, a bigger sample size of 20-40 games, I think a Jones-type deal is probably fair value.

With another promising season under his belt, I don't think I'd be particularly upset if the Sens threw the Avs a Jones-type offer at the draft - a 2018 1st for Pickard. I'd definitely want some kind of protection added to the pick, just to make sure the deal doesn't potentially blow up in our face, but it's something that could probably be worked out.

Don't want to move Pickard over Varly but Francis Perron would be a good starting point

That could definitely be arranged.

 

[Stuzchuk]

to all SENS fans saying that Picard wouldnt cost much... yes, he'd cost a first or a couple of very good prospect

 

[BonkTastic]

Wait, are Sens fans balking at Lazar for Pickard? That's not nearly the unreasonable ask that some are suggesting. I'm intrigued.

Can we expand the trade a bit so that we give the Avs our high-end backup in Hammond for a pick? That way the Avs still have a very above-average backup (almost a 1B starter based on his track record), and we don't have to carry 3 goalies this year.

Pickard + 2nd
for
Lazar + Hammond + 3rd

 

[Ivan13]

I'd say there's a better chance Varly isn't an Av come 2018 than Calvin.

Not interested in any deal offered in this thread.

 

[bert]

Before the sens give up anything major for him I'd like to see him play more than 21 games in an NHL season. He is getting backup match ups pretty hard to evaluate that kind of goalie. Plus yes the expansion draft is going to hurt his value for obvious reasons. However I do agree the sens need a goalie sooner rather than later.

 

[varano]

Now that Roy is gone, Varlamov will not be protected. Pickard is the future.

Roy gave Varlamov an extremely long leash

 

[Ivan13]

Before the sens give up anything major for him I'd like to see him play more than 21 games in an NHL season. He is getting backup match ups pretty hard to evaluate that kind of goalie. Plus yes the expansion draft is going to hurt his value for obvious reasons. However I do agree the sens need a goalie sooner rather than later.

He did? He played as much games against the likes of Dallas, Chicago, and San Jose as he did against the Oilers.

Now that Roy is gone, Varlamov will not be protected. Pickard is the future.

Roy gave Varlamov an extremely long leash

Really?

 

[bert]

Now that Roy is gone, Varlamov will not be protected. Pickard is the future.

Roy gave Varlamov an extremely long leash

You're acting like Varlamov is no good... He was recently a Vezina finalist, his talent is undeniable. Colorado consistently gets shelled he's a damn good goalie and takes all the hard matchups. If Ottawa could land Varlamov id give up substantially more from a sens perspective than Pickard. Obviously at that point Anderson would need to be traded for money if its Valamov coming the other way.

If Methot needs to go the other way for money then so be it. Creates a big hole on the back end but he's legit.

He did? He played as much games against the likes of Dallas, Chicago, and San Jose as he did against the Oilers.



Really?

He played 20 games man. Need a bigger sample size than that to evaluate a goalie and justify giving up valuable assets.

 

[Ivan13]

You're acting like Varlamov is no good... He was recently a Vezina finalist, his talent is undeniable. Colorado consistently gets shelled he's a damn good goalie and takes all the hard matchups. If Ottawa could land Varlamov id give up substantially more from a sens perspective than Pickard. Obviously at that point Anderson would need to be traded for money if its Valamov coming the other way.

If Methot needs to go the other way for money then so be it. Creates a big hole on the back end but he's legit.



He played 20 games man. Need a bigger sample size than that to evaluate a goalie and justify giving up valuable assets.

Well, that's understandable, I'd be weary as well, but goalies with his experience and numbers have been traded for a pretty penny in the past.

 

[Bender]

Counter; Lazar.

This Avs fan says no thanks to your counter proposal. I'd want no part of Lazar, never liked him as a prospect and I still don't see the upside.

However, I DO like the OP's proposals, I think he made some really good proposals. I have always been a big fan of Chlapik's 2-way game and for that reason I'd be interested for sure. The Avs are also lacking big wingers with size and there were rumours they were interested in Gagné at the 2015 draft. Kudos to you for taking the other teams' needs in consideration.

I have to agree with my fellow Avs fans though, for any trade to happen, we'd need to see how the season starts before making a deal of this kind. I like both goalies well enough but I think Varly is the guy I'd stick with personally. He hasn't had a lot of help in recent years and shouldn't NEED to stand on his head to give us wins. Every now and again is nice but he hasn't been costing us wins, put it that way.

I will say that time isn't necessarily on the Avs side even though they don't NEED to a make a decision now, the closer they get to the expansion draft, the closer they get to being in a position to being forced to make a decision at some point.

Unless there is a major change within the roster, the Avs expansion protected draft list will be:

1F) MacKinnon
2F) Landeskog
3F) Duchene
4F) Soderberg

5D) E.Johnson
6D) Barrie
7D) Beauchemin
8D) Zadorov

G) Varly OR Pickard

I'd be extremely surprised if it was any different than that. The main question is which goalie they'll protect. I'd for sure prefer adding a prospect like Chlapik or Gagné rather than lose Pickard for nothing in the expansion draft. Depends what other teams are offering as well.