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C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

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NotProkofievian said:
While his engagement has improved to an adequate NHL level, I wouldn't expect a real breakout until he takes a lot more shots.
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Totally agree.

He now has 29 points in 52 games. .558 ppg.

He absolutely needs to shoot the puck more. a lot more.
He's only taken 52 shots on net, in 52 games.
avg 1 shot per game.
his S% is currently over 21%, which likely isn't sustainable...
he's going to have to increase his shot output just to keep this current pace.
 
Breakfast of Champs said:
Yeah he's 21, I meant he absolutely has 1C upside and those who labelled him a 2C at best were completely out to lunch


He's absolutely tracking to be a 1C
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What legit 1Cs were unable to exceed 1 shot per game in their D+3 season?

I’m sure you can find a few, but it’s well outside the norm. Looking at NHL Network’s top 20 centers, Hintz (who wasn’t in the NHL) is the only guy who failed to do so. JT Miller and Robert Thomas were only a little over 1 shot per game, but everybody else was very close to or above 2 in their D+3.

The lack of shot volume is Wright’s biggest red flag but you could probably repeat this exercise with any metric. Legit 1Cs usually show way more at his age than he has so far.
 
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We can debate all day what a “legit #1C” is to convolute this discussion even further. Considering there are certainly not 32 of them by most people’s standards and JTM, Hintz, and Thomas are arguably 3 of the top 15 centers in the league - I’m not sure pointing those 3 out as exceptions and saying “see there’s virtually no chance Wright can be a 1C because his shot totals at age 20 in bottom six minutes are so low” is quite the mathematical oddity or ceiling cap it’s being made out to be. Miller scored 3 goals in 30 games at Wright’s age so this is certainly not some bulletproof methodology here.

He’s looking like a very solid #4 overall pick who is trending in the right direction after a bit of stutter in a not unusual non-linear development path. Whether that leads to “true #1 C level” by any random person’s definition or he tops out as a really effective 2C or just generally good “top six center” certainly yet to be discovered.

But as a skeptic of his, I’ve been pretty impressed. Not like “blown away”…but he’s looking better and better.
 
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BKarchitect said:
We can debate all day what a “legit #1C” is to convolute this discussion even further. Considering there are certainly not 32 of them by most people’s standards and JTM, Hintz, and Thomas are arguably 3 of the top 15 centers in the league - I’m not sure pointing those 3 out as exceptions and saying “see there’s virtually no chance Wright can be a 1C because his shot totals at age 20 in bottom six minutes are so low” is quite the mathematical oddity or ceiling cap it’s being made out to be. Miller scored 3 goals in 30 games at Wright’s age so this is certainly not some bulletproof methodology here.

He’s looking like a very solid #4 overall pick who is trending in the right direction after a bit of stutter in a not unusual non-linear development path. Whether that leads to “true #1 C level” by any random person’s definition or he tops out as a really effective 2C or just generally good “top six center” certainly yet to be discovered.

But as a skeptic of his, I’ve been pretty impressed. Not like “blown away”…but he’s looking better and better.
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Nowhere did I say he has virtually no chance of it, but I am pushing back on the statement that he is "absolutely tracking" to achieve it.

Using any reasonable definition of #1C - even if it is just "one of the top 32 centers in the league" - you will find that Wright has done substantially less than most of them had done at the same point in their careers across pretty much every metric.
 
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JoeThorntonsRooster said:
Nowhere did I say he has virtually no chance of it, but I am pushing back on the statement that he is "absolutely tracking" to achieve it.

Using any reasonable definition of #1C - even if it is just "one of the top 32 centers in the league" - you will find that Wright has done substantially less than most of them had done at the same point in their careers across pretty much every metric.
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I think he should be as good as Kadri, Elias Lindholm type centers if he hits middle ground for his potential

Both were very solid 2Cs with a few 1C like years in there.

Playstyle is ofcourse different than both but a 45-50 pt C as a D+3 player shows promise for a long career of getting 60-70 pt player in his prime.

He is suprisingly producing almost as much as Beniers who I thought would be ahead due to larger role + more experience in the NHL level
 
Breakfast of Champs said:
Yeah he's 21, I meant he absolutely has 1C upside and those who labelled him a 2C at best were completely out to lunch
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I don't know about that, seems like they were actually right on with their assessments
Breakfast of Champs said:
He's absolutely tracking to be a 1C
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No he's really not. Dude is riding a 11.7% on ice shooting percentage at 5v5 and 14.4% in all situations and is still scoring at only a 45 point pace.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
I don't know about that, seems like they were actually right on with their assessments

No he's really not. Dude is riding a 12.6% on ice shooting percentage at 5v5 and 14.4% in all situations and is still scoring at only a 45 point pace.
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That’s what happens when you’re third on the depth chart for centers… you don’t get as many minutes.

The two centers ahead of him are shooting at 12.4% and 18.2% in Berniers and Stephenson respectively.

Also I don’t know where you got 14.4% from? Hockeyreference has it at 21.2% for Wright average 13:32 minutes per game.

He’s also only 1 point behind Berniers this season.

Seems to me it’s utilization that’s the problem and not a him problem.
 
OilersFanatics505 said:
That’s what happens when you’re third on the depth chart for centers… you don’t get as many minutes.

The two centers ahead of him are shooting at 12.4% and 18.2% in Berniers and Stephenson respectively.

Also I don’t know where you got 14.4% from? Hockeyreference has it at 21.2% for Wright average 13:32 minutes per game.

He’s also only 1 point behind Berniers this season.

Seems to me it’s utilization that’s the problem and not a him problem.
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It's his on ice shooting percentage, not his individual shooting percentage. 14.4% in all situations is really not sustainable.
 
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Too early to give up on the guy but he is looking like a Ryan Hopkins type player

But I do remember some posters going nuts as he dropped in the draft
 
OilersFanatics505 said:
So you’re completely ignoring the Powerplay goals?
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It's better to look at them separately for on ice shooting percentage. You don't ignore them but they can't be lumped into the same stat.

archangel2 said:
Too early to give up on the guy but he is looking like a Ryan Hopkins type player
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It took me a while to figure out who you were talking about.

There are some similarities between Nuge and Wright - skilled centers that are not aggressive or puck dominant. I'd like if Wright can show the versatility that Nuge has shown over the years, Nuge was a lot more mature at that age. But I also think Wright might be a perennial 30-40 goal guy even if he isn't driving a lot of shot volume, his shot is just that good.

That was my take in his draft year even when he was driving me nuts - he looked like he'd be a 2C - but a guy who would rack up the goals regardless if he was with a strong puck carrier. A prime Monahan - Gaudreau type of thing. Monahan also doesn't hold pucks for long.
 
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