Calgary city council approves arena deal (UPD: new deal upcoming?)

[BKIslandersFan]

I never had a chance.

A market that draws 18 000 fans at a good price point makes a lot of sense, no matter how you dice it. If you think in context that Winnipeg brings in more gate receipts than a franchise like Nashville or Carolina, in a normal year, because of the cost of being the prime ticket in town, add 3 000 fans to Winnipeg's revenue and subtact around $10 for the avg. Wpg ticket (conceivably lower, probably closer to Alberta teams), that's the potential for more revenue than those markets, as a marker. It's not the top end, which the NHL doesn't want to drive up disparity, it's a market that fits the middle to bottom end of the spectre, in being profitable enough to not rely on revenue sharing.

That's a win for the NHL, and the Nordiques-Canadiens rivalry is a win for hockey in Quebec, a province that might get you well over a million viewers for a game, which is bigger than most if not all US matchups. So there a lot of sense in locating there, that's hard to argue.

You say it makes a lot of sense. But apparently the league doesn’t believe that.

and I incline to believe billionaires know how to make money better.

 

[voyageur]

You say it makes a lot of sense. But apparently the league doesn’t believe that.

and I incline to believe billionaires know how to make money better.

Why do you think the league doesn't believe it? From what Gary Bettman has said Quebec is a franchise that the NHL is considering. The NHL went to Vegas and Seattle as expansion teams because those were two better markets that fit a geographic and corporate target for the NHL But now if someone is looking to sell I think Quebec is a prime target, and would be able to put up a hockey management team, and fan drive, quickly. Which would bring more revenues to the league, and the league is focused on revenues right now.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Why do you think the league doesn't believe it? From what Gary Bettman has said Quebec is a franchise that the NHL is considering. The NHL went to Vegas and Seattle as expansion teams because those were two better markets that fit a geographic and corporate target for the NHL But now if someone is looking to sell I think Quebec is a prime target, and would be able to put up a hockey management team, and fan drive, quickly. Which would bring more revenues to the league, and the league is focused on revenues right now.

Because they don’t have a team. They could have relocated Coyotes there years ago. They didn’t.

 

[voyageur]

Because they don’t have a team.

Well be patient and they will.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Well be patient and they will.

I wouldn’t get my hopes up if I were you.

 

[voyageur]

I wouldn’t get my hopes up if I were you.

I wouldn't say I told you so if I were you.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

I wouldn't say I told you so if I were you.

Not sure how you believe this comparing how much effort they put in to giving Seattle a team vs putting QC expansion bid on deferral.

although if Coyotes bid for new arena fails and Fertita says no its likely in all fairness.

 

[joelef]

No the Quebec ownership didn’t want to pay the 600 million expansion fee simple as that

 

[Melrose Munch]

No the Quebec ownership didn’t want to pay the 600 million expansion fee simple as that

Why do you think the league doesn't believe it? From what Gary Bettman has said Quebec is a franchise that the NHL is considering. The NHL went to Vegas and Seattle as expansion teams because those were two better markets that fit a geographic and corporate target for the NHL But now if someone is looking to sell I think Quebec is a prime target, and would be able to put up a hockey management team, and fan drive, quickly. Which would bring more revenues to the league, and the league is focused on revenues right now.

This is the key @voyageur. QC needed to pay that fee. They probably can now, but it will cost more.

 

[voyageur]

If Forbes is remotely closely in estimates, the Arizona Coyotes are worth less than an expansion team. Do you think Murelllo would take $500 000 000 for the Yotes? I mean $300 million at least is debt, so that's still a profit. And if $100 million of that debt is to the NHL, that's an extra $100 million for the NHL.

I think Eugene Melnyk will face the same dilemna down the road.

I don't think that a new market is worth $600 million. Vegas and Seattle set the threshhold for the NHL and it was important to get there before the new TV deal, because those markets represent good revenue potential. Pittsburgh's deal was a big one for revenues this year.

10 1/2 years ago the value of a relocated franchise was $110 million plus $60 million in transfer fees. The value of the Jets now according to Forbes is $575 million. Though Covid certainly deflates that value, I would think.

My rough guess of what a bottom end franchise is worth to the NHL right now is $500 000 000 US. Maybe turns out to be $650 000 000 CDN with indemnity to Toronto/Montreal/Bell, which buys a vote or two. But that's not insider information, more economic theory.

 

[StreetHawk]

Teams are each worth a certain amount based on their market.

I don’t think a team in KC is worth as much as a team in Seattle for example.

 

[sh724]

If Forbes is remotely closely in estimates, the Arizona Coyotes are worth less than an expansion team. Do you think Murelllo would take $500 000 000 for the Yotes? I mean $300 million at least is debt, so that's still a profit. And if $100 million of that debt is to the NHL, that's an extra $100 million for the NHL.

I think Eugene Melnyk will face the same dilemna down the road.

I don't think that a new market is worth $600 million. Vegas and Seattle set the threshhold for the NHL and it was important to get there before the new TV deal, because those markets represent good revenue potential. Pittsburgh's deal was a big one for revenues this year.

10 1/2 years ago the value of a relocated franchise was $110 million plus $60 million in transfer fees. The value of the Jets now according to Forbes is $575 million. Though Covid certainly deflates that value, I would think.

My rough guess of what a bottom end franchise is worth to the NHL right now is $500 000 000 US. Maybe turns out to be $650 000 000 CDN with indemnity to Toronto/Montreal/Bell, which buys a vote or two. But that's not insider information, more economic theory.

Forbes doesnt have any actual financial information, their values are just estimates and should be taken with a grain of salt. Look at how much the Penguins just sold for compared to the Forbes value.

The NHL can basically force Quebec, or anyone else, to pay whatever price the NHL wants them to pay in the form of relocation fees. Based on todays values $500MM US is $637MM CAN. That leaves fees of only $10.2MM US. There is no way it would only be $650MM CAN.

On top of that the NHL is not likely to undercut the value of their teams by having one sold for substantially less than what Seattle just paid.

 

[Pandemonia]

Forbes doesnt have any actual financial information, their values are just estimates and should be taken with a grain of salt. Look at how much the Penguins just sold for compared to the Forbes value.

The NHL can basically force Quebec, or anyone else, to pay whatever price the NHL wants them to pay in the form of relocation fees. Based on todays values $500MM US is $637MM CAN. That leaves fees of only $10.2MM US. There is no way it would only be $650MM CAN.

On top of that the NHL is not likely to undercut the value of their teams by having one sold for substantially less than what Seattle just paid.

I think what the NHL is likely or not likely to do will depend upon what circumstances arise and how desperate the league's position becomes.

If you're crawling through the desert and dying of thirst, when someone offers you a bottle of water you don't decline it because it's carbonated.

 

[voyageur]

Forbes doesnt have any actual financial information, their values are just estimates and should be taken with a grain of salt. Look at how much the Penguins just sold for compared to the Forbes value.

The NHL can basically force Quebec, or anyone else, to pay whatever price the NHL wants them to pay in the form of relocation fees. Based on todays values $500MM US is $637MM CAN. That leaves fees of only $10.2MM US. There is no way it would only be $650MM CAN.

On top of that the NHL is not likely to undercut the value of their teams by having one sold for substantially less than what Seattle just paid.

I don't think any other new market right now goes for $650 million US. $650 million CDN maybe. $700 million CDN is probably the max, at this time. That's about what the Jets are worth, according to estimates. Pertaining to Calgary and their situation, the listed value is $680 million US. Do you think anyone would pay that right now, definitely not if relocation is being discussed. Fenway's bid was important in building the NHL brand up. I think that secures Pittsburgh as a franchise, in a way that Mario couldn't. I see Pittsburgh being on the same level as the Isles, and Caps so the current value in dollars for me make some sense.

I think that $650 million number would surely scare off any investors looking at a new market. I still believe Vegas and Seattle represent the threshhold of new markets. The Coyotes sold for $400 million 3 years ago, that was, according to Forbes, $300 million of debt and financing 3 years worth of incurring debt. Essentially debt relief. What do you think the Coyotes would sell for, if they stayed in Arizona? A new arena for sure boosts that value, but without it I would say $500 million is still an appreciation on the franchise, directly linked to the brand power Seattle and Vegas brought in.

I think you will see the smaller market Canadian teams (Calgary, Winnipeg, Ottawa) in the bottom 7 in a matter of time. Two of those markets probably need new arenas for owners to profit, so their stability is somewhat tenous.

 

[Mightygoose]

Arena deal officially terminated after key date to proceed (December 31) passed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6302872

Question now, where do the Flames go from here and how does the league look at this? There's been nothing from Bettman on this. How do they feel of losing around 300 million of public funds over the difference of a rounding error

Or do they lick their wounds and look at a new plan post Covid?

 

[Digital Kid]

Calgary has a very left wing Council and even more left wing mayor. This thing is dead for at least four years until the next election.

 

[ForsbergForever]

Calgary has a very left wing Council and even more left wing mayor. This thing is dead for at least four years until the next election.

Are the Flames even financially viable playing at the Saddledome for possibly another 8 years?

 

[Digital Kid]

Are the Flames even financially viable playing at the Saddledome for possibly another 8 years?

The 18,000 seats and all the luxury suites won't suddenly disappear. My worry is more that with the economic pounding this city has taken in the past five years that less and less people will go to the games. The Flames might have decided that with a poorer city overall that the tipping point between something new and 'it won't pay for itself anymore' was finally reached.

 

[voyageur]

The 18,000 seats and all the luxury suites won't suddenly disappear. My worry is more that with the economic pounding this city has taken in the past five years that less and less people will go to the games. The Flames might have decided that with a poorer city overall that the tipping point between something new and 'it won't pay for itself anymore' was finally reached.

I think with the value of construction materials inflating, this arena had cost overruns written all over it...

As long as Liberals are in power, supported by BQ, money will go from Alberta to Quebec, so it's not the prime political or economic climate for the Flames.

Outside of Quebec City, I think there are only 3 markets that would be on the NHL radar at this time: Houston, Portland, and Kansas City.

If someone in Portland ever inquired about the Flames, I'd be worried. But that would probably take Jody Allen selling her assets first.

Otherwise I think things are good enough for awhile. At least until the end of the Rogers TV deal. For both Calgary and Winnipeg.

 

[Mike Jones]

Arena deal officially terminated after key date to proceed (December 31) passed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6302872

Question now, where do the Flames go from here and how does the league look at this? There's been nothing from Bettman on this. How do they feel of losing around 300 million of public funds over the difference of a rounding error

Or do they lick their wounds and look at a new plan post Covid?

Where do they go? If they want to stay in Calgary they need to follow Vancouver and Seattle's lead and build, own and maintain their own arena. If this bunch can't find an extra $300 million in private funding they have no business being in business.

If this is such a wonderful project there should be hundreds of people lining up to buy in.

 

[Mike Jones]

Calgary has a very left wing Council and even more left wing mayor. This thing is dead for at least four years until the next election.

Mayor Gondek was one of the Flames bootlickers on the previous council who voted for the arena deal. Factor that into your voting decision.

 

[cutchemist42]

Arena deal officially terminated after key date to proceed (December 31) passed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6302872

Question now, where do the Flames go from here and how does the league look at this? There's been nothing from Bettman on this. How do they feel of losing around 300 million of public funds over the difference of a rounding error

Or do they lick their wounds and look at a new plan post Covid?

Just embarrasing on Flames ownership. The guy is already a well known tax Dodger so I'm fully on Calgary's side here.

 

[TheCrease]

The Flames are way more loved in the city compared to the current calgary government. I say stand your ground.

 

[SkalbaniasGhost]

Are the Flames even financially viable playing at the Saddledome for possibly another 8 years?

The Flames just signed a new broadcast agreement with Rogers.It's probably in the 30-40 million range to start with an escalator through the years.Ottawa is getting close to that now .They have some time to figure this out.

 

[CorbeauNoir]

As long as Liberals are in power, supported by BQ, money will go from Alberta to Quebec

That's been the case for half a century regardless of what party is being supported by what party.