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Prospect Info: C/RW Matthew Savoie, 9th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft - Traded to Moose Jaw 1/4/24

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This shift video set my mind at ease about Savoie. It shows a lot of what I thought was missing from some of the other highlight videos of just his scoring plays.

Lots of slick zone exits and entries, carrying the puck with speed through the neutral zone, dogged puck pursuit, anticipation, great vision. Really exciting.

Interesting that a lot if this just didn't result in the scoring plays that end up in the highlight videos, but good to see he's doing it, at least in this game.
 
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DemsIsGirglingSounds said:


This shift video set my mind at ease about Savoie. It shows a lot of what I thought was missing from some of the other highlight videos of just his scoring plays.

Lots of slick zone exits and entries, carrying the puck with speed through the neutral zone, dogged puck pursuit, anticipation, great vision. Really exciting.

Interesting that a lot if this just didn't result in the scoring plays that end up in the highlight videos, but good to see he's doing it, at least in this game.
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I think @Chainshot and I might have had a quick back and forth a few weeks ago about how his play didn't always result in production. The cynical side would say there could be more flash than substance, the positive side would probably be that he plays with a speed that his teammates lack, and that teammates with NHL brains will be a huge benefit to him.

Regarding the PP production, I did a little digging. While I think his even strength production was lower than other top 10 picks, looking at successful NHLers, the actual junior 5v5 production is a mixed bag.

From what I can tell (barring some excel errors) there were 40 forwards drafted between 07 and 17 from the OHL/WHL with career pts/game over .6, and 100 games played. Arbitrary benchmark but its about 50 points. Since its career average and counts early/late parts of the career, most guys that qualify scored well over 50 in multiple seasons.

Of these 40 guys, 24 scored less than savoie at 5v5, 16 scored more. Only 4 of the 11 players under 6 ft' scored more than savoie. With that said, I think some of this is due to team strength. Point, Barzal, Eberle, all scored less, but had less support.

Looking at it in a different light, checking out top 15 picks specifically, it does seem like there's an advantage to scoring more. Guys who scored more than savoie, hit at a higher rate than those scoring less (54% vs 35%). But, an interesting note is that the smaller players faired a lot better. Probably a combo on the production being less a product of their size, and teams feeling really good about a small player to draft them high.

At the end of the day, I think I'd feel better had he scored more, but don't see it as a hard limitation or red flag.
 
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jc17 said:
I think @Chainshot and I might have had a quick back and forth a few weeks ago about how his play didn't always result in production. The cynical side would say there could be more flash than substance, the positive side would probably be that he plays with a speed that his teammates lack, and that teammates with NHL brains will be a huge benefit to him.

Regarding the PP production, I did a little digging. While I think his even strength production was lower than other top 10 picks, looking at successful NHLers, the actual junior 5v5 production is a mixed bag.

From what I can tell (barring some excel errors) there were 40 forwards drafted between 07 and 17 from the OHL/WHL with career pts/game over .6, and 100 games played. Arbitrary benchmark but its about 50 points. Since its career average and counts early/late parts of the career, most guys that qualify scored well over 50 in multiple seasons.

Of these 40 guys, 24 scored less than savoie at 5v5, 16 scored more. Only 4 of the 11 players under 6 ft' scored more than savoie. With that said, I think some of this is due to team strength. Point, Barzal, Eberle, all scored less, but had less support.

Looking at it in a different light, checking out top 15 picks specifically, it does seem like there's an advantage to scoring more. Guys who scored more than savoie, hit at a higher rate than those scoring less (54% vs 35%). But, an interesting note is that the smaller players faired a lot better. Probably a combo on the production being less a product of their skill, and teams feeling really good about a small player to draft them high.

At the end of the day, I think I'd feel better had he scored more, but don't see it as a hard limitation or red flag.
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Do you know if any of those players had a similar pedigree to savoie(high chl draft status etc...)?
 
jc17 said:
I think @Chainshot and I might have had a quick back and forth a few weeks ago about how his play didn't always result in production. The cynical side would say there could be more flash than substance, the positive side would probably be that he plays with a speed that his teammates lack, and that teammates with NHL brains will be a huge benefit to him.

Regarding the PP production, I did a little digging. While I think his even strength production was lower than other top 10 picks, looking at successful NHLers, the actual junior 5v5 production is a mixed bag.

From what I can tell (barring some excel errors) there were 40 forwards drafted between 07 and 17 from the OHL/WHL with career pts/game over .6, and 100 games played. Arbitrary benchmark but its about 50 points. Since its career average and counts early/late parts of the career, most guys that qualify scored well over 50 in multiple seasons.

Of these 40 guys, 24 scored less than savoie at 5v5, 16 scored more. Only 4 of the 11 players under 6 ft' scored more than savoie. With that said, I think some of this is due to team strength. Point, Barzal, Eberle, all scored less, but had less support.

Looking at it in a different light, checking out top 15 picks specifically, it does seem like there's an advantage to scoring more. Guys who scored more than savoie, hit at a higher rate than those scoring less (54% vs 35%). But, an interesting note is that the smaller players faired a lot better. Probably a combo on the production being less a product of their size, and teams feeling really good about a small player to draft them high.

At the end of the day, I think I'd feel better had he scored more, but don't see it as a hard limitation or red flag.
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How did you factor in the lost year?
 
jc17 said:
I think @Chainshot and I might have had a quick back and forth a few weeks ago about how his play didn't always result in production. The cynical side would say there could be more flash than substance, the positive side would probably be that he plays with a speed that his teammates lack, and that teammates with NHL brains will be a huge benefit to him.

Regarding the PP production, I did a little digging. While I think his even strength production was lower than other top 10 picks, looking at successful NHLers, the actual junior 5v5 production is a mixed bag.

From what I can tell (barring some excel errors) there were 40 forwards drafted between 07 and 17 from the OHL/WHL with career pts/game over .6, and 100 games played. Arbitrary benchmark but its about 50 points. Since its career average and counts early/late parts of the career, most guys that qualify scored well over 50 in multiple seasons.

Of these 40 guys, 24 scored less than savoie at 5v5, 16 scored more. Only 4 of the 11 players under 6 ft' scored more than savoie. With that said, I think some of this is due to team strength. Point, Barzal, Eberle, all scored less, but had less support.

Looking at it in a different light, checking out top 15 picks specifically, it does seem like there's an advantage to scoring more. Guys who scored more than savoie, hit at a higher rate than those scoring less (54% vs 35%). But, an interesting note is that the smaller players faired a lot better. Probably a combo on the production being less a product of their size, and teams feeling really good about a small player to draft them high.

At the end of the day, I think I'd feel better had he scored more, but don't see it as a hard limitation or red flag.
Click to expand...

This is a really disingenuous post.


How do you ignore the pandemic and its impact on Savoie’s junior years? He wasn’t able to play a full junior season until his draft year because of it. He also had to jump to a different junior league (USHL) in his D-1 season. He missed much of that season due to the delay in getting transfer permission. All this in his D-1 season which is frequently the first full year for these guys.

You’re posting the parameters of 100 games for those players and ignoring Savoie doesn't even have 100gms under his belt in any junior league.

Comparing his junior “career numbers” to players who had normal junior careers makes absolutely no sense.
 
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Dirty Dog said:
Also, is there any doubt that the sabres are going to develop him as a center? I don't think they follow the winger projections
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I think they're developing him at wing AND center. :D Granato likes the versatility that provides. There's more possibilties to get your best players on the ice if they can play multiple positions.
 
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joshjull said:
This is really disingenuous post.


How do you ignore the pandemic and its impact on Savoie’s junior years? He wasn’t able to play a full junior season until his draft year because of it. He also had to jump to a different junior league (USHL) in his D-1 season. He missed much of that season due to the delay in getting transfer permission. All this in his D-1 season which is frequently the first full year for these guys.

You’re posting the parameters of 100 games for those players and ignoring Savoie doesn't even have 100gms under his belt in any junior league.

Comparing his junior “career numbers” to players who had normal junior careers in one junior league makes absolutely no sense.
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I think the scouting department likes guys that are just scratching the surface and have apparent room to grow. Might sound like a silly trait to look for in 18 year olds but some guys clearly have room for another gear or two.
 
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joshjull said:
This is really disingenuous post.


How do you ignore the pandemic and its impact on Savoie’s junior years? He wasn’t able to play a full junior season until his draft year because of it. He also had to jump to a different junior league (USHL) in his D-1 season. He missed much of that season due to the delay in getting transfer permission. All this in his D-1 season which is frequently the first full year for these guys.

You’re posting the parameters of 100 games for those players and ignoring Savoie doesn't even have 100gms under his belt in any junior league.

Comparing his junior “career numbers” to players who had normal junior careers in one junior league makes absolutely no sense.
Click to expand...
Re-reading the post, I see the confusion. I wasn't talking about junior career production. Hopefully this adjustment clarifies:

From what I can tell (barring some excel errors) there were 40 forwards drafted between 07 and 17 from the OHL/WHL that went on to have career NHL pts/game over .6, and 100 games played. Arbitrary benchmark but its about 50 points. Since its career average and counts early/late parts of the career, most guys that qualify scored well over 50 in multiple seasons in the NHL, which I would consider a "successful NHLer"

Of these 40 successful NHLers, 24 scored less than savoie at 5v5 in their draft year, 16 scored more. Only 4 of the 11 players under 6 ft' scored more than savoie. With that said, I think some of this is due to team strength. Point, Barzal, Eberle, all scored less, but had less support.
Click to expand...


I don't know, maybe it's still too wordy. Long story short, some guys who produce well in the NHL scored more than savoie in his DY, while some scored less.
 
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Zman5778 said:
...........................so if some score less and some score more.........what is this really saying?
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Nothing at all, the development of each player individually. Savoie has all the tools to become a first line player at the NHL level, now it's up to development.
 
Zman5778 said:
...........................so if some score less and some score more.........what is this really saying?
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It's saying that his even strength production is about average for a top 15 pick, and that good NHLers don't always score more than he did in juniors . His scoring is not a cause for concern, but he also did not do anything special in terms of production, particularly at 5v5.

A question about his production was asked, and I figured I would try to provide some objective context.

I'm sorry it wasn't an exciting answer. I'm sure many figured this was the case. But when people start having debates on what is good, or not good, production, without citing any real numbers, I like to at least try to get a firmer answer, instead of guesswork.


Chainshot said:
It's not a comparison of contemporary players but part of projection used by actual scouts. If you want to know that question, feel free to dig up a primary point source for junior or European leagues that hasn't had its webmaster hired on to an NHL team as I would love to have a new source for that data without having to dig through it manually.
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Missed this before, but pick224.com has a bunch.
 
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Did I read that people expect him to grow fro 5'9" -> 5'11"? While that does happen, it would be medically unusual for someone who's 18.5 to grow 2 more inches.
 
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