C Will Smith - Boston College, NCAA (2023, 4th, SJS)

[keppel146]

Flat out false but ok.

Ive watched Carlsson in Orebro at at the Hlinka since 2021. I’ve also watched close to 20 NTDP games and the WJC U18s this year.

Skating? About equal
Shot? Carlsson by a mile
Pass? Carlsson by a little bit
Hockey IQ? Carlsson by a mile

This is the difference between a prospect that would go 1st in average years and in the debate in strong years (Carlsson) and a guy that would be 4th in bad years. (Smith)

I respectfully disagree regarding the “shot-Carlsson by a mile” statement

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I respectfully disagree regarding the “shot-Carlsson by a mile” statement

How about a kilometer instead?

Carlsson can wire it any way you want. one timer? He's got it. Backhand? It's pretty good. Wrist shot? In close it's great but could use more mustard from mid range. Smith has a good wrist shot but it's far from elite. I don't rank it in the top 10 in this draft. Carlsson's shot is.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I respectfully disagree regarding the “shot-Carlsson by a mile” statement

Don’t bother, that poster won’t hear anything against Carlsson.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Don’t bother, that poster won’t hear anything against Carlsson.

Let's hear his Carlsson>Bedard comparison.

 

[Bombshell11]

Let's hear his Carlsson>Bedard comparison.

5.5 inchs taller, stick handles like a 5.10, proved he can perform against men

 

[CBJx614]

I love how the Carlsson thread is a conversation about will Smith and the will Smith thread is a conversation about Carlsson

 

[sigx15]

I love how the Carlsson thread is a conversation about will Smith and the will Smith thread is a conversation about Carlsson

such is life on hfboards. The only thing missing is a CHL vs. NCAA debate

 

[Boxscore]

I respectfully disagree regarding the “shot-Carlsson by a mile” statement

Agreed. I take Carlsson over Smith and sleep easy at night. But Smith has a high-end shot and Carlsson's shot is the least impressive arrow in his quiver, mainly because he chooses not to use it enough. Carlsson is big, strong, silky smooth, and cerebral, but his game is past-first like many other unselfish Swedes before him.

That said, Carlsson does have a nice shot, and a wonderful arsenal as well, when he uses it. I'd like to see him shoot more, but I wholeheartedly disagree with the scouts who insist Carlsson's shot is what will hold him back from being an elite NHL scorer. His shot is just fine but he's not a gunslinger like Patrik Laine or Auston Matthews.

The other aspects of Carlsson's game are filthy. And let's not forget he was competing at a higher level than kids like Smith and against bigger, stronger, seasoned professionals. I really see Carlsson as a blend of Kopitar, Barkov, and Backstrom (with a more slippery style) and feel he'll be an extraordinary NHL player.

Let's hear his Carlsson>Bedard comparison.

Taller and heavier, that's about it. Bedard is a generational talent who will likely be scoring 130 points in the NHL soon. Comparing any player in the draft to Bedard, even Michkov, is doing them a huge disservice.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Agreed. I take Carlsson over Smith and sleep easy at night. But Smith has a high-end shot and Carlsson's shot is the least impressive arrow in his quiver, mainly because he chooses not to use it enough. Carlsson is big, strong, silky smooth, and cerebral, but his game is past-first like many other unselfish Swedes before him.

That said, Carlsson does have a nice shot, and a wonderful arsenal as well, when he uses it. I'd like to see him shoot more, but I wholeheartedly disagree with the scouts who insist Carlsson's shot is what will hold him back from being an elite NHL scorer. His shot is just fine but he's not a gunslinger like Patrik Laine or Auston Matthews.

The other aspects of Carlsson's game are filthy. And let's not forget he was competing at a higher level than kids like Smith and against bigger, stronger, seasoned professionals. I really see Carlsson as a blend of Kopitar, Barkov, and Backstrom (with a more slippery style) and feel he'll be an extraordinary NHL player.


Taller and heavier, that's about it. Bedard is a generational talent who will likely be scoring 130 points in the NHL soon. Comparing any player in the draft to Bedard, even Michkov, is doing them a huge disservice.

Can we stop with the "playing against men" nonsense?

 

[Bombshell11]

Can we stop with the "playing against men" nonsense?

How is it non sense?
It's a huge edge he's got.

But you know what lets wait and see

 

[ZEBROA]

Can we stop with the "playing against men" nonsense?

Playing against men in the third best league in the world. Gives him a higher floor for now. But who knows, nothing is a sure thing ever, with prospects.

 

[William H Bonney]

Playing against men as a draft eligible does not give a prospect a huge edge or mean they have a higher floor. It's just one variable in a long list of variables to consider when evaluating prospects. And it's a variable often more indicative of circumstance than anything else.

Europeans play in hockey environments where it's not uncommon for the top draft eligible prospects to be in men's leagues because their development programs and leagues are set up that way. Nothing more, nothing less. If the North American development programs and leagues were set up that way, it would similarly not be uncommon for the top draft eligible American and Canadian prospects to be in men's leagues.

 

[ZEBROA]

Playing against men as a draft eligible does not give a prospect a huge edge or mean they have a higher floor. It's just one variable in a long list of variables to consider when evaluating prospects. And it's a variable often more indicative of circumstance than anything else.

Europeans play in hockey environments where it's not uncommon for the top draft eligible prospects to be in men's leagues because their development programs and leagues are set up that way. Nothing more, nothing less. If the North American development programs and leagues were set up that way, it would similarly not be uncommon for the top draft eligible American and Canadian prospects to be in men's leagues.

In SHL they dont hand out full time spots on the team for development, they play the players that are the best they can get. The development is a bonus for NHL, not the SHL teams purpose.

If the North American development programs and leagues were set up that way, we dont know how Will would handle it. But we know Calsson can handle it, in SHL at least.

If you know that one player can handle playing against men(and in the playoffs). And if they are around the same place in the draft. The floor should be a bit higher even if there are other factors that are of a lot more value .

 

[William H Bonney]

In SHL they dont hand out full time spots on the team for development, they play the players that are the best they can get. The development is a bonus for NHL, not the SHL teams purpose.

If the North American development programs and leagues were set up that way, we dont know how Will would handle it. But we know Calsson can handle it, in SHL at least.

If you know that one player can handle playing against men(and in the playoffs). And if they are around the same place in the draft. The floor should be a bit higher even if there are other factors that are of a lot more value .

I did not say the European professional leagues hand out spots to draft eligibles. The difference is the option exists for the European prospects and it's not uncommon for the pro teams to have draft eligibles in their lineups. It's not even an option for North American players. Just because you don't know how they'd handle it doesn't mean they won't handle it fine or better than Carlsson. Or that Carlsson might handle it better now but won't in a couple of years.

Yes, you have a small sample size of how Carlsson looks against men. You don't have any sample size on how he looks against men in the NHL. A small sample size doesn't mean he has a higher floor. That's not how floors work. Or player development.

This blanket statement approach is a hackneyed argument that comes up with every European draft eligible who played in a pro league and it rarely holds any weight. It's a tired angle devoid of much relevance.

I say all of this as someone who'd prefer Smith goes to the Sharks anyway.

 

[ZEBROA]

I did not say the European professional leagues hand out spots to draft eligibles. The difference is the option exists for the European prospects and it's not uncommon for the pro teams to have draft eligibles in their lineups. It's not even an option for North American players. Just because you don't know how they'd handle it doesn't mean they won't handle it fine or better than Carlsson. Or that Carlsson might handle it better now but won't in a couple of years.

Yes, you have a small sample size of how Carlsson looks against men. You don't have any sample size on how he looks against men in the NHL. A small sample size doesn't mean he has a higher floor. That's not how floors work. Or player development.

This blanket statement approach is a hackneyed argument that comes up with every European draft eligible who played in a pro league and it rarely holds any weight. It's a tired angle devoid of much relevance.

I say all of this as someone who'd prefer Smith goes to the Sharks anyway.

First it is not a small sample size, second u are able to compare how other euro players that are in the NHL now has managed in SHL at the same age. That is not someting to write off as nothing.

Like u said it is not even a option for North american players, thus more questionmarks. Even if i think no one in this top ten will have any problems reachin NHL in some way. In Wills and Leos case it is no data against some data, thats all.

Some players can dominate against its peers but suck against men, that is also a reason to be a tad more carefull.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Will Smith making a name for himself in NHL draft class Mark Masters | TSN

U.S. National Team Development Program centre talks to TSN’s Mark Masters about his rise and contemplates a potential reunion with former coach and current Canadiens GM Kent Hughes.

www.tsn.ca

 

[William H Bonney]

First it is not a small sample size, second u are able to compare how other euro players that are in the NHL now has managed in SHL at the same age. That is not someting to write off as nothing.

Like u said it is not even a option for North american players, thus more questionmarks. Even if i think no one in this top ten will have any problems reachin NHL in some way. In Wills and Leos case it is no data against some data, thats all.

Some players can dominate against its peers but suck against men, that is also a reason to be a tad more carefull.

Yeah, you can compare how this "but he's played against men" argument has fallen flat over and over again. Just because X player did Y thing doesn't mean that's the reason in hindsight they did or did not deserve to go above another player. You can't deduce correlation and causation that casually.

No, in both of their cases, there's no data from the relevant league they want to be in. The SHL is not close to the NHL in terms of quality, style, etc. They're not apples to apples.

And some people can look promising in inferior men's leagues and then fail in the NHL because the quality is far higher and the style different. There is transferable risk in both cases and in the end, there are endless variables at play and those variables are never the same for each prospect.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Yeah, you can compare how this "but he's played against men" argument has fallen flat over and over again. Just because X player did Y thing doesn't mean that's the reason in hindsight they did or did not deserve to go above another player. You can't deduce correlation and causation that casually.

No, in both of their cases, there's no data from the relevant league they want to be in. The SHL is not close to the NHL in terms of quality, style, etc. They're not apples to apples.

And some people can look promising in inferior men's leagues and then fail in the NHL because the quality is far higher and the style different. There is transferable risk in both cases and in the end, there are endless variables at play and those variables are never the same for each prospect.

Kaapo Kakko remembers!

 

[William H Bonney]

Kaapo Kakko remembers!

How dare you. He's clearly better than Hughes. Remember, he played against men!

 

[ZEBROA]

Yeah, you can compare how this "but he's played against men" argument has fallen flat over and over again. Just because X player did Y thing doesn't mean that's the reason in hindsight they did or did not deserve to go above another player. You can't deduce correlation and causation that casually.

No, in both of their cases, there's no data from the relevant league they want to be in. The SHL is not close to the NHL in terms of quality, style, etc. They're not apples to apples.

And some people can look promising in inferior men's leagues and then fail in the NHL because the quality is far higher and the style different. There is transferable risk in both cases and in the end, there are endless variables at play and those variables are never the same for each prospect.

SHL is way better then the league Will played in so we dont even know if he could play in SHL. We know Carlsson can. SHL is closer to AHL not in style but in challange. A big player that can move,with high hockey iq, should translate well to the AHL style. Some smaller or not so agile players dont always translate well to AHL.

We could put it in another way. If Carlsson did not play good at all in SHL, he would slide in the rankings. So it do matter. If he only played in u20 he might be ranked lower too. And if Will had the chance to play in AHL and play ok, he would be ranked higher. Even if they were equally skilled.

Edit: so it is not the men thing it is the league that happens to have grown(more or less) men in it.

Lets agree to dissagree.

 

[William H Bonney]

SHL is way better then the league Will played in so we dont even know if he could play in SHL. We know Carlsson can. SHL is closer to AHL not in style but in challange. A big player that can move,with high hockey iq, should translate well to the AHL style. Some smaller or not so agile players dont always translate well to AHL.

We could put it in another way. If Carlsson did not play good at all in SHL, he would slide in the rankings. So it do matter. If he only played in u20 he might be ranked lower too. And if Will had the chance to play in AHL and play ok, he would be ranked higher. Even if they were equally skilled.

Edit: so it is not the men thing it is the league that happens to have grown(more or less) men in it.

Lets agree to dissagree.

Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.

And even if Smith couldn't have played in the SHL already it's not damning. The NHL draft is largely about projection. While scouts will appreciate being able to evaluate a player's game and skillet against a higher level of competition, they're bad scouts if they're not basing their opinions on trying to project how the player's game and skill will transfer to the NHL. They don't care at all about projecting how he'd do in the AHL.

There is no evidence if Carlsson only played U20 or only played to a certain level in the SHL that he wouldn't be rated where he is. It would be an entirely different evaluation process. You're just assuming it would hurt his ranking to reinforce your opinion.

 

[King Makar19]

Im not a big Smith fan.

Avg skating. Bad defensively.

Will produce pts when games are easy.

 

[ZEBROA]

Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.

And even if Smith couldn't have played in the SHL already it's not damning. The NHL draft is largely about projection. While scouts will appreciate being able to evaluate a player's game and skillet against a higher level of competition, they're bad scouts if they're not basing their opinions on trying to project how the player's game and skill will transfer to the NHL. They don't care at all about projecting how he'd do in the AHL.

There is no evidence if Carlsson only played U20 or only played to a certain level in the SHL that he wouldn't be rated where he is. It would be an entirely different evaluation process. You're just assuming it would hurt his ranking to reinforce your opinion.

Jepp i am assuming Carlsson or Smith getting the chance, but not being able to play in SHL at all, would hurt their ratings vs being able to play realy good in SHL. Because it would. And yes a scout should be able to evaluate a player no matter were he play, it is just harder to do in some cases.

 

[William H Bonney]

Jepp i am assuming Carlsson or Smith getting the chance, but not being able to play in SHL at all, would hurt their ratings vs being able to play realy good in SHL. Because it would. And yes a scout should be able to evaluate a player no matter were he play, it is just harder to do in some cases.

You don't know that it would. It would just change their evaluation calculus. Some scouts have Smith rated above Carlsson even though he played in a junior league. Doesn't seem to be hurting his ratings.

 

[DinosaurBones]

What an unreal Carlsson thread. I mean. Smith thread? Combine them? Geez