C Quinton Byfield (2020, 2nd, LAK) part IV

[MBH]

I always expected Byfield to play AT LEAST one more year of junior, if not too.
THis kid was sooo RAW and unpolished. His skill and IQ need development with experience, And he simply didn't get to develop at the right pace. Thrown into the AHL last year before he was ready.
Thrown into the NHL this year before he was ready.

That last game was the best I've seen him play. He looked on top of things.

But I've always said that you're not drafting QB for what he is at 18 or 19 or 20.
But 22? 23? I still think he could be the best player from the draft.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I always expected Byfield to play AT LEAST one more year of junior, if not too.
THis kid was sooo RAW and unpolished. His skill and IQ need development with experience, And he simply didn't get to develop at the right pace. Thrown into the AHL last year before he was ready.
Thrown into the NHL this year before he was ready.

That last game was the best I've seen him play. He looked on top of things.

But I've always said that you're not drafting QB for what he is at 18 or 19 or 20.
But 22? 23? I still think he could be the best player from the draft.

I think the problem with that is the expectation is a #2 overall pick, in particular from the CHL, and especially with size/speed combo Byfield has is he contributes at a high level right away. Maybe that's unreasonable but it's definitely a cause for some of the criticism.

 

[bsu]

Byfield definitely has some growing to do but just comparing stats to other players at the same age is a bit deceiving.

Brady Tkachuk in his 19 year old year had 16:01 ATOI with a total of 153 PP minutes.

Barkov had 17:06 ATOI and 147 PP minutes.

Byfield has 12:04 ATOI and 18 PP minutes.

One could argue that if Byfield played more than 3rd-4th line minutes and got PP time he could possibly put up more points.

Kaliyev is getting around the same ATOI but he’s at 151 TOI on the PP.

I mean you have to earn more than 3rd or 4th line minutes, he has 10 points on the season (and a third of those points are from playing the lowly Ducks).... The Kings are fighting for a playoff spot they are going to play their best players. He also fumbles and bobbles pucks way too much he needs a longer stick, he looks like my grandpa hunched over when he has the puck.

The fact there was an exception this year to allow some players to play in the AHL and the Kings didn't take advantage of that is still mind boggling to me. I don't think he will bust or anything from it but I do think he had a lot to learn and develop. (I felt the same way to a lesser extent with Drysdale on the Ducks) but too late now we'll see what happens.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I think we can leave out the generational talents in Ovechkin and Malkin.

E. Staal put up a modest 31 points at 19 in the NHL--Byfield isn't THAT far off at a 21 point pace and heating up. He then spent the lockout year in the AHL and blew up, as many others in that legendary draft class did, at 21. Most Blues fans will agree that Pietro took a bit to get going, he did next to nothing until age 21 and then really took over at 22-24. Brady tkachuk came out throwing but I'd argue he took it to another level this year at age 22 but has another gear left in him, story's not written yet there. Laine's an interesting one, I think he's an exception in some ways because he doesn't care to round out his all around game, he's a pure shooter that hasn't really developed anything beyond that. Rantanen did next to nothing at 19, went half a PPG at 20 and then really emerged at 21, but he's found another gear again in his mid-20s. @bert covered Barkov, he was going big in his early 20s but he's nuclear in his mid 20s after medicre 19 and 20 year old seasons. I dont' know enough about Trouba's emergence to comment. Assuming you're mentioning Hampus Lindholm--and I'm not sure there's a comparison to be made with the d-men anyway--he really jumped in at 20-21. Ej about the same, 21, 22. Kopitar, of course we're intimately familiar with, was able to score right away, but he absolutely found another gear at 22 and with Terry Murray's development.

I'm sorry but if these are 'counter' examples they're not great ones. The generational talents are just that so of course they burst right in, but the other ones 'contributing' immediately might be generous, and besides that we're not just talking about adjusting and merely playing, but reaching the levels they're capable of. It seems like they start doing stuff at 20-21 like other prospects, really emerge at 22-23, and completely take over at 24+.

That being said I do think Byfield is about a year behind a lot of those guys 1. because he's so raw anyway and 2. the combo of pandemic and broken ankle years sure didn't help, not like E staal's and the other 2003s years in the ahl did anyway.

In the end until someone really grinds out a spreadsheet with the stats this is all just going to be a hypothesis that seems to hold pretty strongly and every time in the past someone has come up with 'counterexamples' they've generally only helped the illustration, so I'm all for keeping it going haha.

Almost everything you said here can be said about small players though too. Most players break out 2-3 years after their rookie season, not just big players. Huberdeau, Marchand, Gaudreau, Larkin, Bertuzzi, Pastrnak, Hughes, etc aren’t big guys who still took a couple years to be the players they are now.

The point was big players have contributed right away, not average at best 4th liners like Byfield has been.

No one has actually shown real data to suggest big players usually take longer to develop, it’s just a bunch of anecdotal evidence. There’s a ton of big players who never broke out, or played well early on as well.

 

[MBH]

I think the problem with that is the expectation is a #2 overall pick, in particular from the CHL, and especially with size/speed combo Byfield has is he contributes at a high level right away. Maybe that's unreasonable but it's definitely a cause for some of the criticism.

It's reasonable for some prospects. It wasn't reasonable for Byfield

He was drafted for potential. So much physical potential Size/Speed - the skill and the IQ, though, are far from a finished project.
No other top 20 prospect from the draft had a wider gulf between current skill and potential skill. He needed time.
COVID forced the kings' hand. They couldn't risk him staying in the OHL not knowing if they'd have games.
But I think Byfield should have stayed in the AHL all year this year.

 

[Osprey]

One could argue that if Byfield played more than 3rd-4th line minutes and got PP time he could possibly put up more points.

That's true, but that can be said for any 3rd/4th liner and isn't reason to promote them. With more ice time comes greater responsibilities and expectations, so you need to actually exceed expectations in your given role to make people believe that you can handle and succeed with a promotion. I don't think that Byfield is ready for the 2nd line and the increased competition that that would mean, and he fumbles and turns over the puck enough that giving him more PP time seems like it would be bad for the PP. Generally, you promote a player because it'll make the team better, not because it'll help the player's personal stats.

If a kid has exceeded expectations, it's Kaliyev, IMO. In fact, I was surprised to realize that his goal the other night was his 14th of the season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's true, but that can be said for any 3rd/4th liner and isn't reason to promote them. With more ice time comes greater responsibilities and expectations, so you need to actually exceed expectations in your given role to make people believe that you can handle and succeed with a promotion. I don't think that Byfield is ready for the 2nd line and the increased competition that that would mean, and he fumbles and turns over the puck enough that giving him more PP time seems like it would be bad for the PP. Generally, you promote a player because it'll make the team better, not because it'll help the player's personal stats.

If a kid has exceeded expectations, it's Kaliyev, IMO. In fact, I was surprised to realize that his goal the other night was his 14th of the season.

If there's nothing that screams "Kings usage" it's Kaliyev, your leading PP goal scorer rarely getting PP time

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Almost everything you said here can be said about small players though too. Most players break out 2-3 years after their rookie season, not just big players. Huberdeau, Marchand, Gaudreau, Larkin, Bertuzzi, Pastrnak, Hughes, etc aren’t big guys who still took a couple years to be the players they are now.

The point was big players have contributed right away, not average at best 4th liners like Byfield has been.

No one has actually shown real data to suggest big players usually take longer to develop, it’s just a bunch of anecdotal evidence. There’s a ton of big players who never broke out, or played well early on as well.

Fair, and I think all of it just begs the question of someone acutally doing 'the research.' I don't really know where to start but I think it would be interesting. I mean obviously you toss out the guys who don't make it, just like you would with the smaller players. I think the point, for what it's worth, is that while most prospects tend to start to hit at 20 and really break out at 21, the 'big guy' prospects break out once and mildly at 21, again at 23, and sometimes even further at 25 as they come into their own with control. Maybe point isn't the right word, but hypothesis based on the usual big guy examples. And I don't think i'ts a hard and fast rule with big guys any more than anyone else, but when you compare byfield to guys like Draisaitl, Wheeler, Thornton, etc, those patterns are pretty common, even if anecdotal, and with small sample size. VERY slow off the bat, slow boil into monster.

To circle back to the original point--I think most people have, and have ALWAYS, expected Byfield to be an example of a slow-boil prospect, and that's why all this early angst is a little premature.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Fair, and I think all of it just begs the question of someone acutally doing 'the research.' I don't really know where to start but I think it would be interesting. I mean obviously you toss out the guys who don't make it, just like you would with the smaller players. I think the point, for what it's worth, is that while most prospects tend to start to hit at 20 and really break out at 21, the 'big guy' prospects break out once and mildly at 21, again at 23, and sometimes even further at 25 as they come into their own with control. Maybe point isn't the right word, but hypothesis based on the usual big guy examples. And I don't think i'ts a hard and fast rule with big guys any more than anyone else, but when you compare byfield to guys like Draisaitl, Wheeler, Thornton, etc, those patterns are pretty common, even if anecdotal, and with small sample size. VERY slow off the bat, slow boil into monster.

To circle back to the original point--I think most people have, and have ALWAYS, expected Byfield to be an example of a slow-boil prospect, and that's why all this early angst is a little premature.

Sure it may seem that way, but that’s just picking and choosing certain players while ignoring others. I always see the “big players develop slower” statement so I’m surprise I can’t seem to find any actual studies on that. Would really love to see if that’s actually true.

I’m sure as hell not taking the time to do it myself though

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Sure it may seem that way, but that’s just picking and choosing certain players while ignoring others. I always see the “big players develop slower” statement so I’m surprise I can’t seem to find any actual studies on that. Would really love to see if that’s actually true.

I’m sure as hell not taking the time to do it myself though

Maybe a project for the offseason, heh.

Would be interesting to look at guys what, 6'3" and over? Vs. 'the field.' but I don't even see any good related studies on 'the field.' So maybe that would be the place to start to duplicate the methodology.

 

[Herby]

The Kings have Byfield in the best spot they have had him so far this year. He has a legit finisher on one wing in Kaliyev who is a comparable talent and a solid lunch pail guy on the other wing in Grundstrom who can play well along the boards, they all compliment each other nicely.

This is much better than with the declining Brown and AA (who he didn't connect super well with). Bonus is it allowed AA to move to the first line where he has been impactful and Brown to the 4th line where he has played well.

The Champagne Line (which must have been Cooks or Korbel) was a disaster for the Kings, Vilardi just isn't an NHL player and Byfield needed a winger with more skill than Kupari.

I am optimistic that this line may be able to score some goals for the Kings vs. Edmonton, which they will obviously need if they want to have a chance to advance.

 

[DollardStLaurent]

Two sides of the discussion
1. He should have remained in the AHL to get minutes and add to his confidence.
2. He should play in the NHL to learn from Kopitar and other experienced Centers.

I've heard both sides of the discussion and we'll never know who is correct.
I do know that rushing a player from the CHL to the NHL, in most cases, is a mistake. They are below par because they don't play against men are are lacking defensively. I'd prefer a player learning his trade in Europe or in college. Just my opinion.

 

[Sol]

He’s looking fine now. He shoots wide too often for my liking and flubs easy tap ins which grates me. But I genuinely believe the Franklin kids twig that he’s using is his problem

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

FWIW someone on our forum caught that he's using a different stick now, too, and suggested it looks longer. I can't tell on that part, I don't think it is, but it does look like the new model Sherwood Code (shrug on how difference the performance could be).

 

[Max McBolt]

Sure it may seem that way, but that’s just picking and choosing certain players while ignoring others. I always see the “big players develop slower” statement so I’m surprise I can’t seem to find any actual studies on that. Would really love to see if that’s actually true.

I’m sure as hell not taking the time to do it myself though

Maybe a project for the offseason, heh.

Would be interesting to look at guys what, 6'3" and over? Vs. 'the field.' but I don't even see any good related studies on 'the field.' So maybe that would be the place to start to duplicate the methodology.

Fantasy Hockey guru "Dobber" has developed a formula to calculate players Breakout Threshold.

You can probably find informations about it online on his free stuff, but it is well explained in the yearly Fantasy guides he sell.

If I remember correctly he had first used all the stats from every NHL players going back +50 years and figured out that the majority of players' breakout happened on average on their 4th season playing in the NHL.


Over the years he's refined his formula with some help from his community to arrive at something that was more accurate :

- An average-sized player (between 5'10 and 6'2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) will start to break through after 200 regular season games.

-Smaller-sized (less than 5'10 / 171) AND Bigger-size players (more than 6'2 / 214) need 400 NHL regular season games.


This proved to be somewhat accurate in like 70-75% of players with them breaking out in some ways around those two threshold.

It is an average and not an exact science as it can happen around game 355 for some players or game 445 for some others. It is harder to predict if the 6'2 / 6'3 players will follow the 200 or 400 GP paths.
And depending on talent players break out in different ways than others.

I do a lot of winning in Dynasty Fantasy Hockey leagues and one of the main rule I follow is to never quit on a prospect before he pass his Breakout Threshold to see if he's got another gear.

This is why I didn't quit on Robert Thomas last year, and this is why I won't quit on Filip Zadina this year.
This is also why I acquired Noah Hanifin for cheap last offseason while he was sitting at 436 GP thinking he hadn't hit his BT yet.

Sean Couturier didn't have elite production before his 7th NHL season after 416 GP and I expect the same kind of timeline for Quinton Byfield.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Fantasy Hockey guru "Dobber" has developed a formula to calculate players Breakout Threshold.

You can probably find informations about it online on his free stuff, but it is well explained in the yearly Fantasy guides he sell.

If I remember correctly he had first used all the stats from every NHL players going back +50 years and figured out that the majority of players' breakout happened at their 4th season playing in the NHL.


Over the years he's refined his formula with some help from his community to arrive at something that was more accurate :

- An average-sized player (between 5'10 and 6'2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) will start to break through after 200 regular season games.

-Smaller-sized (less than 5'10 / 171) AND Bigger-size players (more than 6'2 / 214) need 400 NHL regular season games.


This proved to be somewhat accurate in like 70-75% of players with them breaking out in some ways around those two threshold.

It is an average and not an exact science as it can happen around game 355 for some players or game 445 for some others. It is harder to predict if the 6'2 / 6'3 players will follow the 200 or 400 GP paths.
And depending on talent players break out in different ways than others.

I do a lot of winning in Dynasty Fantasy Hockey leagues and one of the main rule I follow is to never quit on a prospect before he pass his Breakout Threshold to see if they have another gear.

This is why I didn't quit on Robert Thomas last year, and this is why I won't quit on Filip Zadina this year.
This is also why I acquired Noah Hanifin for cheap last offseason while he was sitting at 436 GP thinking he hadn't hit his BT yet.

Sean Couturier didn't have elite production before his 7th NHL season, after having played 416 GP and I expect the same kind of timeline for Quinton Byfield.

This is fantastic--thanks for the share!
I had to figure SOMEONE out there had done the homework!

 

[nbwingsfan]

Fantasy Hockey guru "Dobber" has developed a formula to calculate players Breakout Threshold.

You can probably find informations about it online on his free stuff, but it is well explained in the yearly Fantasy guides he sell.

If I remember correctly he had first used all the stats from every NHL players going back +50 years and figured out that the majority of players' breakout happened on average on their 4th season playing in the NHL.


Over the years he's refined his formula with some help from his community to arrive at something that was more accurate :

- An average-sized player (between 5'10 and 6'2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) will start to break through after 200 regular season games.

-Smaller-sized (less than 5'10 / 171) AND Bigger-size players (more than 6'2 / 214) need 400 NHL regular season games.


This proved to be somewhat accurate in like 70-75% of players with them breaking out in some ways around those two threshold.

It is an average and not an exact science as it can happen around game 355 for some players or game 445 for some others. It is harder to predict if the 6'2 / 6'3 players will follow the 200 or 400 GP paths.
And depending on talent players break out in different ways than others.

I do a lot of winning in Dynasty Fantasy Hockey leagues and one of the main rule I follow is to never quit on a prospect before he pass his Breakout Threshold to see if he's got another gear.

This is why I didn't quit on Robert Thomas last year, and this is why I won't quit on Filip Zadina this year.
This is also why I acquired Noah Hanifin for cheap last offseason while he was sitting at 436 GP thinking he hadn't hit his BT yet.

Sean Couturier didn't have elite production before his 7th NHL season after 416 GP and I expect the same kind of timeline for Quinton Byfield.

Good info to know! Surprised small players seem to follow the same formula, would of thought they’d be given up on earlier by their teams due to having a tougher time playing the low grinder minutes you can hide big players on if they aren’t performing.

 

[BigKing]

I was going to say that Trevor Moore would be an outlier to the Dobber System but, holy shit, he's actually 5'10" and 185 pounds so he fits the 200 game projection and is currently now at 203 career games.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

He really should be in the AHL playing 20-25 minutes a game, have the puck on his stick a lot and be a key part of Ontario's playoff run.

Right now, he's just surviving for the most part in the NHL. It's not what you want your highly touted prospect to be doing.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

He has not looked good in tonight's game. Doesn't seem NHL ready.

 

[Panthaz89]

He's been abysmal in the playoff games from what I've seen.

 

[Fatass]

He's been abysmal in the playoff games from what I've seen.

Yup. He’s been hurting his team. Don’t know if the King’s have a better option though. Just limit his minutes and only start him in the O-zone.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

FWIW someone on our forum caught that he's using a different stick now, too, and suggested it looks longer. I can't tell on that part, I don't think it is, but it does look like the new model Sherwood Code (shrug on how difference the performance could be).

the new CODE stick

 

[bsu]

If the reports of him using a longer stick by Racoon Jesus are true, he should go back to the short one... He was putrid last night.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The kids need to be eased in for the season, give them limited minutes.
We're sinking in the standings, limit their minutes and play the vets.
We're rising in the standings, limit their minutes and play the vets.
Oh these are basically playoff games, every point matters, limit their minutes and play the vets.
The kids aren't ready for the playoffs....

GEE I f***ING WONDER