Value of: Calgary Contracts (Gaudreau, Tkachuk etc)

[Bank Shot]

Who is dumping good players?

Vegas is going to have to for one.
Florida doesn't even have enough space to fill out their roster with guys on league minimum.
Boston still probably going to trade Debrusk.
Minnesota will have to shed salary to sign Fiala or trade him.

Etc etc etc.

Cap strapped teams will be offering teams with cap space some pretty good options.

 

[Double Dion]

There is so much wrong about this, so I’ll go point by point.

Lindholm paced for 70 points last season spending the majority of it without Gaudreau and under Ward’s anemic system. He was literally our best offensive player the entire season up to Gaudreau being freed from broken Monahan and Ritchie. This year he is on pace for 85 points or a ~15 point boost, but how much of that is Gaudreau and how much is it Sutter.

For Tkachuk, him and Gaudreau had almost identical power play production that season at 24 and 27 Points respectively which probably explains the lions share of those shared points. Don’t know how I’d go about looking it up to fact check that though. Considering Gaudreau has never been an elite power play producer (1 season in his entire career in the top 20 for power play points), it’s not far fetched to say Tkachuk could do more on a better power play elsewhere. Regardless, it’s pretty absurd to think a 20/21 years olds point totals from the second line was his peak offensive production.

First things first for Monahan, he shot 15.7% his rookie season, which is pretty much his career average pre wrist surgery. Once again suggesting an 18 year old centers goal production is his peak and he never got better is baffling. He scored 31 goals with a 64 point Gaudreau the very next season.

Look at 5 on 5 production. PP production is irrelevant since he's been with Gaudreau the entire time.

Also do you think Sutter historically has helped players offensive production? It's actually quite the opposite. Hes typically helped a team's goals against substantially and they've scored less goals than the did previously. I'm not sure what your point is. Do you actually believe Tkachuk is a 100 point elite play driving winger?

If you do, then I don't really think you're worth posting with as you don't have a grasp on reality. Tkachuk is a good player, but he's useless between the top of the circle in both ends. He's a 80 point player at best and 80 point wingers aren't worth 11 million dollars. If he wants that we are better off trading him.

 

[Bank Shot]

Look at 5 on 5 production. PP production is irrelevant since he's been with Gaudreau the entire time.

Also do you think Sutter historically has helped players offensive production? It's actually quite the opposite. Hes typically helped a team's goals against substantially and they've scored less goals than the did previously. I'm not sure what your point is. Do you actually believe Tkachuk is a 100 point elite play driving winger?

If you do, then I don't really think you're worth posting with as you don't have a grasp on reality. Tkachuk is a good player, but he's useless between the top of the circle in both ends. He's a 80 point player at best and 80 point wingers aren't worth 11 million dollars. If he wants that we are better off trading him.

He'll want to be paid like a 100 point player. Same as Gaudreau. Johnny is not a consistent 100 point player either and this season his on-ice shooting % is at historical highs. He isn't likely to repeat 100 points next season but he'll still want to be paid like a 100 point player.

 

[Double Dion]

He'll want to be paid like a 100 point player. Same as Gaudreau. Johnny is not a consistent 100 point player either and this season his on-ice shooting % is at historical highs. He isn't likely to repeat 100 points next season but he'll still want to be paid like a 100 point player.

Gaudreau is a much much more impactful player offensively. He's the focal point of the other team every single game. I wouldn't hesitate to pay Gaudreau 11M. I would hesitate to pay Tkachuk 10.

Last season he was carrying around the broken corpse of Monahan and a replacement level player in Ritchie.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He'll want to be paid like a 100 point player. Same as Gaudreau. Johnny is not a consistent 100 point player either and this season his on-ice shooting % is at historical highs. He isn't likely to repeat 100 points next season but he'll still want to be paid like a 100 point player.

His 5v5 numbers are probably due for some regression, though the quality of the scoring chances he creates is really unparalleled.

He's likewise due for a bit of a bump in PP scoring, which probably offsets a good amount of the expected regression from 5v5 fall off.

He's on pace for 115 points, so he can afford a fair amount of regression and still be a 100 point player.

 

[Volica]

Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau are about to become the first Americans in 30 years to have 100 points, on the same team, in the same season.

‪Done only once previously, two American national team members, Brett Hull and Craig Janney did it in 1992-1993.‬

 

[Bank Shot]

His 5v5 numbers are probably due for some regression, though the quality of the scoring chances he creates is really unparalleled.

He's likewise due for a bit of a bump in PP scoring, which probably offsets a good amount of the expected regression from 5v5 fall off.

He's on pace for 115 points, so he can afford a fair amount of regression and still be a 100 point player.

Why is he due for a bump in PP scoring?

He's about average this season compared to the rest of his career on the PP. He's had 3 seasons better and 4 worse in terms of on ice shooting %.

You'd be surprised at how much points can fall off due to regression. If his on-ice shooting % at 5 on 5 reverts from 13.5% to 10% and the shots stay the same, Johnny would be on the ice for 24 fewer goals for at 5 on 5, and prior to this season Johnny only had two seasons where his on ice shooting was over 10%.

Guys usually don't start a string of consecutive 100 point seasons starting at age 28.

I guess it's possible but I sure wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Olaf Fub]

If this was discussed earlier in the thread, I apologize but when was the last time a 100+ player was an UFA?

The way teams spend day one of free agency, it is an unrealistic expectation that Gaudreau might end up being the highest paid player in hockey?

He's only four points behind McDavid/ Huberdeau for the league lead.

It's a contract year but he had a 99 point season in 2018-2019.

Tavares' best season was 86 points prior to signing with the Leafs. He got 11 million. Gaudreau has to be worth more, right?

Gaudreau plus 60 is the highest +/- this century. (It's the highest for a player since the mid-eighties.)

If a player can make a max of 20% of the cap and the cap is 82 million next year, then the max salary per is 16.4 million. That's a lot of real estate above McDavid's 12.5 million.

He might take less to stay in Calgary if he likes it there. He could go to a zero income tax state or something else might influence his decision. I think every team with the cap space to sign him is going to bid for his services, however. He's going to get some crazy offers.

 

[Icebreakers]

If this was discussed earlier in the thread, I apologize but when was the last time a 100+ player was an UFA?

The way teams spend day one of free agency, it is an unrealistic expectation that Gaudreau might end up being the highest paid player in hockey?

He's only four points behind McDavid/ Huberdeau for the league lead.

It's a contract year but he had a 99 point season in 2018-2019.

Tavares' best season was 86 points prior to signing with the Leafs. He got 11 million. Gaudreau has to be worth more, right?

Gaudreau plus 60 is the highest +/- this century. (It's the highest for a player since the mid-eighties.)

If a player can make a max of 20% of the cap and the cap is 82 million next year, then the max salary per is 16.4 million. That's a lot of real estate above McDavid's 12.5 million.

He might take less to stay in Calgary if he likes it there. He could go to a zero income tax state or something else might influence his decision. I think every team with the cap space to sign him is going to bid for his services, however. He's going to get some crazy offers.

He wont get more than McDavid.

Hes having a career year. It would be different if he was a perennial 100+ point guy and was +50 every year.

As good of a season hes having. He hasnt proved he can take a team to the next level.

Its not just about points. He does deserve as much as Panarin though.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

If this was discussed earlier in the thread, I apologize but when was the last time a 100+ player was an UFA?

The way teams spend day one of free agency, it is an unrealistic expectation that Gaudreau might end up being the highest paid player in hockey?

He's only four points behind McDavid/ Huberdeau for the league lead.

It's a contract year but he had a 99 point season in 2018-2019.

Tavares' best season was 86 points prior to signing with the Leafs. He got 11 million. Gaudreau has to be worth more, right?

Gaudreau plus 60 is the highest +/- this century. (It's the highest for a player since the mid-eighties.)

If a player can make a max of 20% of the cap and the cap is 82 million next year, then the max salary per is 16.4 million. That's a lot of real estate above McDavid's 12.5 million.

He might take less to stay in Calgary if he likes it there. He could go to a zero income tax state or something else might influence his decision. I think every team with the cap space to sign him is going to bid for his services, however. He's going to get some crazy offers.

People around the league have also been saying he’s useless for years. So which is it? The guy wasn’t considered a top 100 player on ESPN last year abd hasn’t been considered a top 50 player on HF for 2 seasons prior to this.

You make him out like he’s a god now that he’s approaching UFA; all we, as Flames fans, have been hearing since he dominated the World Juniours is that he is incredibly overrated

 

[McSuper]

Not to knock Americans but most Americans want to be paid their worth . They don't have the same passion about winning cups as Canadians . Calgary got their work cut out for them . I expect around 20 million for both players give or take a million . I am sure Calgary would move mountains to keep their core intact as they are contenders . Oilers are playing really well for a while but Johnny Gaudreau lite us up like a Christmas tree . Flames aren't losing this guy with out a fight and the only team that can pay him/them are bottom feeders

Pros
Flames are contenders
Extra year on contract
They are home grown (they will have some loyalty)
Already settle in the community

Cons
Taxes in Canada
weather
Going to a bottom feeder
Missing out on see my fat ass in the stand

 

[Some Other Flame]

It is rather quant that oilers fans are so much more worried about this than any Flames fan

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

If this was discussed earlier in the thread, I apologize but when was the last time a 100+ player was an UFA?

The way teams spend day one of free agency, it is an unrealistic expectation that Gaudreau might end up being the highest paid player in hockey?

He's only four points behind McDavid/ Huberdeau for the league lead.

It's a contract year but he had a 99 point season in 2018-2019.

Tavares' best season was 86 points prior to signing with the Leafs. He got 11 million. Gaudreau has to be worth more, right?

Gaudreau plus 60 is the highest +/- this century. (It's the highest for a player since the mid-eighties.)

If a player can make a max of 20% of the cap and the cap is 82 million next year, then the max salary per is 16.4 million. That's a lot of real estate above McDavid's 12.5 million.

He might take less to stay in Calgary if he likes it there. He could go to a zero income tax state or something else might influence his decision. I think every team with the cap space to sign him is going to bid for his services, however. He's going to get some crazy offers.

16.4 M is absurd, thats just not going to happen for at least a decade.

You have to take into account that league scoring in general has gone up since they changed the goalie equipment sizes before the 18/19 season. Tavares was 16th in scoring and only 9 players had over 90 pints in 17/18 (10paced it with Marchand). Today we currently have 16 players over 90 points and 21 players pacing at least 90 (Barkov, MacKinnon, and Crosby all missed a bunch of games).

Then there is also the fact that Tavares took a 7 year deal with a new team and Gaudreau can sign an 8 year deal. So we should look at total contract pay and not a per year basis, also since players are rarely paid their exact AAV too.

Panarin got an 81.5M deal, Tavares got 77M. Both of these deals were signed before the flat cap too. I would guess he gets something close to Tavares on his next deal. 11M/yr with a new team or 9.5M/yr with Calgary

 

[Olaf Fub]

16.4 M is absurd, thats just not going to happen for at least a decade.

You have to take into account that league scoring in general has gone up since they changed the goalie equipment sizes before the 18/19 season. Tavares was 16th in scoring and only 9 players had over 90 pints in 17/18 (10paced it with Marchand). Today we currently have 16 players over 90 points and 21 players pacing at least 90 (Barkov, MacKinnon, and Crosby all missed a bunch of games).

Then there is also the fact that Tavares took a 7 year deal with a new team and Gaudreau can sign an 8 year deal. So we should look at total contract pay and not a per year basis, also since players are rarely paid their exact AAV too.

Panarin got an 81.5M deal, Tavares got 77M. Both of these deals were signed before the flat cap too. I would guess he gets something close to Tavares on his next deal. 11M/yr with a new team or 9.5M/yr with Calgary

I'm not saying here's going to make 16.4 but I do think it will be north of 12.5.

 

[McDuffz88]

I'm not saying here's going to make 16.4 but I do think it will be north of 12.5.

That would be awful. He's good but not worth that at all.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I'm not saying here's going to make 16.4 but I do think it will be north of 12.5.

I highly doubt that, there is a flat cap and he is a winger. What team is going to offer him 12.5M?

 

[Double Dion]

I'm not saying here's going to make 16.4 but I do think it will be north of 12.5.

I'd bet my house against 1000 bucks he isn't getting North of 12.5. No chance.

The number will be under 12 for sure. O think somewhere between 9 and 11M.

 

[Bank Shot]

16.4 M is absurd, thats just not going to happen for at least a decade.

You have to take into account that league scoring in general has gone up since they changed the goalie equipment sizes before the 18/19 season. Tavares was 16th in scoring and only 9 players had over 90 pints in 17/18 (10paced it with Marchand). Today we currently have 16 players over 90 points and 21 players pacing at least 90 (Barkov, MacKinnon, and Crosby all missed a bunch of games).

Then there is also the fact that Tavares took a 7 year deal with a new team and Gaudreau can sign an 8 year deal. So we should look at total contract pay and not a per year basis, also since players are rarely paid their exact AAV too.

Panarin got an 81.5M deal, Tavares got 77M. Both of these deals were signed before the flat cap too. I would guess he gets something close to Tavares on his next deal. 11M/yr with a new team or 9.5M/yr with Calgary

Why would Gaudreau sign for $9.5 with Calgary? He's going to leave around $10 million on the table just for fun?

 

[apocalypse]

I don't know, but we'll take Gaudreau off your hands. Save you the trouble.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Why would Gaudreau sign for $9.5 with Calgary? He's going to leave around $10 million on the table just for fun?

10M? please elaborate. How many teams can offer both contending and pay him over 12M

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Lindholm before Gaudreau. Career high 16 goals 44 points. Now he's a 40+ goal 85+ point player.
Monahan with Gaudreau scored 34 goals and 82 points. Without him and the injuries my guess is 20 goals and 40 points.
Ferland was a 25 goal guy with Gaudreau.
Hudler won a big trophy with Gaudreau and almost doubled his career high in points.
Tkachuk is not a 100 point player away from Gaudreau. He just isn't. One guy deserves 10+ million. The other guy is not a 10 million dollar player.
You can make a very good case Tkachuk is our 4th best forward. He's without question no better than our 3rd best forward.

All of this doesn't matter Tkachuk put up 100 points in a contract year and he's basically already told the world he's going to hold out because it's the Tkachuk way
deserves 10m or not he's going to get atleast 10 now
I hope I'm wrong and he comes in as cheap as possible on a 8 year deal just can't see it happening

 

[Arthur Morgan]

If this was discussed earlier in the thread, I apologize but when was the last time a 100+ player was an UFA?

The way teams spend day one of free agency, it is an unrealistic expectation that Gaudreau might end up being the highest paid player in hockey?

He's only four points behind McDavid/ Huberdeau for the league lead.

It's a contract year but he had a 99 point season in 2018-2019.

Tavares' best season was 86 points prior to signing with the Leafs. He got 11 million. Gaudreau has to be worth more, right?

Gaudreau plus 60 is the highest +/- this century. (It's the highest for a player since the mid-eighties.)

If a player can make a max of 20% of the cap and the cap is 82 million next year, then the max salary per is 16.4 million. That's a lot of real estate above McDavid's 12.5 million.

He might take less to stay in Calgary if he likes it there. He could go to a zero income tax state or something else might influence his decision. I think every team with the cap space to sign him is going to bid for his services, however. He's going to get some crazy offers.

as a UFA I think it's safe to assume that but I wonder if the flatcap effects anything. back when Tavares signed the cap was rising a healthy amount every season but for the past what 3 now we have only gotten like 1m rise

 

[ManofSteel55]

10M? please elaborate. How many teams can offer both contending and pay him over 12M

UFAs don't always rule out non-contenders. A 10M deal would be hard to turn down from any team.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

UFAs don't always rule out non-contenders. A 10M deal would be hard to turn down from any team.

A 10M deal somewhere else is quite a lot less money than 9.5M in Calgary

 

[ManofSteel55]

A 10M deal somewhere else is quite a lot less money than 9.5M in Calgary

Only if both teams offer max term.

Philly is stupid, desperate and has cash to burn. I wouldn't be shocked if they offer him 11M x 7 years. Does Calgary offer him 10Mx8 to beat it? Does JG take a team friendly deal on his last contract or does he cash out knowing that it's his last deal?